Sunday, June 22, 2008

Red Sox 2008 Game 79 Preview

Ari@ Bos
D. Haren7-4, 3.26J. Beckett7-4, 3.87
Diamondbacks39-37Red Sox47-31
Monday, June 23      Fenway Park  ✠ 7:05 p.m. ET

American League
EastWLGBL 101 R W1 R LX WX L
Tampa Bay44311.56-41394134
New York41355.08-21394036

ESPN.Com Preview .
Yahoo's Preview .
ESPN.Com after the game Recap.
MLB.Com Press Pass
From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Diamondbacks: Haren had his finest outing of the year Wednesday night against the A's at Chase Field. The right-hander held his former team to just one run on four hits over seven innings. Haren threw more cut fastballs than he normally does, in part because he figured the A's were more familiar with his repertoire than other teams. He began using the cut fastball this spring but got away from it early in the season. It's an important pitch for him because it gives him something to throw rather than just a straight fastball when he falls behind in the count 1-0 or 2-0.

Red Sox: The right-hander looks for his third win of the month and his first three-game winning streak since winning 20 in 2007. Beckett held the Reds scoreless over seven innings on Sunday at Great American Ball Park, allowing just six hits while fanning six and walking two. Beckett makes this start on seven days of rest after the Red Sox built in a break for him simply for maintenance reasons. Beckett earned a win against the Diamondbacks last June, allowing two runs over eight innings. In his career against Arizona, Beckett is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and at Baseball Reference.

Red Sox Batting History vs Haren

J. Ellsbury------------------------------------
D. Pedroia40000001.
J. D. Drew31000002.333.333.333.667
M. Ramirez126201302.500.538.9171.455
M. Lowell84200301.500.444.7501.194
K. Youkilis91000002.
J. Varitek50000003.
C. Crisp125000103.417.417.417.833
J. Lugo71000102.

This line up has faced Haren quite a bit and has some success against him. Haren also has some success against them also as his K rate is better than once every four batters and no walks. If I was Francona though, I would start Casey over Youkilis and Cora over Lugo. Just by making this switch that bottom line would be 70-24-7-0-2-10-0-13-.343-.361-.529-.890.

How about it Terry? Make the smart move here.

Pitching Comparisions Career

Haren513030 1/3281138263.261.196.07
Beckett513028 2/3371858305.541.575.73

A 3.26 era is pretty good versus the Sox but the worrisome detail is that Haren lost his first three games versus the Sox and is 1-0 in his last start versus the Sox. However when one looks at Haren's history at Fenway we see that he has a 4.60 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP. He also only goes 5.22 innings per start at Fenway.

Maybe, after the Sox struggling with the Cardinal starters who had their numbers a look at an old reliable will help this offense.

Pitching Comparisions this year

Haren1574096 2/381351016843.261.006.44

Very similar numbers for Haren and Beckett this year. The ERA is the glaring statistic where Haren has Beckett beat. However, I am confident that Beckett can contain this team. I'm thinking we'll see another fine pitched game by both starters. I'll take the home team in that situation, and what a surprise, thats the Sox!

Inside Edge

TypeAll1st PEarly2 SAheadBehindRHBLHBOp. BA
Fastball54 %62 %57 %39 %40 %68 %53 %55 %.291
Curves3 %5 %4 %2 %2 %3 %4 %3 %.291
Sliders23 %26 %26 %17 %19 %23 %25 %20 %.213
Change Ups17 %5 %10 %37 %34 %4 %16 %18 %.167

Nobody is having a lot of success against Haren. Still, he is a fastball - slider pitcher and the Sox actually do fairly well against those type of pitchers. For example, Manny is hitting .280 and Drew .298 versus Right Handed Pitchers on fastballs. They also are hitting very similar numbers on sliders. I really think that Haren will not present as much of a problem as to the big guns as you would think.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

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