2008 March Madness Sweet Sixteen Day 1 Preview

Well, lets recap, round 1 I went 23-9 thanks to a lousy 9-7 record on day two of the round. In round 2 I went 9-7 thanks to Davidson, Michigan St. and West Virginia. Of course if I had been smart I would have realized that Kentucky and Baylor weren't going to win their first game let alone make the sweet sixteen. Still, I do have 3 of my four final four teams in this thing, so I am not going to be too bummed out.

So, tonight we have four games, West Virginia vs Xavier at 7:10 p.m. which I think might be a very good game. I'm going to pull for the Musketeers but do not count out West Virginia. Huggins has made this a good solid team that rebounds and plays man-to-man defense, a very tough man-to-man defense. I still give the edge to the Musketeers.

At 7:27 p.m. we get the Washington State vs UNC game. I would like to say that Washington State has no chance but they are a tough team. Still, UNC should handle the Cougars.

The 9:40 game has one of the Cinderella stories, Western Kentucky vs UCLA. The only thing that would make me smile more is to see Western Kentucky and Washington State win tonight, but UCLA will agoniziling sneak this game out in the final four minutes.

The last game has Louisville vs Tennessee. Since I have Tennessee going to the championship game, I am sticking with that initial prediction. Tennessee wins a close game but prevails to face UNC in the regional final.

Inane stat of the day - in the last 15 tournaments the two conferences that have sent the most teams to the final four (ACC - 13, SEC - 12), have only one team left in the tournament. If Tennessee makes the final four then it will be tied.

2008 March Madness Round 1 & 2 Recaps

Well that was an interesting first two rounds. Looking at my picks, well lets just say that I had the east bracket pegged, other than that, well, the only good thing to say is that I have six of the great eights still alive and three of the final four still alive. How about Davidson!!!!!

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
UNC	UNC
Indiana		UNC
Notre Dame	Wash. St.
Wash St.			Tennessee
Oklahoma	Louisville
Louisville		Tennessee
Butler	Tennessee
Tennessee
Kansas	Kansas
UNLV		Kansas
Clemson	Clemson
Vanderbilt			Kansas
Kansas St.	Wisconsin
Wisconsin		Georgetown
Gonzaga	Georgetown
Georgetown
Memphis	Memphis
Oregon		Memphis
Michigan St.	Pittsburgh		Memphis
Pittsburgh
Kentucky	Kentucky
Stanford		Texas
Miami	Texas
Texas
UCLA	UCLA
Texas A & M		UCLA
Drake	Drake
Connecticut			Duke
Baylor	Baylor
Xavier		Duke
West Virginia	Duke
Duke

A lot of misses once you get past the East. Still that is what makes this tournament so much fun, even when I knew that the team I picked was going to lose, I still found myself rooting for the Western Kentucky's, Davidsons, and Siena's. Will take a look at the third round after I finish watching Opening Day in Japan and have some time to look at who is left. Chow!!!!

Update: I noticed I had Duke going out in the first round, corrected.

2008 March Madness Round 1 Recap Day 1

This right here is what makes March Madness special. A mighty fine game that went right down to the wire. Not often does a 15 seed pull the upset in the first round (1991, 1993, 1997 and 2001) being the only times in this tournament history. An ACC team seeded 2 has never lost this game. In fact there have been only six # 2 teams that have previously won by 3 or fewer points their opening round game:

1. Arkansas beat Texas Southern - 79 - 78 in 1995
2. Tennessee beat Winthrop - 63 - 61 in 2006
3. Cincinatti beat N. Arizona - 65 - 62 in 1998
4. Duke beat Murray State - 71 - 68 in 1997
5. Kansas beat Utah State - 64 - 61 in 2003
6. Wake Forest beat E. Tenn. St. - 76 - 73 in 2003

Only Arkansas and Kansas advanced past the second round, surprisingly both made the championship games, in those tournaments. All other #2's won their games by more than a basket. In fact the average score is 80.46 to 64.09. In fact only 21 times (counting last night) in 89 wins has the number 2 team not won by double digits. Just to emphasize how rare last nights game was, 32 of the 89 wins were by greater than 20 points.

Well, that is the inane statistical portion of this post. Some pretty good games yesterday. Some stinkers also, still I'll take my 14-2 record after day one of this tournament, though I have to admit, what the hell was I thinking when I picked Kentucky! Geez!

Of course I blame the coach in the Ky game. Twice Marquette made sizable runs of 12-0 and 12-2 before he called a time out. Both cases the game clock moved 4+ minutes with his team not scoring or only scoring once. You just can't let that happen in a NCAA game.

Best game of yesterday was the Duke game, but the Xavier / Georgia game was also a pretty good one to watch. Xavier played like a 14 seed yesterday for the first half, but really turned it on in the second half. Well, enough rambling for now, so we will catch you later. Go hogs!!!! Soooie, pig Soooie!!!!!
Some good games today also.

2008 March Madness Round 1

Finally!!! The best three extended weekends (thu-sun) of sports is here. Should be a good tournament and as always, I will be glued to the TV! So, before the first game tips off lets get the picks out of the way!
First lets look at the East Bracket Winners

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
UNC	UNC
Indiana	.	UNC
Notre Dame	Wash St.
Wash. St.			Tennessee
Oklahoma	Louisville
Louisville		Tennessee
Butler	Tennessee
Tennessee

Not a lot of upsets there, in fact there are none. I think this bracket does have some possible ones though. I can easily see Indiana continuing their funk and being beaten by Arkansas. It is also possible that Notre Dame gets beat by George Mason and if I was the Butler Bulldogs I would be real worried about South Alabama. Still I just don't think that the upsets will happen.

Midwest Bracket Winners

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
Kansas	Kansas
UNLV		Kansas
Clemson	Clemson
Vanderbilt			Kansas
Kansas St.	Wisconsin
Wisconsin		Georgetown
Gonzaga	Georgetown
Georgetown

The only upset here (I don't consider a 5 over a 4 an upset) is the Kansas State win. While both teams have stud freshmen, I just think that Kansas State has more players and should squeak by USC.

Other interesting games in this bracket also. The UNLV vs Kent game should be good and so will the Clemson vs Villanova game. I also would not be surprised to see a weak 4 seed lose to Siena. The Gonzaga vs Davidson should be an intriguing game also.

South Bracket Winners

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
Memphis	Memphis
Oregon		Memphis
Michigan St.	Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh			Memphis
Kentucky	Kentucky
Stanford		Texas
Miami	Texas
Texas

Upset special here as Kentucky makes a surprising run to the sweet sixteen. The other first round game that I will be watching is the Michigan State vs Temple game. Temple could pull off the upset. I would also like to see St. Mary's beat Miami, that would be so sweet after the bubble babble about the ACC only getting four teams in the tourney.

West Bracket Winners

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
UCLA	UCLA
Texas A & M		UCLA
Drake	Drake
Connecticut			Duke
Baylor	Baylor
Xavier		Duke
West Virginia	Duke
Duke

Upsets in this region - Baylor says good by to the Dave Bliss era and makes the sweet 16!!! I also think that Drake can and should beat the Huskies of UConn.

In my final four I have Tennessee beating Kansas and Memphis beating Duke. This would set up a rematch of an earlier game where #1 Memphis lost to #2 Tennessee earlier this year. This time though, I have Memphis winning! Well that is my Sheet of Integrity Bracket. Now its time to watch some Basketball!!!

2008 NCAA Seeds

Ok, lets look at the seedings!!!! This is how I would see the teams assuming no upsets by Georgia or Illinois.

Seed	Reg 1	Reg 2	Reg 3	Reg 4
1	UNC	Memphis	UCLA	Kansas
2	G'Town	Duke	Texas	Tennessee
3	Vandy	Louisville	Wisc	Stanford
4	Drake	Clemson	Pitt	Indiana
5	Xavier	Mich. St.	Butler	U-Conn
6	Oklahoma	Kent St.	Marquette	BYU
7	UNLV	Kentucky	Miss. St.	Notre Dame
8	Arkansas	USC	W. Virginia	Wash. St.
9	Gonzaga	Miami (fl)	Dayton	Illinois St.
10	St. Mary's	Kansas St.	Arizona	Davidson
11	Tex. A & M	W. Kentucky	St. Joseph's	Baylor
12	Temple	S. Alabama	Mississippi	Purdue
13	George Mason	Cornell	Belmont	Austin Peay
14	Boise St.	Cal St. Ful.	Siena	Oral Roberts
15	San Diego	Winthrop	UMBC	Portland St.
16	Miss. Val. St. Coppin St.	Mount St. Mary's	Tx-Arlington	American

Ok, if either Georgia or Illinois wins, you remove S. Alabama and place that team in that slot for the region. If both teams win then you replace Mississippi.

Note - While I was working on this they announced that Mount St. Mary's would face Coppin State in the Play in game. This is because the NCAA does not like to have two historical Black Colleges to face each other in the play in game.

2008 Mens Tourney

Well it is that time of the year again, the best three weeks of college Basketball is about to kick off. Today there are five tournaments looking to get the automatic bids while teams on the bubble sit around and root, root, root for teams that are already in the dance to win.

First up is the Southland and the ACC tournaments at 1:00 p.m. this afternoon. Basically these are meaningless games as the winners won't cause any angst among the bubbleites (is that a word?). The Southland will only get one team in the dance and both UNC and Clemson are locks for the tournament which means they are only playing for their final seeding in Clemsons case and bragging rights (UNC is a mortal lock for a 1 seed).

Next up is the Big-12 tournament game at 3:00 p.m., with both of these teams (Texas and Kansas) also just playing for bragging rights and their final seeding. With the Tennessee loss yesterday (yeah boy!!! sooooie pig sooooie!!!) the winer of this game could become a #1 seed. Look for Kansas to win this game by 4+.

The last two championships though will have the VCU's of the world though reaching for the Maalox. At 3:30 the Big-10 and the SEC tip off and both have underdogs that can cause havoc in the brackets.

Wisconsin plays Illinois in the Big-10 and the fighting Illini are not a good team this year. With a 16-18 record an upset win here would leave a more worthy team looking in instead of putting on the dancing shoes. Wisconsin will be ready though so switch the tube to ESPN2 and watch the Georgia Bulldogs play the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is the upset special of the day as the Dogs can beat Arkansas (see 1/19/2008 for the last time these two teams met). Still, the hat is ready and the beer is cold, so I am ready for this game!!!!

Who will make the cut? Well, let us look at some RPI numbers and try to make a good guess for the teams.

Team	RPI	W's	L's	Bid
Memphis	3rd	32	1	Champ
UCLA	6th	29	3	Champ
Drake	10th	26	4	Champ
Butler	17th	29	3	Champ
Pittsburgh	19th	24	9	Champ
Kent St.	23rd	27	6	Champ
UNLV	26th	24	7	Champ
Davidson	36th	25	6	Champ
W. Ky.	41st	25	6	Champ
ORU	53rd	23	8	Champ
Temple	57th	20	12	Champ
George Mason	62nd	23	10	Champ
Cornell	66th	21	5	Champ
Siena	68th	22	10	Champ
Belmont	78th	24	8	Champ
Austin Peay	84th	24	10	Champ
Cal St. Fullerton	86th	22	8	Champ
American	89th	21	11	Champ
UMBC	90th	22	8	Champ
Portland St.	91st	21	9	Champ
Boise St.	92nd	23	8	Champ
San Diego	95th	20	13	Champ
Winthrop	109th	20	11	Champ
Mount St. Mary's	160th	18	14	Champ
Miss. Valley St.	237th	14	15	Champ
Coppin St.	246th	13	20	Champ

Just looking at RPI's there are fourteen teams that are presently in the dance would not be in this thing if we went by RPI alone to decide the contestants. Ah the beauty of March Madness!

So, who then is on the bubble? Well, lets take a gander at the top 50 (the Southland will also be above 65) RPI teams . (L means a Lock, A = Auto)

Tennessee(L), UNC(L), Memphis(A), Duke(L), Texas(L), UCLA(A), Georgetown(L), Kansas(L), Xavier(L), Drake(A), Vanderbilt(L), Louisville(L), Wisconsin(L), Michigan St.(L), Stanford(L), Indiana(L), Butler(A), Connecticut(L), Pittsburgh(A), Marquette(L), BYU(L), Clemson(L), Kent St.(A), Notre Dame(L), Oklahoma(L), UNLV(A), Washington St.(L), West Virginia(L), USC(L), Gonzaga(L), Arkansas(L), Miami (FL)(L), Dayton, Illinois State, Mississippi State(L), Davidson(A), Arizona(L), South Alabama, Saint Mary's(L), Texas A & M, Western Kentucky(A), St. Joseph's, Baylor(L), Massachusetts, Purdue(L), Ohio State, Kentucky(L), Mississippi, Creighton, and Kansas St.(L). (autos and L's make for 58).

Those are some big names in that top 50 and some surprising names in that mix (South Alabama, St. Joseph's just to name two of them). Will all of these teams make the dance? Not a chance. So let's look at some other criteria to decide the teams that will be leaping for joy!

Team	RPI	W's	L's	1-100 W	1-100 L	SOS
Creighton	49	20	10	4	7	71
Dayton	33	21	10	9	6	25
Illinois St.	34	23	9	5	5	65
U-Mass	44	21	10	6	7	66
Mississippi	48	21	10	7	4	70
Ohio St.	46	19	13	7	11	10
S. Alabama	38	24	6	4	3	120
St. Joseph's	42	21	11	8	7	51
Texas A & M	40	23	9	8	9	64

That is nine teams for only six spots, so actually this isn't too bad, I only have to get rid of 3 of the top 50 RPI teams. I think we can eliminate Creighton, U-Mass and Ohio State from these teams. So based on RPI we have our 65 teams but are we missing any?

Actually I think there are a couple of intriguing teams not in the top 50 of RPI that do merit some consideration. VCU with a 24-7 record and a 56 RPI ranking, New Mexico with a 24-8 record and a 59 RPI, and Utah State with a 23-10 record and a 70RPI.

Let us look at these teams with the same additional Criteria

Team	RPI	W's	L's	1-100 W	1-100 L	SOS
VCU	56	24	17	3	3	160
New Mexico	59	24	8	6	6	169
Utah St.	70	23	10	6	4	156

Well, they are all viable, based on the W/L record you could make a case for inserting them into the table above, but I think the SOS kills them. Still, I would not be surprised if one of these three make the tournament. Later I'll have a projected seeding chart.