Sunday, June 01, 2008

Red Sox 2008 Misc. Post 3

Dr. Strangeroad or how I stopped caring about road losses!!!

Watching the game and decided to go ahead and work on a road woes post. It has been well documented that the Sox have basically sucked on the road this year, in fact since the opening series versus the A's in Japan and Oakland the Sox have been, well, fragging abominable on the road. 10 and 18 since that 3-1 start. Thank god for the O's and their horrendous defense or it would be even worse this year.

So, should we be concerned with this teams inability to have a winning road trip? Is this an abnormality or is it reality?

Well, these are good questions to ponder but are they relevant questions? Lets take a trip and look at this years road trips:

Dates1st T.Rec.2nd T.Rec.3rd T.Rec.W'sL'sSeries WSeries LSplits
3/25 - 4/6Oakland3-1Toronto0-334110
4/14 - 4/17Cleveland2-0New York1-131101
4/25 - 4/29Tampa0-303010
5/5 - 5/14Detroit3-1Minnesota1-3Baltimore0-246120
5/23 - 6/2Oakland0-3Seattle1-2 Baltimore2-0*35110

* Sox are up 7-3 as I type this post in the 3rd game of the this series.

Not pretty by any stretch of the imagination, not pretty at all. Still, when you look at the number of series that the Sox have won so far on the road, being under .500 by 1 series is not bad. In other words, as bad as they have sucked this year, they are still winning series, and that is what you want. If you are going to be troubled by anything in that table, it is the fact that they have been swept three times on the road so far, and have yet to sweep anyone on the road.

So, I am starting to feel better about this team on the road, but 13-19? Well, in order to win 96 games, if the Sox continued to lose at this pace on the road, the Sox would need to go 42-13 at home. Impossible? Not really, that would mean that they would cool off at home as they are presently winning 81% of their home games and that rate would be a 76% rate. Still a 76% winning percentage at home seems awfully high to maintain for a baseball team.

No peace of mind yet, though I am starting to get a tingle up my leg. Is there anything else that will make me feel better? Have you ever heard of a rhetorical question? Lets look at the last five years of road records for the various teams:

TeamW'sL'sW %
LA Anaheim910.474
New York2225.468
Kansas City78.467
NL Teams2619.578

There are some eye opening stats in that table. Seattle and Minnesota just absolutely kill the Sox in their parks. Now I am starting to down right love the road. True the Sox are 13-19 on the road, but over the last five years against the teams played this year the Sox are 140-142.

If the Sox just do their average against the other teams on the road, they will end up around .500 on the road. Just regress to the mean and they will be ok! Just win 29 more road games and they will be playing .600 on the road for the rest of the year. Looking at their schedule, they do not play Oakland again on the road and they have six games at Seattle and LA Anaheim.

Just regress to the mean and the Sox will be oh, so shiny!!!

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