Red Sox 2008 Game 85 Preview

			@
J. Masterson		4-1, 3.43		J. Shields		5-5, 3.76
Red Sox		50-34		Rays		49-32

Monday, June 30      Tropicana Field  ✠ 7:10 p.m. ET

American League

East	W	L	GB	L 10	1 R W	1 R L	X W	X L
Tampa Bay	49	32	-	7-3	14	10	46	35
Boston	50	34	.5	5-5	11	12	49	35
New York	44	38	5.5	5-5	14	9	43	39
Baltimore	41	39	7.5	5-5	17	12	40	40
Toronto	40	43	10.0	5-5	12	20	45	38

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From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Red Sox: Masterson earned his second career win against Tampa Bay on June 3, a 7-4 decision at Fenway Park. It wasn't his most dominant performance, allowing four runs on six hits during six innings of work. But it did set the tone for the three-game set as the Red Sox swept the Rays to regain first place in the AL East. Masterson's last start was very similar to that game against the Rays; he allowed four runs on seven hits against Arizona on Tuesday.

Rays: Shields is coming off a resounding victory over the Marlins on Wednesday night in which the right-hander broke a seven-game dry spell to notch the win. He tossed seven innings of four-hit ball, allowing only a solo home run to Mike Jacobs in the sixth inning. Shields will face a new rival in the Red Sox, as the right-hander was one of five Rays suspended in June 5's on-field melee at Fenway Park. Monday's game will be the 27-year-old's fourth appearance against the Red Sox this year. Shields has beaten Boston once this season, in April 27's game at Tropicana Field, but sports an impressive 1.99 ERA in home starts.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and at Baseball Reference.

Red Sox Batting History vs Shields

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA	OBA	Slug	OPS
J. Ellsbury	7	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.143	.250	.143	.393
D. Pedroia	7	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	.571	.625	.714	1.339
J. D. Drew	12	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	.333	.333	.500	.833
M. Ramirez	11	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	.364	.417	.364	.780
M. Lowell	10	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	.300	.300	.300	.600
K. Youkilis	14	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	.000	.176	.000	.176
J. Varitek	8	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	.125	.125	.125	.250
B. Moss	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
J. Lugo	10	4	2	0	0	2	1	3	.400	.455	.600	1.055
Totals	79	21	5	0	0	5	4	19	.266	.337	.329	.666

Right now Jason Varitek, aka "the Captain" is stinking up the place at the plate. Tonight would be a good night for Tek to sit. Give him a couple of days off in a row, and maybe, just maybe, he will be ready for New York.

I would also sit Youkilis, though he has been swinging the bat well lately, Shields owns him. Give him a night off also and let Casey swing the bat tonight. Of course, Terry will ignore my advice so, confidence level of them winning tonight 20%.

Pitching Comparisions Career

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	IP/GS
Masterson	1	1	0	0	6	6	4	2	2	5	6.00	1.33	6.00
Shields	7	1	4	1	35	35	22	5	10	36	5.66	1.29	5.00

Masterson has been, well, masterful in most of his games this year. His one appearance versus the Rays being one of his worst starts. Look for him to come out firing tonight though and I expect that slider of his to be working down and away to the left handed hitters.

Shields has beaten the Sox once this year. That is his only win ever against the Sox. With that ERA I can see why. Look for a patient Sox team to take him deep tonight and I fully expect him to be knocked out by the sixth inning. The question is can the bull pen for the Sox hold off the Rays.

Pitching Comparisions this year

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	IP/GS
Masterson	7	4	1	0	42	29	16	6	21	32	3.43	1.19	6.00
Shields	16	5	5	2	103	100	43	11	19	83	3.76	1.16	6.44

Pretty evenly matched between these two pitchers. Still I think I'm going to give a slight edge here to Masterson.

Inside Edge

Type (%'s)	All	1st P	Early	2 S	Ahead	Behind	RHB	LHB	Op. BA (avg)
Fastball	52	68	57	31	32	68	51	53	.313
Curves	10	9	11	9	15	2	13	6	.204
Sliders	10	10	12	6	10	7	14	5	.262
Change Ups	28	12	19	54	43	22	23	34	.179
Totals	4,278	1,194	2,691	1,111	1,482	962	2,226	2,052	.249

Shields has been tough to beat, but if you can get into the Fastball counts you can beat him. The Sox will need to be patient against this guy.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.