2008 Mens Tourney

Well it is that time of the year again, the best three weeks of college Basketball is about to kick off. Today there are five tournaments looking to get the automatic bids while teams on the bubble sit around and root, root, root for teams that are already in the dance to win.

First up is the Southland and the ACC tournaments at 1:00 p.m. this afternoon. Basically these are meaningless games as the winners won't cause any angst among the bubbleites (is that a word?). The Southland will only get one team in the dance and both UNC and Clemson are locks for the tournament which means they are only playing for their final seeding in Clemsons case and bragging rights (UNC is a mortal lock for a 1 seed).

Next up is the Big-12 tournament game at 3:00 p.m., with both of these teams (Texas and Kansas) also just playing for bragging rights and their final seeding. With the Tennessee loss yesterday (yeah boy!!! sooooie pig sooooie!!!) the winer of this game could become a #1 seed. Look for Kansas to win this game by 4+.

The last two championships though will have the VCU's of the world though reaching for the Maalox. At 3:30 the Big-10 and the SEC tip off and both have underdogs that can cause havoc in the brackets.

Wisconsin plays Illinois in the Big-10 and the fighting Illini are not a good team this year. With a 16-18 record an upset win here would leave a more worthy team looking in instead of putting on the dancing shoes. Wisconsin will be ready though so switch the tube to ESPN2 and watch the Georgia Bulldogs play the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is the upset special of the day as the Dogs can beat Arkansas (see 1/19/2008 for the last time these two teams met). Still, the hat is ready and the beer is cold, so I am ready for this game!!!!

Who will make the cut? Well, let us look at some RPI numbers and try to make a good guess for the teams.

Team	RPI	W's	L's	Bid
Memphis	3rd	32	1	Champ
UCLA	6th	29	3	Champ
Drake	10th	26	4	Champ
Butler	17th	29	3	Champ
Pittsburgh	19th	24	9	Champ
Kent St.	23rd	27	6	Champ
UNLV	26th	24	7	Champ
Davidson	36th	25	6	Champ
W. Ky.	41st	25	6	Champ
ORU	53rd	23	8	Champ
Temple	57th	20	12	Champ
George Mason	62nd	23	10	Champ
Cornell	66th	21	5	Champ
Siena	68th	22	10	Champ
Belmont	78th	24	8	Champ
Austin Peay	84th	24	10	Champ
Cal St. Fullerton	86th	22	8	Champ
American	89th	21	11	Champ
UMBC	90th	22	8	Champ
Portland St.	91st	21	9	Champ
Boise St.	92nd	23	8	Champ
San Diego	95th	20	13	Champ
Winthrop	109th	20	11	Champ
Mount St. Mary's	160th	18	14	Champ
Miss. Valley St.	237th	14	15	Champ
Coppin St.	246th	13	20	Champ

Just looking at RPI's there are fourteen teams that are presently in the dance would not be in this thing if we went by RPI alone to decide the contestants. Ah the beauty of March Madness!

So, who then is on the bubble? Well, lets take a gander at the top 50 (the Southland will also be above 65) RPI teams . (L means a Lock, A = Auto)

Tennessee(L), UNC(L), Memphis(A), Duke(L), Texas(L), UCLA(A), Georgetown(L), Kansas(L), Xavier(L), Drake(A), Vanderbilt(L), Louisville(L), Wisconsin(L), Michigan St.(L), Stanford(L), Indiana(L), Butler(A), Connecticut(L), Pittsburgh(A), Marquette(L), BYU(L), Clemson(L), Kent St.(A), Notre Dame(L), Oklahoma(L), UNLV(A), Washington St.(L), West Virginia(L), USC(L), Gonzaga(L), Arkansas(L), Miami (FL)(L), Dayton, Illinois State, Mississippi State(L), Davidson(A), Arizona(L), South Alabama, Saint Mary's(L), Texas A & M, Western Kentucky(A), St. Joseph's, Baylor(L), Massachusetts, Purdue(L), Ohio State, Kentucky(L), Mississippi, Creighton, and Kansas St.(L). (autos and L's make for 58).

Those are some big names in that top 50 and some surprising names in that mix (South Alabama, St. Joseph's just to name two of them). Will all of these teams make the dance? Not a chance. So let's look at some other criteria to decide the teams that will be leaping for joy!

Team	RPI	W's	L's	1-100 W	1-100 L	SOS
Creighton	49	20	10	4	7	71
Dayton	33	21	10	9	6	25
Illinois St.	34	23	9	5	5	65
U-Mass	44	21	10	6	7	66
Mississippi	48	21	10	7	4	70
Ohio St.	46	19	13	7	11	10
S. Alabama	38	24	6	4	3	120
St. Joseph's	42	21	11	8	7	51
Texas A & M	40	23	9	8	9	64

That is nine teams for only six spots, so actually this isn't too bad, I only have to get rid of 3 of the top 50 RPI teams. I think we can eliminate Creighton, U-Mass and Ohio State from these teams. So based on RPI we have our 65 teams but are we missing any?

Actually I think there are a couple of intriguing teams not in the top 50 of RPI that do merit some consideration. VCU with a 24-7 record and a 56 RPI ranking, New Mexico with a 24-8 record and a 59 RPI, and Utah State with a 23-10 record and a 70RPI.

Let us look at these teams with the same additional Criteria

Team	RPI	W's	L's	1-100 W	1-100 L	SOS
VCU	56	24	17	3	3	160
New Mexico	59	24	8	6	6	169
Utah St.	70	23	10	6	4	156

Well, they are all viable, based on the W/L record you could make a case for inserting them into the table above, but I think the SOS kills them. Still, I would not be surprised if one of these three make the tournament. Later I'll have a projected seeding chart.