Saturday, November 15, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 11 Preview

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week eleven of the 2008 season.

Week 11 Games
FavoriteSpread.UnderdogPickMadden 09
NE Patriots-3.5NY JetsNY JetsNE Patriots
Green Bay-5.5ChicagoChicagoChicago
New Orleans-4.5Kansas CityKansas CityNew Orleans
NY Giants-6.5BaltimoreBaltimoreBaltimore
Tampa Bay-3.5MinnesotaTampa BayTampa Bay
San Francisco-3.5St. LouisSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Pittsburgh-4.5San DiegoSan DiegoSan Diego

Ok, so we had another mediocre record last week. Needless to say when the last four weeks are only 2 games over .500, which is not good prognostication. Something must change.

Well, must is probably not a good word to be using, ok, it is a lousy word. How about we try something different this time?

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread APG - Average Points per Game)

♊ - NY Jets at NE Patriots - This is a tough one for me as the Jets are 5-4 versus the spread and so are the Patriots. If you looked solely on the ATS this would be a draw. I'm going with the Jets to cover based on their 22 points a game on the road versus the Patriots 23 points a game at home this year.
♊ - Denver at Atlanta - not even a close call here, Atlanta is 6-4 ATS, 4-0 at home while Denver is 3-6, 2-2 on the road. Also the 32 apg versus the 25 apg doesn't hurt in my speculation.
♊ - Philadelphia at Cincinnati - Philadelphia wins all battles but I worry about that 9.5 spread. Philly wins by an average of 6.25 points on the road and Cincinnati loses by over 12 points a game at home.
♊ - Chicago at Green Bay - Chicago 3-1 ATS on the road and Green Bay is only 2-2. Average score for Chicago on the road 25 points and Green Bay only averages 25 points at home. Something has to give, going to go with their records against the spread - Chicago.
♊ - Houston at Indianapolis - How weird is Indianapolis's season. Four games at home this year and 1-3 ATS. Houston is just as bad on the road ATS so it is a toss up. Which means I am going to go with Houston to cover this game based on Indy's 3.25 APG margin at home.
♊ - New Orleans at Kansas City - Two teams with similar records ATS. However, both teams do better if you flip the home / away scenario. In this case though both teams have losing APG in this match up. Gut says New Orleans wins but Kansas City covers.
♊ - Oakland at Miami - Miami is 0-2 ATS as home favorites. Oakland is 2-2 as road underdogs ATS. The only thing that concerns me about picking Oakland, when they lose on the road, they lose big.
♊ - Baltimore at NY Giants - Both teams are great ATS but Baltimore is 5-0 as road underdogs ATS. Slight edge and also, they have been hot for me, taking the Ravens here.
♊ - Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has been unstoppable at home this year. Ride that baby hard, and going with the Bucs.
♊ - Detroit at Carolina - 14.5 points? I know that Detroit is bad but 14.5 points? Both of these teams have done well in this scenario but that 14.5 points scares the beejebus out of me, so we'll pick the horrible Lions to stay with in two touchdowns.
♊ - Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS at home while Tennessee is 3-1 ATS on the road. Enough said.
♊ - St. Louis at San Francisco - Logically one would say that St. Louis would have the edge here since it has performed better ATS. I am not going to be logical. San Francisco and St. Louis have played three common opponents, San Francisco has done better and is playing at home. San Francisco is my pick this week.
♊ - Arizona at Seattle - Another tough one for me, I have yet to pick correctly on any of Seattle's home games this year. 5th time the charm? I am going with Arizona's record ATS on the Road.
♊ - San Diego at Pittsburgh - San Diego is 1-4 ATS on the road; Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS at home. No common opponents in similar situations so, flip a coin? Nope, we are going with San Diego since the Steelers seem to be all beat up.
♊ - Dallas at Washington - Just shoot me now. Put me out of my misery, Dallas is 3-6 versus the spread Washington is 5-4. Common opponents, Dallas loses that argument, my heart says Dallas, and my head says Washington.
♊ - Cleveland at Buffalo - While I think Buffalo is the better team, Cleveland is 3-1 ATS on the road. Buffalo 2-2 ATS at home, but both of those covers were with .5 spreads. Buffalo wins a close one but Cleveland covers.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

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