Michigan at Ohio State

UPDATE:
Game over OSU wins by 4, not the defensive struggle that I thought it would be. We will next see OSU in the BCS championship game. Troy Smith becomes only the second QB from Ohio State to beat Michigan 3 times in his career.

Michigan started the game by scoring a quick touchdown which was quickly followed by OSU taking it to the wolverines for 3 unanswered scores. I thought these were supposed to be two pretty good defensive teams. Not looking that way right now as it's 28 - 14 OSU at the half. Woody must be spinning in his grave watching the buckeyes throwing the ball around like its a hot potato.

Still a pretty good game going on you just have wonder if the Wolverines will be able to make any adjustments at the Half.

College Football picks week 12

Its saturday and that means college football, yea boy!!!! Big game today, you may have heard of it, seems there are two teams that are undefeated and ranked 1 and 2. The winner secures a place in the BCS championship and the loser, well the Rose bowl at worst but maybe a rematch. Could be an interesting couple of weeks.

Week 12 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Michigan State	8	Penn State	Penn State	W
Indiana	7	Purdue	Purdue	W
Illinois	3	Northwestern	Illinois	L
Virginia Tech	4	Wake Forest	Wake Forest	L
Maryland	5	Boston College	Boston College	W
Auburn	9	Alabama	Auburn	W
Washington	6	Washington St.	Washington St.	L
Utah	2	Air Force	Utah	W
California	10	USC	USC	W
Michigan	1	Ohio State	Michigan	L

I really look for the Michigan - Ohio State game to be a nail biter, I think both teams are evenly matched. My prediction is Michigan 21 - OSU 20.

Look for Auburn to seal Shula's firing at the end of the Year. I just don't see the tigers losing 2 in a row. The rest are pretty much in line with the favorites.

Of course there is one other big game today, Arkansas has a chance to clinch their division in the SEC. Go hogs.

Simmons dumps Doc

Read this yesterday and forgot to post about it. Typical Simmons column but the timing as usual meant that of course the Celtics would go out and trash the Pacers. Can you write more of these type of columns with those results please?

Renteria vs Cabrera

WEEI (actually its Glenn "fat b******" Ordway most of the time), has been beating up on Theo the last couple of days. One of the common gripes they have is that Theo totally blew the Renteria signing, he didn't do his homework yada yada yada. Well, I went to the Day by Day database at Baseball Musings and pulled up their career numbers.

There are a couple of things that I remember before the Renteria signing:

1. Cabrera kept on saying that he wanted Renteria money
2. Renteria was the top rated shortstop on the open market
3. The fans wanted Orlando to stay
4. Renteria was the gold glove shortstop of the NL.

So, lets take a look at their numbers when you compare them side by side:

Renteria vs Cabrera 1st 3 years of their careers

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	1996 - 98	.288	381	1565	237	450	57	8	12	114	126	254
Cabrera	1999-2001	.259	378	1430	159	370	89	12	35	190	86	120

Renteria had a BA 20 points higher, scored 1/3 more runs, had 80 more hits and 40 more walks. Cabrera was only better in the power numbers and his strike out rate was lower.

Now lets look at the 5 years immediately before the signing.

Renteria vs Cabrera 2000 - 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	00 - 04	.293	727	2772	405	812	171	7	60	388	255	339
Cabrera	00 - 04	.270	746	2855	344	770	194	13	61	349	207	253

Again we see higher batting average, runs hits, RBI and walks. Cabrera did better on the power numbers (except HR's). The only area that Orlando really beat Edgar was in the strike outs. If I am Theo and I have a player who is demanding Renteria number but isn't putting up Renteria numbers, don't I go for Renteria? Why, settle for second when you can have 1st?

So, so far I haven't seen anything that makes me want Orlando over Renteria. So, let's look at their 2004 numbers, maybe we'll find something there?

Renteria vs Cabrera 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	2004	.287	148	586	84	168	37	0	10	72	39	78
Cabrera	2004	.264	158	618	74	163	38	3	10	62	39	54

Well, no luck there as Edgar has the higher average, more runs, more hits, almost even in doubles, same number of home runs and walks, but has more RBI's. Now if you look at these numbers really hard, it even appears that this is a normal type of year for Renteria.

To sum up my feelings, Theo would have been foolish to have not gone after Edgar. 20 / 20 hindsight showed that Edgar couldn't handle the Boston pressure but you couldn't have been sure of that before hand. So, drop this Renteria crap, Theo made a decision based on good solid reasoning and I am tired of hearing how he screwed up by not going after Orlando.

Nfl week 10 and NCAA week 11 recaps.

So, went 8 and 8 this week in the nfl and 6 and 4 on the college games, not great but did improve my ego. The 8 and 8 also moved me up into the 82 percentile. Obviously, not a lot of people are making money off of their ESPN picks.

NCAA is really starting to get interesting. If the Razorbacks win on saturday they will face Florida in the SEC championship game. Would like to see them settle this saturday so that I don't have to sweat out the LSU game.

Matsuzaka watch is now 2 hours and 45 minutes. tick, tick, tick.

Matsuzaka watch continues

Wish I knew the code for a countdown clock. Any hints out there people? Well, it's just past 23:00 here on the east coast, which means less than 21 hours for the suspense to be over with as far as our favorite Japanese pitcher.

You can always pass the time by looking at the different sides of Mt. Fuji.

Even Madden 07 is confused

Well, after the first 14 games I am 7 and 7, which is a vast improvement over last weeks three wins. Those of you who have been following my meager efforts this year probably noticed that I added the Madden 07 results which I got from ESPN.com. Well, this week he went 7 and 7 also so this game simulation was no better than I was this week.

Of course I will take 7 and 7 since I lost the first 4 games this week. So, bringing out the rose colored glasses I prefer to think that I went 7 and 3 when the going got rough.

Razorbacks move into the top 5

I felt confident that with 4 of the top 10 losing this week that Arkansas would move into the top 8 and I was right. Todays poll have the razorbacks at their highest since 1988 as they jump six spots to number 5, right behind USC. Yeah boy!!!!

NFL week 10

Well through week 9 after winning only 3 games last week my record is 62 and 66. Its funny how I have a losing record but in the Pigskin Pick'em contest at ESPN.com I am in the 76 percentile with 21,839 ahead of me. 8 weeks where I go 10 and 6 or better would probably move me into the 90 percentile.

To the picks:

Week 10 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result	W / L
Minnesota	- 5 1/2	Green Bay	Minnesota	Min 17 - GB 23	L
Baltimore	- 7 1/2	Tennessee	Baltimore	Bal 27 - Tenn 26	L
Jacksonville	- 10 1/2	Houston	Jacksonville	Jax 10 - Hou 13	L
Kansas City	- 1 1/2	Miami	Kansas City	KC 10 - Mia 13	L
New England	- 10 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	NE 14 - NYJ 17	W
San Diego	- 1 1/2	Cincinnati	San Diego	SD 49 - Cin 41	W
Detroit	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Detroit	Det 13 - SF 19	L
Philadelphia	- 6 1/2	Washington	Philadelphia	Phi 27 - Was 3	W
Indianapolis	- 12 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo	Ind 17 - Buf 16	W
Atlanta	- 7 1/2	Cleveland	Atlanta	Atl 13 - Cle 17	L
Denver	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Den 17 - Oak 13	W
Pittsburgh	- 4 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	Pit 38 - NO 31	L
Seattle	- 4 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Sea 24 - STL 22	W
NY Giants	- 2 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	NYG 20 - Chi 20	W
Carolina	- 9 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Monday	Night
Dallas	- 6 1/2	Arizona	Dallas	Dal 27 - Arz 10	W

Minn vs Green Bay - Minnesota at home and Green Bay is struggling. Madden 07 has GB winning outright.

Baltimore at Tennessee - In games Baltimore is favored by 7 or greater the Ravens have covered every time. Madden 07 picks Tenn.

Jacksonville vs Houston - Jacksonville is one of those teams that drives me nuts. Madden 07 - Jacksonville.

Kansas City at Miami - KC is on a roll and playing within itself. Madden 07 - Miami wins outright.

NY Jets at New England - Patriots have not covered a game at home yet. Madden 07 - New England.

San Diego at Cincinnati - Cincinnati is struggling and San Diego plays ball control. Madden 07 - Cincinnati wins.

Detroit vs San Francisco - Detroit is also playing better than expected. 3/4 times they cover at home and San Francisco is horrible. Madden 07 - San Fran covers.

Philadelphia vs Washington - Division rivals and I just don't see the Eagles losing again, in fact I expect a 10 point win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Indianapolis vs Buffalo - Double point spreads Indy struggles, plus their defense is terrible. Another shoot out won by the Colts. Madden 07 - Colts cover easily.

Atlanta vs Cleveland - Atlanta at home favored greater than 7 points has covered every time. Another blow out win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Denver at Oakland - Division rival (hated division rivals), Plummer still struggling. Oakland covers the spread.

Pittsburgh vs New Orleans - how can a 2 and 6 team be favored over the 6 and 2 team. New Orleans wins outright. Madden 07 - 1 point loss by the Saints.

Seattle vs St. Louis - first game was a 3 pointer won by Seahawks. These two teams usually split, look for that to continue. St. Louis outright. Madden 07 - Seahawks cover.

NY Giants vs Chicago - to much yapping this week out of New York. I expect the Bears to come roaring out the gate and win going away. Madden 07 - 3 point win by the Giants.

Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Carolina hasn't covered at home all year and haven't covered when favored over 7. Tampa Bay stays within a touchdown. Madden 07 - Carolina covers easily.

Dallas at Arizona - former rivals, Dallas covers on the road 40 % of the time but Arizona is still in a free fall. Madden 07 - Dallas in a rout.

1 more win needed

Well, Arkansas held on to win 31 to 14. Only 1 more win needed to make the championship game. Game Stats below:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	17	20
Total Yards	268	426
Passing	172	168
Rushing	96	258
Possession	28:05	31:55

Since Louisville, California and Auburn lost earlier, I definetly think this game will put the hogs in the top 8 in the next polls.

Veterans Day

Being a veteran, I would like to say thanks to all those who are serving overseas now and have served in the past. To those on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, keep your wits about you and continue to do what you do with pride and honor. God bless you all.

Arkansas - Tennessee at the Half

Tennessee 7
Arkansas 28

Razorbacks looking sharp but I remember the Tennessee - Georgia game earlier this year where Tennessee looked like a sure loser only to come roaring back after the half to win the game 51 to 33. The Volunteers have an explosive offense that can roll up the points. So, I am not breathing easy yet.

Half Time Stats:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	9	11
Total Yards	121	266
Passing	64	86
Rushing	57	180
Penlties	4 - 20	1 - 15
Possession	14:59	15:01

Pretty much domination up and down the stats. Lets go Hogs.

Beta Blogger

Got tired of seeing the blogger message begging me to switch to Beta. Switched earlier today and as you may have noticed I also changed the lay out of the blog. Am not sure that beta is better, but it seems to be working fairly well. What is nice is the publishing is so much quicker than before.

I also like the labels for different categories. Makes it a lot easier for me to find previous posts for reference reasons. I will have to think about the programming part of the beta, since I had made changes to the template on the old system. It appears that I have to look at the Java programming to also try and get cute with this template.

Initial thoughts? hmmm, will wait and see.

Tennessee at Arkansas

Make no doubt about it, today's game just got a little bit more important for the Hogs. As we speak, Florida is losing to South Carolina and Auburn got destroyed by Georgia.

The Razorbacks need to win 2 of their next 3 games to advance to the SEC championship game against Florida. A win tonight though would probably mean that they would jump up in the polls with losses already this week by #3 Louisville and #5 Auburn (already defeated by Arkansas). If South Carolina was to hold on and beat #4 Florida, then the #11 Razorbacks could leap all the way to 7 in the country.

Update: Florida just moved in front 17 - 16

Update II: Florida holds on for a 17 - 16 win.

Feeling blue?

While waiting for the game to start (t-119 mintes), decided to cruise by Scot Adams Dilbert Blog. It is always good to have a little bit of humor each day, and this is one of those blogs that always brngs a smile to my face. I especially liked his final words on his to tip or not to tip post.

Why can’t I be afraid of something normal, like North Korea?

College Football picks week 11

Well week 11 of the college games is here. Last week was able to go 7 and 3, bringing my yearly total for this contest to 77 and 23.

Time for my picks:

Week 11 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Wisconsin	5	Iowa	Wisconsin	Win
North Carolia State	6	Clemson	Clemson	Win
Minnesota	3	Michigan St.	Minnesota	Win
Georgia	4	Auburn	Auburn	Loss
South Carolina	2	Florida	Florida	Win
Pittsburgh	7	Connecticut	Pittsburgh	Loss (ot)
Nebraska	8	Texas A & M	Texas A & M	Loss
Alabama	9	LSU	LSU	Win
Oregon	10	USC	USC	Win
Tennesse	1	Arkansas	Tennesse	Loss

Should be some good games today, with a heavy impact on BCS matchups, ones to closely watch are the Wisconsin - Iowa, the Tennessee - Arkansas game is usually pretty good and the hogs need to win to continue to have control of their own destiny.

Simmons sums up the Celtics

The closing quote from Simmons latest NBA column:

(That's right: The same guy who once joked that NBA Entertainment should release a "Rick Adelman's Greatest Playoff Collapses" DVD is now pushing for Adelman to coach his favorite team. And you thought Gilbert Arenas and Kobe were the only ones who were crazy.)

sounds about right to me also.

Win Budgeting?

An interesting post about having a team budget their salary around expected wins (h/t baseball musings). Personally, I disagree about his start point for the figures (54 wins, 54 losses and the rest depends on the players), but I like the 2 million per win figure.

Now, if we were to follow the reasoning laid out by U.S.S. Mariner, then a logical process for Theo would be to figure up the teams present win shares, then subtract them from the goal of 95 wins. Using the 2 million per win he could then base his free agent acquisitions etc to build a team. Will have to think about this but I think that Dave is right in his reasoning and this could be an interesting way to follow the trades this year.

Just a real quick look at the present starters, remembering that 95 wins equals a total of 285 win shares:

Pos.	Player	06 WS
1b	Youkilis	22
2b	Loretta	16
3b	Lowell	18
C	Varitek	8
DH	Ortiz	29
LF	Ramirez	29
CF	Crisp	10
RF	Pena	8
SP	Schilling	16
SP	Beckett	12
SP	Wakefield	7

These 12 players total 175 win shares, which would leave them 110 shares short. The question is how good do we expect Papelbon to be as a starter. I would put him in the Beckett category and for rounding sakes will say 10. Wakefield has had 8 shares, 16 shares and 7 shares the last three years. So let us put him at 10 also, this now leaves us 97 short.

Tavarez has averaged 6 the last 3 years, Timlin has averaged 8 in the same time period but 2005 he spent the last 2 months as the closer so lets go with 6 for him in our computations. DeLcarmen had 1 in 05 and 3 in 06. Will he improve? I say yes so let's go for 5. These 3 will leave us 80 short with a total of 16 of our 25 man squad supplying points.

As you can see we can easily reach that win share total of 285 needed for 95 wins without really killing the payroll. From now on, I think that I will use the Win Shares for my basis on approving or hissing future moves made by Theo this year.

All win share information found at The Hardball Times.

college wrap up week 10

Pretty good week on the College front as I went 7 and 3. Best of all though was the game.

NFL 9 - UGLY

Will update throughout the day

Week 9 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result
St. Louis	- 2 1/2	Kansas City	St. Louis	KC 31 - STL 17 (L)
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Miami	Chicago	MIA 31 - Chi 13 (L)
New Orleans	- 1 1/2	Tampa Bay	New Orleans	NO 31 - TB 14 (W)
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jax 37 - Tenn. 7 (L)
Atlanta	- 5 1/2	Detroit	Atlanta	Det 30 - Atl. 14 (L)
Baltimore	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Bal 26 - Cin 20 (L)
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Washington	Dallas	Was 22 - Dal 19 (L)
Buffalo	- 3 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	Buf 24 - GB 10 (L)
NY Giants	- 13 1/2	Houston	NY Giants	NY 14 - Hou 10 (L)
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Minnesota	SF 9 - Min 3 (L)
San Diego	- 12 1/2	Cleveland	San Diego	SD 32 - Cle 25 (L)
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Denver	Denver	Den 31 - Pit 20 (W)
New England	- 2 1/2	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	Ind 27 - NE 20 (W)
Seattle	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Sea 16 - Oak 0 (L)

The best that I can do this week is (at 8:00 EST) 4 and 10. FUGLY