Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Is 13 million too much?

Well, there has been a lot of talk about Schilling on WEEI lately. Most of the talk seems to be how Curt faded down the stretch / second half of the year as to why the Sox have decided to not offer him an extension at this time. The question then becomes did Curt fade down the stretch? If he did fade, is there a reason for this fade? Does this mean that Curt is finished, or not worth 13 million for the 2008 year? More importanlty, how would or should we determine the value of Curt for last year and in the future?

First lets take a look at the numbers for #38. Last year overall Curt was 15 and 7 with a 3.97 ERA in 31 starts. His whip was a pretty decent 1.22 6th in the AL and 13th overall. His Win total was tied for 14th in the AL and 20th overall. The 3.97 ERA was the 13th best in the AL for starters and 28th overall. His 204 innings pitched was tied for 15th in the AL and 37th overall. The 31 starts placed him tied for 25th in the AL and tied for 56th overall. His 183 k's was the 5th best in the AL and 12th best overall. The 19 Quality starts were tied for 10th and 24th overall. His ratio of K's to BB's was the best overall (6.54). The k/9 ratio of 8.07 was the 5th best and 14th best.

All and all decent numbers for the Schill for the year but what about his fade at the end of the year. There are two ways to approach this, 1) before and after the All star break or first 81 games and last 81 games.

Schilling Stats before All Star game
LeagueWinsGSERAIPWHIPK'sK / BBK /9W pct
ALT 4T 171 *435 *3 *5 *59 *T 41 *
OverallT 6T 2153 *756 *81 *7 *134 *79 *

* includes relievers

Schilling Stats after All Star game
LeagueWinsGSERAIPWHIPK'sK / BBK /9W pct
ALT 27T 48126 *T 38121 *T 17 *15 *63 *T 87 *
OverallT 65T 100273 *T 86261 *T 39 *31 *152 *T 165 *

* includes relievers

Yep, looking at these numbers it is obvious that he had a significant decline in the second half.
Now the question appears to be is there a reason for this decline.

Lets look at who he faced in the first half of the season: Texas, Baltimore (3), Seattle, Tampa Bay (4), Cleveland, Yankees (3), Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Mets, and the White Sox. 19 starts against 12 teams. 8 of these 19 starts were against teams that were 500 or greater last year. His record against these teams were 3 and 1. That is pretty good record against winning teams and a better record against the losers.

The second half he faced Oakland (3), Texas, Anaheim, Tampa Bay (2), KC, Detroit, Yankees, Seattle and Minnesota in his 12 starts. That's 9 teams total and only 4 of the teams had losing records. Of the 12 starts 7 were against winning teams. His record against the winning teams was 2 and 2.

Realistically, shouldn't we expect him to do worse the second half? It should be noted that almost 1/3 of his starts in the first half were ND's. The bullpen also blew 2 games in the first half and 2 games in the second half. If the pen had not failed him the second half his record would have been 7 and 4 and no one would be talking about a fade in the second half.

Lets compare his winning percentage to the team percentage:

1st half team went 53 - 33 for a .612, his percentage was .769
2nd half team went 33 - 43 for a .434, his percentage was .556

Both halves he exceeded the team percentage by a significant margin.

I think 13 million extension would have been perfect for Schilling. If you were worried about age, injury etc. you could have built that into his contract. In my opinion not tendering him an offer was horses***. Here's hoping he goes 22 and 4 and tells Larry to kiss his a** goodbye at the end of the year.

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