Monday, December 31, 2007

2007 Winding Down

Well, 2007 is finally winding down and it is obvious that there are some serious bowl games to be played yet in this year. Well, not really, but there are a few left in this year. So far I have picked 8 winners and 7 losers, but today is another day. Before we get to the bowl picks for today though, it should be mentioned that the Celtics just keep on rolling along.

Last night they completed their four game west coast trip by beating the Lakers, well, actually they rolled over the the Lakers like a cement truck heading to the construction site. The closest the Lakers got in the second half was at 3:16 in the 3rd quarter when Kobe fed Derek Fisher for a three pointer that made the score 72-66. The Lakers didn't score again until the 4th quarter and by that time the Celtics had a 16 point lead that would never be threatened again.

As for the just completed road trip, the C's went to Sacramento on the 26th and won 89-69, a twenty point shellacking over a losing team. This was followed by a game on the 27th in Seattle that the Celtics won 104-96 over an even worse team than the Kings. Still it was Ray Allens first trip back to Seattle and it was their sixth set of back to back games this year (6-0 on the second game of these sets) so a close game was to be expected.

Following a day off the C's continued to impress by beating the Jazz on the 29th by a 104-98 score that included an embarrassed Paul Pierce who hit the winning basket with 28 seconds left in the game. In this game the Celtics trailed at half time as they just could not stop the Jazz from shooting over 60% in the first half. Once again though they out scored their opponent in the third quarter and only trailed by two going into the fourth. The Celtics were now 3-0 on the trip and rumbled into Los Angeles trying to do two things, prevent Phil Jackson from passing Red Auerbach on the win list and sweep the road trip.

Mission accomplished! Another double digit win and another milestone achieved!

Setting The Pace
eltics
The Celtics are now off to a better start than the Bulls team that won an NBA-record 72 games. Here are the best winning percentages before New Year's Day:
Team
Record
Pct.
1971-72 Lakers36-3.923*
1966-67 76ers35-3.921*
2007-08 Celtics26-3.897
1995-96 Bulls25-3.893*
* -- Won NBA title.
Some things are just meant to be and that is being accomplished by this Celtics team. As the box to the right says (lifted from ESPN.Com), the Celtics have joined a select few teams in the upper echelon of NBA history and the historic runs of the teams from Boston just keep on rolling (16-0 Patriots, 2007 World Series Champs) along in this last week of 2007.

Next on the docket for the Celtics will be a home game vs the Rockets on 1/2/2008 (got to get used to typing 2008) and another back to back as they face the Grizzlies on 1/4 at home and then travel to Detroit on 1/5. The Detroit game will be interesting since the Pistons beat the Celtics on 12/19 in Boston. I expect fireworks in that game!!

Enough about the Celtics though. Lets make our picks for today's Bowl Games!

The first game today at 12:30 is the Armed Forces Bowl! This game pits California (6-6) against Air Force (9-3). I think the Falcons will beat the Bears 31 - 27.

Next set of games has the Humanitarian bowl at 2:00 with Georgia Tech (7-5) playing Fresno State (8-4). Look for the rambling wreck to win this game 35-21. The other 2:00 game has #21 South Florida (9-3) playing Oregon (8-4). I just don't think that Oregon can hang with the Big East team and fully expect the Bulls to beat the Ducks 28-10.

Our 4:00 game features Kentucky (7-5) playing perennial bowl team Florida State (7-5) in the Music City bowl. Since Florida State has an academic scandal (gee another school in Florida with a thug reputation, who woulda thought that - ed) which will cause a good number of players to be left in Florida for this game, I expect the SEC to continue to roll as Kentucky blasts the Seminoles 35-10.

The 6:00 game features Indiana (7-5) vs Oklahoma State (6-6) in the insight.com bowl. I expect this game to be a shoot out and I even might watch a little bit of it on the NFL network. Indiana 31 - Oklahoma State 30.

The last game of the day will be at 7:30 on ESPN as the Clemson Tigers (9-3) take on the Auburn Tigers (8-4). This should be another good game but I fully expect the SEC team to beat the ACC team in a low scoring affair. Lets go with Auburn 18 over Clemson 17.

Well, time to do some menial errands on this last day in 2007. Catch you all later!

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Misc 2007 stuff

Well, another year is fast becoming history and if you are a fan of any of the teams associated with Boston you have to be pretty happy. In fact this might be a very historic year for teams based in the Boston area as last night the Patriots became the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 and the Celtics improved their NBA best record to 25-3 (on pace for 73 wins) by beating the Utah Jazz on the road and guaranteeing themselves a winning road trip against west coast teams.

Even the Bruins are playing above .500 hockey and are just out of the playoffs with their 18-16-4 record. With the Revolution making it to the finals in MLS and the Red Sox winning the World Series Boston can rightly claim to be a championship contending town. The only question right now is can the Patriots find their way to the Super Bowl (only the Colts can prevent that imho)?

As for the Celtics, right now they are contenders, but in the rugged play of the NBA there is still a long, long, long way to go before they can even think about the playoffs. Still, you have to like the way the Celtics are playing as once again they turned up the defensive pressure in the second half last night. Yep, I am truly enjoying the Celtics season.

Turning quickly to bowl games this year, so far I picked winners in the San Diego Credit Union, Papajohns.com, New Mexico, Pioneer Las Vegas, Champs Sports, Texas, Emerald, and the Alamo bowl games. That is an 8 and 6 record so far. There is only one game today and that is the Petro Sun Independence bowl. Look for Colorado to run up the score against an up and down Alabama team. I don't even expect this one to be close, lets say 31 to 10 for the Buffaloes.

On the pro side today lets go with these winners:

Seattle +2 1/2
Cleveland - 9 1/2
New Orleans - 2 1/2
Cincinatti - 2 1/2
Buffalo +7 1/2
Carolina +2 1/2
Green Bay - 3 1/2
Jacksonville + 6 1/2
Pittsburgh -5 1/2
Dallas +8 1/2
Arizona -6 1/2
Minnesota -2 1/2
San Diego -6 1/2
Kansas City +5 1/2
Indianapolis +6 1/2

Tata for now!!!!!

Thursday, December 13, 2007

The Mitchell Report

This all I have to say about this investigation, "Who the Frag Cares"! MLB players used performance enhancing drugs, well duh! The entire report can be found here at espn.com

Update: - Corrected mitchell's name!

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Celtics Game 20 (Golden State goes down)

Another game another win. What more can you ask for in this season? Beats the frag out of me. Caught the last half of this game, as it was movie night in the s1c household (Live Free or Die Hard). I am beginning to think that starting to watch this team at the start of the 3rd quarter is the way to follow this team, as once again the men in green came out of the half-time break and took control of the game.

Less than five minutes into the quarter and it was 55-47 Celtics, as they just seemed to explode. Contributions were made by every starter even Rajon (did you even realize that Rajon had no points, not with his team leading 5 assists-ed). The best thing was that Big Baby stepped up to the plate and hit one out of the park.

In 27 minutes of playing time he grabbed 9 boards (5 off), went 3-6 from the floor and 10 - 10 from the free throw line. More importantly, he had only 2 personal fouls. The Big Baby is growing into a BIG MAN right before our eyes.

As for the PGA, well the usual from them as they combined for 52 points in this game, lead by Paul Pierce's 26 points. These three just seem to get more comfortable every game that they play. It will be interesting to see how they respond to their up coming west coast trip. Actually I don't think it will be interesting I think it will be the first real test that this team has faced this year. Next game Friday night!!!!

updated - corrected my freaking spelling errors.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Okajima Speaks

UPDATED - Added the second half of the radio transcript.

The Globe has a transcript of an interview that Hidecki Okajima gave in Japan. He even thanks J. Buck of the Royals. A good read.

Second part of the interview as the Globe has reported it.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Celtics Game 19

Another game vs the eastern half of the NBA and another win. Especially, in a game where one of the big three went 1-8 from the field only to have Rajon Rondo step up and have his biggest game of the year. 18 points from the point guard and he pitched in with seven rebounds and five assists.

The only complaint I have is that late in the game instead of going for the knock out blow they should have gotten the ball to Kevin Garnett. At the end of the game the big guy has to touch the ball in order to make the offense more diverse. Still an eleven point win and going to 17 and 2 is very good in my books. Especially when you realize that the previous Celtics who reached these heights have pretty much always made the NBA Finals. I definitely like these Celtics!!!

Thursday, December 06, 2007

07-08 Celtics Game 17

Well you have to hand it to them, this Celtics team just never gives up. For some reason I thought this game started at 7:30 so I didn't turn on the tube until 7:33. Yep, I was wrong (who knew), the game started at 7:00 so the score was 40something to 30something and the C's were on the short end. Still you could see that they had confidence that the double digit lead would shrink by half time in Philadelphia and sure enough it was down to 5 as the 76ers went in to the locker room up by 57-52.

Some thoughts that entered my mind while watching this game:

  1)  What the frag is up with Ray Allen's jump shot?
  2)  Will Tony Allen ever explode to the basket again?

First Ray's problems, just aren't making sense. It looks like he is just slightly off on his rhythm as to often the ball seems to circle the basket then fall off the rim. Another pretty poor night from the field as he went 3 for 12 (2 for 6 from 3 point territory). Still, he seems to be helping this team in little things so, once he gets his jumper back to being the Ray Allen jumper from the past, look out!!!

As for Tony's lack of explosiveness, every game it seems we see at least one drive to the basket where the ball never reaches the top of the rim. Just look at his drive just before the half where the ball hits the bottom of the rim as an example. Is it the bruise, is it the knee? Who the frag knows but something needs to change if he wants me to have any confidence in him when he enters the game.

Glen Davis needs to learn how to play defense better, 15 minutes and he had two fouls. I love his energy, but move the feet better and you will be able to stay on the floor for longer periods of time (Tommy thinks he needs to lose twenty pounds, but I don't know about that).

Still a 10 point win on the road is something to smile about these days, and it is becoming apparent that this team is a legitimate contender for the finals. It is good to know that after all these years of wearing my Celtics jacket in shame, I can wear it with pride again!!!

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

08 Season Win Shares Look #1

Well its 13:15 and still no Johan trade to the Sox. What's happening, you've got me! The latest information from the Globe and the Herald is that the Twins are approaching other teams, Mets, Angels and Dodgers (losers in the Marlin trades) to see if they can get anything better or maybe just to see if this is the best that they can get for Santana. I still think that unless the MFY's up the ante and add both Hughes and Kennedy this deal will get done. However, it is possible that the Twins may say, forget it, we will wait until the trade deadline and if we are out of contention we make a deal then. I really think that would be unlikely though since they know that he is leaving and they will want to get something for him. Will have to see. WEEI is saying that the Star Ledger has the Twins and Sox still working on a deal though at 1:29 p.m.

Still, the team is starting to take shape so I thought I would do the first Win Share look at the team for the 2008 season. So, here goes!!!

Pos.Player07 WSCWS3 yr Avg.4 yr Avg.Projected
DH
Ortiz
29
166
29.667
28.5
30
1b
Youkilis
20
53
15
13.25
21
2b
Pedroia
19
19
----
----
19
3b
Lowell
24
169
17
19.25
20
SS
Lugo
12
110
16.333
17.25
13
LF
Ramirez
15
354
26
26.25
22
CF
Ellsbury
6
6
----
----
15
RF
Drew
12
161
15.333
20
20
C
Varitek
15
122
14
15.25
14
SP1
Beckett
19
73
15
13.5
17
Sp2
Matsuzaka
12
12
----
----
12
Sp3
Schilling
10
254
10
13
12
Sp4
Lester
4
9
----
----
8
Sp5
Wakefield
10
154
11
10.25
10
Closer
Papelbon
12
34
11.333
----
15
Rel1
Okajima
10
10
----
----
8
Rel2
Delcarmen
5
9
3
----
4
Rel3
Timlin
4
120
7.667
7.25
3
Rel4
Tavarez
4
76
4.667
5.5
5
Rel5
Snyder
3
7
1
1.75
3
Rel6
Donnelly
2
37
4.667
4.75
3
4th Of
Crisp
16
71
15.667
15.25
10
B C
?????





M I F
Cora
4
70
4.33
7.5
5
C I F
?????












Totals

267
2096
221.664
218.5
289

Just looking at this right now there are only two slots left to be filled, the back up catcher and a back up infielder for the corners (though Cora can play and has played at 3rd). I also included Donnelly, but it is possible that he will not be available this coming year, of course he basically is only worth 1 more win in this scenario, so if he doesn't play, well no big loss and an easy replacement should be available. In fact if you look at THT's Win Shares for last year, you will see a lot of players that will give you just 3 win shares just in the AL, if you add NL well there are even more out there.

The second thing to look at, if you assume the 3 win shares equals one win, then this team is already at 96 wins in the projected and we have two more spots to fill. That looks good for the team.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

ESPN Picks the Final Fours and Oh Yeah Some Trades

Well while the blogging has been light here a lot of things are shaking in the sports world. It looks like the Tigers have traded for Cabrera (thank you Mike Lowell and Thank you theo). The Sox are in the midst of making a trade for Johan Santana which might include Ellsbury (no, no please no) or Lester (yes, yes, yes) but who really knows. If Sean McAdam on Comcast sportsnet is right then even Coco wouldn't be part of the deal, who the fragging knows. Still something to keep an eye on over the next day or so, will have to keep you posted.

I thought I would take a look at what the ESPN guys have decided would be their final four picks this coming spring. Surprisingly only eight teams make their final four with UCLA (9), Memphis (9) and UNC (8) leading the way. The only other team to be listed by at least half of the experts was Louisville at 5. Will be interesting to see if the college basketball season goes true to form or if like the just finished football season it goes all topsy turvy. Later my friends!!

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Are You Fragging Kidding Me?

So, have been cleaning out the cobwebs and basically looking at what the fragging happened in the last few weeks. Blogging has been light because, well I just didn't know what to really say after game Four of the ALCS. Of course it didn't help the blogging muse that the BH (hi sweetie) decided that our 23rd anniversary should be spent in some secluded inn that would not allow my laptop to connect to the internet.

Since that trip coincided with the ALCS and I really couldn't believe that the Sox were on the verge of losing a series in Cleveland to a team that shouldn't have been causing that many problems, well, you can just imagine my depths of frustration on the Sox scene. Still, while low in the joy I think that I never really lost hope. Even if that hope felt like a blade of grass on the edge of the cliff that was supporting my not so light body.

Still, you have to like the way the Sox responded to the situation. Down 3-1 and facing a possible (shouldn't get it imho) Cy Young winner in game 5 on enemy turf, you have to wonder about the chances of getting back to Fenway for a game 6. Thank you Josh (dominator, Captain F*** Yeah of the kick ass brigade) came up huge once again in the play offs. Game 5 was pure Josh Beckett taking a team by the throat and saying; "not on my watch, not today, not ever you fragging jack ass" while he kicked them in the crotch. Pure, pure domination by the ace of the staff.

Of course being the superstitious sort of person I am, once the Sox started winning I didn't dare go near the blog to post. A condition we have seen before on these pages, still thanks to Joy of Sox I was able to vent my frustrations and still make some types of contributions for the discourse during the games. My claim to fame - Dear (insert player here), letters.

Still, even after Josh's domination, the team had to turn to #38 to take the bull by the horns. Game six in Fenway with the pitcher that has made the post season his personal whipping boy. Still after seeing him struggle in game 2 on the same mound and just knowing that it might be his last time in a RS uniform had me edgy all day. Could the old man show the kids how to step up when the light is brightest? My prediction at the game thread 5 was - Going out on a limb here, 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 4 K's and 0 runs!!!! , not to bad if I say so myself. What really made the game 6 game though was mister J.D. (ON FIRE!!!!) Drew and his grand slam bash to deep center field in the first.

How big was that smash? Well just remember that the bases were loaded with 0 outs and MBM and The Doctor both wasted their at bats prior to the slam. Just like earlier losses in this series it looked liked the Sox were going to waste a golden opportunity when with one beautiful swing J.D. made it fragging beautiful. 4-0 after the first and you just knew that Fausto was not going to last in the game. Just like in 2004 Curt came up big and the offense came up even bigger and it was turn out the lights, because the party was over for the Cleveland nine. Wahoo!!!

Let me highlight the feelings from that slam as here in total is the response at Joy of Sox:
s1c said...
You have to be kidding me!Time for ON FIRE!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:49:00 PM
L-girl said...
c'mon drew, you can be a hero right here...
Sat Oct 20, 08:49:00 PM
SoSock said...
It's all on ON FIRE!
Sat Oct 20, 08:49:00 PM
L-girl said...
it would be nice if the crowd got behind him
Sat Oct 20, 08:50:00 PM
thatdietcokegirl said...
based-loaded, nobody out sux.C'MON W3RD!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:50:00 PM
L-girl said...
we will accept a walk
Sat Oct 20, 08:51:00 PM
phrenile said...
Holy shit
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
brendotroy said...
HOOOOLY SHIT THAT'S OUR DREW!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
David said...
NO FUCKING WAY!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
s1c said...
ON FUCKING FIRE!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
redsock said...
OH MY FUCKING HGGPDC;KMV;lfs vksns lkma;;km;oj pA
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
ish said...
DAVID JONATHON!!!! ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
L-girl said...
OH MY FUCKING GOD HE DID IT HE DID IT HE DID ITON FIRE
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
Ben said...
i think i just wet myself.
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
chief said...
Dude, I'm loving this Drew deal.
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
SoSock said...
OH MY GOD!!!!!!!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:52:00 PM
nixon33 said...
I LOVE YOU!!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:53:00 PM
redsock said...
FUCK THE FUCKING HATERS!IT'S THE ON FIRE THIS TIME!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:53:00 PM
Ofer said...
Fenway Park just got burned to the fucking GROUND! ON FIRE, indeed!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:53:00 PM
s1c said...
For all of you WEEI losers who wanted him to sit this game.To quote TCDG - "Suck my..."
Sat Oct 20, 08:53:00 PM
phrenile said...
Much better than walking and leaving the bases loaded for Tek. :)
Sat Oct 20, 08:54:00 PM
San Francisco Red Sox Fan said...
Drew, I apologize for every rotten thing I have said about you this year.
Sat Oct 20, 08:54:00 PM
L-girl said...
yes. much better. :)
Sat Oct 20, 08:54:00 PM
L-girl said...
yeah drew, make the fans apologize!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:54:00 PM
brendotroy said...
Let's hear from JBuck how grand slams are shitty momentum killers ...
Sat Oct 20, 08:54:00 PM
redsock said...
DREW IS A BEAST -- A MOTHERFUCKING ICED TEA DEMANDING BEAST!!!!!!
Sat Oct 20, 08:55:00 PM
redsock said...
mastny up in the PEN
Sat Oct 20, 08:56:00 PM
s1c said...
LBJ gets on and we will have sent 9 men to the plate. Still freaking doing the happy dance because of ON FIRE!!!!!

More later on the rest of the post season and my thoughts on the best team in baseball right now. Just one last thing -

Reasons to fire Terry Francona - games 1-4 of the ALCS his record is 2 and 6.
Reason to build a fragging statutue outside of Fenway park - games 5-7 of the ALCS his record is 6-0!!!!

Later!!!

Sweep Sweep



Clearing out the cobwebs and other things. Posting something some time soon!!!

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Red Sox vs Indians Game 3 2007 ALCS

2007 A. L. C. S. Game 3

Bos

@

Cle

D. Matsuzaka

0-0, -.--

J. Westbrook

0-0, -.--

Red Sox

1-1

Indians

1-1


Monday, October 15      Jacobs Field  ✠ 7:00 PM ET

ESPN.Com Preview .
Yahoo's Preview .
ESPN.Com after the game Recap.
MLB.Com Press Pass
From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Red Sox: The right-hander from Japan labored in his first career postseason start, giving up seven hits and three runs over 4 2/3 innings to the Angels. He threw 96 pitches, which is less economical than the Red Sox need him to be. Overall, Matsuzaka's first Major League season has been a success. Matsuzaka went 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA over 32 starts. In 204 2/3 innings, Matsuzaka allowed 191 hits while striking out 201. His best month was June, when he posted a 1.59 ERA over five starts. Matsuzaka went 2-1 with a 7.62 ERA in September, though his final regular-season start was one of his best, as he limited the Twins to two runs over eight innings while striking out eight. Matsuzaka had mixed results against the Indians, going 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in two starts. His win was a 1-0 gem against C.C. Sabathia at Cleveland on July 24. Matsuzaka went 7-8 with a 4.02 ERA on the road this season.

Indians: Westbrook's first foray into postseason play saw him shine early in Game 3 of the ALDS, but he couldn't sustain the bite on his sinker in the middle innings and was tagged for six runs on nine hits in five-plus innings of work. He was unable to secure an early 3-0 lead handed to him in what could have been a series-clinching game. He said his approach became too predictable, and he hopes to mix up his pitches better in this start. Westbrook has to prove he can turn in a more consistent outing against lineups filled with postseason veterans. That might be tough to do against a Red Sox club that roughed him up for five runs on 10 hits in six innings in his lone start against them this season.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Westbrook

PlayerABH2b3bHR'sRBIBB'sK'sBA
D. Pedroia31000000.333
K. Youkilis85100421.625
D. Ortiz92100002.222
M. Ramirez168100302.500
M. Lowell113000011.273
J.D. Drew51000110.200
J. Varitek63100130.500
C. Crisp86100000.750
J. Lugo246200122.250
Totals90357001098.389

A .389 batting average? Are you freaking kidding me? Based on these numbers the Sox should be able to score at will. However, this is a home game in Cleveland, so I expect there to be some struggles here. Still, I am optimistic for this batting order.

Other things to consider when watching the Sox take on this pitcher:

  1. This year lefties are batting .288 against him.
  2. He is able to retire only 62% of lead off batters.
  3. 4 pitch or less PA's is only 59%.
  4. His off speed stuff is his best.

Historical Pitching Lines

PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Matsuzaka211012 2/31661394.261.506.33
Westbrook632033 2/34818117124.811.935.61

The only good thing here is that Daisuke has better numbers than Westbrook. None of those numbers make you stand up and say, "guaranteed winner here". Still, will take Daisuke's numbers over Westbrook.

This Years Pitching Totals

PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Matsuzaka211012 2/31661394.261.506.33
Westbrook101061050417.502.336

Westbrook sucked this year at Cleveland. That is interesting because Daisuke had an excellent game at Cleveland earlier this year. 7 innings of 4 hit ball and he won a 1-0 game. His WHIP at Jacobs field is a great 1.00. Hopefully that is the Daisuke we will see tonight!!!

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

Red Sox vs Indians Game 2 2007 ALCS

2007 A. L. C. S. Game 2
Cle@ Bos
F. Carmona
0-0, 0.00
C. Schilling
0-0, 0.00
Indians
0-0
Red Sox
0-0
Saturday, October, 13    Fenway Park  ✠ 8:00 PM ET
ESPN.Com Preview .
Yahoo's Preview .
ESPN.Com after the game Recap.
MLB.Com Press Pass
From MLB.Com Scouting Report
Baseball-Reference - Preview

Indians: Any concerns over whether Carmona could carry on his dominant 2007 season while under the glare of the October spotlight were erased in a hurry. Carmona was utterly brilliant in Game 2 of the ALDS, holding a potent Yankees lineup to a single run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts in nine innings. The lone run came on a solo shot from Melky Cabrera. Carmona was merely picking up where he left off in a dominant 19-win 2007 regular season (including a 5-0 September in which he strung together a 1.78 ERA). Formerly reliant solely on his devastating mid-90s sinker, Carmona has learned over the last few months to more effectively turn to his changeup and slider. He will be returning to the site of his 2006 debacle as the Tribe?s closer. He blew two saves in Fenway Park. But in his lone start against the Red Sox this season, he blanked them for eight innings and allowed just four hits.

Red Sox: Schilling's middle name might as well be Big Game. Throughout his career, all he has done is come up big in October. He certainly started this postseason in dominant fashion, firing seven shutout innings in Boston's series-clinching 9-1 win over the Angels. In that game, Schilling walked one and struck out four. In 16 postseason starts, Schilling is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA. All three times Schilling has participated in a League Championship Series -- 1993 for the Phillies, 2001 with the Diamondbacks and 2004 in Boston -- he has helped push his team to the World Series. Lifetime in LCS play, Schilling is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA. Schilling was sharp in his lone start against Cleveland this season, earning the win on May 28 by giving up one run over seven innings. Schilling went 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA in 13 starts at Fenway Park this season.
Inside Edge scouting reports here and here.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Carmona
PlayerABH2b3bHR'sRBIBB'sK'sBA
D. Pedroia20000000.000
K. Youkilis30000021.000
D. Ortiz42001302.500
M. Ramirez20000011.000
M. Lowell00000000.000
J.D. Drew30000000.000
J. Varitek21000010.500
C. Crisp41000001.250
J. Lugo00000000.000
Totals204001345.200


Not a lot of history here and that .200 reflects the lack of history. Since it such a small sample size I am not sure what the value of this history is worth. I dou know you may see Cora playing SS but I really doubt it since Lugo seems to have hit his stride. It is possible that Pedroia will sit though. Cora is 2 for 4 vs Carmona.

This year Carmona vs lefties - .275/.333/.377 and righties .216/.280/.321 and overall .248/.309/.352.


Historical Pitching Lines

PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Carmona11209751485.001.228.0
Schilling522035 2/3351557353.791.186.4

The two losses are from last year when Carmona had his melt downs as a closer. Papi won one of those games with a massive home run in the ninth. The other win was on a ninth inning hit by Loretta.

This Years Pitching Lines
PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Carmona11008400260.00.758
Schilling110076100101.29.867.0

Obviously Schilling and Carmona pitched well this year against the opposing teams. You may remember Carmona's start in Cleveland. The night after the Sox beat C.C. 1-0 Carmona beat Beckett 1-0.

Other things to look for:
  1. Fausto this year has won 19 games, mainly due to his ability to set down batters 1-2-3. His percentage is 41% while the MLB average is 31%.
  2. Fausto has 3 pitch or less PA's 55% of the time, MLB average is 47%.
  3. Carmon also has 4 or less pitch PA's 73% of the time, MLB average is 65%.
  4. Only 25% of his runners score while the MLB average is 36% of the time.
For Schilling there isn't a lot to say. He is 9-2 in post season play with a 1.93 ERA. His start in the ALDS against the Angels shows that he still has command of his fastball and he threw some great splits. Even though he is not clocked in the mid-90's he has shown he knows how to pitch.

Look for Schilling to step up big tonight and I would not be surprised to see these issues being his keys:

  1. 67% of his first pitch is a strike (MLB -58%)
  2. 90% of the time his first or second pitch is a strike (MLB - 85%).
  3. Most of his pitch categories are above the MLB average with only his swing and miss counts and the % of outs that are K's in four pitches or less (.11 / MLB -.14).
Enjoy the game people. Going away for the weekend, so not sure when I will be able to post. Hopefully the recap at the least.

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

2007 ALCS Game 1 Recap

Final

Press PassBox Score Play - by - PlayGame Recap

Team123456789
RHE
Cleveland100001010380
Boston10403
200X10120

W: J. Beckett (2-0) L: C.C. Sabathia (1-1)
HR ➢ Cle: Travis Hafner (1)

☼ Sun - Beckett - Six Innings of four hit ball. Another outstanding start by Josh.
☁ Cloud - Sabathia - Eight runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Game thoughts!

A very good start by Josh, the only reason he came out of this game was due to Terry deciding to get the bull pen some work. He was not overworked as he only threw the 80 pitches in his six innings.

So many things went right in this game it is hard to decide on where to start. Should it be the 10 for 10 on base for Papi and MBM? The way that the Sox chased the "ace" of the Cleveland team in the fifth? The fact that every starter got at least one hit? See, a lot went right here. What started off as a nervous night when Hafner hit his two out home run, quickly became a laugher as the Sox responded in the bottom of the first with four straight line drives (Pedroia being the only out on a scorcher up the middle in which C.C. caught in self defense) that led to the tying score, followed by the four run third and the three run fifth.

What we need are more games just like this one this post season!!!

♊ - Morbid and creepifing I can handle as long as we do it quiet like.

Red Sox vs Indians Game 1 2007 ALCS

Game 1 2007 American League Championship Series

Cle@ Bos
C. C. Sabathia0-0, 0.00J. Beckett0-0, 0.00
Indians0-0Red Sox0-0

Friday, October, 12      Fenway Park  ✠ 7:00 PM ET

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From MLB.Com Scouting Report
Baseball-Reference - Preview

Indians: Sabathia, who proved just how far he's come as a pitcher in Game 1 of the ALDS at Jacobs Field. On a night in which the left-hander had trouble pounding the zone with his usual efficiency and could have unraveled, Sabathia was resolute. He needed 114 pitches to get through five innings and walked six batters, but he limited the damage to three runs on four hits and earned his second postseason victory in as many starts. Just a few years ago, such a game in which he didn't have his best stuff early might have turned into a catastrophe, but he's discovered ways to stay calm and collected. Sabathia made one start against the Red Sox on July 24 at Jacobs Field, limiting them to a run on five hits over seven innings. But he took the loss because of a lack of offensive support. He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his career at Fenway Park.

Red Sox: Beckett pitched well against the Indians this season, going 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts. The one loss was a 1-0 heartbreaker to Fausto Carmona. The ace right-hander was nothing short of brilliant in Game 1 of the Division Series, firing a complete game, four-hit shutout that led Boston to a 4-0 win over the Angels. Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA) has been a rock for the Red Sox all year long. In that playoff opener, however, he took his game to another level. Of his 108 pitches, 83 were strikes. He had no walks and eight strikeouts. Beckett's reputation in postseason play is growing by the start. His last two October outings have both been shutouts. In fact, Beckett has three career shutouts in six postseason starts, but just two in 166 regular season starts. Beckett is 3-2 with a 1.74 ERA lifetime in the postseason. This is Beckett's second trip to an LCS. In 2003, Beckett helped the Marlins to the World Series by pitching three times against the Cubs -- once in relief -- and going 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA. Beckett went 9-5 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway this season.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Sabathia
PlayerABH2b3bHR'sRBIBB'sK'sBA
D. Pedroia30000000.000
K. Youkilis73000001.429
D. Ortiz185101313.278
M. Ramirez2112304712.571
M. Lowell72000103.286
B. Kielty299402724.310
J. Varitek101001313.100
C. Crisp62000003.333
J. Lugo184101221.222
Totals1193890923720.319

A batting average of .319 vs Sabathia. That is simply outstanding, no other way to put it. Of course it helps that Manny is batting .571 against this guy. Still you have to like your chances when the entire team is batting .286 against him also. Taking a look at C. C. 's splits this year we see that right handed batters are hitting at a .275 clip with a slugging percentage of .413 (.259/.392 over all). I like our chances against this guy!!

Historical Pitching Lines

PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Sabathia724048 1/3512188353.911.226.90
Beckett413024 2/3241876236.571.226.17


Looking at these career numbers its hard to pick a winner. Combined they are 3-7. Not very good for either pitcher. In a way Becketts are much worse but it should be pointed out that last year he was terrible against this team. Look for his numbers to be closer to this years results as opposed to his career line.

This Years Pitching Lines

PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Sabathia10107510071.29.717.0
Beckett2110157311141.80.537.5

Both of these guys were outstanding against the teams this year. With their WHIP numbers I almost find it hard to believe that they lost a game apiece. Then when you look at the games that they lost, you see why. Both of them lost a 1-0 game. Hard to blame a pitcher when he loses 1-0. If both pitchers are on, offense will be at a premium. That makes this a toss up game when you are counting on the offenses.

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Red Sox 07 ALDS Game 3 Recap

Final

Press PassBox Score Play - by - PlayGame Recap
Team123456789RHE
Boston 0002 00 0 7 0 9 10 0
Anaheim 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 0

W: C. Schilling (1-0) L: J. Weaver (0-1)
HR ➢ Bos: D. Ortiz (2), M. Ramirez (2)

☼ Sun 1a - Schilling - 7 innings of shut out ball.
☼ Sun 1b - Ortiz - Home run in the 4th
☼ Sun 1c - Ramirez - Home run in the 4th as he and Papi went back to back
☁ Cloud - none - Weaver made two mistakes and the Sox made him pay. The way that Schilling was pitching he would have had to be perfect. Well, no one is perfect.

Game thoughts!


Well this game did not start off well. A 1-2-3 first half of the inning is never good in a play off game. Especially, since the new Schilling was starting his first play off game since BS II. Would Schilling* be his usual play off pitcher or would he be more like the Maddux** play off pitcher?

Schilling got the first out and then his personal nemesis (o-cab) singled to center bringing up the ever-dangerous Vlad. A line out to third and then GA flied out to right. End of 1 and its 0-0.

Weaver appeared to show some nerves in the second when he walked MBM and Lowell doubled to left. A close play at third but even with over sliding the base MBM kept his hand in contact and it was 2nd and 3rd with Drew, Tek and Coco coming up to bat. Alas, Drew swung at the first pitch and hit a tapper back to Weaver. Tek and Coco then K'ed and it was Lob-otomy time. A wasted opportunity was in the books.

The Angels though took that momentum and promptly wasted it. Thanks to an inning ending double play (Izturis single with 1 out) Curt only faced the minimum number of batters.

Weaver returned to being good in the third as he set down the Sox 1-2-3 again. At this point I was wondering if we would be regretting that 2nd inning debacle. I really started wondering when the Angels put the following events together. Rivera single, Napoli K, Figgins FC, O-cab single (Figgins to 3rd) and a walk by Vlad. Bases loaded, even with two outs is not endearing to my heart. In fact it is down right suicidal to my heart. Thankfully, GA's pink eye meant he had been taken out of the game and replaced by Willits, who then popped out to Tek. End of the third and Schilling had thrown 40 pitches and the score was 0-0. I also took a deep breath!

Top of the fourth saw really the only two mistakes that Weaver made all day. On his 0-1 pitch to Papi he tried to get a ball down and inside, only Papi put a swing on the ball and deposited said ball in the tunnel area in right field. 1-0 Sox. MBM then followed his fellow Dominican with his own blast. His was to deep, deep, center field and came on a 3-2 curve that, well, just didn't curve. 2-0 Sox and I was starting to relax. It didn't matter that the next three went down in order, the Sox had the lead finally.

The bottom of the 4th is why I gave Schilling top billing in the sun awards. In the first three innings the Angels kept on getting at least one base runner. After being spotted a 2 run lead, Curt had his first 1-2-3 inning. A thirteen pitch 1-2-3. That quickly the team was back in the dug out ready to put more pressure on the Angels. That is what you want your starting pitcher to do after you have scored runs. Have a quick 1-2-3 inning and get the bats swinging, hoping to add more runs.

The top of the 5th was really the last gasp for Weaver. After getting Coco to ground out on the first pitch of the inning we saw a Lugo single, a Pedroia walk (Lugo stole second on the 3-0 pitch) and then another lob-otomy moment as Youkilis grounded into a DP. Still, Weaver was now approaching 90 pitches and we were only in the fifth. Schilling meanwhile was sitting at 53 pitches. We were looking good.

A seventeen pitch inning did not make me sit easier though. Of course ten of those came against Figgins. Still, Schilling was now in position for another post season win. All I wanted was one more solid inning from him.

Not surprisingly, the top of the sixth saw nothing shattering for the Sox. Weaver walked Ortiz on six pitches and Shields was brought in to face Manny. Again the Angels bull pen showed why they are considered good. A fly out from Manny and a Double Play grounder by Lowell and it was time for Schilling to trot out for the sixth inning.

70 pitches in the books for Schilling would he start to tire? No, he would not. Nine pitches later and he was walking towards the dug out. In my mind his day was over, but at 79 pitches you can never be sure.

Shields set down the Sox 1-2-3 in the top of the seventh. Still tight game, but would Schilling be able to hold the line?

A lead off double, had me doubting the chances of Schilling. A Kendrick ground out moved Izturis to third and it looked like the Angels would probably post a run on the board. Not so fast Skippy, Rivera popped up to Youkilis and on the seventh pitch to Napoli, Schilling got him to chase a splitter in the dirt. Seven in the books and this game was over.

Well, actually it wasn't really over as there was two more innings to play yet, but with this bull pen I felt it was over. To remove any doubt though, Lugo started off the eighth by inducing a lead off walk. Speier relieved Shields and on the second pitch Pedroia doubled to deep left. Lugo was running hard and on a close play at the plate, scored the third run with Dustin going to third on the throw. Youkilis hit a sac fly to center and it was 4-0.

The Sox weren't done though. Papi hit a single, MBM walked, Lowell doubled scoring Papi, Drew got Ellsbury (who pinch ran for MBM) home with a fielders choice, Tek doubled scoring Lowell, Coco singled scoring Drew and Tek, Lugo popped out and then finally Dustin ended the inning with a ground out. Eleven men to the plate and seven runs scored. Game, Set and Match. An excuse me run in the ninth against Gagne was the end of the scoring in this series. Sox Win!! Sox Win!!!

* Schilling record
** Maddux record

♊ - Morbid and creepifing I can handle as long as we do it quiet like.

Saturday, October 06, 2007

Red Sox 07 ALDS Game 3

Bos@ Laa
C. Schilling
0-0, -.--
J. Weaver
0-0, -.--
Red Sox
2-0
Angels
0-2

Sunday, October 7     Angel Stadium of Anaheim  ✠ 3:00 PM ET
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Red Sox: Schilling is one of the best big-game pitchers of this generation and all you need to do is view his postseason stats for proof. Schilling has made 15 postseason starts in his career, going 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA. Believe it or not, he has not pitched in the playoffs since Game 2 of the 2004 World Series. Schilling was lined up to pitch Game 4 of the 2005 Division Series, but the Red Sox were swept in three games. Since coming back from the disabled list on Aug. 6, Schilling has reinvented himself. The loss of velocity has been compensated by increased attention to command of his supplementary pitches. In his last eight starts, Schilling worked at least six innings. Schilling pitched three times against the Angels this season, going 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA. In 12 career appearances against the Angels, Schilling is 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA. Schilling will make this start on 11 days of rest. The last time he pitched in Anaheim in the postseason was Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, and that was a 9-3 win by the Red Sox. Schilling went 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in his 11 road starts this season.

Angels: Weaver's education as a Major League pitcher continued in his second full season. He got a late start, recovering from arm issues he'd carried into the offseason after a busy rookie year, but soon made up for lost time by delivering a string of quality starts. Weaver's height -- he's 6-foot-7 -- and sweeping delivery provide deception for a fastball that gets in on hitters, looking faster than the 91-92 mph radar readings. He complements his heater with a high-caliber changeup and good breaking ball. As with most Angels pitchers, everything revolves around fastball location. When he's hitting his spots, he's tough to beat.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Hitting History vs Weaver
PlayerABH2b3bHR'sRBIBB'sK'sBA
D. Pedroia5
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
.200
K. Youkilis12
4
0
0
1
2
1
1
.333
D. Ortiz10
5
0
0
2
7
2
1
.500
M. Ramirez6
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
.000
M. Lowell7
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
.286
J.D. Drew6
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
.500
J. Varitek8
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
.125
C. Crisp11
1
1
0
0
0
0
3
.091
J. Lugo8
4
1
0
1
3
0
1
.500
Totals73
21
3
0
4
13
6
13
.288

Once again we see a pretty decent batting average against the opposing pitcher. Looking deeper into the numbers the 3-4-5 hitters are batting .304/.393/.565. So the key to this game is having runners in position to be brought home. Pedroia and Youkilis need to start laying some lumber on the ball to accomplish this. The bottom of the order is simply terrible as Tek, Coco and Lugo are batting .222/.222/.444.

Weavers splits this year show a huge difference between right handers and lefties at the plate. Left handed hitters are batting .291/.348/.406 while righties are at .269 (not bad)/.306/.430. I like the odds of the offense scoring some runs in this game.

Historical Pitching Lines
PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Schilling 7
6
2
0
54
57
22
9
3
40
3.67
1.11
7.00
Weaver 4
0
2
0
23
25
12
3
6
19
4.70
1.35
5.75

Over all numbers show that Schilling should have a higher chance of success. His ERA is not bad vs good team and his WHIP is very good. I like the fact that he averages 7 innings per start against this team also. If he can give us his normal start then we should be sitting pretty. The trend though is not looking so good as he has given up a total of 15 runs in his last four outings vs this team (2-2).

This Years Pitching Totals
PitcherGSWLShoIPHERHRBBKERAWHIPIP/GS
Schilling 3
2
1
0
20
21
9
3
1
12
4.05
1.10
6.67
Weaver 2
0
1
0
10 1/3
14
8
2
3
9
6.97
1.65
5.17

Of course trends can be tricky. Even though the last two starts by Curt against the Angels have not been good, it is the playoffs. In the post season hehas the best winning percentage at .800 (8-2/10+ DEC) and the 3rd best ERA at 2.06 (100+ IP) in post-season history. Schilling is 3-0 in 4 lifetime Division Series starts with a 1.14 ERA (4 ER/31.2 IP), the 4th best all-time among pitchers with at least 20 innings. He is 8-1 in his last 12 post-season starts, the loss coming to the Yankees in Game 1 of the 2004 ALCS.

The question is how will Weaver handle this start. It is now win or go home time for the Angels and that can sometimes be over powering for young starters. Stay tuned at three to see what will be. (I say Sox clinch).

♊ - When all else fails, get a bigger hammer!

Red Sox 07 Recap ALDS Game 2

ALDS - game 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Final

Press PassBox Score Play - by - PlayGame Recap
Team123456789RHE
Anaheim 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 0
Boston 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 6 6 1

W: J. Papelbon (1-0) L: J. Speier (0-1)
HR ➢ Bos: M. Ramirez (1)

☼ Sun - MBM - 3 run shot after another IBB to Ortiz
☁ Cloud - Rodriguez - Tried to sneak that one by MBM, it didn't work.

Game thoughts!


So, the game seemed to start off with some angst as Daisuke struggled in the first (31 pitches) but did not allow any runs. The bottom of the first saw a key 2 out hit by J.D. Drew to spot the team to an early 2-0 lead. Sadly Daisuke reverted to his Matt Clement tendencies and allowed the Angels to tie the game and then take a 3-2 lead after 1 1/2 innings. This was not what Theo and Francona had in mind when they named him the #2 starter in the playoffs. I don't know, maybe they should have taken a longer look at his home and away splits.

Still, Daisuke did seem to settle down after his shaky second inning. A ten pitch third, helped by a smart play by Lugo throwing out Anderson at third was followed by a ten pitch fourth, both innings started with lead off hits though. That was the bright spots of his outing, since he could not get out of the fifth inning and left with runners on first and third. Thankfully, Lopez was able to get Morales to ground out to end the inning. Daisuke's final pitch count 96 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. THE MAN NEEDS TO START TRUSTING HIS STUFF!

The bottom of the fifth saw the Sox tie the game, removing Daisuke from the Loss Column, when Pedroia led off with a double, moved to third on Youkilis's ground out and was able to score on Mike Lowell's sacrifice fly after Ortiz (intentional) and Ramirez (thanks Kid) walked. It seemed like the Sox might do more damage as Drew battled in a 10 pitch at bat that saw a ground out. Those pitches were the last ones that Escobar would throw for the night.

Both bull pens did their jobs in the sixth, seventh and the bottom of the eighth innings. The top of the eighth did see some unusual activity.

After Okajima retired both Kotchman (F7) and Morales (swinging K) Francona brought in the Bot. One pitch and it looked like the inning was over but the normally sure handed Lowell made a bad throw to first on Kindricks ground ball and Youkilis could not dig it out of the dirt. On the 1-0 pitch Kendrick stole second. Scioscia brought in a pinch hitter (unusual to say the least) for Mathis and with the count 1-1 Rivera worked a walk (on strike 3). With pinch runner Willits stealing second (Kendrick stole third during Rivera's at bat) on a 1-1 pitch, the table was set for a disastrous outing by the Bot. Figgins though looked at an 88 mph split for strike three and it was to the bottom of the eighth.

What should have been a one pitch outing by the Bot instead became a thirteen pitch inning. Still, no blood no foul.

Speier induced two ground outs by Drew and Varitek (Tek just missed a pesky pole HR) and Crisp flied out to right in the bottom of the eighth. The ninth inning started out well for Bot as he got two pop ups to Lugo before walking Anderson. Izturis though followed that walk by popping up on the first pitch to Lugo. The stage was now set for the heroics.

Lugo started off the ninth by singling and on the first pitch to Pedroia, broke for second which prevented the double play on his grounder to short. Time for K-rod to come into the game and I was now sitting on the edge of my seat. With Lugo on 2nd with only one out, you knew that Papi would get a chance to bat.

Youkilis heightened the tension by striking out on a pitch in the dirt setting the stage. Would K-rod face Ortiz (.400 BA) or would Sciosia walk Papi for the second time to face Manny (2-9)? The Angel skipper went with option two and on the second pitch to Manny Fenway Park went ballistic as the ball was crushed over the left field wall. Sox Win, Sox Win!!

Oh, yeah the Yankees lost in extra innings!

♊ - Morbid and creepifing I can handle as long as we do it quiet like.