Looking at Drew

I have been trying to figure out a way to project what JD might achieve when he plays this year. As always I used the database at Baseball Musings. Needless to say he is hard to pigeonhole due to his injury history. I did find some very good information on his career. There are some things that do worry me:

• Against American League team at their parks his stats are:

Batting Average: .200

OBA: .287

Slugging: .300

• In forty games he has 4 home runs and 12 rbi's.
• He struck out 36 times and walked 16
• He also scored 13 times

In 3 games at fenway he had a .222 BA, .300 OBA, and a slugging % of .889. Of course the problem is that 3 games isn't a very good sample so how do we project his 81 games at Fenway?

Well, if you look at his last three years he averages 121 games played, batting .293, OBA of .415, and a slugging % of .532. If you project that over a 162 game period that would be 156 games started, 165 hits, 33 doubles, 7 triples, 29 home runs, 102 RBI's, 115 walks, and 121 K's.

How good of a projection is this? Not for sure, but it would represent a career high in games (146 2006), hits (158 2004), RBI's (100 2006) and strikeouts (116 2004). Looking at those numbers again maybe that isn't an outrageous of a projection. Will keep on thinking about ways his numbers should be weighted.