NFL - Week 7

Well, its Sunday and we know what that means, yes thats right its my weekly boring post on my weekly picks. After week 6 I am 44 and 43 against the spread. My only unders winning outright this week are Carolina and Green Bay. My initial thoughts on the Pittsburgh and Atlanta game was to have Atlanta cover, but after thinking about it I changed my mind to a close Pittsburgh win.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
San Diego	- 5 1/2	Kansas City	Kansas City
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Houston	Jacksonville
Cincinnati	- 3 1/2	Carolina	Carolina
NY Jets	- 3 1/2	Detroit	NY Jets
Miami	- 4 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay
New England	- 5 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo
Philadelphia	- 5 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh	- 1 1/2	Atlanta	Pittsburgh
Denver	- 5 1/2	Cleveland	Denver
Arizona	- 3 1/2	Oakland	Arizona
Seattle	- 6 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota
Indianapolis	- 9 1/2	Washington	Washington
Dallas	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	Dallas

Hopefully I can do better than last week when I only won 5 games (2 weeks in a row I was below 500).

Below is a chart showing the teams playing this week and how they have done against the spreaed. Headings are G - Games, HG-Home Games, and AG-Away Games.

Team	G	G Cov	HG Cov	AG Cov
San Diego	5	80%	100%	66%
Kansas City	5	20%	33%	0%
Jacksonville	5	80%	100%	50%
Houston	5	20%	33%	0%
Cincinnati	5	60%	50%	66%
Carolina	6	16%	0%	33%
NY Jets	6	60%	50%	66%
Detroit	6	33%	66%	0%
Miami	6	0%	0%	0%
Grean Bay	5	20%	0%	50%
New England	5	60%	33%	100%
Buffalo	6	50%	50%	50%
Philadelphia	6	66%	66%	66%
Tampa Bay	5	60%	66%	50%
Pittsburgh	5	40%	66%	0%
Atlanta	5	60%	66%	50%
Denver	5	40%	33%	50%
Cleveland	5	60%	50%	66%
Arizona	6	33%	50%	0%
Oakland	5	20%	0%	33%
Seattle	5	40%	100%	0%
Minnesota	5	60%	66%	50%
Indianapolis	5	40%	33%	50%
Washington	6	33%	33%	33%
Dallas	5	60%	100%	33%
NY Giants	5	66%	66%	66%

Games where I am bucking the trend are:

Kansas City - A Division game between two rivals that I expect to be won by a 4 point spread (21-17).

Carolina - I expect Carolina to win this one going away.

Buffalo - Another Division game and Buffalo always gives the Patriots fits at their place.

Tampa Bay - This is really a push as far as the percentages (Eagles 66% on the road, Tampa 66% at home).

Pittsburgh - I think Atlanta will be reeling from the Vick comments and wouldn't be surprised if they got blown out.

Denver - Another push as each team is 50% in this situation, but I believe Denver is at least a touchdown better.

Seattle - Seattle isn't as good as their record suggest and Minnesota is better than their record. Look for Seattle to win by a FG.

Indianapolis - Both teams cover 33% of the time in this matchup, another push. Still I think the Colts are the better team but won't win by 10 points.

Well, those are the picks and some of the reasons that I went the way that I did.