NFL 2008 Week 13 Previews

Well we did much better last week as we went 13-3 making us 96-70 for the year. Of course the Turkey Day picks were only 2-1 as once again I missed the Cowboys game. Someday I might actually figure out my boys!!!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week thirteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Tennessee	-11.5	Detroit	Tennessee	Detroit
Dallas	-12.5	Seattle	Seattle	Seattle
Philadelphia	-2.5	Arizona	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Buffalo	-6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Buf 17-12
Baltimore	-7.5	Cincinnati	Baltimore	Cin 20-13
Indianapolis	-4.5	Cleveland	Indianapolis	Ind 28-21
Green Bay	-3.5	Carolina	Green Bay	GB 24-16
Miami	-7.5	St. Louis	Miami	Mia 20-15
Tampa Bay	-4.5	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	TB 24-13
NY Giants	-3.5	Washington	NY Giants	NY 20-9
San Diego	-5.5	Atlanta	Atlanta	SD 27-20
NY Jets	-7.5	Denver	NY Jets	NY 21-16
Oakland	-2.5	Kansas City	Oakland	KC 24-16
NE Patriots	-1.5	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	NE 31-19
Minnesota	-3.5	Chicago	Chicago	Min 21-19
Houston	-3.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 20-15

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5) - Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and is giving up only 11 points per game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Ride the hot horse, so lets pick Tennessee.
❄ - Seattle at Dallas (12.5) - Dallas is only 2-3 ATS at home, and Seattle is 3-2 on the road. That 12.5 spread just bothers me as I saw this as an 8 point win. Of course I haven't done well on the Cowboys games all year so I'm probably wrong again (and if I am, I'll take it). Going with Seattle
❄ - Arizona at Philadelphia (2.5) - Philadelphia is a mess, a QB controversy, a team that is up one week and down the next. It is just hard to figure out the Eagles. It comes down to this, the Cards are a better team but the West Coast Teams are 0-15 this year in the eastern time zone. So, even though Arizona is 4-2 on the road ATS I'm picking the Eagles.
❄ - San Francisco at Buffalo (6.5 ) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS in this situation. Overall These teams are not much better ATS. Just like last week though, I am going against the Bills since they don't cover at home unless the spread is .5. Hey, it worked last week so why change now!
❄ - Baltimore at Cincinnati (-7.5) - Baltimore is 4-2 and Cincy is 2-3 ATS. This is the first time that Baltimore has been a favorite on the road. That is just amazing, you would think that they would have been favored before this. Earlier this week I said that it should be a 5.5 spread for Baltimore, so this has became a coin flip in my mind. I think I will go with Baltimore just because they are the better team.
❄ - Indianapolis at Cleveland (-4.5 ) - I just don't see how Indianapolis is this high of a favorite. Furthermore, even though the Colts are 4-2 ATS on the road they have yet to exceed that 4.5 on the road. This spread is too high and I'm going with the Browns to cover and the Colts to win.
❄ - Carolina at Green Bay (3.5) - Carolina is 2-3 and Green Bay is 3-2 ATS. I had this as a 7.5 spread, so lets go with the Packers.
❄ - Miami at St. Louis (-8.5) - Miami has been good on the road ATS (3-1) this year. Since this is 1.0 less than the spread I picked and since St. Louis sucks at home ATS (1-4), I see no reason not to pick the Dolphins.
❄ - New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4.5) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 at home ATS, enough said, Tampa Bay gets my pick.
❄ - NY Giants at Washington (-3.5) - Giants are 4-1 on the road ATS and Washington is 2-4 ATS at home. Giants it is!
❄ - Atlanta at San Diego (5.5) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS but the Falcons are actually playing better and I think the Chargers are almost at the playing out the string period of the season. Take Atlanta and take the points.
❄ - Pittsburgh at New England (1.5) - Bulletin board material not withstanding, how does a team with a better record, a better defense and better special teams end up as the Underdog? Steelers all the way!
❄ - Denver at NY Jets (7.5) - Jets are 3-2 and the Broncos are 3-2 ATS. Jets are a better team and this spread should be higher. J-E-T-S, as Favre goes crazy and throws 4 tds.
❄ - Kansas City at Oakland (2.5) - I thought that this was a pick em game, but after thinking about this game I think that Oakland is just the better team (KC might be even worse than Detroit).
❄ - Chicago at Minnesota (3.5) - Chicago is the underdog? No, in my book they should have been the favorite, going with the Bears.
❄ - Jacksonville at Houston (3.5) - Both teams do better on the road. How is Houston the Favorite? Take the points and take the Jags.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 13 Thursday Games - Turkey Day

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Go Cowboys!!! Say a prayer for those in uniform and give thanks for living in the shining city on the hill nation of nations. Now here are My Thanksgiving Football picks!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for Thanksgiving in this week thirteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Tennessee	-11.5	Detroit	Tennessee	Ten - 20-16
Dallas	-12.5	Seattle	Seattle	Dal - 24-17
Philadelphia	-2.5	Arizona	Philadelphia	Phi - 27-17

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5) - Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and is giving up only 11 points per game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Ride the hot horse, so lets pick Tennessee.

♊ - Seattle at Dallas (12.5) - Dallas is only 2-3 ATS at home, and Seattle is 3-2 on the road. That 12.5 spread just bothers me as I saw this as an 8 point win. Of course I haven't done well on the Cowboys games all year so I'm probably wrong again (and if I am, I'll take it). Going with Seattle

♊ - Arizona at Philadelphia (2.5) - Philadelphia is a mess, a QB controversy, a team that is up one week and down the next. It is just hard to figure out the Eagles. It comes down to this, the Cards are a better team but the West Coast Teams are 0-15 this year in the eastern time zone. So, even though Arizona is 4-2 on the road ATS I'm picking the Eagles.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Misc. Post 1

Ok, so I decided to start something new this week, especially with an outstanding week going on the picks (12-3 as we type). Tonight we debut the IF I WAS SETTING SPREADS posts. The following is what I think should be the Favorite and the Spreads for week thirteen of the 2008 NFL season. Enjoy!!!

Projected Spread for Week 13 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Fav Rec*	Und Rec*
Tennesse	-15.5	Detroit	4-1	0-5
Dallas	-8.5	Seattle	2-3	3-2
Philadelphia	-4.5	Arizona	3-2	4-2
Buffalo	-6.5	San Francisco	2-3	2-3
Baltimore	-5.5	Cincinnati	5-1	2-3
Indianapolis	-0.5	Cleveland	4-2	2-4
Green Bay	-7.5	Carolina	3-2	2-3
Miami	-8.5	St. Louis	3-1	1-4
Tampa Bay	-9.5	New Orleans	4-1	2-3
NY Giants	-2.5	Washington	4-1	2-4
San Diego	-4.5	Atlanta	2-3	2-3
Pittsburgh	-1.5	NE Patriots	4-1	2-4
NY Jets	-8.5	Denver	3-2	3-2
Oakland	Pick em	Kansas City	1-4	3-2
Chicago	-0.5	Minnesota	4-2	2-5
Jacksonville	-1.5	Houston	3-2	1-4

*These are the records for the teams against the spread in their future situation, either at home or on the road.
Will take a look tomorrow when the actual spreads comeout!!!

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 12 Preview

Well we did much better last week as we went 10-6 making us 93-67 for the year. Off to a bad start with Pittsburgh scoring late to cover and then intercepting the Bengals at the goal line to ensure the spread. Looking to do even better this week. (go Cowboys!!!)

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week twelve of the 2008 season.

Week 12 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Pitt - 28-9
Atlanta	-1.5	Carolina	Atlanta	Car - 27-24
Cleveland	-3.5	Houston	Houston	Hou 19-14
Dallas	-10.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Dal 16-10
Tampa Bay	-8.5	Detroit	Tampa Bay	TB - 24-23
Tennessee	-5.5	NY Jets	NY Jets	TN - 21-20
Buffalo	-3.5	Kansas City	Buffalo	KC - 27-21
Chicago	-7.5	St. Louis	Chicago	Chi - 24-17
Miami	-1.5	NE Patriots	NE Patriots	NE - 21-17
Jacksonville	-2.5	Minnesota	Minnesota	Jax - 27-21
Baltimore	-1.5	Philadelphia	Baltimore	Phi - 20-13
Denver	-9.5	Oakland	Oakland	Den - 27-15
NY Giants	-3.5	Arizona	Arizona	NY - 26-14
Washington	-3.5	Seattle	Washington	Was - 17-13
San Diego	-2.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	SD - 20-15
New Orleans	-2.5	Green Bay	New Orleans	GB -27-14

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (10.5) - Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS on the road (4-5 overall). The two games that Cincinnati coverd on the road, both had double digit spreads. My second reason for picking Cincinnati, the waxing that Pittsburgh laid on the Bengals earlier this year. (ok, so i was wrong, but remember Cincy was intercepted at the goal line with 27 seconds left).
♊ - Carolina at Atlanta (1.5) - Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home, yes I know that loss was last week, but I think I will stick with the Falcons at home.
♊ - Houston at Cleveland (3.5) - Cleveland has yet to cover at home as the favorite, Houston though is 2-3 on the road. Go with Houston.
♊ - San Francisco at Dallas (10.5) - San Francisco sucks but its a 10.5 spread, Dallas wins by 7
♊ - Tampa Bay at Detroit (-8.5) - Detroit sucks, Tampa Bay is no great shakes on the road but did I mention that the Lions suck?
♊ - NY Jets at Tennessee (5.5) - Game of the week by far but this type of Game is why Favre was brought to NY. Look for a scoring machine by both teams but I just don't think that Tennessee will win by more than a field goal.
♊ - Buffalo at Kansas City (-3.5) - Buffalo doesn't do well with spreads over .5 but this is KC they are playing. Look for Buffalo to win by 10.
♊ - Chicago at St. Louis (-7.5) - St. Louis has played better lately but they suck at home ATS (1-3).
♊ - NE Patriots at Miami (1.5) - Miami killed the Patriots earlier this year, but this is a different Patriot team now and I expect payback in a big way.
♊ - Minnesota at Jacksonville (2.5) - Jacksonville may be the most over rated team this year and they have not played well at home. Neither team excites me but at least Minnesota has covered on the road this year.
♊ - Philadelphia at Baltimore (1.5) - The Eagles may be the most up and down team this year. Baltimore is 4-0 at home ATS.
♊ - Oakland at Denver (9.5) - Old time rivals and 9.5 spread. Going with the 3-2 ATS Raiders over the 1-4 Broncos.
♊ - NY Giants at Arizona (-3.5) - Identical images as both teams are 3-1 ATS in this situation but I just think the Giants are the better team.
♊ - Washington at Seattle (-3.5) - Going with the Washington Redskins and their 3-1 ATS on the road.
♊ - Indianapolis at San Diego (2.5) - San Diego is at home after traveling to Pittsburgh and losing a 1 point heartbreaker. Norv Turner strikes again and the Colts pull the upset.
♊ - Green Bay at New Orleans (2.5) - Another game with similar ATS but New Orleans is winning by 10 at home, Drew Brees leads a team to a late score covering the spread.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 12 Thursday Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on my pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for week twelves Thursday night game of the 2008 season.

Week 12 Thursday Nights Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Pitt - 28-9

Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS on the road (4-5 overall). The two games that Cincinnati coverd on the road, both had double digit spreads. My second reason for picking Cincinnati, the waxing that Pittsburgh laid on the Bengals earlier this year.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 11 Preview

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week eleven of the 2008 season.

Week 11 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
NE Patriots	-3.5	NY Jets	NY Jets	NE Patriots
Atlanta	-5.5	Denver	Atlanta	Denver
Philadelphia	-9.5	Cincinatti	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Green Bay	-5.5	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago
Indianapolis	-8.5	Houston	Houston	Indianapolis
New Orleans	-4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	New Orleans
Miami	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland
NY Giants	-6.5	Baltimore	Baltimore	Baltimore
Tampa Bay	-3.5	Minnesota	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Carolina	-14.5	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit
Tennessee	-2.5	Jacksonville	Tennessee	Jacksonville
San Francisco	-3.5	St. Louis	San Francisco	San Francisco
Arizona	-3.5	Seattle	Arizona	Seattle
Pittsburgh	-4.5	San Diego	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	-1.5	Washington	Washington	Dallas
Buffalo	-4.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland

Ok, so we had another mediocre record last week. Needless to say when the last four weeks are only 2 games over .500, which is not good prognostication. Something must change.

Well, must is probably not a good word to be using, ok, it is a lousy word. How about we try something different this time?

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread APG - Average Points per Game)

♊ - NY Jets at NE Patriots - This is a tough one for me as the Jets are 5-4 versus the spread and so are the Patriots. If you looked solely on the ATS this would be a draw. I'm going with the Jets to cover based on their 22 points a game on the road versus the Patriots 23 points a game at home this year.
♊ - Denver at Atlanta - not even a close call here, Atlanta is 6-4 ATS, 4-0 at home while Denver is 3-6, 2-2 on the road. Also the 32 apg versus the 25 apg doesn't hurt in my speculation.
♊ - Philadelphia at Cincinnati - Philadelphia wins all battles but I worry about that 9.5 spread. Philly wins by an average of 6.25 points on the road and Cincinnati loses by over 12 points a game at home.
♊ - Chicago at Green Bay - Chicago 3-1 ATS on the road and Green Bay is only 2-2. Average score for Chicago on the road 25 points and Green Bay only averages 25 points at home. Something has to give, going to go with their records against the spread - Chicago.
♊ - Houston at Indianapolis - How weird is Indianapolis's season. Four games at home this year and 1-3 ATS. Houston is just as bad on the road ATS so it is a toss up. Which means I am going to go with Houston to cover this game based on Indy's 3.25 APG margin at home.
♊ - New Orleans at Kansas City - Two teams with similar records ATS. However, both teams do better if you flip the home / away scenario. In this case though both teams have losing APG in this match up. Gut says New Orleans wins but Kansas City covers.
♊ - Oakland at Miami - Miami is 0-2 ATS as home favorites. Oakland is 2-2 as road underdogs ATS. The only thing that concerns me about picking Oakland, when they lose on the road, they lose big.
♊ - Baltimore at NY Giants - Both teams are great ATS but Baltimore is 5-0 as road underdogs ATS. Slight edge and also, they have been hot for me, taking the Ravens here.
♊ - Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has been unstoppable at home this year. Ride that baby hard, and going with the Bucs.
♊ - Detroit at Carolina - 14.5 points? I know that Detroit is bad but 14.5 points? Both of these teams have done well in this scenario but that 14.5 points scares the beejebus out of me, so we'll pick the horrible Lions to stay with in two touchdowns.
♊ - Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS at home while Tennessee is 3-1 ATS on the road. Enough said.
♊ - St. Louis at San Francisco - Logically one would say that St. Louis would have the edge here since it has performed better ATS. I am not going to be logical. San Francisco and St. Louis have played three common opponents, San Francisco has done better and is playing at home. San Francisco is my pick this week.
♊ - Arizona at Seattle - Another tough one for me, I have yet to pick correctly on any of Seattle's home games this year. 5th time the charm? I am going with Arizona's record ATS on the Road.
♊ - San Diego at Pittsburgh - San Diego is 1-4 ATS on the road; Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS at home. No common opponents in similar situations so, flip a coin? Nope, we are going with San Diego since the Steelers seem to be all beat up.
♊ - Dallas at Washington - Just shoot me now. Put me out of my misery, Dallas is 3-6 versus the spread Washington is 5-4. Common opponents, Dallas loses that argument, my heart says Dallas, and my head says Washington.
♊ - Cleveland at Buffalo - While I think Buffalo is the better team, Cleveland is 3-1 ATS on the road. Buffalo 2-2 ATS at home, but both of those covers were with .5 spreads. Buffalo wins a close one but Cleveland covers.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 11 Thursday Game

Ok, here is the deal. We went 8-6 last week so made up some ground but the Thursday night pick well it sucked. Looking to do better this time around as we cast our eyes north to the wet, drizzly, utterly yucky weather in the Boston area. In other words, this is Favre Weather!!!

Remember - this picks is only for entertainment purposes and you follow / bet on my picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now off to the picks for the Thursday night game of week eleven of the 2008 season.

Week 11 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
NE Patriots	-3.5	NY Jets	NY Jets

♊ - NY Jets at NE Patriots - This is a tough one for me as the Jets are 5-4 versus the spread and so are the Patriots. If you looked solely on the ATS this would be a draw. I'm going with the Jets to cover based on their 22 points a game on the road versus the Patriots 23 points a game at home this year.

NFL 2008 Week 10 Preview

Ok, so Thursday night I blew it. Ugh, what can I say I am just barely hanging on with a seasonal record of 75-56. Still in the black but we need to do better, well better than last weeks 6-8 record anyway.

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you follow / bet on these from my picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now off to the picks for week ten of the 2008 season.

Week 10 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Cleveland	-3.5	Denver	Cleveland	Den 28-26
Atlanta	-.5	New Orleans	Atlanta	NO 20-17
Tennessee	-3.0	Chicago	Tennessee	Tenn. 21-13
Jacksonville	-6.5	Detroit	Jacksonville	Jax 30-17
Miami	-9.5	Seattle	Miami	Mia 24-14
Minnesota	-2.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 20-17
NE Patriots	-3.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	NE 38-27
NY Jets	-8.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	NY 38-28
Houston	-1.5	Baltimore	Baltimore	Hou 22-14
Carolina	-9.5	Oakland	Carolina	Car 24-16
Pittsburgh	-3.5	Indianapolis	Pittsburgh	Pit 21-17
San Diego	-15.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	SD 27-10
Philadelphia	-2.5	NY Giants	Philadelphia	NY 31-24
Arizona	-9.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	SF 30-20

Games to watch Buffalo at NE, Carolina at Oakland, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, Kansas City at San Diego, and NY Giants at Philadelphia. (1-5)

1. Buffalo has a better record against the spread (ATS) but NE is coached by a master, they are at home, and its a division game. I have probably changed my pick on this game half a dozen times.
2. It should be obvious that Carolina is the better team but that -9.5 really, really worries me.
3. Indy in this situation is actually better ATS but Pittsburgh has looked really good lately.
4. San Diego has been under performing all year but that -15.5 worries me.
5. Philly at home is averaging double digit above their oppo's. Giants ar good though so will be keeping sharp objects in the drawer while watching this game.
   
   ♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.
   
   
   

NFL - 2008 Week 10 Thursday Night Game

Ok, went 6-8 last week, but tonight it is the debut of Brady Quinn for the Browns and Denver comes knocking. Madden 09 has this being a close Bronco win (28-26), I don't see it though. Looking for Cleveland to cover the spread tonight. Give the 3 1/2 points!!!

NFL 2008 Week 9 Previews

Last week 8-6, which brings the season total to 69-47. Looking good so far!!!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you follow / bet on these from my picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now off to the picks for week nine of the 2008 season.

Week 9 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Buffalo	-5.5	NY Jets	NY Jets	Jets 28-24
Chicago	-12.5	Detroit	Chicago	Chi 35-16
Jacksonville	-7.5	Cincinatti	Jacksonville	Jax 20-13
Cleveland	-1.5	Baltimore	Baltimore	Bal 22-14
Arizona	-2.5	St. Louis	Arizona	STL 31-21
Minnesota	-4.5	Houston	Houston	Min 31-19
Tennessee	-6.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 21-14
Tampa Bay	-8.5	Kansas City	Tampa Bay	TB 24-17
Denver	-3.5	Miami	Denver	Den 17-13
NY Giants	-7.5	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 28-24
Philadelphia	-6.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Phi 31-27
Atlanta	-2.5	Oakland	Oakland	ATL 21-16
Indianapolis	-5.5	NE Patriots	NE Patriots	NE 31-23
Washington	-2.5	Pittsburgh	Washington	Pitt 24-13

Looking for better results this time around but not expecting it. Possible upsets, Oakand, Dallas and Cincinatti!

Update: whoops, typed Jacksonville in wrong column. I had picked Jacksonville to cover versus Cincy, yeah I know pretty stupid when you see that I had Cincy as a possible upset.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.