Reasons Not To Gamble

So come down to the last day of the regular season, Cowboys needed to win to win the division with an eagles loss. Well, the boys an eleven point favorite lose by 8 making the eagles game insignificant so the back ups play and they lose to Atlanta. That is why I only play games not bet on Football. You just never know. Oh, yeah, I picked the Bears to beat Green Bay, well, of course that isn't going to happen (right now I feel like Charlie Brown).

Still, even if I lose the Bears game I will be 8 games under .500 and still be in the top 80% of those playing the Pigskin Pick'em game at ESPN. com. That is why only suckers bet on outcomes they don't control.

aaaargh II

Sometimes its not good being a Cowboys fan. 2 Turnovers lead to 14 points and they lose by 6. Aaaaaargh.

Australia celebrates 2007

Remember, its almost here. Have a good evening and if you must drink (and I must), remember friends don't let friends drive drunk.

Hall Of Fame I - David Wells

Earlier today I had a discussion with one of my co-workers about Hall of Fame Worthiness of former Red Sox players and Randy Johnson. Specifically we discussed Jim Rice, Manny, Curt Schilling, and David Wells.

My first thought is Rice definitely should be in the hall, Manny will be a first ballot electee and the other two are no go's. Randy Johnson will also be a first ballot electee. Other Red Sox players or ex players that are coming up on their retirements that will be elected are Pedro, possibly Nomar, David Ortiz if he continues his output for 3 to 4 more years will be and of course the elephant in the room Roger.

Of course I decided to go look at some of the numbers to see if I can justify their exclusion or their elections.

First lets look at Wells - he has pitched for 20 years in the majors with a 230 wins and 148 losses for a .608 winning percentage. Now I am one of those who says 300 wins you are in, less than 300 you better be special. Wells is not special, he had only one year where he has won 20, one year where he won 19, and one year where he won 18. Career ERA is 4.07 which does compare favorably with league era of 4.45.

If you look at his comparable pitchers you will find listed -

1. Jamie Moyer - not a HOFer
2. Kenny Rogers - not a HOFer
3. Mike Mussina - Possible HOFer
4. Schilling - not a HOFer
5. Kevin Brown - not a HOFer
6. Herb Pennock - HOF
7. Lew Burdette - not a HOFer
8. Bob Welch - not a HOFer
9. Freddie Fitzsimmons - not a HOFer
10. Carl Hubbell - HOF

So out of 10 comparable pitchers you have 2 HOF and 1 possible HOF. I like David but so far, not Hall of Fame Material.

Now usually you can make a case by saying over a 5 or 10 year period did he dominate the league?. Lets look at his best 10 year period, in wins:

1995 - 2004
Won 149 - Lost 83 (.642 %), in 2036 + innings with a ERA of 4.11. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 174 - 83 in 2270+ innings with a 2.89 ERA
2. Johnson - 165 - 66 in 2122+ innings with a 2.7 ERA
3. Pedro - 161 - 65 in 2036+ innings with a 2.67 ERA
4. Mussina - 159 - 98 in 2160+ innings with a 3.72 ERA
   
5. Clemens - 156 - 71 in 2099+ innings with a 3.29 ERA
6. Pettitte - 155 - 82 in 1875+ innings with a 3.94 ERA
7. Glavine - 154 - 96 in 2218 innings with a 3.34 ERA
   
8. Wells
   
9. Schilling - 148 - 86 in 2123+ innings with a 3.25 ERA
10. Moyer 141 - 75 in 1938+ innings with a 4.01 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 7th in percentage (minimum 100 wins), 6th in Shutouts (minimum 100 wins), and 18th in ERA (minimum 100 wins).

So far, a top tier pitcher but HOF? I say no!

Lets look at his best 5 year period, in wins:

1996 - 2000
Won 82 - Lost 46 (.641 %), in 1118 innings with a ERA of 4.36. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 90 - 42 in 1197+ innings with a 2.73 ERA
2. Pedro - 90 - 36 in 1122 innings with a 2.45 ERA
3. Pettitte - 88 - 45 in 1074 innings with a 3.96 ERA
4. Glavine - 84 - 43 in 1179+ innings with a 3.19 ERA
5. Brown - 82 - 41 in 1209+ innings with a 2.51 ERA
   
6. Wells
7. Johnson - 80 - 31 in 1039 innings with a 2.74 ERA
8. Clemens - 78 - 44 in 1133+ innings with a 3.23 ERA
9. Neagle - 76 - 39 in 985+ innings with a 3.69 ERA
10. Mussina - 76 - 51 in 1115+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 10th in percentage (minimum 50 wins), 5th in Shutouts (minimum 50 wins), and 36th in ERA (minimum 50 wins).

Again a top tier Pitcher but not HOF.

Update: Bill James agrees with me. Go here.

Merry Christmas

From our house to your puter.

Thursday night football

Green Bay 28 - Minnesota 17.

NFL - Week 15

Well, it is time for the week 15 of the NFL picks. Last week I went 6 and 10 again, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 15 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Seattle	- 9 1/2	San Fran.	San Fran.	Seattle	Sea 14 - SF 24
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Atlanta	Dallas	Atlanta	Dal 38 - Atl 28
Minnesota	- 3 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Minnesota	Min 13 - NY 26
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jacksonville	Jac 17 - Ten 24
Green Bay	- 4 1/2	Detroit	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 17 - Det 9
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Chicago	Chi 34 - TB 31
New Orleans	- 9 1/2	Washington	Washington	Washington	NO 10 - Was 16
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Carolina	Pittsburgh	Carolina	Pit 37 - Car 3
Baltimore	- 11 1/2	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland	Bal 27 - Cle 17
New England	- 11 1/2	Houston	Houston	Houston	NE 40 - Hou 7
Buffalo	- 1 1/2	Miami	Miami	Buffalo	Buf 21 - Mia 0
Denver	- 2 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	Denver	Den 37 - AZ 20
NY Giants	- 5 1/2	Philadelphia	Giants	Giants	NY 22 - Phi 36
San Diego	- 8 1/2	Kansas City	San Diego	Kansas City	SD 20 - KC 9
Oakland	- 1 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Oakland	Oak 0 - STL 20
Indianapolis	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Indianapolis	Ind 34 - Cin 16

Seattle San Francisco and Dallas Atlanta games I picked earlier but did not post (espn pigskin pick'em). So far am 2 - 0 Madden 07 picked 35 - 15 Seattle and 27 - 24 Atlanta.

Sunday and Monday's games

Minnesota vs NY Jets - Both teams are in the play off hunt but the Vikings are 6 - 7 ATS while the Jets are 8 - 5. Jets 24 - Vikings 21. Madden 07 pick 27 - 20 Vikings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - Titans make it 5 in a row 27 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-21 Jaguars.

Green Bay vs Detroit - Favre's best game of the year against the lowly Lions, today he repeats that performance, Packers 35 - Lions 21. Madden 07 pick 24-14 Packers.

Chicago vs Tampa Bay - Double digit spread? Bears win 28 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-10 Bears.

New Orleans vs Washington - Saints are 9 and 4 ATS but today they stumble and win 21 - 17. Madden 07 pick 24 - 17.

Pittsburgh at Carolina - Wenke is 3 and 19 as a starter. Pittsburgh 6 - 7 ATS and Carolina is like 1 and 5 at home ATS. Pittsburgh 17 - Carolina 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 10 Panthers. (I keep on changing my mind on this but when you stink as a starter you stink)

Baltimore vs Cleveland - Ravens are 8 - 5 ATS but I don't trust their offense against this divisional foe, Ravens 21 - Browns 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 13 Ravens.

New England vs Houston - Patriots struggle at home this year, Houston has enough offense to keep the injury riddled Pats on the field all day. Patriots 21 - Texans 17. Madden 07 pick 38 - 31 Pats.

Buffalo vs Miami - I think the win over the Patriots last week and Miami's record the last month of a season means the Dolphins win this game 28 - 17. Madden 07 pick 30 - 27 Bills.

Denver at Arizon - Lienart vs Cutler, I'm going with Lienart winning this game 35 - 28. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Bronco's.

NY Giants vs Philadelphia - Giants won the first game and usually the team that wins the first one in this series sweeps. Giants 35 - Eagles 21. Madden 07 pick 24-13 Giants. (another game where I keep on being a Charlie Brown, sticking with Eli to continue to shine and Garcia is due for one of his atrocious games)

San Diego vs Kansas City - Kansas City continues its free fall, Charges win 35 - 17. Madden 07 pick 22 - 17 Chargers.

Oakland vs St. Louis - I like Art Shell as a person, but as a coach he is bilge water. St. Louis kicks a 59 yard field goal to win 24 - 22. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Raiders.

Indianapolis vs Cincinnati - Have you seen the Colts defense, if spotted please tell Tony Dungy. Cincinnati comes out blazing and nips the Colts late 43 - 42. Madden 07 pick 28-24 Colts.

See you later.

Win Shares III

Recapping, we have now signed J.D., Lugo, Dice, Donelly, Romero and Mirabelli. So lets take a look at how our win shares are now looking:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	15	SP	Schilling	14
1b	Youkilis	11	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	19	SP	Wakefield	10
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon	12 *
2b	Pedroia	15 **	SP	Matsuzaka	12 *
LF	Rameriz	30	RP	Timlin	8
CF	Crisp	15	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	23	RP	DelCarmen	2
DH	Ortiz	28
1 / 3b	Hinske	9	RP	Donnelly	6
2b / ss	Cora	9	RP	Romero	4
OF	Wily Mo	9	RP	Okajami	6 ***
C	Mirabelli	5	RP	Unknown
	Totals	162			92

Using the 3 year average of all players unless otherwise noted.

* Average of top 90 starting pitchers over the last 3 years.
** Average of top 30 starting 2B over the last 3 years.
*** Average of top 150 relief pitchers for last 3 years.

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. This totals 254 right now which is
31 short of the expected goal. Of course we do not have a closer which would push us closer to the magic number.

All win share information determined from The Hardball Times.

The only problem is that if you were to take a look at the top Win Shares for closers over the last 3 years you will see that the leaders have posted 17 (lidge), 16 (rivera) and 18 (papelbon). The average of the top 30 is only 11.5 shares. Obviously, no matter who we get as a closer would leave us short by either 14 or 20 to reach this magic number. Not looking good for 95 wins.

Dice's news conference

Found this through the Boston Sports Media site. Pretty good translation of yesterdays questions and answers during the press conference. Dice appears to be level headed, I found it intriguing that he stated he hopes to make the starting line up. No big head yet for this guy, and I think that bodes well.

Well How About That

Ok, so I was wrong and Boras didn't blow up the posting system. Am just glad that Dice forced Boras to his knees for us. Glad to see a player who understands that the agent works for him. Theo also made a couple of additions today that should help on the bullpen side, no closer yet, but the bullpen should be better than last year.

Football picks later tonight.

RSN held hostage

Peter Gammons pipes in with his thoughts on the Matsuzaka negotiations. I have commented at a couple of places that I think that Boras wants to destroy the posting system and is using Matsuzaka as the player to do this. He keeps on pointing out that this player is better than Schmidt, Zito etc., so the sox should be willing to go to 18 to 20 mil. for Dice K. While I agree that he is a better pitcher than the Lily's and so forth, is he better than Schilling? Is he better than Pettitte?

I really feel that this is not going to get done, Boras thinks he's Curt Flood, and the bird of prey is circling the Sox front office.

Creme W BB Projections 1

Charlie Creme has came out with his first projections for the Womens NCAA Basketball tournament. Since his bracketology postings change every time I thought I would reproduce it every time he updates here at Peace Love. That way we can see how they progress.

Dayton

Bracketology 1

Seed	Fresno	Greensboro	Dallas
1	Duke	ACC	Big 12	Maryland
16	NEC	SWAC	A - Sun	MEAC
8	C - USA	Rutgers	MWC	MAC
9	Pittsburgh	Washington	Boston College	Temple
5	Texas A & M	A- 10	DePaul	Michigan St.
12	Western Ky	Hofstra	TCU	Horizon
4	Louisville	Vanderbilt	Stanford	California
13	Southern	MVC	Montana	Big South
6	Marquette	Kentucky	Texas Tech	Florida St.
11	WAC	Sun Belt	CAA	America East
3	Pac-10	Baylor	Purdue	Georgia
14	WCC	Mid-Con	Southland	MAAC
7	NC State	Texas	South Florida	Virginia
10	Indiana	BYU	Kansas St.	Nebraska
2	SEC	Big Ten	LSU	Big East
15	IVY	Big West	OVC	Patriot

Bids By Conference

Conf	Teams	Conf	Teams
ACC	Duke, UNC, NC St., Maryland, Florida ST., Virginia, Boston College	Big East	Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida, DePaul, Marquette
Big 12	Texas A & M, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Kansas State	SEC	Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Pac 10	Washington, Arizona St., Stanford, California	Big 10	Indiana, Ohio St., Purdue, Michigan St.
Mount. W.	TCU, New Mexico, BYU	Atl. 10	Temple, George Washington
Sun Belt	Middle Tenn. St. Western Ky.	Colonial	Delaware, Hofstra
NEC	Quinnipiac	SWAC	Jackson St.
MVC	Illinois St.	C-USA	Rice
Southern	Chattanooga	WAC	Fresno St.
Mid-Con	Oral Roberts	WCC	Pepperdine
Ivy	Penn	Big West	UC Santa Barbara
A-Sun	Belmont	MEAC	Coppin St.
MAC	Bowling Green	Horizon	UW-Green Bay
Big South	Liberty	Big Sky	Montana
America E.	Hartford	MAAC	Marist
OVC	Samford	Southland	SE Louisiana
Patriot	Army

Last four in Kansas St., W. Kentucky, TCU and Hofstra.
Last four out UCLA, Missouri, Southern Cal., and Notre Dame.

34 of the teams come from six conferences and 21 come from 3.

Looking at Drew II

Rob Neyer takes a look at what all of these high priced free agents have to do to earn their outrageous salaries next year.

Drew signed a five-year contract that will pay him $70 million, which works out to $14 million per season, otherwise known as average annual value (AAV). Last season, Drew's WARP was 7.3 and he earned 19 win shares. Essentially, if he can duplicate his 2006 numbers in 2007, he'll be worth that $14 million. Roughly speaking, that means 150 games, a .285 batting average, 20 homers and 90 walks. Does he have to do that every season to justify his salaries? No, because of that general salary inflation we mentioned earlier. If we assume that salary inflation will continue at roughly the same pace it has for many years now, Drew's $14 million in 2011 will be akin to approximately $10 million in 2007 dollars. Which is a good thing, because Drew is 31 years old. Like nearly all free agents, Drew is likely to suffer a performance decline over the course of his latest contract. Assuming he does reach those aforementioned statistical benchmarks in 2007, it becomes a race of trend lines: Will general salary inflation balance general decline with age?

This sounds about right to me also. Last week in looking at drew I posted that if he does his career average but stays on the field for 156 games he would put up some very good numbers. In fact he would exceed what Neyer says is needed. Makes me feel better about his potentials.

The General

So, Coach Knight is only three wins from tying Coach Smith for most career wins in college Basketball. Personally I have always liked the general. You can disagree with his methods, you can call him a bully, you can call him an egotist but what you must always call him is a man with high expectations for his players on and off the court. When you graduate your players at the rate he does, when you coach for decades without even a sniff of recruiting violations as compared to 99% of the other coaches in his field you must be doing something right. Best of all, his next victory moves the bigot one slot lower in the wins.

A good article about Coach Smith talking about this event can be found here. Notice the comments by Williams and Wooden.

NFL Picks Week 14

UPDATE: Started off strong by winning my first 4 picks, then watched the rest of the day get flushed down the toilet. JETS, why oh why do I pick the Jets at home, PATriots - 21 - 0, what did you forget how to score?

Well, it is time for the week 14 of the NFL picks. Last week I went 6 and 10, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 14 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Pittsburgh	- 7 1/2	Cleveland	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pit 27 - Cle 7
Kansas City	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore	Kansas City	KC 10 - Bal 20
Houston	- 1 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Hou 20 - Ten 26
Carolina	- 2 1/2	NY Giants	NY Giants	Carolina	Car 13 - NY 27
Cincinnati	- 10 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland	Cin 27 - Oak 10
Washington	- 1 1/2	Philadelphia	Washington	Washington	Was 19 - Phi 21
Atlanta	- 3 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Atl 17 - TB 6
Indianapolis	- 1 1/2	Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Ind 17 - Jac 44
Detroit	- 2 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota	Det 30 - Min 30
New England	- 3 1/2	Miami	New England	New England	NE 0 - Mia 21
San Francisco	- 4 1/2	Green Bay	San Francisco	San Francisco	SF 19 - GB 30
Seattle	- 3 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	Seattle	Sea 21 - AZ 27
NY Jets	- 3 1/2	Buffalo	NY Jets	Buffalo	NY 13 - Buf 31
San Diego	- 7 1/2	Denver	Denver	San Diego	SD 48 - Den 20
Dallas	- 6 1/2	New Orleans	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 17 - NO 42
Chicago	- 6 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	St. Louis	Chi 42 - STL 27

Pittsburgh vs Cleveland - picked on Thursday 27 - 10. Madden 07 pick 24 - 10 Pittsburgh.

Kansas City vs Baltimore - Baltimore bit the big one 10 days ago against a division rival. I see this a blip on the radar. Look for Baltimore to win on a late field goal 24 - 21. Madden 07 pick 24 - 19 Chiefs.

Houston vs Tennessee - Vince Young 5 and 3 as a starter, enough said. Titans win 21 - 14. Madden 07 pick 27 - 6 Tennessee.

Carolina vs NY Giants - Both teams are playing for their playoff lives, and both are struggling. Panthers have problems covering at home. Panthers are 1 - 5 ATS last six games against the NFC East. Going with the Giants 27 - 24. Madden 07 pick 31 - 14 Panthers.

Cincinatti vs Oakland - 10 1/2 points given to Oakland! Oakland's defense is better than that. Cincinatti 21 - Oakland 12. Madden 07 pick 24 - 15 Bengals.

Washington vs Philadelphia - Philly is on a semi role and still in the wild card hunt, but this is at Washington. Washington 14 - Philly 7. Madden 07 pick 13 - 10 Redskins.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Which Vick will show up, the one who played like Aikman in the first couple of games or the one who has played like, well crap is the best word for it. I think the crappy one plays as this is a division game and Atlanta is on the road. TB pulls the upset 21 - 17. Madden 07 pick 24 - 20 Buccaneers.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - I know the Colts have a playoff spot already wrapped up, but this is a divisional game and I just don't see the offense continuing to struggle. Colts 31 - Jaguars 21. (reason to shudder Jaguars are 6- 1 ATS as dogs, Colts are 1 - 6 ATS in their last 4 weeks of season). Madden 07 pick 20 - 13 Jaguars.

Detroit vs Minnesota - The Millen clock is ticking. Look for the Lions to drop another tough one at home. (reason to shudder Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs teams with losing records). Vikings 21 - Lions 17. Madden 07 pick 22 - 20 Lions.

New England at Miami - Why you should not pick the Patriots, 2 and 3 in last 5 games at Miami. 2 and 11 vs Miami in December. Why you should pick the Patriots - Brady is finally figuring out his wide receivers, the Pats are still in the hunt for home field advantage and Miami stinks on offense. Pats 31 - Dolphins 14. Madden 07 pick 30 - 24 Patriots.

San Francisco Vs Green Bay - Favre can not win these games by himself. San Francisco has steadily improved every week. 49ers 24 - GB 10. Madden 07 pick 24 - 17 49ers.

Seattle at Arizona - Seattle is still getting back in the flow with their returning players. Lienart is steadily improving and Dennis Green is usually good in the last month of the season. Arizon 28 - Seattle 21. Madden 07 pick 44 - 36 Seahawks.

NY Jets vs Buffalo - Mangini has this team playing well, Jets win going away 31 - 17. Madden 07 pick 20 - 17 Jets.

San Diego vs Denver - Its Shanahan vs Schottenheimer, offensive game with both teams racking up the points. San Diego 35 - Denver 31. Madden 07 pick 22 - 10 Chargers.

Dallas vs New Orleans - Dallas has too many weapons, Romo goes crazy and puts up 35 points, big D's defense cleans the ground with crushing tackles. (reason to shudder Saints are 6 - 1 ATS in the last 7 games as underdogs). Cowboys 35 - Saints 18. Madden 07 pick 30 - 13 Dallas.

Chicago at St. Louis - Even if Griese did take half of the snaps in practice this week their offense stinks, Da Bears win with defense but today St. Louis scores and scores, St. Louis 21 - Chicago 10. Madden 07 pick 20 - 17 Bears.

Pitt vs Cleveland

Real quick Pittsburgh 21 - Cleveland 10.

Looking at Drew

I have been trying to figure out a way to project what JD might achieve when he plays this year. As always I used the database at Baseball Musings. Needless to say he is hard to pigeonhole due to his injury history. I did find some very good information on his career. There are some things that do worry me:

• Against American League team at their parks his stats are:

Batting Average: .200

OBA: .287

Slugging: .300

• In forty games he has 4 home runs and 12 rbi's.
• He struck out 36 times and walked 16
• He also scored 13 times

In 3 games at fenway he had a .222 BA, .300 OBA, and a slugging % of .889. Of course the problem is that 3 games isn't a very good sample so how do we project his 81 games at Fenway?

Well, if you look at his last three years he averages 121 games played, batting .293, OBA of .415, and a slugging % of .532. If you project that over a 162 game period that would be 156 games started, 165 hits, 33 doubles, 7 triples, 29 home runs, 102 RBI's, 115 walks, and 121 K's.

How good of a projection is this? Not for sure, but it would represent a career high in games (146 2006), hits (158 2004), RBI's (100 2006) and strikeouts (116 2004). Looking at those numbers again maybe that isn't an outrageous of a projection. Will keep on thinking about ways his numbers should be weighted.

Revisting Win Shares 2

Well, now that Drew and Lugo have signed its time to revist the win shares for this team. The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	13	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
2b	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	171			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 221, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 257.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

Previously we had Loretta with 16 shares, now we have Lugo at 13 shares.

Think Bronson Arroyo will enjoy the new double play combination behind him this year? I still can't believe that the best double play combo I have ever seen play for the Sox lasted only one year.

Drew and Lugo

Have been busy for a couple of days, but have been getting a lot of enjoyment of hearing the Weei boys bust their guts screaming about the Drew and Lugo signings. Ordway (fat b******) and Callahan have been the two biggest screamers (what else is new eh - ed). Of course it wouldn't be me if I didn't go and look at some numbers as usual. So of course I went to Baseball Musings and pulled up their line up analysis database. Some interesting things here:

Lugo SS
Youkilis 1b
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Drew RF
Lowell 3b
Varitek C
Pedroia 2b
Crisp CF

This line up is projected to score 5.601 runs per game. That is a pretty good output for a team and would lead to 907 runs per game. I would take that from my offense any day of the week.

For comparison purposes, Massarotti has his starters up at the Herald. I looked at projections for his but they come in on the low side at 5.4 runs per game.

Cruising the web

Cruising the web while watching the SEC championship game I found this comment at USA today about 2007 rookies:

8. Dustin Pedroia, IF, Red Sox: Depending on Boston's moves the rest of the offseason, Pedroia could end up being the team's second baseman or its shortstop. Second base is more likely, and he'll probably be a steady but not spectacular player with neither exceptional power nor blazing speed.

Pretty much sums up my feelings about Pedroia. I really think he will be a steady player but not an outstanding player.

A pretty good recap of Japanese players at USA today also.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Well, it is time for the week 13 NFL picks. Last week I went 8 and 8 again, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 13 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Cincinnati	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore	Cincinnati	Cin 13 - Bal 7
Indianapolis	- 7 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Ind 17 - Ten 20
St. Louis	- 6 1/2	Arizona	St. Louis	Arizona	STL 20 - Az 34
Chicago	- 9 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota	Chi 23 - Min 13
Green Bay	- 1 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Green Bay	GB 10 - NY 38
New Orleans	- 7 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	New Orleans	NO 34 - SF 10
San Diego	- 6 1/2	Buffalo	San Diego	San Diego	SD 24 - Buf 21
Kansas City	- 5 1/2	Cleveland	Kansas City	Cleveland	KC 28 - Cle 31
Washington	- 1 1/2	Atlanta	Atlanta	Washington	Was 14 - Atl 24
New England	- 13 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	NE 28 - Det 21
Miami	- 1 1/2	Jacksonville	Miami	Miami	Mia 10 - Jac 24
Oakland	- 3 1/2	Houston	Houston	Oakland	Oak 14 - Hou 23
Pittsburgh	- 8 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh	Pit 20 - TB 3
Dallas	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 23 - NY 20
Denver	- 3 1/2	Seattle	Seattle	Denver	Den 20 - Sea 23
Carolina	- 3 1/2	Philadelphia	Carolina	Carolina	Car 24 - Phi 27

Indianapolis at Tennessee - Vince Young baby, Vince Young. I expect the colts to win but it will be closer than a touchdown. Madden 07 predicts 15 - 10 colts.

St. Louis vs Arizona - St. Louis has lost 6 in a row but the Cardinals are a quick fix, this is a game that should not be even close. Madden 07 predicts 28 - 31 Arizona.

Chicago vs Minnesota - Chicago is not playing very well right now, of course the Vikings aren't either. Look for the Bears defense to win this game 21 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 20 Bears.

Green Bay vs NY Jets - Favre is not playing well, Jets defense has been good. Look for NY to win 17 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 31 - 23 Packers.

New Orleans vs San Francisico - New Orleans got back on the winning track last week and will make it 2 in a row by winning 24 - 21. Madden 07 predicts 16 - 6 Saints.

San Diego at Buffalo - I think San Diego is the best team in the AFC right now while Buffalo is up and down, San Diego wins 28 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 33 - 14 Chargers.

Kansas City at Cleveland - KC is on a roll, Cleveland stinks. KC wins 31 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 27 - 24 Chiefs.

Washington vs Atlanta - After the implosion of Vick last week look for Atlanta to win this 14 - 13. Madden 07 predicts 20 - 17 Washington.

New England vs Detroit - Patriots have improved each week this year but 2 touchdowns is too much to cover. Patriots win 35 - 27. Madden 07 predicts 28 - 21 Patriots.

Miami vs Jacksonville - Wild card play starts early as both teams try to stay in the hunt. 21 - 14 Dolphins. Madden 07 predicts 27 - 17 Miami.

Oakland vs Houston - Texans pick up their 4th win of the year 21 - 18. Madden 07 predicts 22 - 17 Raiders.

Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has been playing better than their record, plus they played on Thanksgiving, which should allow them some healing time. Steelers win 24 - 17. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 6 Steelers.

Dallas at NY Giants - Giants hoping for sweep of the Cowboys but are showing signs of implosion. Cowboys win going away 31 - 21. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 20 Cowboys.

Denver Vs Seattle - I don't care how good their rookie quarterback is, he's still a rookie. Seattle kicks a field goal late to win 21 - 20. Madden 07 predicts 21 - 11 Broncos.

Carolina at Philadelphia - The Panthers are looking to get back on track, Eagles look like a mash unit. Carolina wins this game 28 - 17. Madden 07 predicts 20 - 12 Panthers.

Have lots of family stuff to do today so probably no more posts until tomorrow

SEC football championship game

Arkansas vs Florida, and so far the razorbacks look like crap on offense. Two series with the ball and two 3 and outs. Last time I looked USC was leading UCLA. What difference does that make? Well, if USC loses to the Bruins, then the Gators need to beat my razorbacks badly to make their case for playing Ohio St. in the BCS game. So, go Trojans, Go Arkansas!!!!!

UPDATE: At the half, thanks to a blocked punt the gators lead 17 - 7. USC has lost to UCLA so my worst case scenario has came about. I now need to root for the gators to whip my team by 30 points so that they can play Ohio St. in the championship game. Freaking USC.

Of course if Arkansas had taken care of business last week against LSU then I could be rooting for the Razorbacks to win and make the jump over Michigan to play against the buckeyes.

UPDATE: You have to be kidding me, after taking the lead on an intercepted pass (option toss) and forcing the Gators to use their last Time Out on a 4th and 1 at midfield, the Razorbacks fumble the punt in the end zone. Gators 24 - Arkansas 17 now. Of course this means that Michigan gets its rematch. Argghhhhhhhhh.

UPDATE: A game of streaks, Gators race out to 17 quick points, Razorbacks score 21, Gators score 14. Argghhhhhhhhh.

FINAL UPDATE: Gators win 38 to 28. Will this be enough to put them ahead of Michigan only the BCS knows. Freaking Trojans!!!!!! Of course this loss puts the razorbacks on the outside looking in for the BCS bowls. Not for sure where they will end up, but the Cotton would be my guess.