Saturday, January 13, 2007

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made
With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made
With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

Saturday, January 06, 2007

HOF III - Rice

Well, was working on this before the hall of fame ballots came out. Had saved it to my draft files because I was getting blurry eyed from looking at the numbers. My problem was that I kept on noticing when I was looking at Jim's career that another Red Sox player kept popping up in the equation, a person who is not considered a HOFer. As I sat on this news I found a post about this individual and Mr. Rice. Since he says it better than I could possibly do I suggest you go there and see why he will probably not be in the hall of fame. This would be the classic slippery slope in my opinion.

This time we are going to look at the reasons why Jim Rice should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Previous posts HOF I (David Wells) and HOF II (Curt Schilling).

As usual we start our post by looking at Rice's comparable players list:

  1. Orlando Cepeda (HOFer)
  2. Andres Galarraga
  3. Ellis Burks
  4. Duke Snider (HOFer)
  5. Joe Carter - possible
  6. Dave Parker
  7. Billy Williams (HOFer)
  8. Luis Gonzalez
  9. Willie Stargell (HOFer)
  10. Chili Davis

4 HOFers and one possible, not a bad beginning to promote his inclusion into the hall. So on to the second part of this advocacy.

Mr. Rice's career started with 24 games in 1974 and ended with 56 games in 1989. 16 years he played for the Sox playing in 1 World Series (he missed the 75 series due to injury). His first full year with the Sox was in 1975 where he played in 144 games batting .309 with 22 HR's and 102 RBI's and scored 92 runs. I've always wondered what might have been in that 75 series if Rice hadn't been hurt.

If we look at the 14 full seasons that he played we see that he started 1991 games playing in 2009. His batting average was an even .300, OBA of .354, Slugging of .507, OPS of .862 hitting 378 Home runs, scoring 1,221 runs and knocking in 1,410 runs.

2007 NFL playoffs RD 1

Hmmm, went 15 - 17 in the last two weeks of the season (125 - 131 overall), so my picks are definitely not something to take to the bank. The question is will the success of the underdogs in the regular season continue in the playoffs?

Heres my picks anyway:

  • Colts beat the Chiefs 35 - 31.
  • Cowboys vs Seahawks - not gonna do it, I can't even pull a castanza here. I have picked for the Cowboys and lost, picked against and lost this year. I just can't figure out my favorite team. Go Cowboys but I refuse to get off the fence on this game.
  • Patriots beat the Jets 21 - 18.
  • Giants beat the Eagles - 24 - 17 (give me a break Garcia?)
Have a good weekend.

Monday, January 01, 2007

HOF II - Schilling

The second look at how present or former Red Sox players stand as far as HOF possibilities. This time we are going to look at #38. HOF I is found here.

First lets look at comparable players:
Kevin Brown - Not a HOFer
Bob Welch - Not a HOFer
Orel Hershiser - Not a HOFer
Dazzy Vance - HOF
Mike Mussina - Possible HOF
David Cone - Not a HOFer
Milt Pappas - Not a HOFer
Lew Burdette - Not a HOFer
Don Drysdale - HOF
John Smoltz - Definite HOF

Out of ten you have 2 in the hall, 1 will be in the Hall and a possible Hall of Famer. Top of the line and he is off to a good start. So lets look at other criteria.

As I have said before, 10 year and 5 year comparisons can show some good stats to kick around in the bar. Lets look at his best ten year period:

1997 - 2006

Won 155 - lost 86 for a .643 % in 2121+ innings with a 3.41 ERA. The Top 10 in wins during that time period were:

  1. Randy Johnson - 176 and 83 in 2277+ innings with a 3.01 ERA.
  2. Greg Maddux - 168 and 99 in 2250+ innings with a 3.28 ERA
  3. Pedro - 158 and 61 in 1974+ innings with a 2.61 ERA
  4. Clemens - 156 and 67 in 2041+ innings with a 3.17 ERA
  5. Schilling
  6. Pettitte - 153 and 87 in 1916+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
  7. Glavine - 151 and 99 in 2193+ innings with a 3.47 ERA
  8. Mussina - 149 and 93 in 2072+ innings with a 3.67 ERA
  9. Moyer - 144 and 87 in 2073+ innings with a 4.00 ERA
  10. Bartolo Colon - 140 and 97 in 1876 innings with a 3.98 ERA

Curt is 5th in wins during that period, 7th in win % (minimum 100 wins), 7th in shut outs (minimum 100 wins), 5th in innings pitched (minimum 100 wins), 3rd in K's (minimum 100 wins), 6th in ERA and 3rd in K/9 (minimum 100 wins).

Look at the 4 people ahead of him in wins during those ten years. Each one is a certain HOF, Schilling is probably the demarcation line during that time period. Lets now look at his best 5 year period:

1998-2002

Schillings numbers are 89 wins 44 losses in 1175+ innings with a 3.33 ERA and a .656 Winning percentage. The top 10 in wins during that time were:

  1. Randy Johnson - 100 and 38 in 1274+innings with a 2.63 ERA.
  2. Greg Maddux - 89 and 44 in 1152 innings with a 2.88 ERA.
  3. Tom Glavine - 89 and 44 in 1148+ innings with a 3.31 ERA.
  4. Pedro - 87 and 24 in 980 innings with a 2.27 ERA.
  5. Curt
  6. Bartolo Colon - 81 and 42 in 1052+ innings with a 3.69 ERA.
  7. Roger Clemens - 80 and 33 in 1027 innings with a 3.70 ERA.
  8. David Wells - 79 and 36 in 982+ innings with a 4.10 ERA.
  9. Aaron Sele - 77 and 44 in 1004+ innings with a 4.37 ERA.
  10. Mussina - 77 and 53 in 1091+ innings with a 3.59 ERA.

Looking at this you see in order HOFer, HOFer, possible HOFer (most likely will win 300 games), Curt, not a HOFer, HOFer, not a HOFer, not a HOFer and a possible HOFer. 4 future inductees and 2 possible inductees. This is again a good thing for Curt's chances. Further more he is tied for sixth in Shut outs, 3rd in K's, 6th in ERA and 3rd in K's per 9. All of this makes it a good possibility that he will be inducted into the Hall.

Career wise lets look at the leader boards from 1997 to 2004 made the All Star game. In 2001 and 2002 #10 in MVP voting. In 1997 #4 in Cy Young voting and in 2001, 2002 and 2004 2nd in Cy Young. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 of era 8 of the 9 years (2000 only year not). League wins lead in 2001 and 2004, was second in 2002 and 5th in 1997. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 in WHIP, and led in 1992 and was 6th in 2006. Presently is 3rd among active players and 40th all time. In 1993, 1997 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top 10 in BB's / 9 IP leading in 2002 and 2006. K's / 9IP in 1993, 1996 - 1999, 2001 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top ten and career is 12th all time. He has 3015 K's all time which is 4th among active pitchers and 14th all time. K's to walks was 5th in 1993 and from 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 leading in the years 2001 - 2004 and led in 2006 and is 2 all time. Adjusted ERA is 12th active and 48th all time.

Baseball reference has a black-ink test which has Curt's rating at 42 (average HOF is 40), the gray-ink test where he has a rating of 204 (average HOF is 185), HOF Standards has a rating of 46 (average HOF is 50) and HOF monitor rating of 167 (Likely HOFer is >100). His overall rank in these categories is 33rd, 34th, 48th and 36th.

So, what does this all mean? A very close call on the HOF but should make it. What will push him over the top? How about these facts - the 2001 World series where he started 3 games with a 1 - 0 record, pitching 21+ innings with 26 K's, 2 BB's and a sparkling 1.69 ERA to share MVP with Randy Johnson. 2004 ALCS bloody sock game (6) where he went 7 innings giving up 1 ER on a HR with 4 k's and no BB's. These are the type of games that stick in voters minds, coming up big on the big stage can take a player from possible to Hall of fame stature.

Overall in the playoffs Curt is 8 and 2 in 15 games with a sparkling 2.06 ERA. He struck out 104 batters and only walked 22 in those games in 109+ innings. That is the quintessential definition of big game player.

2007 Jan 1 Bowl Games

While we wait patiently for the game of the day (hint it stars a RB by the name of McFadden) , figured that I would give you my picks of today's bowls.

First in the Outback I have Tennessee whipping Penn State. SEC vs Big 10, I'll go with the stronger conference.

Cotton bowl we have Auburn vs Nebraska, and while Nebraska has improved over the last 2 years I think that Auburn is the much better team. The only worry is that Auburn tends to lose these types of games. Still, Auburn beats Nebraska.

Gator bowl has West Virginia vs Georgia Tech. Tech has improved but get real, the ACC has become an embarrassment when it comes to football. West Virginia continues to make the Big East look good by running over the rambling wreck.

Arkansas vs Wisconsin in the Capitol one bowl (didn't this use to be the tangerine bowl?) - toss up but my heart says go hogs and whips the badgers proving that the Big Ten is really a two team conference.

Rose bowl - USC goes out and whips Michigan.

Boise State crashed the BSC series this year by getting an invite to the Fiesta bowl and that is good for them, but OU wants to prove that if not for a ridiculous call at the end of the Oregon game they would be playing Ohio State. I hope it is close but I expect OU to win.