Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Is 13 million too much?

Well, there has been a lot of talk about Schilling on WEEI lately. Most of the talk seems to be how Curt faded down the stretch / second half of the year as to why the Sox have decided to not offer him an extension at this time. The question then becomes did Curt fade down the stretch? If he did fade, is there a reason for this fade? Does this mean that Curt is finished, or not worth 13 million for the 2008 year? More importanlty, how would or should we determine the value of Curt for last year and in the future?

First lets take a look at the numbers for #38. Last year overall Curt was 15 and 7 with a 3.97 ERA in 31 starts. His whip was a pretty decent 1.22 6th in the AL and 13th overall. His Win total was tied for 14th in the AL and 20th overall. The 3.97 ERA was the 13th best in the AL for starters and 28th overall. His 204 innings pitched was tied for 15th in the AL and 37th overall. The 31 starts placed him tied for 25th in the AL and tied for 56th overall. His 183 k's was the 5th best in the AL and 12th best overall. The 19 Quality starts were tied for 10th and 24th overall. His ratio of K's to BB's was the best overall (6.54). The k/9 ratio of 8.07 was the 5th best and 14th best.

All and all decent numbers for the Schill for the year but what about his fade at the end of the year. There are two ways to approach this, 1) before and after the All star break or first 81 games and last 81 games.

Schilling Stats before All Star game
LeagueWinsGSERAIPWHIPK'sK / BBK /9W pct
ALT 4T 171 *435 *3 *5 *59 *T 41 *
OverallT 6T 2153 *756 *81 *7 *134 *79 *

* includes relievers

Schilling Stats after All Star game
LeagueWinsGSERAIPWHIPK'sK / BBK /9W pct
ALT 27T 48126 *T 38121 *T 17 *15 *63 *T 87 *
OverallT 65T 100273 *T 86261 *T 39 *31 *152 *T 165 *

* includes relievers

Yep, looking at these numbers it is obvious that he had a significant decline in the second half.
Now the question appears to be is there a reason for this decline.

Lets look at who he faced in the first half of the season: Texas, Baltimore (3), Seattle, Tampa Bay (4), Cleveland, Yankees (3), Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Mets, and the White Sox. 19 starts against 12 teams. 8 of these 19 starts were against teams that were 500 or greater last year. His record against these teams were 3 and 1. That is pretty good record against winning teams and a better record against the losers.

The second half he faced Oakland (3), Texas, Anaheim, Tampa Bay (2), KC, Detroit, Yankees, Seattle and Minnesota in his 12 starts. That's 9 teams total and only 4 of the teams had losing records. Of the 12 starts 7 were against winning teams. His record against the winning teams was 2 and 2.

Realistically, shouldn't we expect him to do worse the second half? It should be noted that almost 1/3 of his starts in the first half were ND's. The bullpen also blew 2 games in the first half and 2 games in the second half. If the pen had not failed him the second half his record would have been 7 and 4 and no one would be talking about a fade in the second half.

Lets compare his winning percentage to the team percentage:

1st half team went 53 - 33 for a .612, his percentage was .769
2nd half team went 33 - 43 for a .434, his percentage was .556

Both halves he exceeded the team percentage by a significant margin.

I think 13 million extension would have been perfect for Schilling. If you were worried about age, injury etc. you could have built that into his contract. In my opinion not tendering him an offer was horses***. Here's hoping he goes 22 and 4 and tells Larry to kiss his a** goodbye at the end of the year.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Schilling Links

Update: Cursed To First has the SOSH post by Schilling posted. Worth a good read (original thread is here.)

Thought that I would add some of the Schilling links in one spot from the usual sources. First off we have Bradford's take here and here, then the Herald's take and last but not least the globe's takes here, here, and here.

As for me I am now settling into the good-bye tour of Schilling. Everybody is accusing him of being a jackass for deciding to go ahead and play one more year as if none of them ever changed their minds about something, but the plain fact is that next year he will be no worse than the #3 starter for this club and when people like Meche are getting 11 million plus then 13 million is a steal. What I am hoping for is that Curt wins his first 8 or so wins and when Theo and them come around saying hey, about that contract do you want to talk, he laughs and walks away. As for the pin stripes, ain't ever going to happen, the Mets maybe, but the Yankees? Not a chance.

I have also added a new site to the Freaking Links, Red Sox 24/7. It appears to be a solid site and I look forward to reading them this year, so stop by and tell them the peace brigade sent you.

Am working on doing a review of his work last year, but as usual, I have pulled out so much information that I am trying to get my thoughts wrapped around his work last year, one quick thing I noticed though was that almost half of his no decisions had blown saves, would Theo and them have been hesitating if Schilling had won 19 games last year?

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Blog Roll Updates

Well, I just finished updating and arranging the blog links in the side bar. Basically, I moved all of the sports related up behind the Dilbert Blog. The man with the funny tie will always be number one and of course I moved the Joy of Sox up since that is a blog that has always supported me. Just call it my version of Spring Cleaning here at Peace, Love and Sox.

Bradford on baseball is looking like a good place to start this year on the Sox front, I like the way he is trying to answer questions placed in his comments. The rest of the crew of blogs that I link are as always on top of their game, let us hope that the Sox will follow suit this year.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Spring 2007

Well, its good to see that the team has reported to sunny Florida and is ready to take on the world of photographers as it gets ready for the 2007 season. Of course this being the Red Sox the circus has already started.

1) we have the local media in arms about the Matsuzaka treatment (see Shaughnessy, Callahan etal).
2) WEEI has already dedicated time to the Manny situation (see the Big Show).
3) Tito has already had to tell the media to shut up (see publicist / Tavarez).
4) The blogs and media has decided that Schilling is an overweight jerk who should just shut up and pitch (see boston dirt dogs).
5) Papelbon will be the closer for 2007 season (see boston.com blog)

Yep its spring and all things are eternal.

First off I agree with Glenn Ordway, if Matsuzuka goes 16 and 11 with a 5.01 ERA that is not a disappointment. The Japanese league is at best on a par with the National League, but is more likely below the National and at worst on a par with the AAA leagues. To expect Matsuzaka to be better than Beckett in his first year in the AL east is not rational. Oh, lets not forget one other thing, he is not a 100 million dollar pitcher, do not include the posting fee with his salary when you talk about this young pitcher.

The Manny not showing up til 1 of March falls into the "are we surprised category". I'll just grind my teeth about the Manny fawning and will wish that Jim Rice could impart some DNA to this future Hall of Famer.

Tito will always protect his players in the press, end of story.

Schilling may be overweight and opinionated, but when he takes the ball in 2007 he will give this team everything he has and always will be one of the top pitchers in this league. Sign him to a one year extension with an option for 2009 and be done with this guy until the season starts.

Papelbon may end up being the closer, but that is up to the Doctors. Personally, I say trot him out there every five days and mark a W in the record.

Stealing from Ian at Brownie points I make the following predictions:

How many games will the Red Sox win this year? 95
How many postseason games will the Red Sox win this year? 6
How many games will Matsuzaka win this year? 16
Who will lead the Red Sox in wins this year? Schilling
Who will lead the Red Sox in saves this year? Pinero
How many games will J.D. Drew play this year? 134
How many homers will David Ortiz hit this year? 44
Who will win the American League MVP? A-Rod
Who will win the National League MVP? Howard
Who will win the American League Cy Young Award? Kazmir
Who will win the National League Cy Young Award? Lowe
Who will win the AL East? Yankees
Who will win the AL Central? Tigers
Who will win the AL West? Angels
Who will win the AL wild card? Red Sox
Who will win the NL East? Mets
Who will win the NL Central? Cardinals
Who will win the NL West? Dodgers
Who will win the NL Wild Card? Phillies
Who will win the AL pennant? Yankees
Who will win the NL pennant? Mets
Who will win the World Series? Mets

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Super Bowl XLI

Well, the game is almost here. I just want a good game or a Colt blow out so that there is no agnst. After all of the Manning stories this week, if you didn't hate him before you probably do now. Still, as I have stated before, I hope he gets the monkey off his back today. One Marino career in my lifetime is quite enough thank you.

Friday, February 02, 2007

3 weeks

Q: Where you been you sluggard?

A: Well, being the complete nerd that I am, I decided to break out the old playstation and update the teams to see how 2007 might look from a gaming stand point. So, far the results have been mixed but after countless games I show the Sox winning as few as 82 games (Varitek and Lowell out for over 1/2 of the season) to as many as 103 games (no significant injuries).

Q: So what do you think of the Schilling situation?
A: This is a no brainer and as I stated on Seths blog, at the forum and other venues just give him the money. I don't think that Curt will have any problem with injury clauses and if you can give a mutual option to Timmy then you can certainly give one to Curt and yes I still remember the bloody sock.
Q: Are you happy to see the Colts in the Super Bowl?
A: Not sure if you noticed but I didn't make picks (on the blog anyway) on the conference championship games (though I thought the snow would do in the Saints, see Tampa Bay - history) and figured the Patriots - Colts game would be a toss up. If the Cowboys aren't in it I usually root for players and I like Peyton and I really don't want to see another Marino like career for any QB. What I don't understand is those Pats fans who are rooting against the Colts. It seems to me like you would want the Colts to win so that you could say, see if we had just beaten them we would be celebrating our 4th championship.

Thats all for now. Will continue to run sims and will let you know when we are done.