Sunday, November 30, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 13 Previews

Well we did much better last week as we went 13-3 making us 96-70 for the year. Of course the Turkey Day picks were only 2-1 as once again I missed the Cowboys game. Someday I might actually figure out my boys!!!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week thirteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Games
FavoriteSpread.UnderdogPickMadden 09
Tennessee -11.5Detroit TennesseeDetroit
Dallas-12.5 Seattle SeattleSeattle
Philadelphia -2.5 Arizona PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia
Buffalo-6.5San FranciscoSan FranciscoBuf 17-12
Baltimore-7.5CincinnatiBaltimoreCin 20-13
Indianapolis-4.5ClevelandIndianapolisInd 28-21
Green Bay-3.5CarolinaGreen BayGB 24-16
Miami-7.5St. LouisMiamiMia 20-15
Tampa Bay-4.5New OrleansTampa BayTB 24-13
NY Giants-3.5WashingtonNY GiantsNY 20-9
San Diego-5.5AtlantaAtlantaSD 27-20
NY Jets-7.5DenverNY JetsNY 21-16
Oakland-2.5Kansas CityOaklandKC 24-16
NE Patriots-1.5PittsburghPittsburghNE 31-19
Minnesota-3.5ChicagoChicagoMin 21-19
Houston-3.5JacksonvilleJacksonvilleJax 20-15

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5) - Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and is giving up only 11 points per game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Ride the hot horse, so lets pick Tennessee.
❄ - Seattle at Dallas (12.5) - Dallas is only 2-3 ATS at home, and Seattle is 3-2 on the road. That 12.5 spread just bothers me as I saw this as an 8 point win. Of course I haven't done well on the Cowboys games all year so I'm probably wrong again (and if I am, I'll take it). Going with Seattle
❄ - Arizona at Philadelphia (2.5) - Philadelphia is a mess, a QB controversy, a team that is up one week and down the next. It is just hard to figure out the Eagles. It comes down to this, the Cards are a better team but the West Coast Teams are 0-15 this year in the eastern time zone. So, even though Arizona is 4-2 on the road ATS I'm picking the Eagles.
❄ - San Francisco at Buffalo (6.5 ) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS in this situation. Overall These teams are not much better ATS. Just like last week though, I am going against the Bills since they don't cover at home unless the spread is .5. Hey, it worked last week so why change now!
❄ - Baltimore at Cincinnati (-7.5) - Baltimore is 4-2 and Cincy is 2-3 ATS. This is the first time that Baltimore has been a favorite on the road. That is just amazing, you would think that they would have been favored before this. Earlier this week I said that it should be a 5.5 spread for Baltimore, so this has became a coin flip in my mind. I think I will go with Baltimore just because they are the better team.
❄ - Indianapolis at Cleveland (-4.5 ) - I just don't see how Indianapolis is this high of a favorite. Furthermore, even though the Colts are 4-2 ATS on the road they have yet to exceed that 4.5 on the road. This spread is too high and I'm going with the Browns to cover and the Colts to win.
❄ - Carolina at Green Bay (3.5) - Carolina is 2-3 and Green Bay is 3-2 ATS. I had this as a 7.5 spread, so lets go with the Packers.
❄ - Miami at St. Louis (-8.5) - Miami has been good on the road ATS (3-1) this year. Since this is 1.0 less than the spread I picked and since St. Louis sucks at home ATS (1-4), I see no reason not to pick the Dolphins.
❄ - New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4.5) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 at home ATS, enough said, Tampa Bay gets my pick.
❄ - NY Giants at Washington (-3.5) - Giants are 4-1 on the road ATS and Washington is 2-4 ATS at home. Giants it is!
❄ - Atlanta at San Diego (5.5) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS but the Falcons are actually playing better and I think the Chargers are almost at the playing out the string period of the season. Take Atlanta and take the points.
❄ - Pittsburgh at New England (1.5) - Bulletin board material not withstanding, how does a team with a better record, a better defense and better special teams end up as the Underdog? Steelers all the way!
❄ - Denver at NY Jets (7.5) - Jets are 3-2 and the Broncos are 3-2 ATS. Jets are a better team and this spread should be higher. J-E-T-S, as Favre goes crazy and throws 4 tds.
❄ - Kansas City at Oakland (2.5) - I thought that this was a pick em game, but after thinking about this game I think that Oakland is just the better team (KC might be even worse than Detroit).
❄ - Chicago at Minnesota (3.5) - Chicago is the underdog? No, in my book they should have been the favorite, going with the Bears.
❄ - Jacksonville at Houston (3.5) - Both teams do better on the road. How is Houston the Favorite? Take the points and take the Jags.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

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