Is 13 million too much?

Well, there has been a lot of talk about Schilling on WEEI lately. Most of the talk seems to be how Curt faded down the stretch / second half of the year as to why the Sox have decided to not offer him an extension at this time. The question then becomes did Curt fade down the stretch? If he did fade, is there a reason for this fade? Does this mean that Curt is finished, or not worth 13 million for the 2008 year? More importanlty, how would or should we determine the value of Curt for last year and in the future?

First lets take a look at the numbers for #38. Last year overall Curt was 15 and 7 with a 3.97 ERA in 31 starts. His whip was a pretty decent 1.22 6th in the AL and 13th overall. His Win total was tied for 14th in the AL and 20th overall. The 3.97 ERA was the 13th best in the AL for starters and 28th overall. His 204 innings pitched was tied for 15th in the AL and 37th overall. The 31 starts placed him tied for 25th in the AL and tied for 56th overall. His 183 k's was the 5th best in the AL and 12th best overall. The 19 Quality starts were tied for 10th and 24th overall. His ratio of K's to BB's was the best overall (6.54). The k/9 ratio of 8.07 was the 5th best and 14th best.

All and all decent numbers for the Schill for the year but what about his fade at the end of the year. There are two ways to approach this, 1) before and after the All star break or first 81 games and last 81 games.

Schilling Stats before All Star game

League	Wins	GS	ERA	IP	WHIP	K's	K / BB	K /9	W pct
AL	T 4	T 1	71 *	4	35 *	3 *	5 *	59 *	T 41 *
Overall	T 6	T 2	153 *	7	56 *	81 *	7 *	134 *	79 *
Value	10	19	3.60	127.1	1.09	115	7.67	8.13	.77

* includes relievers

Schilling Stats after All Star game

League	Wins	GS	ERA	IP	WHIP	K's	K / BB	K /9	W pct
AL	T 27	T 48	126 *	T 38	121 *	T 17 *	15 *	63 *	T 87 *
Overall	T 65	T 100	273 *	T 86	261 *	T 39 *	31 *	152 *	T 165 *
Value	5	12	4.58	76.2	1.42	68	5.23	7.98	.556

* includes relievers

Yep, looking at these numbers it is obvious that he had a significant decline in the second half.
Now the question appears to be is there a reason for this decline.

Lets look at who he faced in the first half of the season: Texas, Baltimore (3), Seattle, Tampa Bay (4), Cleveland, Yankees (3), Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Mets, and the White Sox. 19 starts against 12 teams. 8 of these 19 starts were against teams that were 500 or greater last year. His record against these teams were 3 and 1. That is pretty good record against winning teams and a better record against the losers.

The second half he faced Oakland (3), Texas, Anaheim, Tampa Bay (2), KC, Detroit, Yankees, Seattle and Minnesota in his 12 starts. That's 9 teams total and only 4 of the teams had losing records. Of the 12 starts 7 were against winning teams. His record against the winning teams was 2 and 2.

Realistically, shouldn't we expect him to do worse the second half? It should be noted that almost 1/3 of his starts in the first half were ND's. The bullpen also blew 2 games in the first half and 2 games in the second half. If the pen had not failed him the second half his record would have been 7 and 4 and no one would be talking about a fade in the second half.

Lets compare his winning percentage to the team percentage:

1st half team went 53 - 33 for a .612, his percentage was .769
2nd half team went 33 - 43 for a .434, his percentage was .556

Both halves he exceeded the team percentage by a significant margin.

I think 13 million extension would have been perfect for Schilling. If you were worried about age, injury etc. you could have built that into his contract. In my opinion not tendering him an offer was horses***. Here's hoping he goes 22 and 4 and tells Larry to kiss his a** goodbye at the end of the year.

Schilling Links

Update: Cursed To First has the SOSH post by Schilling posted. Worth a good read (original thread is here.)

Thought that I would add some of the Schilling links in one spot from the usual sources. First off we have Bradford's take here and here, then the Herald's take and last but not least the globe's takes here, here, and here.

As for me I am now settling into the good-bye tour of Schilling. Everybody is accusing him of being a jackass for deciding to go ahead and play one more year as if none of them ever changed their minds about something, but the plain fact is that next year he will be no worse than the #3 starter for this club and when people like Meche are getting 11 million plus then 13 million is a steal. What I am hoping for is that Curt wins his first 8 or so wins and when Theo and them come around saying hey, about that contract do you want to talk, he laughs and walks away. As for the pin stripes, ain't ever going to happen, the Mets maybe, but the Yankees? Not a chance.

I have also added a new site to the Freaking Links, Red Sox 24/7. It appears to be a solid site and I look forward to reading them this year, so stop by and tell them the peace brigade sent you.

Am working on doing a review of his work last year, but as usual, I have pulled out so much information that I am trying to get my thoughts wrapped around his work last year, one quick thing I noticed though was that almost half of his no decisions had blown saves, would Theo and them have been hesitating if Schilling had won 19 games last year?

Blog Roll Updates

Well, I just finished updating and arranging the blog links in the side bar. Basically, I moved all of the sports related up behind the Dilbert Blog. The man with the funny tie will always be number one and of course I moved the Joy of Sox up since that is a blog that has always supported me. Just call it my version of Spring Cleaning here at Peace, Love and Sox.

Bradford on baseball is looking like a good place to start this year on the Sox front, I like the way he is trying to answer questions placed in his comments. The rest of the crew of blogs that I link are as always on top of their game, let us hope that the Sox will follow suit this year.

Spring 2007

Well, its good to see that the team has reported to sunny Florida and is ready to take on the world of photographers as it gets ready for the 2007 season. Of course this being the Red Sox the circus has already started.

1) we have the local media in arms about the Matsuzaka treatment (see Shaughnessy, Callahan etal).
2) WEEI has already dedicated time to the Manny situation (see the Big Show).
3) Tito has already had to tell the media to shut up (see publicist / Tavarez).
4) The blogs and media has decided that Schilling is an overweight jerk who should just shut up and pitch (see boston dirt dogs).
5) Papelbon will be the closer for 2007 season (see boston.com blog)

Yep its spring and all things are eternal.

First off I agree with Glenn Ordway, if Matsuzuka goes 16 and 11 with a 5.01 ERA that is not a disappointment. The Japanese league is at best on a par with the National League, but is more likely below the National and at worst on a par with the AAA leagues. To expect Matsuzaka to be better than Beckett in his first year in the AL east is not rational. Oh, lets not forget one other thing, he is not a 100 million dollar pitcher, do not include the posting fee with his salary when you talk about this young pitcher.

The Manny not showing up til 1 of March falls into the "are we surprised category". I'll just grind my teeth about the Manny fawning and will wish that Jim Rice could impart some DNA to this future Hall of Famer.

Tito will always protect his players in the press, end of story.

Schilling may be overweight and opinionated, but when he takes the ball in 2007 he will give this team everything he has and always will be one of the top pitchers in this league. Sign him to a one year extension with an option for 2009 and be done with this guy until the season starts.

Papelbon may end up being the closer, but that is up to the Doctors. Personally, I say trot him out there every five days and mark a W in the record.

Stealing from Ian at Brownie points I make the following predictions:

How many games will the Red Sox win this year? 95
How many postseason games will the Red Sox win this year? 6
How many games will Matsuzaka win this year? 16
Who will lead the Red Sox in wins this year? Schilling
Who will lead the Red Sox in saves this year? Pinero
How many games will J.D. Drew play this year? 134
How many homers will David Ortiz hit this year? 44
Who will win the American League MVP? A-Rod
Who will win the National League MVP? Howard
Who will win the American League Cy Young Award? Kazmir
Who will win the National League Cy Young Award? Lowe
Who will win the AL East? Yankees
Who will win the AL Central? Tigers
Who will win the AL West? Angels
Who will win the AL wild card? Red Sox
Who will win the NL East? Mets
Who will win the NL Central? Cardinals
Who will win the NL West? Dodgers
Who will win the NL Wild Card? Phillies
Who will win the AL pennant? Yankees
Who will win the NL pennant? Mets
Who will win the World Series? Mets

Super Bowl XLI

Well, the game is almost here. I just want a good game or a Colt blow out so that there is no agnst. After all of the Manning stories this week, if you didn't hate him before you probably do now. Still, as I have stated before, I hope he gets the monkey off his back today. One Marino career in my lifetime is quite enough thank you.

3 weeks

Q: Where you been you sluggard?

A: Well, being the complete nerd that I am, I decided to break out the old playstation and update the teams to see how 2007 might look from a gaming stand point. So, far the results have been mixed but after countless games I show the Sox winning as few as 82 games (Varitek and Lowell out for over 1/2 of the season) to as many as 103 games (no significant injuries).

Q: So what do you think of the Schilling situation?

A: This is a no brainer and as I stated on Seths blog, at the forum and other venues just give him the money. I don't think that Curt will have any problem with injury clauses and if you can give a mutual option to Timmy then you can certainly give one to Curt and yes I still remember the bloody sock.

Q: Are you happy to see the Colts in the Super Bowl?

A: Not sure if you noticed but I didn't make picks (on the blog anyway) on the conference championship games (though I thought the snow would do in the Saints, see Tampa Bay - history) and figured the Patriots - Colts game would be a toss up. If the Cowboys aren't in it I usually root for players and I like Peyton and I really don't want to see another Marino like career for any QB. What I don't understand is those Pats fans who are rooting against the Colts. It seems to me like you would want the Colts to win so that you could say, see if we had just beaten them we would be celebrating our 4th championship.

Thats all for now. Will continue to run sims and will let you know when we are done.

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made

With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made

With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

HOF III - Rice

Well, was working on this before the hall of fame ballots came out. Had saved it to my draft files because I was getting blurry eyed from looking at the numbers. My problem was that I kept on noticing when I was looking at Jim's career that another Red Sox player kept popping up in the equation, a person who is not considered a HOFer. As I sat on this news I found a post about this individual and Mr. Rice. Since he says it better than I could possibly do I suggest you go there and see why he will probably not be in the hall of fame. This would be the classic slippery slope in my opinion.

This time we are going to look at the reasons why Jim Rice should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Previous posts HOF I (David Wells) and HOF II (Curt Schilling).

As usual we start our post by looking at Rice's comparable players list:

1. Orlando Cepeda (HOFer)
2. Andres Galarraga
3. Ellis Burks
4. Duke Snider (HOFer)
5. Joe Carter - possible
6. Dave Parker
7. Billy Williams (HOFer)
8. Luis Gonzalez
9. Willie Stargell (HOFer)
10. Chili Davis

4 HOFers and one possible, not a bad beginning to promote his inclusion into the hall. So on to the second part of this advocacy.

Mr. Rice's career started with 24 games in 1974 and ended with 56 games in 1989. 16 years he played for the Sox playing in 1 World Series (he missed the 75 series due to injury). His first full year with the Sox was in 1975 where he played in 144 games batting .309 with 22 HR's and 102 RBI's and scored 92 runs. I've always wondered what might have been in that 75 series if Rice hadn't been hurt.

If we look at the 14 full seasons that he played we see that he started 1991 games playing in 2009. His batting average was an even .300, OBA of .354, Slugging of .507, OPS of .862 hitting 378 Home runs, scoring 1,221 runs and knocking in 1,410 runs.

2007 NFL playoffs RD 1

Hmmm, went 15 - 17 in the last two weeks of the season (125 - 131 overall), so my picks are definitely not something to take to the bank. The question is will the success of the underdogs in the regular season continue in the playoffs?

Heres my picks anyway:

• Colts beat the Chiefs 35 - 31.
• Cowboys vs Seahawks - not gonna do it, I can't even pull a castanza here. I have picked for the Cowboys and lost, picked against and lost this year. I just can't figure out my favorite team. Go Cowboys but I refuse to get off the fence on this game.
• Patriots beat the Jets 21 - 18.
• Giants beat the Eagles - 24 - 17 (give me a break Garcia?)

Have a good weekend.

HOF II - Schilling

The second look at how present or former Red Sox players stand as far as HOF possibilities. This time we are going to look at #38. HOF I is found here.

First lets look at comparable players:
Kevin Brown - Not a HOFer
Bob Welch - Not a HOFer
Orel Hershiser - Not a HOFer
Dazzy Vance - HOF
Mike Mussina - Possible HOF
David Cone - Not a HOFer
Milt Pappas - Not a HOFer
Lew Burdette - Not a HOFer
Don Drysdale - HOF
John Smoltz - Definite HOF

Out of ten you have 2 in the hall, 1 will be in the Hall and a possible Hall of Famer. Top of the line and he is off to a good start. So lets look at other criteria.

As I have said before, 10 year and 5 year comparisons can show some good stats to kick around in the bar. Lets look at his best ten year period:

1997 - 2006

Won 155 - lost 86 for a .643 % in 2121+ innings with a 3.41 ERA. The Top 10 in wins during that time period were:

1. Randy Johnson - 176 and 83 in 2277+ innings with a 3.01 ERA.
2. Greg Maddux - 168 and 99 in 2250+ innings with a 3.28 ERA
3. Pedro - 158 and 61 in 1974+ innings with a 2.61 ERA
4. Clemens - 156 and 67 in 2041+ innings with a 3.17 ERA
5. Schilling
6. Pettitte - 153 and 87 in 1916+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
7. Glavine - 151 and 99 in 2193+ innings with a 3.47 ERA
8. Mussina - 149 and 93 in 2072+ innings with a 3.67 ERA
9. Moyer - 144 and 87 in 2073+ innings with a 4.00 ERA
10. Bartolo Colon - 140 and 97 in 1876 innings with a 3.98 ERA

Curt is 5th in wins during that period, 7th in win % (minimum 100 wins), 7th in shut outs (minimum 100 wins), 5th in innings pitched (minimum 100 wins), 3rd in K's (minimum 100 wins), 6th in ERA and 3rd in K/9 (minimum 100 wins).

Look at the 4 people ahead of him in wins during those ten years. Each one is a certain HOF, Schilling is probably the demarcation line during that time period. Lets now look at his best 5 year period:

1998-2002

Schillings numbers are 89 wins 44 losses in 1175+ innings with a 3.33 ERA and a .656 Winning percentage. The top 10 in wins during that time were:

1. Randy Johnson - 100 and 38 in 1274+innings with a 2.63 ERA.
2. Greg Maddux - 89 and 44 in 1152 innings with a 2.88 ERA.
3. Tom Glavine - 89 and 44 in 1148+ innings with a 3.31 ERA.
4. Pedro - 87 and 24 in 980 innings with a 2.27 ERA.
5. Curt
6. Bartolo Colon - 81 and 42 in 1052+ innings with a 3.69 ERA.
7. Roger Clemens - 80 and 33 in 1027 innings with a 3.70 ERA.
8. David Wells - 79 and 36 in 982+ innings with a 4.10 ERA.
9. Aaron Sele - 77 and 44 in 1004+ innings with a 4.37 ERA.
10. Mussina - 77 and 53 in 1091+ innings with a 3.59 ERA.

Looking at this you see in order HOFer, HOFer, possible HOFer (most likely will win 300 games), Curt, not a HOFer, HOFer, not a HOFer, not a HOFer and a possible HOFer. 4 future inductees and 2 possible inductees. This is again a good thing for Curt's chances. Further more he is tied for sixth in Shut outs, 3rd in K's, 6th in ERA and 3rd in K's per 9. All of this makes it a good possibility that he will be inducted into the Hall.

Career wise lets look at the leader boards from 1997 to 2004 made the All Star game. In 2001 and 2002 #10 in MVP voting. In 1997 #4 in Cy Young voting and in 2001, 2002 and 2004 2nd in Cy Young. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 of era 8 of the 9 years (2000 only year not). League wins lead in 2001 and 2004, was second in 2002 and 5th in 1997. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 in WHIP, and led in 1992 and was 6th in 2006. Presently is 3rd among active players and 40th all time. In 1993, 1997 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top 10 in BB's / 9 IP leading in 2002 and 2006. K's / 9IP in 1993, 1996 - 1999, 2001 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top ten and career is 12th all time. He has 3015 K's all time which is 4th among active pitchers and 14th all time. K's to walks was 5th in 1993 and from 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 leading in the years 2001 - 2004 and led in 2006 and is 2 all time. Adjusted ERA is 12th active and 48th all time.

Baseball reference has a black-ink test which has Curt's rating at 42 (average HOF is 40), the gray-ink test where he has a rating of 204 (average HOF is 185), HOF Standards has a rating of 46 (average HOF is 50) and HOF monitor rating of 167 (Likely HOFer is >100). His overall rank in these categories is 33rd, 34th, 48th and 36th.

So, what does this all mean? A very close call on the HOF but should make it. What will push him over the top? How about these facts - the 2001 World series where he started 3 games with a 1 - 0 record, pitching 21+ innings with 26 K's, 2 BB's and a sparkling 1.69 ERA to share MVP with Randy Johnson. 2004 ALCS bloody sock game (6) where he went 7 innings giving up 1 ER on a HR with 4 k's and no BB's. These are the type of games that stick in voters minds, coming up big on the big stage can take a player from possible to Hall of fame stature.

Overall in the playoffs Curt is 8 and 2 in 15 games with a sparkling 2.06 ERA. He struck out 104 batters and only walked 22 in those games in 109+ innings. That is the quintessential definition of big game player.

2007 Jan 1 Bowl Games

While we wait patiently for the game of the day (hint it stars a RB by the name of McFadden) , figured that I would give you my picks of today's bowls.

First in the Outback I have Tennessee whipping Penn State. SEC vs Big 10, I'll go with the stronger conference.

Cotton bowl we have Auburn vs Nebraska, and while Nebraska has improved over the last 2 years I think that Auburn is the much better team. The only worry is that Auburn tends to lose these types of games. Still, Auburn beats Nebraska.

Gator bowl has West Virginia vs Georgia Tech. Tech has improved but get real, the ACC has become an embarrassment when it comes to football. West Virginia continues to make the Big East look good by running over the rambling wreck.

Arkansas vs Wisconsin in the Capitol one bowl (didn't this use to be the tangerine bowl?) - toss up but my heart says go hogs and whips the badgers proving that the Big Ten is really a two team conference.

Rose bowl - USC goes out and whips Michigan.

Boise State crashed the BSC series this year by getting an invite to the Fiesta bowl and that is good for them, but OU wants to prove that if not for a ridiculous call at the end of the Oregon game they would be playing Ohio State. I hope it is close but I expect OU to win.

Reasons Not To Gamble

So come down to the last day of the regular season, Cowboys needed to win to win the division with an eagles loss. Well, the boys an eleven point favorite lose by 8 making the eagles game insignificant so the back ups play and they lose to Atlanta. That is why I only play games not bet on Football. You just never know. Oh, yeah, I picked the Bears to beat Green Bay, well, of course that isn't going to happen (right now I feel like Charlie Brown).

Still, even if I lose the Bears game I will be 8 games under .500 and still be in the top 80% of those playing the Pigskin Pick'em game at ESPN. com. That is why only suckers bet on outcomes they don't control.

aaaargh II

Sometimes its not good being a Cowboys fan. 2 Turnovers lead to 14 points and they lose by 6. Aaaaaargh.

Australia celebrates 2007

Remember, its almost here. Have a good evening and if you must drink (and I must), remember friends don't let friends drive drunk.

Hall Of Fame I - David Wells

Earlier today I had a discussion with one of my co-workers about Hall of Fame Worthiness of former Red Sox players and Randy Johnson. Specifically we discussed Jim Rice, Manny, Curt Schilling, and David Wells.

My first thought is Rice definitely should be in the hall, Manny will be a first ballot electee and the other two are no go's. Randy Johnson will also be a first ballot electee. Other Red Sox players or ex players that are coming up on their retirements that will be elected are Pedro, possibly Nomar, David Ortiz if he continues his output for 3 to 4 more years will be and of course the elephant in the room Roger.

Of course I decided to go look at some of the numbers to see if I can justify their exclusion or their elections.

First lets look at Wells - he has pitched for 20 years in the majors with a 230 wins and 148 losses for a .608 winning percentage. Now I am one of those who says 300 wins you are in, less than 300 you better be special. Wells is not special, he had only one year where he has won 20, one year where he won 19, and one year where he won 18. Career ERA is 4.07 which does compare favorably with league era of 4.45.

If you look at his comparable pitchers you will find listed -

1. Jamie Moyer - not a HOFer
2. Kenny Rogers - not a HOFer
3. Mike Mussina - Possible HOFer
4. Schilling - not a HOFer
5. Kevin Brown - not a HOFer
6. Herb Pennock - HOF
7. Lew Burdette - not a HOFer
8. Bob Welch - not a HOFer
9. Freddie Fitzsimmons - not a HOFer
10. Carl Hubbell - HOF

So out of 10 comparable pitchers you have 2 HOF and 1 possible HOF. I like David but so far, not Hall of Fame Material.

Now usually you can make a case by saying over a 5 or 10 year period did he dominate the league?. Lets look at his best 10 year period, in wins:

1995 - 2004
Won 149 - Lost 83 (.642 %), in 2036 + innings with a ERA of 4.11. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 174 - 83 in 2270+ innings with a 2.89 ERA
2. Johnson - 165 - 66 in 2122+ innings with a 2.7 ERA
3. Pedro - 161 - 65 in 2036+ innings with a 2.67 ERA
4. Mussina - 159 - 98 in 2160+ innings with a 3.72 ERA
   
5. Clemens - 156 - 71 in 2099+ innings with a 3.29 ERA
6. Pettitte - 155 - 82 in 1875+ innings with a 3.94 ERA
7. Glavine - 154 - 96 in 2218 innings with a 3.34 ERA
   
8. Wells
   
9. Schilling - 148 - 86 in 2123+ innings with a 3.25 ERA
10. Moyer 141 - 75 in 1938+ innings with a 4.01 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 7th in percentage (minimum 100 wins), 6th in Shutouts (minimum 100 wins), and 18th in ERA (minimum 100 wins).

So far, a top tier pitcher but HOF? I say no!

Lets look at his best 5 year period, in wins:

1996 - 2000
Won 82 - Lost 46 (.641 %), in 1118 innings with a ERA of 4.36. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 90 - 42 in 1197+ innings with a 2.73 ERA
2. Pedro - 90 - 36 in 1122 innings with a 2.45 ERA
3. Pettitte - 88 - 45 in 1074 innings with a 3.96 ERA
4. Glavine - 84 - 43 in 1179+ innings with a 3.19 ERA
5. Brown - 82 - 41 in 1209+ innings with a 2.51 ERA
   
6. Wells
7. Johnson - 80 - 31 in 1039 innings with a 2.74 ERA
8. Clemens - 78 - 44 in 1133+ innings with a 3.23 ERA
9. Neagle - 76 - 39 in 985+ innings with a 3.69 ERA
10. Mussina - 76 - 51 in 1115+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 10th in percentage (minimum 50 wins), 5th in Shutouts (minimum 50 wins), and 36th in ERA (minimum 50 wins).

Again a top tier Pitcher but not HOF.

Update: Bill James agrees with me. Go here.

Merry Christmas

From our house to your puter.

Thursday night football

Green Bay 28 - Minnesota 17.

NFL - Week 15

Well, it is time for the week 15 of the NFL picks. Last week I went 6 and 10 again, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 15 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Seattle	- 9 1/2	San Fran.	San Fran.	Seattle	Sea 14 - SF 24
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Atlanta	Dallas	Atlanta	Dal 38 - Atl 28
Minnesota	- 3 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Minnesota	Min 13 - NY 26
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jacksonville	Jac 17 - Ten 24
Green Bay	- 4 1/2	Detroit	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 17 - Det 9
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Chicago	Chi 34 - TB 31
New Orleans	- 9 1/2	Washington	Washington	Washington	NO 10 - Was 16
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Carolina	Pittsburgh	Carolina	Pit 37 - Car 3
Baltimore	- 11 1/2	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland	Bal 27 - Cle 17
New England	- 11 1/2	Houston	Houston	Houston	NE 40 - Hou 7
Buffalo	- 1 1/2	Miami	Miami	Buffalo	Buf 21 - Mia 0
Denver	- 2 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	Denver	Den 37 - AZ 20
NY Giants	- 5 1/2	Philadelphia	Giants	Giants	NY 22 - Phi 36
San Diego	- 8 1/2	Kansas City	San Diego	Kansas City	SD 20 - KC 9
Oakland	- 1 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Oakland	Oak 0 - STL 20
Indianapolis	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Indianapolis	Ind 34 - Cin 16

Seattle San Francisco and Dallas Atlanta games I picked earlier but did not post (espn pigskin pick'em). So far am 2 - 0 Madden 07 picked 35 - 15 Seattle and 27 - 24 Atlanta.

Sunday and Monday's games

Minnesota vs NY Jets - Both teams are in the play off hunt but the Vikings are 6 - 7 ATS while the Jets are 8 - 5. Jets 24 - Vikings 21. Madden 07 pick 27 - 20 Vikings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - Titans make it 5 in a row 27 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-21 Jaguars.

Green Bay vs Detroit - Favre's best game of the year against the lowly Lions, today he repeats that performance, Packers 35 - Lions 21. Madden 07 pick 24-14 Packers.

Chicago vs Tampa Bay - Double digit spread? Bears win 28 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-10 Bears.

New Orleans vs Washington - Saints are 9 and 4 ATS but today they stumble and win 21 - 17. Madden 07 pick 24 - 17.

Pittsburgh at Carolina - Wenke is 3 and 19 as a starter. Pittsburgh 6 - 7 ATS and Carolina is like 1 and 5 at home ATS. Pittsburgh 17 - Carolina 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 10 Panthers. (I keep on changing my mind on this but when you stink as a starter you stink)

Baltimore vs Cleveland - Ravens are 8 - 5 ATS but I don't trust their offense against this divisional foe, Ravens 21 - Browns 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 13 Ravens.

New England vs Houston - Patriots struggle at home this year, Houston has enough offense to keep the injury riddled Pats on the field all day. Patriots 21 - Texans 17. Madden 07 pick 38 - 31 Pats.

Buffalo vs Miami - I think the win over the Patriots last week and Miami's record the last month of a season means the Dolphins win this game 28 - 17. Madden 07 pick 30 - 27 Bills.

Denver at Arizon - Lienart vs Cutler, I'm going with Lienart winning this game 35 - 28. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Bronco's.

NY Giants vs Philadelphia - Giants won the first game and usually the team that wins the first one in this series sweeps. Giants 35 - Eagles 21. Madden 07 pick 24-13 Giants. (another game where I keep on being a Charlie Brown, sticking with Eli to continue to shine and Garcia is due for one of his atrocious games)

San Diego vs Kansas City - Kansas City continues its free fall, Charges win 35 - 17. Madden 07 pick 22 - 17 Chargers.

Oakland vs St. Louis - I like Art Shell as a person, but as a coach he is bilge water. St. Louis kicks a 59 yard field goal to win 24 - 22. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Raiders.

Indianapolis vs Cincinnati - Have you seen the Colts defense, if spotted please tell Tony Dungy. Cincinnati comes out blazing and nips the Colts late 43 - 42. Madden 07 pick 28-24 Colts.

See you later.

Win Shares III

Recapping, we have now signed J.D., Lugo, Dice, Donelly, Romero and Mirabelli. So lets take a look at how our win shares are now looking:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	15	SP	Schilling	14
1b	Youkilis	11	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	19	SP	Wakefield	10
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon	12 *
2b	Pedroia	15 **	SP	Matsuzaka	12 *
LF	Rameriz	30	RP	Timlin	8
CF	Crisp	15	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	23	RP	DelCarmen	2
DH	Ortiz	28
1 / 3b	Hinske	9	RP	Donnelly	6
2b / ss	Cora	9	RP	Romero	4
OF	Wily Mo	9	RP	Okajami	6 ***
C	Mirabelli	5	RP	Unknown
	Totals	162			92

Using the 3 year average of all players unless otherwise noted.

* Average of top 90 starting pitchers over the last 3 years.
** Average of top 30 starting 2B over the last 3 years.
*** Average of top 150 relief pitchers for last 3 years.

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. This totals 254 right now which is
31 short of the expected goal. Of course we do not have a closer which would push us closer to the magic number.

All win share information determined from The Hardball Times.

The only problem is that if you were to take a look at the top Win Shares for closers over the last 3 years you will see that the leaders have posted 17 (lidge), 16 (rivera) and 18 (papelbon). The average of the top 30 is only 11.5 shares. Obviously, no matter who we get as a closer would leave us short by either 14 or 20 to reach this magic number. Not looking good for 95 wins.