Probable runs per game

Well I visited the probable line up runs produced page over at basball musings again today since it looks like a year without Manny next year. The line up I used was the following:

1. Lugo SS
2. Pedroia 2b
3. Ortiz DH
4. Youkilis 1b
5. Pena CF
6. Drew RF
7. Lowell 3b
8. Varitek C
9. Crisp LF

Surprisingly the average only dropped from 5.8 to a 5.0 run per game. 5 runs per game would be 810 runs per year. That would be middle of the pack last year but only 10 below last years output for this team. I will have to think about this, but I truly believe that the loss of Manny would be one of those classic additions by subtraction situations.

I think I could like this team next year if they are able to solve the bullpen and sign D-K.

BCS Poll out week 13

Well the latest BCS poll is out, no real surprises that I can see but here is the top ten places:

1. Ohio St.
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Louisville
7. Boise St.
8. Notre Dame
9. Arkansas
10. Auburn

Of Course Louisville must be just kicking itself about losing that game to Rutgers. Without that loss it is concievable that they would be in 3rd place.

How deep is the Big 10 and the SEC? According to the computers SEC wins outright as 4 of the 12 teams in the SEC are in the top 10 and 5 teams in the top 15, compared to 2 of 11 being in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15 spots.

As for my personal top 10:

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Louisville
8. California
9. Tennessee
10. Auburn

No way is Notre Dame in the same class as the SEC teams. Remember if not for a Michigan State meltdown they would have 3 losses and 3 wins against the service acadamies really hurts their strength of schedule claims. Meanwhile, Arkansas beat Auburn who beat Florida, which beat LSU who beat Tennessee etc. If you look at those 5 teams all but two of their losses came against the other 4 teams.

NFL week 12 picks

Week 12 in the NFL is here - here are the picks as usual in all their imfamous glory (hey, when you are less than .500 you can't be famous).

Update: So far 6 and 5 for the day with the Colts winning by 20. Need the colts and Monday night to break even for the week.

NFL Week 12

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Miami	- 2 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	Mia 27 - Det 10
Dallas	- 10 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Dal 38 - TB 10
Denver	- 1 1/2	Kansas City	Denver	Kansas City	Den 10 - KC 19
St. Louis	- 5 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	St. Louis	STL 20 - SF 17
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	Arizona	Minnesota	Arizona	Min 31 - AZ 26
Carolina	- 4 1/2	Washington	Carolina	Carolina	Car 13 - Was 17
Cincinnati	- 3 1/2	Cleveland	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cin 30 - Cle 0
NY Jets	- 5 1/2	Houston	NY Jets	NY Jets	NY J 25 - Hou 11
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	Buffalo	Jacksonville	Buffalo	Jac 24 - Buf 27
Atlanta	- 3 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	Atlanta	Atl 13 - NO 31
Baltimore	- 2 1/2	Pittsburgh	Baltimore	Baltimore	Bal 27 - Pit 0
San Diego	- 13 1/2	Oakland	San Diego	San Diego	SD 21 - Oak 14
NY Giants	- 3 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	NY Giants	NYG 21 - Ten 24
New England	- 3 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago	NE 17 - Chi 13
Indianapolis	- 9 1/2	Philadelphia	Indianapolis	Philadelphia	Ind 45 - Phi 21
Seattle	- 10 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	Seattle	Sea 34 - GB 24

Well after the Thanksgiving day games I already have lost 3 games. Not looking good this week, but if I put on my rose colored glasses I see the possibility of going 13 and 3 for the week, yea right. Oh well, here are my reasons for my picks this week:

St. Louis vs San Francisco - I am trying to understand this game, the Rams are in the middle of a 5 game losing streak but are favored by 5 1/2 points over a 49er team that has won 3 straight. I won’t even consider this an upset when the 49er’s win outright 28 – 24.

Minnesota vs Arizona – Two struggling teams playing each other, with not much to recommend either one over the other team. Sticking with the Vikings who at least cover 50% of the time over a Cardinal team that is horrible on the road, Vikings 21 – Arizona 10.

Carolina at Washington – No late season magic by Gibbs, proves that you can’t go home again. I look for the Skins to continue their slide into oblivion this week with Carolina winning 28 – 13.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – Cincinnati looks to sweep the Browns for the second year in a row. Bengals 35 – Browns 17.

NY Jets vs Houston – The up and down Jets will be up this week and licking their chops at facing an inept Texan team. Jets 31 – Texans 14.

Jacksonville at Buffalo – Both teams are looking to prove themselves. The Jaguars are looking to prove that they deserve a Wild Card berth while the Bills are looking to prove they are a team on the rise. I expect a tight game throughout with the Jags winning 17 – 13.

Atlanta vs New Orleans – This is a game that I keep on going back and forth on, right now I feel like New Orleans will sweep the Falcons. Too close to call in a game that should be close.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh – Hmm, since Belick fired his offensive coordinator the Ravens are like unbeatable. A close game but look for both teams to depend on the running game and defense with the Ravens winning 17 – 14.

San Diego vs Oakland – This is a division rivalry game against a team that is 8 and 2 versus a team that is 2 and 8, perfect upset conditions but I just don’t see that happening. Chargers 30 – Oakland 14.

NY Giants at Tennessee – two teams that seem to be going in different directions. Ever since the Titans switched to Young as their starting QB they have been competitive, meanwhile Eli seems to be regressing in his progress as a top flight QB. Look for Tennessee to pull this game out late 21 – 20.

New England vs Chicago – Patriots are a 3 ½ point favorite? At home? While I expect the Patriots to win, the Bears will keep it close. Patriots 14 – Bears 13.

Indianapolis vs Philadelphia – Another game that I am waffling on, I just don’t trust the Colts all the time against teams they should beat handily (see Indy vs Tenn.). Still, I think the loss of McNabb is just too much for the Eagles to overcome. Colts 35 – Eagles 17.

Seattle vs Green Bay – Only 7 teams have a worse record against the spread than Green Bay, guess which one is the 7th. Yep, that’s right its Seattle. Seahawks 24 – Packers 17.

Houston we have a problem

Four freaking years in a row, four years in a row the Razorbacks have lost to the Tigers (recap). Houston, I like you but you have got to start winning the big ones, instead of losing games like today's. It would be nice if someone explained to me why Dick is starting instead of Mustain. I know that Mustain is a freshman, but 3 for 17 and most of those incompletions weren't even close to being caught.

Next game for the Hogs will be the SEC championship game, which Arkansas will need to win in order to guarantee a BCS game.

College Picks Week 13

Well its coming down to crunch time in the college football season, presently my razorbacks are losing to LSU 17 - 12. Breaking news is that the Miami Hurricanes have fired Larry Corker which shouldn't surprise anybody after the brawl, the arrests, the death of a player and other extra distractions for the Canes this year. Of course going 6 and 6 had a lot to do with it also.

Still here are my college football picks this week:

College Football Week 13

Away	Conf	Home	Pick	Result
Florida	1	Florida St.	Florida	Fla 21 - FSU 14
Louisville	10	Pittsburgh	Louisville	Lou 48 - Pitt 24
Virginia	3	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	Va 0 - VT 17
South Carolina	4	Clemson	Clemson	S.C. 31 - Clem 28
North Carolina	8	Duke	North Carolina	UNC 45 - Duke 44
Mississippi St.	6	Mississippi	Mississippi	Miss St. 17 - Miss. 20
Georgia Tech	7	Georgia	Georgia Tech	GT 12 - Ga15
Arizona St.	5	Arizona	Arizona	Az St. 28 - Az. 14
East Carolina	9	North Carolina St.	East Carolina	E. Car. 21 - N.C. St. 16
Notre Dame	2	USC	USC	ND 24 - USC 44

Have a good day my friends

Turkey day is over

Well, the razorbacks won against S. Illinois in basketball, the Cowboys romped over the Buccaneers and I just watched the Chiefs destroy the Bronco's. Of course, that made me 0 and 3 on todays games. Ugly, Ugly, and Ugly. Well, off to bed, hope you had a good Turkey Day.

Revisting Win Shares

Previously we discussed win budgeting for the Red Sox here, in this post I want to revisit that concept now that we are seeing some movement in the free agent market. I hope that Theo has Loretta in his back pocket, because I don't think that we will be able to sign Lugo (I expect the Mets to sign him and move him to second). I also don't think that Manny will get traded since the teams that should be interested in him are going out of their minds overpaying the Gary Mathews etc.

The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
2b	Loretta	16	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
SS	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	174			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 224, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 260.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

So, what we need assuming we get J.D. Drew are 4 more pitchers and a back up catcher. If we just average 5 w.s. per player the Sox would be at 285 giving us the 95 wins.

Probable Line ups

Looking at probable runs per game at the baseball musings I came up with the following based on what is now looking like a bad off season of signings for the Sox:

Crisp CF
Loretta 2b
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Drew RF
Youkilis 1b
Lowell 3b
Varitek C
Pedroia SS

This line up using the 2006 OBA and Slugging has probable runs per game of 5.81. I could live with that from an offensive point of view.

That Was MMMM MMMM Good

How good is the better half, well, the bird was done just as half time arrived of the Detroit - Miami game. The only thing that would have been better is if the Razorbacks had finished their game in regulation. As it was I had to put off eating for an extra 5 minutes of game time.

As for the Lions game, I told you I should have done a Castanza!

Thanks

Giving thanks to those who serve:

Ground Pounders

The Sea (yea Boy)

Fly Boys

The Few, The Proud

Thanks
And from Australia:

Beccy Cole

Thanksgiving picks

Well, 8 and 8 again last week on the old pigskin picks. Looks like I will end up owing money at the end of the season. Well, what can I say its not like I actually expected to win anything, that said here are my picks for 11/23.

Miami at Detroit -2.5. I look for Detroit to win, of course I should probably pull a Castanza since I don't think I have picked correctly any Detroit game all season. Still, I expect a game like Miami 20 Detroit 21.

Dallas vs Tampa Bay -10.5 Romo leads Cowboys to another victory, still, I have no faith in the Cowboys in covering big spreads, so taking the Bucs expecting a 31 to 24 win.

Denver at KC -1.5, Denver romps going away.

NFL week 11 picks

Update: Dallas wins it late, yea boy, making them 6 and 4 and with the Eagles and Skins losing gained a little bit of breathing room. Now if only the Jints would lose. Also the Cowboys win meant I can go no less than 8 and 8.

Week 11 of the nfl season is here, and its time to make our picks. Are you ready for some football?

NFL Week 11

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
New Orleans	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	New Orleans	Cincinatti	Cin 31 - NO 16
Houston	- 2 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo	Hou 21 - Buf 24
New England	- 5 1/2	Green Bay	New England	Green Bay	NE 35 - GB 0
Kansas City	- 9 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland	KC 17 - Oak 13
Baltimore	- 4 1/2	Atlanta	Atlanta	Baltimore	Bal 24 - Atl 10
Chicago	- 6 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Chicago	Chi 10 - NY J 0
Pittsburgh	- 3 1/2	Cleveland	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pitt 24 - Cle 20
Carolina	- 6 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	St. Louis	Car 15 - STL 0
Philadelphia	- 13 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Phi 13 - Ten 31
Tampa Bay	- 2 1/2	Washington	Washington	Tampa Bay	TB 20 - Was 17
Miami	- 3 1/2	Minnesota	Miami	Miami	Mia 24 - Min 20
Seattle	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco	Sea 14 - SF 20
Arizona	- 2 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	Ariz 17 - Det 10
Indianapolis	- 1 1/2	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas	Ind 14 - Dal 21
Denver	- 2 1/2	San Diego	Denver	Denver	Den 27 - SD 35
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	NY Giants	NY Giants	Jac 26 - NY G 10

More later on why I picked and which dogs win outright.
Update: here we go, my inane reasons for who I picked.

New Orleans vs Cincinnati - New Orleans is at home, a better team and they usually cover the spread. Madden 07 simulation - Cincy 31 and Saints 24.

Houston vs Buffalo - Houston has won their 3 games for this year. Buffalo wins outright in this contest. Madden 07 simulation - Bills 26 - Texans 20.

New England at Green Bay - Patriots are almost unbeatable on the road covering 75 % of the time. Madden 07 simulation Pats 28 - Packers 25.

Kansas City vs Oakland - KC is good but I don't think they are more than a touchdown better than the Raiders. Madden 07 simulation KC 31 - Oakland 24.

Baltimore vs Atlanta - Atlanta has played two horrible games in a row, they won't play 3. Madden 07 simulation Ravens 31 - Falcons 24.

Chicago at NY Jets - Chicago is fairly good but the Jets defense is better than we think, look for Chicago to win by 3. Madden 07 simulation Bears 24 - Jets 13.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Steelers on a mini roll, Browns absolutely suck this year, look for a blow out by the Steelers. Madden 07 simulation Steelers 37 - Browns 30.

Carolina vs St. Louis - Both teams in a must win situation, Panthers win 31 - 28. Madden 07 simulation Panthers 16 - Rams 10.

Philadelphia vs Tennessee - since the Titans switched to Vince Young at QB all of pretty much all of their games are competitive. Madden 07 simulation Eagles 24 - Titans 13.

Tampa Bay vs Washington - TB is beat up, Redskins benced Brunnel, just too much for Bucs to handle, Redskins by 10. Madden 07 simulation Buccaneers 26 - Redskins 19.

Miami vs Minnesota - ever since the Vikings lost to the Patriots they have went into a second half slide, Miami wins by 10. Madden 07 simulation Dolphins 31 - Vikings 24.

Seattle at San Francisco - Seattle gets everybody back which leads to rust showing, a defensive battle won by Seattle 13 - 10. Madden 07 simulation Seahawks 27 - 49ers 24.

Arizona vs Detroit - Arizona is who we thought they were, a team led by a rookie QB, no defense, bad coaching etc. Detroit pulls the upset 14 - 13. Madden 07 simulation Lions 31 - Cardinals 19.

Indianapolis at Dallas - Colts suck against the run, the Cowboys are giving up too many big passing plays, logically you would say its a shoot out. Look for Parcells to play the Giants vs Bills super bowl plan, pound, pound, pound the run up the middle and win the possesion game. Cowboys win outright 21 - 17. Madden 07 simulation Cowboys 27 - Colts 24.

Denver vs San Diego - Shottenheimer is 3 and 13 and Denver, need I say more? Broncos win on a late field goal 24 to 21. Madden 07 simulation Broncos 27 - Chargers 24.

Jacksonville vs NY Giants - Jaguars are desperate, Giants are beaten up, both teams play close to the vest with the Jags winning 17 to 14. Madden 07 simulation Giants 20 - Jags 16.

See you later my friends.

College football week 12 recap

Was able to watch the entire Ohio State - Michigan game, some quick thoughts:

1. After Ohio State scored their first 3 touchdowns I thought they were never in trouble.
2. Michigan's defense failed to show up and play
3. Bo and Woody would have cringed each possession, I can not recall a match up between these two teams that featured the passing game
4. I agree with Flutie - Michigan had their chance and if USC wins out or Florida wins out then it should be one of those two teams to meet OSU in the championship.
   

The best teams in the nation (thank you Cincinnati Bearcats) are as follows:

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. Arkansas
6. Texas
7. Louisville
8. Tennessee
9. LSU
10. California
    

Of course that is just my opinion, but you know what they say!

Michigan at Ohio State

UPDATE:
Game over OSU wins by 4, not the defensive struggle that I thought it would be. We will next see OSU in the BCS championship game. Troy Smith becomes only the second QB from Ohio State to beat Michigan 3 times in his career.

Michigan started the game by scoring a quick touchdown which was quickly followed by OSU taking it to the wolverines for 3 unanswered scores. I thought these were supposed to be two pretty good defensive teams. Not looking that way right now as it's 28 - 14 OSU at the half. Woody must be spinning in his grave watching the buckeyes throwing the ball around like its a hot potato.

Still a pretty good game going on you just have wonder if the Wolverines will be able to make any adjustments at the Half.

College Football picks week 12

Its saturday and that means college football, yea boy!!!! Big game today, you may have heard of it, seems there are two teams that are undefeated and ranked 1 and 2. The winner secures a place in the BCS championship and the loser, well the Rose bowl at worst but maybe a rematch. Could be an interesting couple of weeks.

Week 12 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Michigan State	8	Penn State	Penn State	W
Indiana	7	Purdue	Purdue	W
Illinois	3	Northwestern	Illinois	L
Virginia Tech	4	Wake Forest	Wake Forest	L
Maryland	5	Boston College	Boston College	W
Auburn	9	Alabama	Auburn	W
Washington	6	Washington St.	Washington St.	L
Utah	2	Air Force	Utah	W
California	10	USC	USC	W
Michigan	1	Ohio State	Michigan	L

I really look for the Michigan - Ohio State game to be a nail biter, I think both teams are evenly matched. My prediction is Michigan 21 - OSU 20.

Look for Auburn to seal Shula's firing at the end of the Year. I just don't see the tigers losing 2 in a row. The rest are pretty much in line with the favorites.

Of course there is one other big game today, Arkansas has a chance to clinch their division in the SEC. Go hogs.

Simmons dumps Doc

Read this yesterday and forgot to post about it. Typical Simmons column but the timing as usual meant that of course the Celtics would go out and trash the Pacers. Can you write more of these type of columns with those results please?

Renteria vs Cabrera

WEEI (actually its Glenn "fat b******" Ordway most of the time), has been beating up on Theo the last couple of days. One of the common gripes they have is that Theo totally blew the Renteria signing, he didn't do his homework yada yada yada. Well, I went to the Day by Day database at Baseball Musings and pulled up their career numbers.

There are a couple of things that I remember before the Renteria signing:

1. Cabrera kept on saying that he wanted Renteria money
2. Renteria was the top rated shortstop on the open market
3. The fans wanted Orlando to stay
4. Renteria was the gold glove shortstop of the NL.

So, lets take a look at their numbers when you compare them side by side:

Renteria vs Cabrera 1st 3 years of their careers

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	1996 - 98	.288	381	1565	237	450	57	8	12	114	126	254
Cabrera	1999-2001	.259	378	1430	159	370	89	12	35	190	86	120

Renteria had a BA 20 points higher, scored 1/3 more runs, had 80 more hits and 40 more walks. Cabrera was only better in the power numbers and his strike out rate was lower.

Now lets look at the 5 years immediately before the signing.

Renteria vs Cabrera 2000 - 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	00 - 04	.293	727	2772	405	812	171	7	60	388	255	339
Cabrera	00 - 04	.270	746	2855	344	770	194	13	61	349	207	253

Again we see higher batting average, runs hits, RBI and walks. Cabrera did better on the power numbers (except HR's). The only area that Orlando really beat Edgar was in the strike outs. If I am Theo and I have a player who is demanding Renteria number but isn't putting up Renteria numbers, don't I go for Renteria? Why, settle for second when you can have 1st?

So, so far I haven't seen anything that makes me want Orlando over Renteria. So, let's look at their 2004 numbers, maybe we'll find something there?

Renteria vs Cabrera 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	2004	.287	148	586	84	168	37	0	10	72	39	78
Cabrera	2004	.264	158	618	74	163	38	3	10	62	39	54

Well, no luck there as Edgar has the higher average, more runs, more hits, almost even in doubles, same number of home runs and walks, but has more RBI's. Now if you look at these numbers really hard, it even appears that this is a normal type of year for Renteria.

To sum up my feelings, Theo would have been foolish to have not gone after Edgar. 20 / 20 hindsight showed that Edgar couldn't handle the Boston pressure but you couldn't have been sure of that before hand. So, drop this Renteria crap, Theo made a decision based on good solid reasoning and I am tired of hearing how he screwed up by not going after Orlando.

Nfl week 10 and NCAA week 11 recaps.

So, went 8 and 8 this week in the nfl and 6 and 4 on the college games, not great but did improve my ego. The 8 and 8 also moved me up into the 82 percentile. Obviously, not a lot of people are making money off of their ESPN picks.

NCAA is really starting to get interesting. If the Razorbacks win on saturday they will face Florida in the SEC championship game. Would like to see them settle this saturday so that I don't have to sweat out the LSU game.

Matsuzaka watch is now 2 hours and 45 minutes. tick, tick, tick.

Matsuzaka watch continues

Wish I knew the code for a countdown clock. Any hints out there people? Well, it's just past 23:00 here on the east coast, which means less than 21 hours for the suspense to be over with as far as our favorite Japanese pitcher.

You can always pass the time by looking at the different sides of Mt. Fuji.

Even Madden 07 is confused

Well, after the first 14 games I am 7 and 7, which is a vast improvement over last weeks three wins. Those of you who have been following my meager efforts this year probably noticed that I added the Madden 07 results which I got from ESPN.com. Well, this week he went 7 and 7 also so this game simulation was no better than I was this week.

Of course I will take 7 and 7 since I lost the first 4 games this week. So, bringing out the rose colored glasses I prefer to think that I went 7 and 3 when the going got rough.

Razorbacks move into the top 5

I felt confident that with 4 of the top 10 losing this week that Arkansas would move into the top 8 and I was right. Todays poll have the razorbacks at their highest since 1988 as they jump six spots to number 5, right behind USC. Yeah boy!!!!

NFL week 10

Well through week 9 after winning only 3 games last week my record is 62 and 66. Its funny how I have a losing record but in the Pigskin Pick'em contest at ESPN.com I am in the 76 percentile with 21,839 ahead of me. 8 weeks where I go 10 and 6 or better would probably move me into the 90 percentile.

To the picks:

Week 10 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result	W / L
Minnesota	- 5 1/2	Green Bay	Minnesota	Min 17 - GB 23	L
Baltimore	- 7 1/2	Tennessee	Baltimore	Bal 27 - Tenn 26	L
Jacksonville	- 10 1/2	Houston	Jacksonville	Jax 10 - Hou 13	L
Kansas City	- 1 1/2	Miami	Kansas City	KC 10 - Mia 13	L
New England	- 10 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	NE 14 - NYJ 17	W
San Diego	- 1 1/2	Cincinnati	San Diego	SD 49 - Cin 41	W
Detroit	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Detroit	Det 13 - SF 19	L
Philadelphia	- 6 1/2	Washington	Philadelphia	Phi 27 - Was 3	W
Indianapolis	- 12 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo	Ind 17 - Buf 16	W
Atlanta	- 7 1/2	Cleveland	Atlanta	Atl 13 - Cle 17	L
Denver	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Den 17 - Oak 13	W
Pittsburgh	- 4 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	Pit 38 - NO 31	L
Seattle	- 4 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Sea 24 - STL 22	W
NY Giants	- 2 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	NYG 20 - Chi 20	W
Carolina	- 9 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Monday	Night
Dallas	- 6 1/2	Arizona	Dallas	Dal 27 - Arz 10	W

Minn vs Green Bay - Minnesota at home and Green Bay is struggling. Madden 07 has GB winning outright.

Baltimore at Tennessee - In games Baltimore is favored by 7 or greater the Ravens have covered every time. Madden 07 picks Tenn.

Jacksonville vs Houston - Jacksonville is one of those teams that drives me nuts. Madden 07 - Jacksonville.

Kansas City at Miami - KC is on a roll and playing within itself. Madden 07 - Miami wins outright.

NY Jets at New England - Patriots have not covered a game at home yet. Madden 07 - New England.

San Diego at Cincinnati - Cincinnati is struggling and San Diego plays ball control. Madden 07 - Cincinnati wins.

Detroit vs San Francisco - Detroit is also playing better than expected. 3/4 times they cover at home and San Francisco is horrible. Madden 07 - San Fran covers.

Philadelphia vs Washington - Division rivals and I just don't see the Eagles losing again, in fact I expect a 10 point win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Indianapolis vs Buffalo - Double point spreads Indy struggles, plus their defense is terrible. Another shoot out won by the Colts. Madden 07 - Colts cover easily.

Atlanta vs Cleveland - Atlanta at home favored greater than 7 points has covered every time. Another blow out win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Denver at Oakland - Division rival (hated division rivals), Plummer still struggling. Oakland covers the spread.

Pittsburgh vs New Orleans - how can a 2 and 6 team be favored over the 6 and 2 team. New Orleans wins outright. Madden 07 - 1 point loss by the Saints.

Seattle vs St. Louis - first game was a 3 pointer won by Seahawks. These two teams usually split, look for that to continue. St. Louis outright. Madden 07 - Seahawks cover.

NY Giants vs Chicago - to much yapping this week out of New York. I expect the Bears to come roaring out the gate and win going away. Madden 07 - 3 point win by the Giants.

Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Carolina hasn't covered at home all year and haven't covered when favored over 7. Tampa Bay stays within a touchdown. Madden 07 - Carolina covers easily.

Dallas at Arizona - former rivals, Dallas covers on the road 40 % of the time but Arizona is still in a free fall. Madden 07 - Dallas in a rout.

1 more win needed

Well, Arkansas held on to win 31 to 14. Only 1 more win needed to make the championship game. Game Stats below:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	17	20
Total Yards	268	426
Passing	172	168
Rushing	96	258
Possession	28:05	31:55

Since Louisville, California and Auburn lost earlier, I definetly think this game will put the hogs in the top 8 in the next polls.

Veterans Day

Being a veteran, I would like to say thanks to all those who are serving overseas now and have served in the past. To those on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, keep your wits about you and continue to do what you do with pride and honor. God bless you all.

Arkansas - Tennessee at the Half

Tennessee 7
Arkansas 28

Razorbacks looking sharp but I remember the Tennessee - Georgia game earlier this year where Tennessee looked like a sure loser only to come roaring back after the half to win the game 51 to 33. The Volunteers have an explosive offense that can roll up the points. So, I am not breathing easy yet.

Half Time Stats:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	9	11
Total Yards	121	266
Passing	64	86
Rushing	57	180
Penlties	4 - 20	1 - 15
Possession	14:59	15:01

Pretty much domination up and down the stats. Lets go Hogs.

Beta Blogger

Got tired of seeing the blogger message begging me to switch to Beta. Switched earlier today and as you may have noticed I also changed the lay out of the blog. Am not sure that beta is better, but it seems to be working fairly well. What is nice is the publishing is so much quicker than before.

I also like the labels for different categories. Makes it a lot easier for me to find previous posts for reference reasons. I will have to think about the programming part of the beta, since I had made changes to the template on the old system. It appears that I have to look at the Java programming to also try and get cute with this template.

Initial thoughts? hmmm, will wait and see.

Tennessee at Arkansas

Make no doubt about it, today's game just got a little bit more important for the Hogs. As we speak, Florida is losing to South Carolina and Auburn got destroyed by Georgia.

The Razorbacks need to win 2 of their next 3 games to advance to the SEC championship game against Florida. A win tonight though would probably mean that they would jump up in the polls with losses already this week by #3 Louisville and #5 Auburn (already defeated by Arkansas). If South Carolina was to hold on and beat #4 Florida, then the #11 Razorbacks could leap all the way to 7 in the country.

Update: Florida just moved in front 17 - 16

Update II: Florida holds on for a 17 - 16 win.

Feeling blue?

While waiting for the game to start (t-119 mintes), decided to cruise by Scot Adams Dilbert Blog. It is always good to have a little bit of humor each day, and this is one of those blogs that always brngs a smile to my face. I especially liked his final words on his to tip or not to tip post.

Why can’t I be afraid of something normal, like North Korea?

College Football picks week 11

Well week 11 of the college games is here. Last week was able to go 7 and 3, bringing my yearly total for this contest to 77 and 23.

Time for my picks:

Week 11 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Wisconsin	5	Iowa	Wisconsin	Win
North Carolia State	6	Clemson	Clemson	Win
Minnesota	3	Michigan St.	Minnesota	Win
Georgia	4	Auburn	Auburn	Loss
South Carolina	2	Florida	Florida	Win
Pittsburgh	7	Connecticut	Pittsburgh	Loss (ot)
Nebraska	8	Texas A & M	Texas A & M	Loss
Alabama	9	LSU	LSU	Win
Oregon	10	USC	USC	Win
Tennesse	1	Arkansas	Tennesse	Loss

Should be some good games today, with a heavy impact on BCS matchups, ones to closely watch are the Wisconsin - Iowa, the Tennessee - Arkansas game is usually pretty good and the hogs need to win to continue to have control of their own destiny.

Simmons sums up the Celtics

The closing quote from Simmons latest NBA column:

(That's right: The same guy who once joked that NBA Entertainment should release a "Rick Adelman's Greatest Playoff Collapses" DVD is now pushing for Adelman to coach his favorite team. And you thought Gilbert Arenas and Kobe were the only ones who were crazy.)

sounds about right to me also.

Win Budgeting?

An interesting post about having a team budget their salary around expected wins (h/t baseball musings). Personally, I disagree about his start point for the figures (54 wins, 54 losses and the rest depends on the players), but I like the 2 million per win figure.

Now, if we were to follow the reasoning laid out by U.S.S. Mariner, then a logical process for Theo would be to figure up the teams present win shares, then subtract them from the goal of 95 wins. Using the 2 million per win he could then base his free agent acquisitions etc to build a team. Will have to think about this but I think that Dave is right in his reasoning and this could be an interesting way to follow the trades this year.

Just a real quick look at the present starters, remembering that 95 wins equals a total of 285 win shares:

Pos.	Player	06 WS
1b	Youkilis	22
2b	Loretta	16
3b	Lowell	18
C	Varitek	8
DH	Ortiz	29
LF	Ramirez	29
CF	Crisp	10
RF	Pena	8
SP	Schilling	16
SP	Beckett	12
SP	Wakefield	7

These 12 players total 175 win shares, which would leave them 110 shares short. The question is how good do we expect Papelbon to be as a starter. I would put him in the Beckett category and for rounding sakes will say 10. Wakefield has had 8 shares, 16 shares and 7 shares the last three years. So let us put him at 10 also, this now leaves us 97 short.

Tavarez has averaged 6 the last 3 years, Timlin has averaged 8 in the same time period but 2005 he spent the last 2 months as the closer so lets go with 6 for him in our computations. DeLcarmen had 1 in 05 and 3 in 06. Will he improve? I say yes so let's go for 5. These 3 will leave us 80 short with a total of 16 of our 25 man squad supplying points.

As you can see we can easily reach that win share total of 285 needed for 95 wins without really killing the payroll. From now on, I think that I will use the Win Shares for my basis on approving or hissing future moves made by Theo this year.

All win share information found at The Hardball Times.

college wrap up week 10

Pretty good week on the College front as I went 7 and 3. Best of all though was the game.

NFL 9 - UGLY

Will update throughout the day

Week 9 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result
St. Louis	- 2 1/2	Kansas City	St. Louis	KC 31 - STL 17 (L)
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Miami	Chicago	MIA 31 - Chi 13 (L)
New Orleans	- 1 1/2	Tampa Bay	New Orleans	NO 31 - TB 14 (W)
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jax 37 - Tenn. 7 (L)
Atlanta	- 5 1/2	Detroit	Atlanta	Det 30 - Atl. 14 (L)
Baltimore	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Bal 26 - Cin 20 (L)
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Washington	Dallas	Was 22 - Dal 19 (L)
Buffalo	- 3 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	Buf 24 - GB 10 (L)
NY Giants	- 13 1/2	Houston	NY Giants	NY 14 - Hou 10 (L)
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Minnesota	SF 9 - Min 3 (L)
San Diego	- 12 1/2	Cleveland	San Diego	SD 32 - Cle 25 (L)
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Denver	Denver	Den 31 - Pit 20 (W)
New England	- 2 1/2	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	Ind 27 - NE 20 (W)
Seattle	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Sea 16 - Oak 0 (L)

The best that I can do this week is (at 8:00 EST) 4 and 10. FUGLY

LSU at Tennessee

What a great game between two of the top 25 teams in the country. LSU coming from 3 down to score a TD with 14 secs. left on a 3rd and goal. This came after being down 17 - 7 right after the half. Of, course I had Tennessee winning this game, but I had a low confidence level, so I am not really surprised by the outcome.

Meanwhile 20 minutes away from Razorbacks vs Gamecocks. Go HOGS!!!!!

Nfl Week 9 picks

OMG, able to post my NFL picks on a Saturday. Have made the picks will have more on reasons why later. Right now I am too busy watching the LSU Tennessee game.

Updated: through week 8 am 59 and 55. Very few surprises this week but all reasons stated after the picks.

Week 9 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick
St. Louis	- 2 1/2	Kansas City	St. Louis
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Miami	Chicago
New Orleans	- 1 1/2	Tampa Bay	New Orleans
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Atlanta	- 5 1/2	Detroit	Atlanta
Baltimore	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Washington	Dallas
Buffalo	- 3 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay
NY Giants	- 13 1/2	Houston	NY Giants
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Minnesota
San Diego	- 12 1/2	Cleveland	San Diego
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Denver	Denver
New England	- 2 1/2	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Seattle	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland

Why I picked whom I picked.

St. Louis - covered every home game this year. KC has covered 1 of 3 away.

Chicago - 100 % at home. Miami - has not covered any game

New Orleans - 100 % on the road but Tampa Bay has covered 75% of their home games. I think this is an upset special and have TB winning this one outright.

Jacksonville - 100% at home but Tennessee is 75% on the road. Vince Young has brought a new dimension to the Titans and Jacksonville is up and down this year, I look for this to be a 4-point game in Jacksonville's favor.

Atlanta and Detroit are both 66% against the spread in this situation, but Detroit is just terrible. I want to see the pictures, Millen must have pictures hidden somewhere to be able to keep his job in the motor city.

Baltimore and Cincinnati are also evenly split against the spread (66%) but I just like Cincinnati's offense. Another close game but the Ravens win by 3.

Dallas is 50 % on the road and Washington is 33 % at home. Revenge is the big motivator here and I look for the Cowboys to win going away.

Buffalo is terrible at home (33 %) while Green Bay plays well on the road. Another upset special as I see the Packers winning by a touchdown.

NY Giants over Houston - Houston is terrible, need I say more?

Minnesota is 66 % on the road and San Fran is 50 % at home. Would think this could be a possible upset but I expect Minnesota to come out firing on all cylinders after being embarrassed by the Patriots. Minnesota wins by 2 touchdowns.

San Diego has covered all of its home games; Cleveland is terrible, tough choice here, yeah right. Chargers win in a rout.

How is Pittsburgh the favorite? Upset special, Denver wins by 7.

New England has only covered 33% of their games at home; Indianapolis is at 66 % coverage on the road. There is only one reason that New England is the favorite - Manning is 1 and 6 against the Pats. Make it 2 and 6 as the Colts win by a last second Vinetiari FG.

Seattle and Oakland are both covering 66 % of their games in this situation, Seattle is beat up and beat up and beat up, Oakland is on a two game winning streak that ends in Seattle on a last second FG.

Politics?

In a first for me, I actually posted entries about political mailings that have been received in the last couple of days. Normally, I stick to sports because left, right, moderate, or libertariandemocratic keep your eyes out of my bedroom and your hand out of my wallet (guess which one I am) types can all agree on our love of certain teams that we follow on a day by day basis, however, on the 7th we could see a shift in the politics of this nation not seen seen the 68 election when Nixon promised to end the War.

The Lieberman / Lamont battle is one of the races being watched nationwide and I know some people are wondering how in the heck he is winning this race by a 12 point margin (latest Journal Inquirer poll). Well, the mailings previously posted show why.

The McCain mailing is an outright attempt to get the republicans and conservative independents on his side, while the Daily Kos screw-em one is to get the blue-dog democrats (and there are plenty of them in CT) outraged. The Lamont one reminds me of the posters for Class president in high school.

What is really sad, is the person who clearly knew the issues and really mopped the floor in debates is the one in single digits. The republican party in CT is a complete disgrace that they couldn't get the demo's to split between Lieberman and Lamont while eking out a 1 or 2 point win in this election. What is even sadder is that they shouldn't be so freaking lost, not when 3 of the 5 congressional reps are GOP and while the Govenor is also a GOP.

As for me, I still haven't made up my mind on who I will vote for yet, but the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Lamont

This is the Ned Lamont mailing
Front




Back

Lieberman in 2006 Daily Kos Mailing

This is the Daily Kos Mailing sent by Joe
Cover


Inside Left


Inside Right


Back

Lieberman in 2006 McCain Mailing

Thought I would get a little political this post and show the latest mailings received from joe2006 campaign here in the nutmeg state.

The McCain mailing
Front page of the mailing

Inside Left

Inside Right

Back

College Picks Week 10

Hey look at this, its Friday and I am posting my picks for the 10 games used in the college pick'em at espn.com. Will Wonders never cease? Last week I was horrible, going 4 and 6. Still, after 9 weeks I am 70 and 20 for these games.

Week 10 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER
Virginia	7	Florida State	Florida State
LSU	4	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	8	Oregon	Oregon
Purdue	1	Michigan State	Michigan State
Oklahoma State	10	Texas	Texas
Boston College	3	Wake Forest	Wake Forest
Arkansas	6	South Carolina	Arkansas
UCLA	8	California	California
Virginia Tech	2	Miami (FL)	Miami (FL)
Oklahoma	5	Texas A & M	Oklahoma

As a reminder - CONF is the degree of confidence for that pick with 10 being the most confident. Personally I think that there are some tough picks in this weeks 10 games.

As I made these picks the ones that I could not pick a winner easily were the Tennessee / LSU, Boston College / Wake, Virginia Tech / Miami, Oklahoma / Texas A & M and the Purdue / Michigan St. game. Still, you would have to think that I would do better than last week.

Game I will be watching (do, you really have to ask?), Arkansas vs South Carolina. Sooooiiiiiieeeee, pig, sooie!

Sox shut out of Gold Gloves

WEEI is saying that the Sox will be shut out of the Gold Gloves this year. Un freaking belivable. What is really upsetting is that Jeter beats out Gonzo. Lets go to the tape and compare the two fielding statistics:

Updated 11/3/2006 - changed to a table format

Jeter / Gonzalez Fielding Comparison

Player	G.P.	Inn.	TC	PO	A	E	DP	F %	RF	ZF
Jeter	150	1,292.1	610	214	381	15	81	.975	4.14	.810
Gonzalez	111	966.1	475	163	305	7	68	.985	4.36	.863

Take a good look at the last two columns of these stats, in range factor and zone rating Gonzalez is clearly better than Jeter. If you look at all the other stats and figure out per game it is even more apparent that Gonzalez is better. IN EVERY CATEGORY GONZO BEATS JETER. Un Freaking Belivable.