08 Season Win Shares Look #1

Well its 13:15 and still no Johan trade to the Sox. What's happening, you've got me! The latest information from the Globe and the Herald is that the Twins are approaching other teams, Mets, Angels and Dodgers (losers in the Marlin trades) to see if they can get anything better or maybe just to see if this is the best that they can get for Santana. I still think that unless the MFY's up the ante and add both Hughes and Kennedy this deal will get done. However, it is possible that the Twins may say, forget it, we will wait until the trade deadline and if we are out of contention we make a deal then. I really think that would be unlikely though since they know that he is leaving and they will want to get something for him. Will have to see. WEEI is saying that the Star Ledger has the Twins and Sox still working on a deal though at 1:29 p.m.

Still, the team is starting to take shape so I thought I would do the first Win Share look at the team for the 2008 season. So, here goes!!!

Pos.	Player	07 WS	CWS	3 yr Avg.	4 yr Avg.	Projected
DH	Ortiz	29	166	29.667	28.5	30
1b	Youkilis	20	53	15	13.25	21
2b	Pedroia	19	19	----	----	19
3b	Lowell	24	169	17	19.25	20
SS	Lugo	12	110	16.333	17.25	13
LF	Ramirez	15	354	26	26.25	22
CF	Ellsbury	6	6	----	----	15
RF	Drew	12	161	15.333	20	20
C	Varitek	15	122	14	15.25	14
SP1	Beckett	19	73	15	13.5	17
Sp2	Matsuzaka	12	12	----	----	12
Sp3	Schilling	10	254	10	13	12
Sp4	Lester	4	9	----	----	8
Sp5	Wakefield	10	154	11	10.25	10
Closer	Papelbon	12	34	11.333	----	15
Rel1	Okajima	10	10	----	----	8
Rel2	Delcarmen	5	9	3	----	4
Rel3	Timlin	4	120	7.667	7.25	3
Rel4	Tavarez	4	76	4.667	5.5	5
Rel5	Snyder	3	7	1	1.75	3
Rel6	Donnelly	2	37	4.667	4.75	3
4th Of	Crisp	16	71	15.667	15.25	10
B C	?????
M I F	Cora	4	70	4.33	7.5	5
C I F	?????
Totals		267	2096	221.664	218.5	289

Just looking at this right now there are only two slots left to be filled, the back up catcher and a back up infielder for the corners (though Cora can play and has played at 3rd). I also included Donnelly, but it is possible that he will not be available this coming year, of course he basically is only worth 1 more win in this scenario, so if he doesn't play, well no big loss and an easy replacement should be available. In fact if you look at THT's Win Shares for last year, you will see a lot of players that will give you just 3 win shares just in the AL, if you add NL well there are even more out there.

The second thing to look at, if you assume the 3 win shares equals one win, then this team is already at 96 wins in the projected and we have two more spots to fill. That looks good for the team.

Win Shares III

Recapping, we have now signed J.D., Lugo, Dice, Donelly, Romero and Mirabelli. So lets take a look at how our win shares are now looking:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	15	SP	Schilling	14
1b	Youkilis	11	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	19	SP	Wakefield	10
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon	12 *
2b	Pedroia	15 **	SP	Matsuzaka	12 *
LF	Rameriz	30	RP	Timlin	8
CF	Crisp	15	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	23	RP	DelCarmen	2
DH	Ortiz	28
1 / 3b	Hinske	9	RP	Donnelly	6
2b / ss	Cora	9	RP	Romero	4
OF	Wily Mo	9	RP	Okajami	6 ***
C	Mirabelli	5	RP	Unknown
	Totals	162			92

Using the 3 year average of all players unless otherwise noted.

* Average of top 90 starting pitchers over the last 3 years.
** Average of top 30 starting 2B over the last 3 years.
*** Average of top 150 relief pitchers for last 3 years.

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. This totals 254 right now which is
31 short of the expected goal. Of course we do not have a closer which would push us closer to the magic number.

All win share information determined from The Hardball Times.

The only problem is that if you were to take a look at the top Win Shares for closers over the last 3 years you will see that the leaders have posted 17 (lidge), 16 (rivera) and 18 (papelbon). The average of the top 30 is only 11.5 shares. Obviously, no matter who we get as a closer would leave us short by either 14 or 20 to reach this magic number. Not looking good for 95 wins.

Revisting Win Shares 2

Well, now that Drew and Lugo have signed its time to revist the win shares for this team. The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	13	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
2b	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	171			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 221, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 257.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

Previously we had Loretta with 16 shares, now we have Lugo at 13 shares.

Think Bronson Arroyo will enjoy the new double play combination behind him this year? I still can't believe that the best double play combo I have ever seen play for the Sox lasted only one year.

Revisting Win Shares

Previously we discussed win budgeting for the Red Sox here, in this post I want to revisit that concept now that we are seeing some movement in the free agent market. I hope that Theo has Loretta in his back pocket, because I don't think that we will be able to sign Lugo (I expect the Mets to sign him and move him to second). I also don't think that Manny will get traded since the teams that should be interested in him are going out of their minds overpaying the Gary Mathews etc.

The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
2b	Loretta	16	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
SS	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	174			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 224, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 260.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

So, what we need assuming we get J.D. Drew are 4 more pitchers and a back up catcher. If we just average 5 w.s. per player the Sox would be at 285 giving us the 95 wins.

Win Budgeting?

An interesting post about having a team budget their salary around expected wins (h/t baseball musings). Personally, I disagree about his start point for the figures (54 wins, 54 losses and the rest depends on the players), but I like the 2 million per win figure.

Now, if we were to follow the reasoning laid out by U.S.S. Mariner, then a logical process for Theo would be to figure up the teams present win shares, then subtract them from the goal of 95 wins. Using the 2 million per win he could then base his free agent acquisitions etc to build a team. Will have to think about this but I think that Dave is right in his reasoning and this could be an interesting way to follow the trades this year.

Just a real quick look at the present starters, remembering that 95 wins equals a total of 285 win shares:

Pos.	Player	06 WS
1b	Youkilis	22
2b	Loretta	16
3b	Lowell	18
C	Varitek	8
DH	Ortiz	29
LF	Ramirez	29
CF	Crisp	10
RF	Pena	8
SP	Schilling	16
SP	Beckett	12
SP	Wakefield	7

These 12 players total 175 win shares, which would leave them 110 shares short. The question is how good do we expect Papelbon to be as a starter. I would put him in the Beckett category and for rounding sakes will say 10. Wakefield has had 8 shares, 16 shares and 7 shares the last three years. So let us put him at 10 also, this now leaves us 97 short.

Tavarez has averaged 6 the last 3 years, Timlin has averaged 8 in the same time period but 2005 he spent the last 2 months as the closer so lets go with 6 for him in our computations. DeLcarmen had 1 in 05 and 3 in 06. Will he improve? I say yes so let's go for 5. These 3 will leave us 80 short with a total of 16 of our 25 man squad supplying points.

As you can see we can easily reach that win share total of 285 needed for 95 wins without really killing the payroll. From now on, I think that I will use the Win Shares for my basis on approving or hissing future moves made by Theo this year.

All win share information found at The Hardball Times.