Red Sox 07 Game 64

 Wednesday, June 13                             Fenway Park  7:05 PM ET
Josh Fogg, RHP (1-5, 5.06)
Rockies (31-33)

       VS

Curt Schilling, RHP (6-2, 3.49)
Red Sox (41-22)

AL East Standings

Team	W	L	GB	L 10	X W	X L
Boston	41	22		5-5	40	23
New York	31	31	9.5	8-2	36	26
Toronto	30	33	11.0	5-5	31	32
Tampa Bay	29	33	11.5	7-3	26	36
Baltimore	29	35	12.5	2-8	32	32

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From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Rockies: Fogg struggled within the strike zone on Thursday, his first start after 15 days on the DL. He threw strikes, but his location within the zone came back to haunt him as the Astros connected for 11 hits in five innings. He struck out four while walking just one, but a tendency to elevate his pitches accounted for five extra-base hits, including three in a row in the three-run third. He said he felt no lingering effects from his groin strain. He threw 102 pitches, his second-highest pitch count of the season.

Red Sox: Coming within one out of throwing his first career no-hitter, Curt Schilling will start on Wednesday for the Red Sox when they host the Rockies in Interleague Play. Schilling surrendered a two-out ninth-inning hit to Shannon Stewart and wound up throwing his third career one-hitter.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
D. Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
K. Youkilis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
D. Ortiz	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667
M. Ramirez	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333
J.D. Drew	18	4	1	0	2	2	4	3	.222
M. Lowell	14	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	.286
J. Varitek	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.333
C. Crisp	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
J. Lugo	17	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	.235
Totals	58	16	3	0	2	5	6	9	.276

The batting numbers are about what you would expect from a team that has only faced this pitcher once. Overall you have to give the Sox an advantage here though as they have faced this pitcher recently (2005), so they have some history against him.

I would not be surprised to see Cora in the line up tonight since he is 5 for 9 against Fogg. Wily Mo might also play since he is 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a walk. Will be interesting to see how Tito plays this out. If Cora is in the line up will he bat lead off? If Wily Mo is in for Coco will he bat eighth?

Historical Pitching line

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Fogg	1	0	0	0	7	8	5	1	0	3	6.43
Schilling	24	11	5	1	169 1/3	192	81	23	34	169	4.31

Historical line is probably not good indicator since Fogg last faced the Sox as a Pirate in 2005. Curt's last start vs the Rockies was at Coors field in 2004 (a brutal loss).

That is a pretty high ERA for Curt against this team. Since it is Colorado I thought that I would look at Curt's success against this team away from Mile High Coors Field (not the official name of the park but you get the idea).

In eleven starts vs this team away from Coors field, he is seven and one with a 2.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02 (1.33 overall). Those are the types of numbers that we like to see Curt throw out there. Those numbers would be lower but Todd Helton kills Curt. In 52 at bats Helton has 18 hits with 6 doubles and 5 home runs and 10 K's. With runners on I expect Curt to pitch very, very carefully to Helton.

Fogg has bounced around so I looked at his Colorado numbers. As a Rocky he has started 41 games with 5.38 era in 230 2/3 innings. His home / away splits are typical of a Rockies pitcher. At Coors field he has started 20 games going 6 and 7 with a 6.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.73. On the road he has started 22 games going 6 and 7 with a 4.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42. Look for the batters to tee up on this guy early and often.

Chow!