Thursday, October 11, 2007

Red Sox vs Indians Game 2 2007 ALCS

2007 A. L. C. S. Game 2
Cle@ Bos
F. Carmona
0-0, 0.00
C. Schilling
0-0, 0.00
Red Sox
Saturday, October, 13    Fenway Park  ✠ 8:00 PM ET
ESPN.Com Preview .
Yahoo's Preview .
ESPN.Com after the game Recap.
MLB.Com Press Pass
From MLB.Com Scouting Report
Baseball-Reference - Preview

Indians: Any concerns over whether Carmona could carry on his dominant 2007 season while under the glare of the October spotlight were erased in a hurry. Carmona was utterly brilliant in Game 2 of the ALDS, holding a potent Yankees lineup to a single run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts in nine innings. The lone run came on a solo shot from Melky Cabrera. Carmona was merely picking up where he left off in a dominant 19-win 2007 regular season (including a 5-0 September in which he strung together a 1.78 ERA). Formerly reliant solely on his devastating mid-90s sinker, Carmona has learned over the last few months to more effectively turn to his changeup and slider. He will be returning to the site of his 2006 debacle as the Tribe?s closer. He blew two saves in Fenway Park. But in his lone start against the Red Sox this season, he blanked them for eight innings and allowed just four hits.

Red Sox: Schilling's middle name might as well be Big Game. Throughout his career, all he has done is come up big in October. He certainly started this postseason in dominant fashion, firing seven shutout innings in Boston's series-clinching 9-1 win over the Angels. In that game, Schilling walked one and struck out four. In 16 postseason starts, Schilling is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA. All three times Schilling has participated in a League Championship Series -- 1993 for the Phillies, 2001 with the Diamondbacks and 2004 in Boston -- he has helped push his team to the World Series. Lifetime in LCS play, Schilling is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA. Schilling was sharp in his lone start against Cleveland this season, earning the win on May 28 by giving up one run over seven innings. Schilling went 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA in 13 starts at Fenway Park this season.
Inside Edge scouting reports here and here.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Carmona
D. Pedroia20000000.000
K. Youkilis30000021.000
D. Ortiz42001302.500
M. Ramirez20000011.000
M. Lowell00000000.000
J.D. Drew30000000.000
J. Varitek21000010.500
C. Crisp41000001.250
J. Lugo00000000.000

Not a lot of history here and that .200 reflects the lack of history. Since it such a small sample size I am not sure what the value of this history is worth. I dou know you may see Cora playing SS but I really doubt it since Lugo seems to have hit his stride. It is possible that Pedroia will sit though. Cora is 2 for 4 vs Carmona.

This year Carmona vs lefties - .275/.333/.377 and righties .216/.280/.321 and overall .248/.309/.352.

Historical Pitching Lines

Schilling522035 2/3351557353.791.186.4

The two losses are from last year when Carmona had his melt downs as a closer. Papi won one of those games with a massive home run in the ninth. The other win was on a ninth inning hit by Loretta.

This Years Pitching Lines

Obviously Schilling and Carmona pitched well this year against the opposing teams. You may remember Carmona's start in Cleveland. The night after the Sox beat C.C. 1-0 Carmona beat Beckett 1-0.

Other things to look for:
  1. Fausto this year has won 19 games, mainly due to his ability to set down batters 1-2-3. His percentage is 41% while the MLB average is 31%.
  2. Fausto has 3 pitch or less PA's 55% of the time, MLB average is 47%.
  3. Carmon also has 4 or less pitch PA's 73% of the time, MLB average is 65%.
  4. Only 25% of his runners score while the MLB average is 36% of the time.
For Schilling there isn't a lot to say. He is 9-2 in post season play with a 1.93 ERA. His start in the ALDS against the Angels shows that he still has command of his fastball and he threw some great splits. Even though he is not clocked in the mid-90's he has shown he knows how to pitch.

Look for Schilling to step up big tonight and I would not be surprised to see these issues being his keys:

  1. 67% of his first pitch is a strike (MLB -58%)
  2. 90% of the time his first or second pitch is a strike (MLB - 85%).
  3. Most of his pitch categories are above the MLB average with only his swing and miss counts and the % of outs that are K's in four pitches or less (.11 / MLB -.14).
Enjoy the game people. Going away for the weekend, so not sure when I will be able to post. Hopefully the recap at the least.

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

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