Saturday, September 15, 2007

Red Sox 07 Game 149 Preview

Nyy@ Bos
C. Wang18-6, 3.69J. Beckett18-6, 3.27
Yankees84 - 63Red Sox89 - 59
Saturday, September, 15      Fenway Park  ✠ 3:55 PM ET
American League
EastWLGBL 101 R W1 R LX WX L
New York84634.58-214188859

ESPN.Com Preview .
Yahoo's Preview .
ESPN.Com after the game Recap.
MLB.Com Press Pass
From MLB.Com Scouting Report
Baseball-Reference - Preview

Yankees: Wang was a winner once more in his last effort against Kansas City, twirling seven innings of three-run ball to win his 18th game and fifth straight start. Now comes a true matchup of Cy Young candidates, both having terrific seasons in the midst of the baseball's biggest rivalry. Wang last faced Boston on Aug. 30 at Yankee Stadium and beat them 5-0, limiting the Red Sox to one hit while striking out five for win No. 16.

Red Sox: Beckett has been a machine for the Red Sox all year long. A leading contender for the American League Cy Young Award, Beckett is coming off a 3-2 victory over the Orioles. In that one, the righty gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out eight. Beckett is holding opponents to a .245 average. Beckett is 1-1 with a 5.49 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Wang
D. Pedroia63200100.500
K. Youkilis197300181.368
D. Ortiz2712302854.444
M. Ramirez2213002543.591
J.D. Drew90000000.000
M. Lowell224100032.182
J. Varitek131001123.077
C. Crisp205010012.250
J. Lugo286100155.214

A .307 average would be pretty good but this can be so much better. First I would sit Lowell and his anemic average and move Youkilis to third and add Hinske. Hinske is 10/22 with 2 home runs against Wang. I also might switch Lugo and Cora since Cora is 5/18 with home run. Mirabelli is also better than Varitek but I don't expect Doug is able to play, still Cash has to be better than Tek's anemic .077 batting average. I also would sit Drew.

Just by adding Cora and Hinske you raise the line ups average to .359 with a .603 Slugging %.

This year Wang has a .280 BAA left handed batters. Load up the Lefties! Overall his BAA is .262.

Historical Pitching Lines

Wang1054065 1/37331631264.271.596.07
Beckett733039 2/35433622327.491.925.67

This Years Pitching Lines
Beckett311019 2/3301216185.491.836.56

Overall Wang does not have bad numbers vs the Sox. A 4.30 ERA will win you a lot of games if you are a Yankee pitcher which makes it hard to believe that he is only 5 and 4. This year though he has been lights out as his 3.24 ERA is over one run less and he has gone deeper into games, though that is not much of an improvement.

Beckett has improved more though as ERA is two runs better and he goes 1 inning deeper. Still, what worries you is that he has no as in none as in zero quality starts. Another slug fest in the making? Yes I think it is as Wang has a career 5.83 ERA at Fenway in five starts and 29 1/3 innings. Those numbers include two quality start numbers (his record at fenway is 2-2).

Beckett at Fenway vs the Yankees has a 8.20 ERA in three starts (18 2/3). Hard to imagine that he is 1-1 at Fenway. Actually after last nights fiasco, right now I have no, zip, none, as in zero confidence in this team. It would not surprise me if this game ended up being a blow out for the spankees.

This Date in History:

2005 W L GB RS RA
Bos 85 61 - 823 733
NYY 83 62 1.5 786 700

1978 W L GB RS RA
NYY 89 57 - 673 522
Bos 87 60 2.5 716 608

2007 W L GB RS RA
Bos 89 59 - 794 601
NYY 84 63 4.5 866 697

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

No comments: