Revisting Win Shares

Previously we discussed win budgeting for the Red Sox here, in this post I want to revisit that concept now that we are seeing some movement in the free agent market. I hope that Theo has Loretta in his back pocket, because I don't think that we will be able to sign Lugo (I expect the Mets to sign him and move him to second). I also don't think that Manny will get traded since the teams that should be interested in him are going out of their minds overpaying the Gary Mathews etc.

The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
2b	Loretta	16	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
SS	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	174			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 224, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 260.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

So, what we need assuming we get J.D. Drew are 4 more pitchers and a back up catcher. If we just average 5 w.s. per player the Sox would be at 285 giving us the 95 wins.