NFL 2008 Week 17 Preview

Well week sixteen has came and went and PLLS went 8-8 for the week and now 133-107 for the year. So once again we are looking to do better this week!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week seventeen of the 2008 season.

Week 17 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Atlanta	-14.5	St. Louis	Atlanta	STL 20-10
NE Patriots	-6.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	NE 30-15
Cincinnati	-2.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	Cin 17-12
Green Bay	-10.5	Detroit	Detroit	GB 26-20
Tennessee	-3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	Ind 26-16
Minnesota	-6.5	NY Giants	Minnesota	NY 32-29
Carolina	-3.5	New Orleans	New Orleans	Car 23-20
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Pit 24-12
Tampa Bay	-13.5	Oakland	Oakland	TB 27-14
Houston	-3.5	Chicago	Chicago	Hou 26-13
Baltimore	-12.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 24-21
San Fran	-3.5	Washington	Washington	SF 23-19
NY Jets	-2.5	Miami	NY Jets	Mia 24-20
Philadelphia	-1.5	Dallas	Philly	Dal 20-13
Arizona	-5.5	Seattle	Arizona	AZ 16-10
San Diego	-8.5	Denver	SD	SD 27-22

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - St. Louis at Atlanta (14-5) - Atlanta is 6-1 ATS at home, St. Louis 2-5. ATL is averaging 29.43 APG at home, St. Louis 11.43 on the road. Atlanta is playing for a possible first round bye STL is making golf plans.

❄ - NE Patriots at Buffalo (-6.5) - NE is 5-2 ATS on the road but is only 2-1 ATS as Road Favorites, the two covers against Oakland and San Fran. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS at home but this is the first time all year they are Home Dogs. NE wins but Buffalo covers.

❄ - Kansas City at Cincinnati (2.5) - Cincy is 4-3 ATS at home but has a 12.29 APG while KC has been road warriors all year going 5-2 ATS.

❄ - Detroit at Green Bay (10.5) - Green Bay has yet to cover any game over 5.5 points at home this year. Detroit is 5-2 ATS on the road.

❄ - Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3.5) - Two teams with nothing to play for but pride, taking the home team.

❄ - NY Giants at Minnesota (6.5) - NY is set, Minnesota is fighting for the play offs. More desperate team wins.

❄ - Carolina at New Orleans (-3.5) - New Orleans is 6-1 at home and 6-1 ATS at home. Carolina is 3-4 ATS and 3-4 on the road. Enough said.

❄ - Cleveland at Pittsburgh (10.5) - Cleveland is 4-3 ATS on the road and Pit is 3-4 ATS at home. Neither team has anything to play for but Cleveland is playing for pride.

❄ - Oakland at Tampa Bay (13.5) - Tampa Bay has yet to cover any game at home over 8.5 points. That trend continues.

❄ - Chicago at Houston (3.5) - Houston is 5-2 at home while Chicago is only 3-4 on the road, the Bears do better versus the spread but Houston is playing for its first non-losing season ever and is playing at home (did I mention that?).

❄ - Miami at NY Jets (2.5) - Miami does better on the road ATS (5-2) than the Jets do at home ATS (3-4) but NY is 5-2 at home this year only losing to the Pats and Denver. Look for that to continue this Sunday.

❄ - Dallas at Philadelphia (1.5) - All the marbles on the line for the Cowboys, so of course Philadelphia will win the game. I HAVE NO FAITH IN ROMO OR T.O. OR BARBER AND MOST OF ALL IN WADE PHILLIPS.

❄ - Jacksonville at Baltimore (12.5) - Baltimore is 6-1 ATS at home, Jacksonville 3-4 ATS on the road Baltimore will be playing to protect players, Jacksonville sucks. Taking the Jaguars because the Ravens are only scoring 21.86 APG at home while Jacksonville scores 20.14 APG on the road.

❄ - Washington at San Francisco (3.5) - SF is 3-4 ATS at home, Washington is 3-4 ATS on the road. While I think Singletary has the 49ers playing with passion and pride, the Redskins are playing to end up over .500. Upset special as the Redskins beat the 49ers.

❄ - Seattle at Arizona (5.5) - See the argument for the Skins above and add the fact that Arizona is 4-3 ATS at home.

❄ - Denver at San Diego (8.5) - Revenge time for the Chargers as they blow out the Broncos and avenge their earlier, controversial loss at Denver. Chargers make the play offs at 8-8.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

Merry Christmas in 2008

Merry Christmas and because nothing really ever changes at the s1c household (this years tree is like every tree every year).





oh, yeah, Scott Boras is well the bird of prey.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Preview

Well week fifteen was another loser. 7-9 for the week and now 125-99 for the year. So once again we are looking to do better this week!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week sixteen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Indianapolis	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 24-21
Dallas	-4.5	Baltimore	Dallas	Dal 21-14
Cleveland	-3.5	Cincinnati	Cleveland	Cle 30-13
New Orleans	-6.5	Detroit	New Orleans	Det 20-17
Pittsburgh	-1.5	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pit 21-7
Miami	-3.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	KC 23-18
San Francisco	-5.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	STL 23-16
NE Patriots	-7.5	Arizona	NE Patriots	NE 21-17
Tampa Bay	-3.5	San Diego	Tampa Bay	TB 32-20
NY Jets	-4.5	Seattle	Seattle	NY 30-20
Houston	-7.5	Oakland	Houston	Hou 27-17
Denver	-6.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	Den 24-10
Philadelphia	-4.5	Washington	Philadelphia	Was 28-26
Minnesota	-3.5	Atlanta	Minnesota	Atl 27-17
NY Giants	-3.5	Carolina	NY Giants	NY 24-16
Chicago	-4.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 24-17

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

 ❄ - Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-6.5) - Well I lost that game as I thought that Jacksonville would stay close, of course that sack at the Colt 7 yard line pretty much sums up the Jaguars season, inexcusable.

 ❄ - Baltimore at Dallas (4.5) - Cowboys more desperate.

 ❄ - Cincinnati at Cleveland (3.5) - ugllly visits ugly. Take the home team

 ❄ - New Orleans at Detroit (-6.5) - Detroit is 1-6 at home ATS while New Orleans is 3-4. Only the second time all year that New Orleans is favored on the road. Look for New Orleans to run up the score here.

 ❄ - Pittsburgh at Tennessee (-1.5) - Both teams are good but I think the Steelers are due for a loss just from the week after week of tough competition. Take the home field advantage.

 ❄ - Miami at Kansas City (-3.5) - KC is 3-3 as a home underdog ATS. Miami is 0-1 as a road favorite. Take the points.

 ❄ - San Francisco at St. Louis (-5.5) - San Francisco is 4-3 ATS on the road which is slightly better than St. Louis's 3-4 ATS at home. Going against the trends here since this is the first time all year that San Fran is a road favorite.

 ❄ - Arizona at NE Patriots (7.5) - hmm, west coast team on the east coast playing a 1:00 p.m. game and oh yeah it will probably be snowing / sleeting / ugly weather at Gillette Stadium. Take the Patriots and give the points.

 ❄ - San Diego at Tampa Bay (3.5) - See above comment minus the weather. Actually Tampa Bay is still playing for the play offs, San Diego is just playing.

 ❄ - NY Jets at Seattle (-4.5) - Last home game for the Holmgren regime in Seattle. Look for the Seahawks to make this a close game.

 ❄ - Houston at Oakland (-7.5) - Houston is playing for their first non-losing season, is 4-3 on the road ATS (as underdogs everyone) but then they are playing the dysfunctional Raiders as in the 1-6 ATS at home Raiders.

 ❄ - Buffalo at Denver (6.5) - Denver is 0-6 ATS as Home Favorites this year. Enough said.

 ❄ - Philadelphia at Washington (-4.5) - Philly is 4-3 ATS on the road and 2-2 as Road Favorites. While not overwhelming numbers they are better than the Redskins 2-5 ATS at home and 0-2 as home underdogs. Oh, yeah, Eagles are still playing for a shot at the play offs, the skins, well, they are setting up their golf plans.

 ❄ - Atlanta at Minnesota (3.5) - Neither team is exceptional in this situation but the Vikings are 3-2 as Home Favorites while the Falcons are 2-4 as Road Underdogs.

 ❄ - Carolina at NY Giants (3.5) - Tough pick here but the Giants are just better in all aspects but most importantly they are 5-0 when favored by 8 points or less at home while the Panthers are 1-3 as road underdogs where the spread is less than 4 points.

 ❄ - Green Bay at Chicago (4.5) - even steven all the way, look for Green Bay to keep it close 21-18 Chicago.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Saturday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week seventeen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Saturday Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Dallas	-4.5	Baltimore	Dallas	Dal 21-14

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Baltimore at Dallas (4.5) - Baltimore has been a covering team most of the year and Dallas barely breaks even, but Dallas is fighting for a playoff spot while Baltimore is less desperate. Going with desperation tonight.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Thursday Night Game

NFL 2008 Week 16 Thursday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week sixteen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Indianapolis	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-6.5) - Indianapolis is 4-3 ATS on the road but has yet to cover when they are greater than 4 point favorites. Also, big time injuries on the Colts. So, even though Jacksonville has only covered once at home all year, I'm going with the Jags.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 15 Preview

Well, last week was abysmal, actually beyond abysmal, 5-11 for the week and now 118-90 through week 14. Looking to do better this week, of course it would pretty hard to do worse!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week fifteen of the 2008 season.

Week 15 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Chicago	-2.5	New Orleans	Chicago	NO 27-21
Atlanta	-2.5	Tampa Bay	Atlanta	TB 23-17
Washington	-6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Was 24-23
Indianapolis	-16.5	Detroit	Detroit	Ind 34-16
San Diego	-5.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	SD 29-14
Green Bay	-1.5	Jacksonville	Green Bay	Jax 38-31
Tennessee	-3.5	Houston	Tennessee	Hou 17-13
Seattle	-3.5	St. Louis	Seattle	STL 28-23
Miami	-6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Mia 17-16
NY Jets	-7.5	Buffalo	NY Jets	NY 24-10
Arizona	-3.5	Minnesota	Arizona	AZ 35-21
Carolina	-7.5	Denver	Denver	Den 21-17
Baltimore	-1.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore	Bal 20-17
NE Patriots	-7.5	Oakland	NE Patriots	NE 35-10
Dallas	-2.5	NY Giants	NY Giants	Dal 23-20
Philadelphia	-14.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Phi 17-13

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - New Orleans at Chicago (2.5) - see what I thought here.
❄ - Tampa Bay at Atlanta (2.5) - Atlanta is 5-1 at home and 5-1 ATS at home. TB 3-4 ATS on the road.
❄ - Washington at Cincinnati (-6.5) - Tough one here, Washington is 3-3 ATS on the road but is only 1-1 ATS as a road Favorite. Cincinnati is just as bad at home 2-4 but is 2-2 as the home dog. Taking Cincy.
❄ - Detroit at Indianapols (16.5) - Detroit is 4-2 on the road ATS, but is 4-0 when the spread is over 8 points. Indy is only 2-4 ATS at home. Take the points, go Lions.
❄ - San Diego at Kansas City (-5.5) - San Diego is 1-5 on the road this year, 2-4 ATS but is on 1-3 ATS as the road Favorite. While KC is usually better ATS on the road, the Chiefs only lost by one in SD. Taking the points.
❄ - Green Bay at Jacksonville (-1.5) - Green Bay is only 2-4 on the road this year but is 4-2 ATS. Jacksonville has yet to cover at home and is 1-5 at home. Going with the team with something on the line here, give the points.
❄ - Tennessee at Houston (-3.5) - Tennessee is 5-1 ATS spread on the road. Houston is 2-4. Give the points
❄ - Seattle at St. Louis (-3.5) - Seattle 3-3 ATS, St. Louis 2-4. This is the first time that Seattle has been favored on the road all year. Seattle killed St. Louis in week 3. Give the points.
❄ - San Francisco at Miami (6.5) - Miami has yet to cover as a favorite. San Francisco is 3-3 ATS on the Road. Going with the 49ers.
❄ - Buffalo at NY Jets (7.5) - Two teams that have been inconsistent all year. Still the Jets pummeled the Bills on the road and I think are set for a huge rebound against a familiar opponent. Both teams are 3-3 ATS in this situation but J-E-T-S.
❄ - Minnesota at Arizona (3.5) - Arizona 4-2 ATS at home, Minnesota 2-5 ATS on the road. Give the points.
❄ - Denver at Carolina (7.5) - Denver is 4-2 ATS on the road, 3-1 as road dogs. Carolina 4-3 ATS at home, looking for Carolina to win, but Denver to cover.
❄ - Pittsburgh at Baltimore (1.5) - This is an even steven game, but looking for pay back for the Ravens. Give the points.
❄ - NE Patriots at Oakland (-7.5) - Oakland has only covered once at home, last week against the Jets. Patriots are better ATS on the road than at home. Take the Pats!!!
❄ - NY Giants at Dallas (2.5) - Dallas 6-5 as Favorites, 3-3 as Home Favorites. Giants are 2-0 as road dogs. Cowboys are more desperate, Giants killed them in week 9. Take the points.
❄ - Cleveland at Philadelphia (14.5) - Both teams are 4-2 ATS in this situation, but Cleveland is 7-3 ATS as Dogs while Philly is only 6-5 as favorites. Taking the points.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 15 Thursday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 15 Thursday Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Chicago	-2.5	New Orleans	Chicago	NO 27-21

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - New Orleans at Chicago (2.5) - There are some good reasons to pick New Orleans in this game, but I think the following are even more important:

• Chicago is 4-2 at Home while New Orleans is 1-5
• Both teams are 3-3 ATS in this situation but Chicago is 4-3 as a Favorite while New Orleans is only 2-3 as the Underdog
• Chicago is averaging 26.67 points at home while New Orleans is only averaging 22.17 points on the road, that is a 6.5 points fewer than they are averaing overall.
• It is in Chicago where it will be below freezing with snow flurries.

Yep, looks like it is Chicago for me!!!

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 14 Preview

Last week was abysmal, 7-9 and makes us 113-79 through week thirteen. Not the way I want to finish out the year and not the way I need this week to go.

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 14 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
San Diego	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	SD 34-15
Chicago	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 26-14
Minnesota	-9.5	Detroit	Minnesota	Det 20-14
Green Bay	-6.5	Houston	Green Bay	GB 31-10
Tennessee	-13.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Ten 38-10
Indianapolis	-13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Ind 34-24
New Orleans	-3.5	Atlanta	New Orleans	Atl 27-24
NY Giants	-8.5	Philadelphia	New York	NY 33-27
NY Jets	-3.5	San Francisco	New York	Jets 23-17
Denver	-9.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	Den 23-9
Buffalo	-1.5	Miami	Miami	Mia 24-21
NE Patriots	-5.5	Seattle	NE Patriots	NE 19-16
Arizona	-13.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	Az 24-21
Pittsburgh	-2.5	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 35-19
Baltimore	-5.5	Washington	Baltimore	Bal 27-24
Carolina	-3.5	Tampa Bay	Carolina	TB 21-24

Well, here goes in bullet form:

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - Oakland at San Diego (10.5) - Oakland 4-2 ATS and the underachieving Chargers 2-4 ATS. Furthermore Oakland is 5-6 as the Underdog while San Diego is only 3-8 as the favorite. Plus a 10.5 spread, in six games at home they only have two wins over 11 points. Not Buying it, taking Oakland and the points.

❄ - Jacksonville at Chicago (6.5 ) - Jacksonville is on 3-3 ATS while Chicago is 2-4. Futhermore Chicago has only won three of their games by a margin greater than 7. Go with the Jags to cover.

❄ - Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5) - Detroit is 0-6 ATS, enough said.

❄ - Houston at Green Bay (6.5) - Houston is 1-5 on the road and 3-3 ATS on the road, Green Bay is 3-3 at home and 3-3 ATS. Additionaly Green Bay is 3-2 as the favorite while Houston is only 3-4 as the underdog. Going with Green Bay.

❄ - Cleveland at Tennessee (13.5) - Cleveland is 4-1 ATS on the road and is 3-2 on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home and 4-2 ATS. Further more, Tennessee only has 1 win that is greater than 13.5 points at home. Tough one here, but am going to go with Cleveland.

❄ - Cincinnati at Indianapolis (13.5) - Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS when they are 10+ underdogs, 0-3 otherwise. Indianapolis is 0-4 with a spread greater than 4.5, 1-0 otherwise. This game is all about the spread.

❄ - Atlanta at New Orleans (3.5) - Atlanta is 3-3 ATS and on the Road, New Orleans is 5-1 ATS and at Home, When the Saints, come marching in!!!

❄ - Philadelphia at NY Giants (8.5) - Giants 6-0 at home, 5-1 ATS while Philadelphia is 2-3 on the road and 3-3 ATS, as much as I hate to say it, Giants.

❄ - NY Jets at San Francisco (-3.5) - Jets are 4-2 ATS and on the road. San Fran is 2-4 ATS at home and are 2-1 as home favorites. Looks like a J-E-T-S game to me.

❄ - Kansas City at Denver (9.5) - As a double digit underdog KC is 3-0, as Underdog on the road they are 4-2. For Denver, the only team they covered at home was San Diego when they were a 2.5 underdog. They are 0-5 as home favorites ATS.

❄ - Miami at Buffalo (1.5) - Buffalo is 2-0 ATS when less than a point favorite at home, otherwise they are 0-4. Miami is 3-2 ATS to match their 3-2 record on the road (Miami won first meeting 25-15).

❄ - NE Patriots at Seattle (-5.5) - Patriots are 4-1 ATS on the road and have a 3-2 record, Seattle, well they stink at home as they have went 1-5 and 2-4 ATS.

❄ - St. Louis at Arizona (13.5) - Arizona is 4-1 at home and 3-2 ATS but have yet to cover when home favorites greater than 7. St. Louis is 2-4 ATS and 1-5 on the road. The spread is the key and I am saying St. Louis covers.

❄ - Dallas at Pittsburgh (2.5) - Dallas is 3-3 on the road and ATS, but has yet to cover as an underdog or if the spread is greater than 3.5 favorites. Pittsburgh is only 2-4 ATS at home but 2-1 as home favorites over 6.0. Look for the Cowboys to not only cover but win out right.

❄ - Washington at Baltimore (5.5) - Baltimore is 4-1 at home but 5-0 ATS the spread at home. Washington is 3-2 ATS while going 4-1 on the road. The Skins are coming off of a tough loss at home to the Giants. Ravens, baby, Ravens.

❄ - Tampa Bay at Carolina (3.5) - Carolina is 6-0 at home and 3-3 as home favorites. Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS on the road and the Bucs are 1-1 as road favorites, 2-2 as dogs. Going with Carolina!

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 14 Thursday Game

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for the Thursday night game in this week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
San Diego	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	SD 34-15

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Oakland at San Diego (10.5) - Oakland 4-2 ATS and the underachieving Chargers 2-4 ATS. Furthermore Oakland is 5-6 as the Underdog while San Diego is only 3-8 as the favorite. Plus a 10.5 spread, in six games at home they only have two wins over 11 points. Not Buying it, taking Oakland and the points.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.