Hall Of Fame I - David Wells

Earlier today I had a discussion with one of my co-workers about Hall of Fame Worthiness of former Red Sox players and Randy Johnson. Specifically we discussed Jim Rice, Manny, Curt Schilling, and David Wells.

My first thought is Rice definitely should be in the hall, Manny will be a first ballot electee and the other two are no go's. Randy Johnson will also be a first ballot electee. Other Red Sox players or ex players that are coming up on their retirements that will be elected are Pedro, possibly Nomar, David Ortiz if he continues his output for 3 to 4 more years will be and of course the elephant in the room Roger.

Of course I decided to go look at some of the numbers to see if I can justify their exclusion or their elections.

First lets look at Wells - he has pitched for 20 years in the majors with a 230 wins and 148 losses for a .608 winning percentage. Now I am one of those who says 300 wins you are in, less than 300 you better be special. Wells is not special, he had only one year where he has won 20, one year where he won 19, and one year where he won 18. Career ERA is 4.07 which does compare favorably with league era of 4.45.

If you look at his comparable pitchers you will find listed -

1. Jamie Moyer - not a HOFer
2. Kenny Rogers - not a HOFer
3. Mike Mussina - Possible HOFer
4. Schilling - not a HOFer
5. Kevin Brown - not a HOFer
6. Herb Pennock - HOF
7. Lew Burdette - not a HOFer
8. Bob Welch - not a HOFer
9. Freddie Fitzsimmons - not a HOFer
10. Carl Hubbell - HOF

So out of 10 comparable pitchers you have 2 HOF and 1 possible HOF. I like David but so far, not Hall of Fame Material.

Now usually you can make a case by saying over a 5 or 10 year period did he dominate the league?. Lets look at his best 10 year period, in wins:

1995 - 2004
Won 149 - Lost 83 (.642 %), in 2036 + innings with a ERA of 4.11. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 174 - 83 in 2270+ innings with a 2.89 ERA
2. Johnson - 165 - 66 in 2122+ innings with a 2.7 ERA
3. Pedro - 161 - 65 in 2036+ innings with a 2.67 ERA
4. Mussina - 159 - 98 in 2160+ innings with a 3.72 ERA
   
5. Clemens - 156 - 71 in 2099+ innings with a 3.29 ERA
6. Pettitte - 155 - 82 in 1875+ innings with a 3.94 ERA
7. Glavine - 154 - 96 in 2218 innings with a 3.34 ERA
   
8. Wells
   
9. Schilling - 148 - 86 in 2123+ innings with a 3.25 ERA
10. Moyer 141 - 75 in 1938+ innings with a 4.01 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 7th in percentage (minimum 100 wins), 6th in Shutouts (minimum 100 wins), and 18th in ERA (minimum 100 wins).

So far, a top tier pitcher but HOF? I say no!

Lets look at his best 5 year period, in wins:

1996 - 2000
Won 82 - Lost 46 (.641 %), in 1118 innings with a ERA of 4.36. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 90 - 42 in 1197+ innings with a 2.73 ERA
2. Pedro - 90 - 36 in 1122 innings with a 2.45 ERA
3. Pettitte - 88 - 45 in 1074 innings with a 3.96 ERA
4. Glavine - 84 - 43 in 1179+ innings with a 3.19 ERA
5. Brown - 82 - 41 in 1209+ innings with a 2.51 ERA
   
6. Wells
7. Johnson - 80 - 31 in 1039 innings with a 2.74 ERA
8. Clemens - 78 - 44 in 1133+ innings with a 3.23 ERA
9. Neagle - 76 - 39 in 985+ innings with a 3.69 ERA
10. Mussina - 76 - 51 in 1115+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 10th in percentage (minimum 50 wins), 5th in Shutouts (minimum 50 wins), and 36th in ERA (minimum 50 wins).

Again a top tier Pitcher but not HOF.

Update: Bill James agrees with me. Go here.