Thursday, March 27, 2008

2008 March Madness Sweet Sixteen Day 1 Preview

Well, lets recap, round 1 I went 23-9 thanks to a lousy 9-7 record on day two of the round. In round 2 I went 9-7 thanks to Davidson, Michigan St. and West Virginia. Of course if I had been smart I would have realized that Kentucky and Baylor weren't going to win their first game let alone make the sweet sixteen. Still, I do have 3 of my four final four teams in this thing, so I am not going to be too bummed out.

So, tonight we have four games, West Virginia vs Xavier at 7:10 p.m. which I think might be a very good game. I'm going to pull for the Musketeers but do not count out West Virginia. Huggins has made this a good solid team that rebounds and plays man-to-man defense, a very tough man-to-man defense. I still give the edge to the Musketeers.

At 7:27 p.m. we get the Washington State vs UNC game. I would like to say that Washington State has no chance but they are a tough team. Still, UNC should handle the Cougars.

The 9:40 game has one of the Cinderella stories, Western Kentucky vs UCLA. The only thing that would make me smile more is to see Western Kentucky and Washington State win tonight, but UCLA will agoniziling sneak this game out in the final four minutes.

The last game has Louisville vs Tennessee. Since I have Tennessee going to the championship game, I am sticking with that initial prediction. Tennessee wins a close game but prevails to face UNC in the regional final.

Inane stat of the day - in the last 15 tournaments the two conferences that have sent the most teams to the final four (ACC - 13, SEC - 12), have only one team left in the tournament. If Tennessee makes the final four then it will be tied.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

2008 March Madness Round 1 & 2 Recaps

Well that was an interesting first two rounds. Looking at my picks, well lets just say that I had the east bracket pegged, other than that, well, the only good thing to say is that I have six of the great eights still alive and three of the final four still alive. How about Davidson!!!!!

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
UNCUNC
IndianaUNC
Notre DameWash. St.
Wash St.Tennessee
OklahomaLouisville
LouisvilleTennessee
ButlerTennessee
Tennessee
KansasKansas
UNLVKansas
ClemsonClemson
VanderbiltKansas
Kansas St.Wisconsin
WisconsinGeorgetown
GonzagaGeorgetown
Georgetown
MemphisMemphis
OregonMemphis
Michigan St.PittsburghMemphis
Pittsburgh
KentuckyKentucky
StanfordTexas
MiamiTexas
Texas
UCLAUCLA
Texas A & MUCLA
DrakeDrake
ConnecticutDuke
BaylorBaylor
XavierDuke
West VirginiaDuke
Duke

A lot of misses once you get past the East. Still that is what makes this tournament so much fun, even when I knew that the team I picked was going to lose, I still found myself rooting for the Western Kentucky's, Davidsons, and Siena's. Will take a look at the third round after I finish watching Opening Day in Japan and have some time to look at who is left. Chow!!!!

Update: I noticed I had Duke going out in the first round, corrected.

Friday, March 21, 2008

2008 March Madness Round 1 Recap Day 1

This right here is what makes March Madness special. A mighty fine game that went right down to the wire. Not often does a 15 seed pull the upset in the first round (1991, 1993, 1997 and 2001) being the only times in this tournament history. An ACC team seeded 2 has never lost this game. In fact there have been only six # 2 teams that have previously won by 3 or fewer points their opening round game:

  1. Arkansas beat Texas Southern - 79 - 78 in 1995
  2. Tennessee beat Winthrop - 63 - 61 in 2006
  3. Cincinatti beat N. Arizona - 65 - 62 in 1998
  4. Duke beat Murray State - 71 - 68 in 1997
  5. Kansas beat Utah State - 64 - 61 in 2003
  6. Wake Forest beat E. Tenn. St. - 76 - 73 in 2003
Only Arkansas and Kansas advanced past the second round, surprisingly both made the championship games, in those tournaments. All other #2's won their games by more than a basket. In fact the average score is 80.46 to 64.09. In fact only 21 times (counting last night) in 89 wins has the number 2 team not won by double digits. Just to emphasize how rare last nights game was, 32 of the 89 wins were by greater than 20 points.

Well, that is the inane statistical portion of this post. Some pretty good games yesterday. Some stinkers also, still I'll take my 14-2 record after day one of this tournament, though I have to admit, what the hell was I thinking when I picked Kentucky! Geez!

Of course I blame the coach in the Ky game. Twice Marquette made sizable runs of 12-0 and 12-2 before he called a time out. Both cases the game clock moved 4+ minutes with his team not scoring or only scoring once. You just can't let that happen in a NCAA game.

Best game of yesterday was the Duke game, but the Xavier / Georgia game was also a pretty good one to watch. Xavier played like a 14 seed yesterday for the first half, but really turned it on in the second half. Well, enough rambling for now, so we will catch you later. Go hogs!!!! Soooie, pig Soooie!!!!!
Some good games today also.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

2008 March Madness Round 1

Finally!!! The best three extended weekends (thu-sun) of sports is here. Should be a good tournament and as always, I will be glued to the TV! So, before the first game tips off lets get the picks out of the way!
First lets look at the East Bracket Winners

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
UNC
UNC


Indiana
.
UNC

Notre Dame
Wash St.


Wash. St.


Tennessee
Oklahoma
Louisville


Louisville

Tennessee

Butler
Tennessee


Tennessee




Not a lot of upsets there, in fact there are none. I think this bracket does have some possible ones though. I can easily see Indiana continuing their funk and being beaten by Arkansas. It is also possible that Notre Dame gets beat by George Mason and if I was the Butler Bulldogs I would be real worried about South Alabama. Still I just don't think that the upsets will happen.

Midwest Bracket Winners
Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Kansas
Kansas


UNLV

Kansas

Clemson
Clemson


Vanderbilt


Kansas
Kansas St.
Wisconsin


Wisconsin

Georgetown

Gonzaga
Georgetown


Georgetown




The only upset here (I don't consider a 5 over a 4 an upset) is the Kansas State win. While both teams have stud freshmen, I just think that Kansas State has more players and should squeak by USC.

Other interesting games in this bracket also. The UNLV vs Kent game should be good and so will the Clemson vs Villanova game. I also would not be surprised to see a weak 4 seed lose to Siena. The Gonzaga vs Davidson should be an intriguing game also.

South Bracket Winners
Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Memphis
Memphis


Oregon

Memphis

Michigan St.
Pittsburgh


Pittsburgh


Memphis
Kentucky
Kentucky


Stanford

Texas

Miami
Texas


Texas




Upset special here as Kentucky makes a surprising run to the sweet sixteen. The other first round game that I will be watching is the Michigan State vs Temple game. Temple could pull off the upset. I would also like to see St. Mary's beat Miami, that would be so sweet after the bubble babble about the ACC only getting four teams in the tourney.

West Bracket Winners
Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
UCLA
UCLA


Texas A & M

UCLA

Drake
Drake


Connecticut


Duke
Baylor
Baylor


Xavier

Duke

West Virginia
Duke


Duke




Upsets in this region - Baylor says good by to the Dave Bliss era and makes the sweet 16!!! I also think that Drake can and should beat the Huskies of UConn.

In my final four I have Tennessee beating Kansas and Memphis beating Duke. This would set up a rematch of an earlier game where #1 Memphis lost to #2 Tennessee earlier this year. This time though, I have Memphis winning! Well that is my Sheet of Integrity Bracket. Now its time to watch some Basketball!!!

Sunday, March 16, 2008

2008 NCAA Seeds

Ok, lets look at the seedings!!!! This is how I would see the teams assuming no upsets by Georgia or Illinois.


SeedReg 1Reg 2Reg 3Reg 4
1 UNCMemphisUCLAKansas
2 G'TownDukeTexasTennessee
3 VandyLouisvilleWiscStanford
4 DrakeClemsonPittIndiana
5 XavierMich. St.ButlerU-Conn
6 OklahomaKent St.MarquetteBYU
7 UNLVKentuckyMiss. St.Notre Dame
8 ArkansasUSCW. VirginiaWash. St.
9 GonzagaMiami (fl)DaytonIllinois St.
10 St. Mary'sKansas St.ArizonaDavidson
11 Tex. A & MW. KentuckySt. Joseph'sBaylor
12 TempleS. AlabamaMississippiPurdue
13 George MasonCornellBelmontAustin Peay
14 Boise St.Cal St. Ful.SienaOral Roberts
15 San DiegoWinthropUMBCPortland St.
16

Miss. Val. St.

Coppin St.

Mount St. Mary'sTx-ArlingtonAmerican


Ok, if either Georgia or Illinois wins, you remove S. Alabama and place that team in that slot for the region. If both teams win then you replace Mississippi.

Note - While I was working on this they announced that Mount St. Mary's would face Coppin State in the Play in game. This is because the NCAA does not like to have two historical Black Colleges to face each other in the play in game.

2008 Mens Tourney

Well it is that time of the year again, the best three weeks of college Basketball is about to kick off. Today there are five tournaments looking to get the automatic bids while teams on the bubble sit around and root, root, root for teams that are already in the dance to win.

First up is the Southland and the ACC tournaments at 1:00 p.m. this afternoon. Basically these are meaningless games as the winners won't cause any angst among the bubbleites (is that a word?). The Southland will only get one team in the dance and both UNC and Clemson are locks for the tournament which means they are only playing for their final seeding in Clemsons case and bragging rights (UNC is a mortal lock for a 1 seed).

Next up is the Big-12 tournament game at 3:00 p.m., with both of these teams (Texas and Kansas) also just playing for bragging rights and their final seeding. With the Tennessee loss yesterday (yeah boy!!! sooooie pig sooooie!!!) the winer of this game could become a #1 seed. Look for Kansas to win this game by 4+.

The last two championships though will have the VCU's of the world though reaching for the Maalox. At 3:30 the Big-10 and the SEC tip off and both have underdogs that can cause havoc in the brackets.

Wisconsin plays Illinois in the Big-10 and the fighting Illini are not a good team this year. With a 16-18 record an upset win here would leave a more worthy team looking in instead of putting on the dancing shoes. Wisconsin will be ready though so switch the tube to ESPN2 and watch the Georgia Bulldogs play the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is the upset special of the day as the Dogs can beat Arkansas (see 1/19/2008 for the last time these two teams met). Still, the hat is ready and the beer is cold, so I am ready for this game!!!!

Who will make the cut? Well, let us look at some RPI numbers and try to make a good guess for the teams.

TeamRPIW'sL'sBid
Memphis
3rd
32
1
Champ
UCLA
6th
29
3
Champ
Drake
10th
26
4
Champ
Butler
17th
29
3
Champ
Pittsburgh
19th
24
9
Champ
Kent St.
23rd
27
6
Champ
UNLV
26th
24
7
Champ
Davidson
36th
25
6
Champ
W. Ky.
41st
25
6
Champ
ORU
53rd
23
8
Champ
Temple
57th
20
12
Champ
George Mason
62nd
23
10
Champ
Cornell
66th
21
5
Champ
Siena
68th
22
10
Champ
Belmont
78th
24
8
Champ
Austin Peay
84th
24
10
Champ
Cal St. Fullerton
86th
22
8
Champ
American
89th
21
11
Champ
UMBC
90th
22
8
Champ
Portland St.
91st
21
9
Champ
Boise St.
92nd
23
8
Champ
San Diego
95th
20
13
Champ
Winthrop
109th
20
11
Champ
Mount St. Mary's
160th
18
14
Champ
Miss. Valley St.
237th
14
15
Champ
Coppin St.
246th
13
20
Champ

Just looking at RPI's there are fourteen teams that are presently in the dance would not be in this thing if we went by RPI alone to decide the contestants. Ah the beauty of March Madness!

So, who then is on the bubble? Well, lets take a gander at the top 50 (the Southland will also be above 65) RPI teams . (L means a Lock, A = Auto)

Tennessee(L), UNC(L), Memphis(A), Duke(L), Texas(L), UCLA(A), Georgetown(L), Kansas(L), Xavier(L), Drake(A), Vanderbilt(L), Louisville(L), Wisconsin(L), Michigan St.(L), Stanford(L), Indiana(L), Butler(A), Connecticut(L), Pittsburgh(A), Marquette(L), BYU(L), Clemson(L), Kent St.(A), Notre Dame(L), Oklahoma(L), UNLV(A), Washington St.(L), West Virginia(L), USC(L), Gonzaga(L), Arkansas(L), Miami (FL)(L), Dayton, Illinois State, Mississippi State(L), Davidson(A), Arizona(L), South Alabama, Saint Mary's(L), Texas A & M, Western Kentucky(A), St. Joseph's, Baylor(L), Massachusetts, Purdue(L), Ohio State, Kentucky(L), Mississippi, Creighton, and Kansas St.(L). (autos and L's make for 58).

Those are some big names in that top 50 and some surprising names in that mix (South Alabama, St. Joseph's just to name two of them). Will all of these teams make the dance? Not a chance. So let's look at some other criteria to decide the teams that will be leaping for joy!

TeamRPIW'sL's1-100
W
1-100
L
SOS
Creighton
49
20
10
4
7
71
Dayton
33
21
10
9
6
25
Illinois St.
34
23
9
5
5
65
U-Mass
44
21
10
6
7
66
Mississippi
48
21
10
7
4
70
Ohio St.
46
19
13
7
11
10
S. Alabama
38
24
6
4
3
120
St. Joseph's
42
21
11
8
7
51
Texas A & M
40
23
9
8
9
64

That is nine teams for only six spots, so actually this isn't too bad, I only have to get rid of 3 of the top 50 RPI teams. I think we can eliminate Creighton, U-Mass and Ohio State from these teams. So based on RPI we have our 65 teams but are we missing any?

Actually I think there are a couple of intriguing teams not in the top 50 of RPI that do merit some consideration. VCU with a 24-7 record and a 56 RPI ranking, New Mexico with a 24-8 record and a 59 RPI, and Utah State with a 23-10 record and a 70RPI.

Let us look at these teams with the same additional Criteria
TeamRPIW'sL's1-100
W
1-100
L
SOS
VCU
56
24
17
3
3
160
New Mexico
59
24
8
6
6
169
Utah St.
70
23
10
6
4
156

Well, they are all viable, based on the W/L record you could make a case for inserting them into the table above, but I think the SOS kills them. Still, I would not be surprised if one of these three make the tournament. Later I'll have a projected seeding chart.