Reasons Not To Gamble

So come down to the last day of the regular season, Cowboys needed to win to win the division with an eagles loss. Well, the boys an eleven point favorite lose by 8 making the eagles game insignificant so the back ups play and they lose to Atlanta. That is why I only play games not bet on Football. You just never know. Oh, yeah, I picked the Bears to beat Green Bay, well, of course that isn't going to happen (right now I feel like Charlie Brown).

Still, even if I lose the Bears game I will be 8 games under .500 and still be in the top 80% of those playing the Pigskin Pick'em game at ESPN. com. That is why only suckers bet on outcomes they don't control.

aaaargh II

Sometimes its not good being a Cowboys fan. 2 Turnovers lead to 14 points and they lose by 6. Aaaaaargh.

Australia celebrates 2007

Remember, its almost here. Have a good evening and if you must drink (and I must), remember friends don't let friends drive drunk.

Hall Of Fame I - David Wells

Earlier today I had a discussion with one of my co-workers about Hall of Fame Worthiness of former Red Sox players and Randy Johnson. Specifically we discussed Jim Rice, Manny, Curt Schilling, and David Wells.

My first thought is Rice definitely should be in the hall, Manny will be a first ballot electee and the other two are no go's. Randy Johnson will also be a first ballot electee. Other Red Sox players or ex players that are coming up on their retirements that will be elected are Pedro, possibly Nomar, David Ortiz if he continues his output for 3 to 4 more years will be and of course the elephant in the room Roger.

Of course I decided to go look at some of the numbers to see if I can justify their exclusion or their elections.

First lets look at Wells - he has pitched for 20 years in the majors with a 230 wins and 148 losses for a .608 winning percentage. Now I am one of those who says 300 wins you are in, less than 300 you better be special. Wells is not special, he had only one year where he has won 20, one year where he won 19, and one year where he won 18. Career ERA is 4.07 which does compare favorably with league era of 4.45.

If you look at his comparable pitchers you will find listed -

1. Jamie Moyer - not a HOFer
2. Kenny Rogers - not a HOFer
3. Mike Mussina - Possible HOFer
4. Schilling - not a HOFer
5. Kevin Brown - not a HOFer
6. Herb Pennock - HOF
7. Lew Burdette - not a HOFer
8. Bob Welch - not a HOFer
9. Freddie Fitzsimmons - not a HOFer
10. Carl Hubbell - HOF

So out of 10 comparable pitchers you have 2 HOF and 1 possible HOF. I like David but so far, not Hall of Fame Material.

Now usually you can make a case by saying over a 5 or 10 year period did he dominate the league?. Lets look at his best 10 year period, in wins:

1995 - 2004
Won 149 - Lost 83 (.642 %), in 2036 + innings with a ERA of 4.11. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 174 - 83 in 2270+ innings with a 2.89 ERA
2. Johnson - 165 - 66 in 2122+ innings with a 2.7 ERA
3. Pedro - 161 - 65 in 2036+ innings with a 2.67 ERA
4. Mussina - 159 - 98 in 2160+ innings with a 3.72 ERA
   
5. Clemens - 156 - 71 in 2099+ innings with a 3.29 ERA
6. Pettitte - 155 - 82 in 1875+ innings with a 3.94 ERA
7. Glavine - 154 - 96 in 2218 innings with a 3.34 ERA
   
8. Wells
   
9. Schilling - 148 - 86 in 2123+ innings with a 3.25 ERA
10. Moyer 141 - 75 in 1938+ innings with a 4.01 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 7th in percentage (minimum 100 wins), 6th in Shutouts (minimum 100 wins), and 18th in ERA (minimum 100 wins).

So far, a top tier pitcher but HOF? I say no!

Lets look at his best 5 year period, in wins:

1996 - 2000
Won 82 - Lost 46 (.641 %), in 1118 innings with a ERA of 4.36. The top 10 in Wins during that period were:

1. Maddux - 90 - 42 in 1197+ innings with a 2.73 ERA
2. Pedro - 90 - 36 in 1122 innings with a 2.45 ERA
3. Pettitte - 88 - 45 in 1074 innings with a 3.96 ERA
4. Glavine - 84 - 43 in 1179+ innings with a 3.19 ERA
5. Brown - 82 - 41 in 1209+ innings with a 2.51 ERA
   
6. Wells
7. Johnson - 80 - 31 in 1039 innings with a 2.74 ERA
8. Clemens - 78 - 44 in 1133+ innings with a 3.23 ERA
9. Neagle - 76 - 39 in 985+ innings with a 3.69 ERA
10. Mussina - 76 - 51 in 1115+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
    

So, he was 8th in innings pitched, 8th in wins, 10th in percentage (minimum 50 wins), 5th in Shutouts (minimum 50 wins), and 36th in ERA (minimum 50 wins).

Again a top tier Pitcher but not HOF.

Update: Bill James agrees with me. Go here.

Merry Christmas

From our house to your puter.

Thursday night football

Green Bay 28 - Minnesota 17.

NFL - Week 15

Well, it is time for the week 15 of the NFL picks. Last week I went 6 and 10 again, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 15 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Seattle	- 9 1/2	San Fran.	San Fran.	Seattle	Sea 14 - SF 24
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Atlanta	Dallas	Atlanta	Dal 38 - Atl 28
Minnesota	- 3 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Minnesota	Min 13 - NY 26
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jacksonville	Jac 17 - Ten 24
Green Bay	- 4 1/2	Detroit	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 17 - Det 9
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Chicago	Chi 34 - TB 31
New Orleans	- 9 1/2	Washington	Washington	Washington	NO 10 - Was 16
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Carolina	Pittsburgh	Carolina	Pit 37 - Car 3
Baltimore	- 11 1/2	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland	Bal 27 - Cle 17
New England	- 11 1/2	Houston	Houston	Houston	NE 40 - Hou 7
Buffalo	- 1 1/2	Miami	Miami	Buffalo	Buf 21 - Mia 0
Denver	- 2 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	Denver	Den 37 - AZ 20
NY Giants	- 5 1/2	Philadelphia	Giants	Giants	NY 22 - Phi 36
San Diego	- 8 1/2	Kansas City	San Diego	Kansas City	SD 20 - KC 9
Oakland	- 1 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Oakland	Oak 0 - STL 20
Indianapolis	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Indianapolis	Ind 34 - Cin 16

Seattle San Francisco and Dallas Atlanta games I picked earlier but did not post (espn pigskin pick'em). So far am 2 - 0 Madden 07 picked 35 - 15 Seattle and 27 - 24 Atlanta.

Sunday and Monday's games

Minnesota vs NY Jets - Both teams are in the play off hunt but the Vikings are 6 - 7 ATS while the Jets are 8 - 5. Jets 24 - Vikings 21. Madden 07 pick 27 - 20 Vikings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee - Titans make it 5 in a row 27 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-21 Jaguars.

Green Bay vs Detroit - Favre's best game of the year against the lowly Lions, today he repeats that performance, Packers 35 - Lions 21. Madden 07 pick 24-14 Packers.

Chicago vs Tampa Bay - Double digit spread? Bears win 28 - 21. Madden 07 pick 28-10 Bears.

New Orleans vs Washington - Saints are 9 and 4 ATS but today they stumble and win 21 - 17. Madden 07 pick 24 - 17.

Pittsburgh at Carolina - Wenke is 3 and 19 as a starter. Pittsburgh 6 - 7 ATS and Carolina is like 1 and 5 at home ATS. Pittsburgh 17 - Carolina 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 10 Panthers. (I keep on changing my mind on this but when you stink as a starter you stink)

Baltimore vs Cleveland - Ravens are 8 - 5 ATS but I don't trust their offense against this divisional foe, Ravens 21 - Browns 14. Madden 07 pick 17 - 13 Ravens.

New England vs Houston - Patriots struggle at home this year, Houston has enough offense to keep the injury riddled Pats on the field all day. Patriots 21 - Texans 17. Madden 07 pick 38 - 31 Pats.

Buffalo vs Miami - I think the win over the Patriots last week and Miami's record the last month of a season means the Dolphins win this game 28 - 17. Madden 07 pick 30 - 27 Bills.

Denver at Arizon - Lienart vs Cutler, I'm going with Lienart winning this game 35 - 28. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Bronco's.

NY Giants vs Philadelphia - Giants won the first game and usually the team that wins the first one in this series sweeps. Giants 35 - Eagles 21. Madden 07 pick 24-13 Giants. (another game where I keep on being a Charlie Brown, sticking with Eli to continue to shine and Garcia is due for one of his atrocious games)

San Diego vs Kansas City - Kansas City continues its free fall, Charges win 35 - 17. Madden 07 pick 22 - 17 Chargers.

Oakland vs St. Louis - I like Art Shell as a person, but as a coach he is bilge water. St. Louis kicks a 59 yard field goal to win 24 - 22. Madden 07 pick 24-17 Raiders.

Indianapolis vs Cincinnati - Have you seen the Colts defense, if spotted please tell Tony Dungy. Cincinnati comes out blazing and nips the Colts late 43 - 42. Madden 07 pick 28-24 Colts.

See you later.

Win Shares III

Recapping, we have now signed J.D., Lugo, Dice, Donelly, Romero and Mirabelli. So lets take a look at how our win shares are now looking:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	15	SP	Schilling	14
1b	Youkilis	11	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	19	SP	Wakefield	10
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon	12 *
2b	Pedroia	15 **	SP	Matsuzaka	12 *
LF	Rameriz	30	RP	Timlin	8
CF	Crisp	15	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	23	RP	DelCarmen	2
DH	Ortiz	28
1 / 3b	Hinske	9	RP	Donnelly	6
2b / ss	Cora	9	RP	Romero	4
OF	Wily Mo	9	RP	Okajami	6 ***
C	Mirabelli	5	RP	Unknown
	Totals	162			92

Using the 3 year average of all players unless otherwise noted.

* Average of top 90 starting pitchers over the last 3 years.
** Average of top 30 starting 2B over the last 3 years.
*** Average of top 150 relief pitchers for last 3 years.

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. This totals 254 right now which is
31 short of the expected goal. Of course we do not have a closer which would push us closer to the magic number.

All win share information determined from The Hardball Times.

The only problem is that if you were to take a look at the top Win Shares for closers over the last 3 years you will see that the leaders have posted 17 (lidge), 16 (rivera) and 18 (papelbon). The average of the top 30 is only 11.5 shares. Obviously, no matter who we get as a closer would leave us short by either 14 or 20 to reach this magic number. Not looking good for 95 wins.

Dice's news conference

Found this through the Boston Sports Media site. Pretty good translation of yesterdays questions and answers during the press conference. Dice appears to be level headed, I found it intriguing that he stated he hopes to make the starting line up. No big head yet for this guy, and I think that bodes well.

Well How About That

Ok, so I was wrong and Boras didn't blow up the posting system. Am just glad that Dice forced Boras to his knees for us. Glad to see a player who understands that the agent works for him. Theo also made a couple of additions today that should help on the bullpen side, no closer yet, but the bullpen should be better than last year.

Football picks later tonight.

RSN held hostage

Peter Gammons pipes in with his thoughts on the Matsuzaka negotiations. I have commented at a couple of places that I think that Boras wants to destroy the posting system and is using Matsuzaka as the player to do this. He keeps on pointing out that this player is better than Schmidt, Zito etc., so the sox should be willing to go to 18 to 20 mil. for Dice K. While I agree that he is a better pitcher than the Lily's and so forth, is he better than Schilling? Is he better than Pettitte?

I really feel that this is not going to get done, Boras thinks he's Curt Flood, and the bird of prey is circling the Sox front office.

Creme W BB Projections 1

Charlie Creme has came out with his first projections for the Womens NCAA Basketball tournament. Since his bracketology postings change every time I thought I would reproduce it every time he updates here at Peace Love. That way we can see how they progress.

Dayton

Bracketology 1

Seed	Fresno	Greensboro	Dallas
1	Duke	ACC	Big 12	Maryland
16	NEC	SWAC	A - Sun	MEAC
8	C - USA	Rutgers	MWC	MAC
9	Pittsburgh	Washington	Boston College	Temple
5	Texas A & M	A- 10	DePaul	Michigan St.
12	Western Ky	Hofstra	TCU	Horizon
4	Louisville	Vanderbilt	Stanford	California
13	Southern	MVC	Montana	Big South
6	Marquette	Kentucky	Texas Tech	Florida St.
11	WAC	Sun Belt	CAA	America East
3	Pac-10	Baylor	Purdue	Georgia
14	WCC	Mid-Con	Southland	MAAC
7	NC State	Texas	South Florida	Virginia
10	Indiana	BYU	Kansas St.	Nebraska
2	SEC	Big Ten	LSU	Big East
15	IVY	Big West	OVC	Patriot

Bids By Conference

Conf	Teams	Conf	Teams
ACC	Duke, UNC, NC St., Maryland, Florida ST., Virginia, Boston College	Big East	Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida, DePaul, Marquette
Big 12	Texas A & M, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Kansas State	SEC	Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Pac 10	Washington, Arizona St., Stanford, California	Big 10	Indiana, Ohio St., Purdue, Michigan St.
Mount. W.	TCU, New Mexico, BYU	Atl. 10	Temple, George Washington
Sun Belt	Middle Tenn. St. Western Ky.	Colonial	Delaware, Hofstra
NEC	Quinnipiac	SWAC	Jackson St.
MVC	Illinois St.	C-USA	Rice
Southern	Chattanooga	WAC	Fresno St.
Mid-Con	Oral Roberts	WCC	Pepperdine
Ivy	Penn	Big West	UC Santa Barbara
A-Sun	Belmont	MEAC	Coppin St.
MAC	Bowling Green	Horizon	UW-Green Bay
Big South	Liberty	Big Sky	Montana
America E.	Hartford	MAAC	Marist
OVC	Samford	Southland	SE Louisiana
Patriot	Army

Last four in Kansas St., W. Kentucky, TCU and Hofstra.
Last four out UCLA, Missouri, Southern Cal., and Notre Dame.

34 of the teams come from six conferences and 21 come from 3.

Looking at Drew II

Rob Neyer takes a look at what all of these high priced free agents have to do to earn their outrageous salaries next year.

Drew signed a five-year contract that will pay him $70 million, which works out to $14 million per season, otherwise known as average annual value (AAV). Last season, Drew's WARP was 7.3 and he earned 19 win shares. Essentially, if he can duplicate his 2006 numbers in 2007, he'll be worth that $14 million. Roughly speaking, that means 150 games, a .285 batting average, 20 homers and 90 walks. Does he have to do that every season to justify his salaries? No, because of that general salary inflation we mentioned earlier. If we assume that salary inflation will continue at roughly the same pace it has for many years now, Drew's $14 million in 2011 will be akin to approximately $10 million in 2007 dollars. Which is a good thing, because Drew is 31 years old. Like nearly all free agents, Drew is likely to suffer a performance decline over the course of his latest contract. Assuming he does reach those aforementioned statistical benchmarks in 2007, it becomes a race of trend lines: Will general salary inflation balance general decline with age?

This sounds about right to me also. Last week in looking at drew I posted that if he does his career average but stays on the field for 156 games he would put up some very good numbers. In fact he would exceed what Neyer says is needed. Makes me feel better about his potentials.

The General

So, Coach Knight is only three wins from tying Coach Smith for most career wins in college Basketball. Personally I have always liked the general. You can disagree with his methods, you can call him a bully, you can call him an egotist but what you must always call him is a man with high expectations for his players on and off the court. When you graduate your players at the rate he does, when you coach for decades without even a sniff of recruiting violations as compared to 99% of the other coaches in his field you must be doing something right. Best of all, his next victory moves the bigot one slot lower in the wins.

A good article about Coach Smith talking about this event can be found here. Notice the comments by Williams and Wooden.

NFL Picks Week 14

UPDATE: Started off strong by winning my first 4 picks, then watched the rest of the day get flushed down the toilet. JETS, why oh why do I pick the Jets at home, PATriots - 21 - 0, what did you forget how to score?

Well, it is time for the week 14 of the NFL picks. Last week I went 6 and 10, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 14 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Pittsburgh	- 7 1/2	Cleveland	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pit 27 - Cle 7
Kansas City	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore	Kansas City	KC 10 - Bal 20
Houston	- 1 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Hou 20 - Ten 26
Carolina	- 2 1/2	NY Giants	NY Giants	Carolina	Car 13 - NY 27
Cincinnati	- 10 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland	Cin 27 - Oak 10
Washington	- 1 1/2	Philadelphia	Washington	Washington	Was 19 - Phi 21
Atlanta	- 3 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Atl 17 - TB 6
Indianapolis	- 1 1/2	Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Ind 17 - Jac 44
Detroit	- 2 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota	Det 30 - Min 30
New England	- 3 1/2	Miami	New England	New England	NE 0 - Mia 21
San Francisco	- 4 1/2	Green Bay	San Francisco	San Francisco	SF 19 - GB 30
Seattle	- 3 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	Seattle	Sea 21 - AZ 27
NY Jets	- 3 1/2	Buffalo	NY Jets	Buffalo	NY 13 - Buf 31
San Diego	- 7 1/2	Denver	Denver	San Diego	SD 48 - Den 20
Dallas	- 6 1/2	New Orleans	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 17 - NO 42
Chicago	- 6 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	St. Louis	Chi 42 - STL 27

Pittsburgh vs Cleveland - picked on Thursday 27 - 10. Madden 07 pick 24 - 10 Pittsburgh.

Kansas City vs Baltimore - Baltimore bit the big one 10 days ago against a division rival. I see this a blip on the radar. Look for Baltimore to win on a late field goal 24 - 21. Madden 07 pick 24 - 19 Chiefs.

Houston vs Tennessee - Vince Young 5 and 3 as a starter, enough said. Titans win 21 - 14. Madden 07 pick 27 - 6 Tennessee.

Carolina vs NY Giants - Both teams are playing for their playoff lives, and both are struggling. Panthers have problems covering at home. Panthers are 1 - 5 ATS last six games against the NFC East. Going with the Giants 27 - 24. Madden 07 pick 31 - 14 Panthers.

Cincinatti vs Oakland - 10 1/2 points given to Oakland! Oakland's defense is better than that. Cincinatti 21 - Oakland 12. Madden 07 pick 24 - 15 Bengals.

Washington vs Philadelphia - Philly is on a semi role and still in the wild card hunt, but this is at Washington. Washington 14 - Philly 7. Madden 07 pick 13 - 10 Redskins.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Which Vick will show up, the one who played like Aikman in the first couple of games or the one who has played like, well crap is the best word for it. I think the crappy one plays as this is a division game and Atlanta is on the road. TB pulls the upset 21 - 17. Madden 07 pick 24 - 20 Buccaneers.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - I know the Colts have a playoff spot already wrapped up, but this is a divisional game and I just don't see the offense continuing to struggle. Colts 31 - Jaguars 21. (reason to shudder Jaguars are 6- 1 ATS as dogs, Colts are 1 - 6 ATS in their last 4 weeks of season). Madden 07 pick 20 - 13 Jaguars.

Detroit vs Minnesota - The Millen clock is ticking. Look for the Lions to drop another tough one at home. (reason to shudder Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs teams with losing records). Vikings 21 - Lions 17. Madden 07 pick 22 - 20 Lions.

New England at Miami - Why you should not pick the Patriots, 2 and 3 in last 5 games at Miami. 2 and 11 vs Miami in December. Why you should pick the Patriots - Brady is finally figuring out his wide receivers, the Pats are still in the hunt for home field advantage and Miami stinks on offense. Pats 31 - Dolphins 14. Madden 07 pick 30 - 24 Patriots.

San Francisco Vs Green Bay - Favre can not win these games by himself. San Francisco has steadily improved every week. 49ers 24 - GB 10. Madden 07 pick 24 - 17 49ers.

Seattle at Arizona - Seattle is still getting back in the flow with their returning players. Lienart is steadily improving and Dennis Green is usually good in the last month of the season. Arizon 28 - Seattle 21. Madden 07 pick 44 - 36 Seahawks.

NY Jets vs Buffalo - Mangini has this team playing well, Jets win going away 31 - 17. Madden 07 pick 20 - 17 Jets.

San Diego vs Denver - Its Shanahan vs Schottenheimer, offensive game with both teams racking up the points. San Diego 35 - Denver 31. Madden 07 pick 22 - 10 Chargers.

Dallas vs New Orleans - Dallas has too many weapons, Romo goes crazy and puts up 35 points, big D's defense cleans the ground with crushing tackles. (reason to shudder Saints are 6 - 1 ATS in the last 7 games as underdogs). Cowboys 35 - Saints 18. Madden 07 pick 30 - 13 Dallas.

Chicago at St. Louis - Even if Griese did take half of the snaps in practice this week their offense stinks, Da Bears win with defense but today St. Louis scores and scores, St. Louis 21 - Chicago 10. Madden 07 pick 20 - 17 Bears.

Pitt vs Cleveland

Real quick Pittsburgh 21 - Cleveland 10.

Looking at Drew

I have been trying to figure out a way to project what JD might achieve when he plays this year. As always I used the database at Baseball Musings. Needless to say he is hard to pigeonhole due to his injury history. I did find some very good information on his career. There are some things that do worry me:

• Against American League team at their parks his stats are:

Batting Average: .200

OBA: .287

Slugging: .300

• In forty games he has 4 home runs and 12 rbi's.
• He struck out 36 times and walked 16
• He also scored 13 times

In 3 games at fenway he had a .222 BA, .300 OBA, and a slugging % of .889. Of course the problem is that 3 games isn't a very good sample so how do we project his 81 games at Fenway?

Well, if you look at his last three years he averages 121 games played, batting .293, OBA of .415, and a slugging % of .532. If you project that over a 162 game period that would be 156 games started, 165 hits, 33 doubles, 7 triples, 29 home runs, 102 RBI's, 115 walks, and 121 K's.

How good of a projection is this? Not for sure, but it would represent a career high in games (146 2006), hits (158 2004), RBI's (100 2006) and strikeouts (116 2004). Looking at those numbers again maybe that isn't an outrageous of a projection. Will keep on thinking about ways his numbers should be weighted.

Revisting Win Shares 2

Well, now that Drew and Lugo have signed its time to revist the win shares for this team. The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
SS	Lugo	13	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
2b	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	171			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 221, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 257.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

Previously we had Loretta with 16 shares, now we have Lugo at 13 shares.

Think Bronson Arroyo will enjoy the new double play combination behind him this year? I still can't believe that the best double play combo I have ever seen play for the Sox lasted only one year.

Drew and Lugo

Have been busy for a couple of days, but have been getting a lot of enjoyment of hearing the Weei boys bust their guts screaming about the Drew and Lugo signings. Ordway (fat b******) and Callahan have been the two biggest screamers (what else is new eh - ed). Of course it wouldn't be me if I didn't go and look at some numbers as usual. So of course I went to Baseball Musings and pulled up their line up analysis database. Some interesting things here:

Lugo SS
Youkilis 1b
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Drew RF
Lowell 3b
Varitek C
Pedroia 2b
Crisp CF

This line up is projected to score 5.601 runs per game. That is a pretty good output for a team and would lead to 907 runs per game. I would take that from my offense any day of the week.

For comparison purposes, Massarotti has his starters up at the Herald. I looked at projections for his but they come in on the low side at 5.4 runs per game.

Cruising the web

Cruising the web while watching the SEC championship game I found this comment at USA today about 2007 rookies:

8. Dustin Pedroia, IF, Red Sox: Depending on Boston's moves the rest of the offseason, Pedroia could end up being the team's second baseman or its shortstop. Second base is more likely, and he'll probably be a steady but not spectacular player with neither exceptional power nor blazing speed.

Pretty much sums up my feelings about Pedroia. I really think he will be a steady player but not an outstanding player.

A pretty good recap of Japanese players at USA today also.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Well, it is time for the week 13 NFL picks. Last week I went 8 and 8 again, which keeps me below .500 for the year.

Week 13 NFL

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Cincinnati	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore	Cincinnati	Cin 13 - Bal 7
Indianapolis	- 7 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Ind 17 - Ten 20
St. Louis	- 6 1/2	Arizona	St. Louis	Arizona	STL 20 - Az 34
Chicago	- 9 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota	Minnesota	Chi 23 - Min 13
Green Bay	- 1 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Green Bay	GB 10 - NY 38
New Orleans	- 7 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	New Orleans	NO 34 - SF 10
San Diego	- 6 1/2	Buffalo	San Diego	San Diego	SD 24 - Buf 21
Kansas City	- 5 1/2	Cleveland	Kansas City	Cleveland	KC 28 - Cle 31
Washington	- 1 1/2	Atlanta	Atlanta	Washington	Was 14 - Atl 24
New England	- 13 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	NE 28 - Det 21
Miami	- 1 1/2	Jacksonville	Miami	Miami	Mia 10 - Jac 24
Oakland	- 3 1/2	Houston	Houston	Oakland	Oak 14 - Hou 23
Pittsburgh	- 8 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh	Pit 20 - TB 3
Dallas	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 23 - NY 20
Denver	- 3 1/2	Seattle	Seattle	Denver	Den 20 - Sea 23
Carolina	- 3 1/2	Philadelphia	Carolina	Carolina	Car 24 - Phi 27

Indianapolis at Tennessee - Vince Young baby, Vince Young. I expect the colts to win but it will be closer than a touchdown. Madden 07 predicts 15 - 10 colts.

St. Louis vs Arizona - St. Louis has lost 6 in a row but the Cardinals are a quick fix, this is a game that should not be even close. Madden 07 predicts 28 - 31 Arizona.

Chicago vs Minnesota - Chicago is not playing very well right now, of course the Vikings aren't either. Look for the Bears defense to win this game 21 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 20 Bears.

Green Bay vs NY Jets - Favre is not playing well, Jets defense has been good. Look for NY to win 17 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 31 - 23 Packers.

New Orleans vs San Francisico - New Orleans got back on the winning track last week and will make it 2 in a row by winning 24 - 21. Madden 07 predicts 16 - 6 Saints.

San Diego at Buffalo - I think San Diego is the best team in the AFC right now while Buffalo is up and down, San Diego wins 28 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 33 - 14 Chargers.

Kansas City at Cleveland - KC is on a roll, Cleveland stinks. KC wins 31 - 14. Madden 07 predicts 27 - 24 Chiefs.

Washington vs Atlanta - After the implosion of Vick last week look for Atlanta to win this 14 - 13. Madden 07 predicts 20 - 17 Washington.

New England vs Detroit - Patriots have improved each week this year but 2 touchdowns is too much to cover. Patriots win 35 - 27. Madden 07 predicts 28 - 21 Patriots.

Miami vs Jacksonville - Wild card play starts early as both teams try to stay in the hunt. 21 - 14 Dolphins. Madden 07 predicts 27 - 17 Miami.

Oakland vs Houston - Texans pick up their 4th win of the year 21 - 18. Madden 07 predicts 22 - 17 Raiders.

Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has been playing better than their record, plus they played on Thanksgiving, which should allow them some healing time. Steelers win 24 - 17. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 6 Steelers.

Dallas at NY Giants - Giants hoping for sweep of the Cowboys but are showing signs of implosion. Cowboys win going away 31 - 21. Madden 07 predicts 26 - 20 Cowboys.

Denver Vs Seattle - I don't care how good their rookie quarterback is, he's still a rookie. Seattle kicks a field goal late to win 21 - 20. Madden 07 predicts 21 - 11 Broncos.

Carolina at Philadelphia - The Panthers are looking to get back on track, Eagles look like a mash unit. Carolina wins this game 28 - 17. Madden 07 predicts 20 - 12 Panthers.

Have lots of family stuff to do today so probably no more posts until tomorrow

SEC football championship game

Arkansas vs Florida, and so far the razorbacks look like crap on offense. Two series with the ball and two 3 and outs. Last time I looked USC was leading UCLA. What difference does that make? Well, if USC loses to the Bruins, then the Gators need to beat my razorbacks badly to make their case for playing Ohio St. in the BCS game. So, go Trojans, Go Arkansas!!!!!

UPDATE: At the half, thanks to a blocked punt the gators lead 17 - 7. USC has lost to UCLA so my worst case scenario has came about. I now need to root for the gators to whip my team by 30 points so that they can play Ohio St. in the championship game. Freaking USC.

Of course if Arkansas had taken care of business last week against LSU then I could be rooting for the Razorbacks to win and make the jump over Michigan to play against the buckeyes.

UPDATE: You have to be kidding me, after taking the lead on an intercepted pass (option toss) and forcing the Gators to use their last Time Out on a 4th and 1 at midfield, the Razorbacks fumble the punt in the end zone. Gators 24 - Arkansas 17 now. Of course this means that Michigan gets its rematch. Argghhhhhhhhh.

UPDATE: A game of streaks, Gators race out to 17 quick points, Razorbacks score 21, Gators score 14. Argghhhhhhhhh.

FINAL UPDATE: Gators win 38 to 28. Will this be enough to put them ahead of Michigan only the BCS knows. Freaking Trojans!!!!!! Of course this loss puts the razorbacks on the outside looking in for the BCS bowls. Not for sure where they will end up, but the Cotton would be my guess.

Probable runs per game

Well I visited the probable line up runs produced page over at basball musings again today since it looks like a year without Manny next year. The line up I used was the following:

1. Lugo SS
2. Pedroia 2b
3. Ortiz DH
4. Youkilis 1b
5. Pena CF
6. Drew RF
7. Lowell 3b
8. Varitek C
9. Crisp LF

Surprisingly the average only dropped from 5.8 to a 5.0 run per game. 5 runs per game would be 810 runs per year. That would be middle of the pack last year but only 10 below last years output for this team. I will have to think about this, but I truly believe that the loss of Manny would be one of those classic additions by subtraction situations.

I think I could like this team next year if they are able to solve the bullpen and sign D-K.

BCS Poll out week 13

Well the latest BCS poll is out, no real surprises that I can see but here is the top ten places:

1. Ohio St.
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Florida
5. LSU
6. Louisville
7. Boise St.
8. Notre Dame
9. Arkansas
10. Auburn

Of Course Louisville must be just kicking itself about losing that game to Rutgers. Without that loss it is concievable that they would be in 3rd place.

How deep is the Big 10 and the SEC? According to the computers SEC wins outright as 4 of the 12 teams in the SEC are in the top 10 and 5 teams in the top 15, compared to 2 of 11 being in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15 spots.

As for my personal top 10:

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Louisville
8. California
9. Tennessee
10. Auburn

No way is Notre Dame in the same class as the SEC teams. Remember if not for a Michigan State meltdown they would have 3 losses and 3 wins against the service acadamies really hurts their strength of schedule claims. Meanwhile, Arkansas beat Auburn who beat Florida, which beat LSU who beat Tennessee etc. If you look at those 5 teams all but two of their losses came against the other 4 teams.

NFL week 12 picks

Week 12 in the NFL is here - here are the picks as usual in all their imfamous glory (hey, when you are less than .500 you can't be famous).

Update: So far 6 and 5 for the day with the Colts winning by 20. Need the colts and Monday night to break even for the week.

NFL Week 12

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
Miami	- 2 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	Mia 27 - Det 10
Dallas	- 10 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Dal 38 - TB 10
Denver	- 1 1/2	Kansas City	Denver	Kansas City	Den 10 - KC 19
St. Louis	- 5 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	St. Louis	STL 20 - SF 17
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	Arizona	Minnesota	Arizona	Min 31 - AZ 26
Carolina	- 4 1/2	Washington	Carolina	Carolina	Car 13 - Was 17
Cincinnati	- 3 1/2	Cleveland	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cin 30 - Cle 0
NY Jets	- 5 1/2	Houston	NY Jets	NY Jets	NY J 25 - Hou 11
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	Buffalo	Jacksonville	Buffalo	Jac 24 - Buf 27
Atlanta	- 3 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	Atlanta	Atl 13 - NO 31
Baltimore	- 2 1/2	Pittsburgh	Baltimore	Baltimore	Bal 27 - Pit 0
San Diego	- 13 1/2	Oakland	San Diego	San Diego	SD 21 - Oak 14
NY Giants	- 3 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	NY Giants	NYG 21 - Ten 24
New England	- 3 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago	NE 17 - Chi 13
Indianapolis	- 9 1/2	Philadelphia	Indianapolis	Philadelphia	Ind 45 - Phi 21
Seattle	- 10 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	Seattle	Sea 34 - GB 24

Well after the Thanksgiving day games I already have lost 3 games. Not looking good this week, but if I put on my rose colored glasses I see the possibility of going 13 and 3 for the week, yea right. Oh well, here are my reasons for my picks this week:

St. Louis vs San Francisco - I am trying to understand this game, the Rams are in the middle of a 5 game losing streak but are favored by 5 1/2 points over a 49er team that has won 3 straight. I won’t even consider this an upset when the 49er’s win outright 28 – 24.

Minnesota vs Arizona – Two struggling teams playing each other, with not much to recommend either one over the other team. Sticking with the Vikings who at least cover 50% of the time over a Cardinal team that is horrible on the road, Vikings 21 – Arizona 10.

Carolina at Washington – No late season magic by Gibbs, proves that you can’t go home again. I look for the Skins to continue their slide into oblivion this week with Carolina winning 28 – 13.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – Cincinnati looks to sweep the Browns for the second year in a row. Bengals 35 – Browns 17.

NY Jets vs Houston – The up and down Jets will be up this week and licking their chops at facing an inept Texan team. Jets 31 – Texans 14.

Jacksonville at Buffalo – Both teams are looking to prove themselves. The Jaguars are looking to prove that they deserve a Wild Card berth while the Bills are looking to prove they are a team on the rise. I expect a tight game throughout with the Jags winning 17 – 13.

Atlanta vs New Orleans – This is a game that I keep on going back and forth on, right now I feel like New Orleans will sweep the Falcons. Too close to call in a game that should be close.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh – Hmm, since Belick fired his offensive coordinator the Ravens are like unbeatable. A close game but look for both teams to depend on the running game and defense with the Ravens winning 17 – 14.

San Diego vs Oakland – This is a division rivalry game against a team that is 8 and 2 versus a team that is 2 and 8, perfect upset conditions but I just don’t see that happening. Chargers 30 – Oakland 14.

NY Giants at Tennessee – two teams that seem to be going in different directions. Ever since the Titans switched to Young as their starting QB they have been competitive, meanwhile Eli seems to be regressing in his progress as a top flight QB. Look for Tennessee to pull this game out late 21 – 20.

New England vs Chicago – Patriots are a 3 ½ point favorite? At home? While I expect the Patriots to win, the Bears will keep it close. Patriots 14 – Bears 13.

Indianapolis vs Philadelphia – Another game that I am waffling on, I just don’t trust the Colts all the time against teams they should beat handily (see Indy vs Tenn.). Still, I think the loss of McNabb is just too much for the Eagles to overcome. Colts 35 – Eagles 17.

Seattle vs Green Bay – Only 7 teams have a worse record against the spread than Green Bay, guess which one is the 7th. Yep, that’s right its Seattle. Seahawks 24 – Packers 17.

Houston we have a problem

Four freaking years in a row, four years in a row the Razorbacks have lost to the Tigers (recap). Houston, I like you but you have got to start winning the big ones, instead of losing games like today's. It would be nice if someone explained to me why Dick is starting instead of Mustain. I know that Mustain is a freshman, but 3 for 17 and most of those incompletions weren't even close to being caught.

Next game for the Hogs will be the SEC championship game, which Arkansas will need to win in order to guarantee a BCS game.

College Picks Week 13

Well its coming down to crunch time in the college football season, presently my razorbacks are losing to LSU 17 - 12. Breaking news is that the Miami Hurricanes have fired Larry Corker which shouldn't surprise anybody after the brawl, the arrests, the death of a player and other extra distractions for the Canes this year. Of course going 6 and 6 had a lot to do with it also.

Still here are my college football picks this week:

College Football Week 13

Away	Conf	Home	Pick	Result
Florida	1	Florida St.	Florida	Fla 21 - FSU 14
Louisville	10	Pittsburgh	Louisville	Lou 48 - Pitt 24
Virginia	3	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	Va 0 - VT 17
South Carolina	4	Clemson	Clemson	S.C. 31 - Clem 28
North Carolina	8	Duke	North Carolina	UNC 45 - Duke 44
Mississippi St.	6	Mississippi	Mississippi	Miss St. 17 - Miss. 20
Georgia Tech	7	Georgia	Georgia Tech	GT 12 - Ga15
Arizona St.	5	Arizona	Arizona	Az St. 28 - Az. 14
East Carolina	9	North Carolina St.	East Carolina	E. Car. 21 - N.C. St. 16
Notre Dame	2	USC	USC	ND 24 - USC 44

Have a good day my friends

Turkey day is over

Well, the razorbacks won against S. Illinois in basketball, the Cowboys romped over the Buccaneers and I just watched the Chiefs destroy the Bronco's. Of course, that made me 0 and 3 on todays games. Ugly, Ugly, and Ugly. Well, off to bed, hope you had a good Turkey Day.

Revisting Win Shares

Previously we discussed win budgeting for the Red Sox here, in this post I want to revisit that concept now that we are seeing some movement in the free agent market. I hope that Theo has Loretta in his back pocket, because I don't think that we will be able to sign Lugo (I expect the Mets to sign him and move him to second). I also don't think that Manny will get traded since the teams that should be interested in him are going out of their minds overpaying the Gary Mathews etc.

The following are players I am expecting to be on the field opening day:

Win Shares

Pos.	Player	W.S.	Pitchers	Player	W.S.
C	Varitek	8	SP	Schilling	16
1b	Youkilis	22	SP	Beckett	12
2b	Loretta	16	SP	Wakefield	7
3b	Lowell	18	SP	Papelbon
SS	Pedroia	0	SP	Matsuka
LF	Rameriz	29	RP	Timlin	6
CF	Crisp	10	RP	Tavarez	6
RF	Drew	22	RP	DelCarmen	3
DH	Ortiz	29
1 / 3b	Hinske	7	RP	Unknown
2b / ss	Cora	5	RP	Unknown
OF	Wily Mo	8	RP	Unknown
C	??		RP	Unknown
	Totals	174			50

For a 95 win season we would need 285 Win Shares. Presently we have 224, however there are some good news.

1. Pedroia we have as a big fat 0, relistically if we look at the top 33 SS's last year we have a range of 33 (Jeter) to 5 (Barmes), if average those we will get a 14.8 w.s. per player. This is just over what Gonzalez and Cora gave us at ss last year. Lets be conservative and give him 12.
2. Papelbon and Matsuka are both at zero. Is there any doubt that both will be at least as good as Beckett. That gives us another 24. We are now at 260.
3. Wakefield will be better
4. Coco will not miss 40 some odd games

So, what we need assuming we get J.D. Drew are 4 more pitchers and a back up catcher. If we just average 5 w.s. per player the Sox would be at 285 giving us the 95 wins.

Probable Line ups

Looking at probable runs per game at the baseball musings I came up with the following based on what is now looking like a bad off season of signings for the Sox:

Crisp CF
Loretta 2b
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Drew RF
Youkilis 1b
Lowell 3b
Varitek C
Pedroia SS

This line up using the 2006 OBA and Slugging has probable runs per game of 5.81. I could live with that from an offensive point of view.

That Was MMMM MMMM Good

How good is the better half, well, the bird was done just as half time arrived of the Detroit - Miami game. The only thing that would have been better is if the Razorbacks had finished their game in regulation. As it was I had to put off eating for an extra 5 minutes of game time.

As for the Lions game, I told you I should have done a Castanza!

Thanks

Giving thanks to those who serve:

Ground Pounders

The Sea (yea Boy)

Fly Boys

The Few, The Proud

Thanks
And from Australia:

Beccy Cole

Thanksgiving picks

Well, 8 and 8 again last week on the old pigskin picks. Looks like I will end up owing money at the end of the season. Well, what can I say its not like I actually expected to win anything, that said here are my picks for 11/23.

Miami at Detroit -2.5. I look for Detroit to win, of course I should probably pull a Castanza since I don't think I have picked correctly any Detroit game all season. Still, I expect a game like Miami 20 Detroit 21.

Dallas vs Tampa Bay -10.5 Romo leads Cowboys to another victory, still, I have no faith in the Cowboys in covering big spreads, so taking the Bucs expecting a 31 to 24 win.

Denver at KC -1.5, Denver romps going away.

NFL week 11 picks

Update: Dallas wins it late, yea boy, making them 6 and 4 and with the Eagles and Skins losing gained a little bit of breathing room. Now if only the Jints would lose. Also the Cowboys win meant I can go no less than 8 and 8.

Week 11 of the nfl season is here, and its time to make our picks. Are you ready for some football?

NFL Week 11

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick	Madden 07	Result
New Orleans	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	New Orleans	Cincinatti	Cin 31 - NO 16
Houston	- 2 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo	Hou 21 - Buf 24
New England	- 5 1/2	Green Bay	New England	Green Bay	NE 35 - GB 0
Kansas City	- 9 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland	KC 17 - Oak 13
Baltimore	- 4 1/2	Atlanta	Atlanta	Baltimore	Bal 24 - Atl 10
Chicago	- 6 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	Chicago	Chi 10 - NY J 0
Pittsburgh	- 3 1/2	Cleveland	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pitt 24 - Cle 20
Carolina	- 6 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	St. Louis	Car 15 - STL 0
Philadelphia	- 13 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee	Phi 13 - Ten 31
Tampa Bay	- 2 1/2	Washington	Washington	Tampa Bay	TB 20 - Was 17
Miami	- 3 1/2	Minnesota	Miami	Miami	Mia 24 - Min 20
Seattle	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco	Sea 14 - SF 20
Arizona	- 2 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit	Ariz 17 - Det 10
Indianapolis	- 1 1/2	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas	Ind 14 - Dal 21
Denver	- 2 1/2	San Diego	Denver	Denver	Den 27 - SD 35
Jacksonville	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	NY Giants	NY Giants	Jac 26 - NY G 10

More later on why I picked and which dogs win outright.
Update: here we go, my inane reasons for who I picked.

New Orleans vs Cincinnati - New Orleans is at home, a better team and they usually cover the spread. Madden 07 simulation - Cincy 31 and Saints 24.

Houston vs Buffalo - Houston has won their 3 games for this year. Buffalo wins outright in this contest. Madden 07 simulation - Bills 26 - Texans 20.

New England at Green Bay - Patriots are almost unbeatable on the road covering 75 % of the time. Madden 07 simulation Pats 28 - Packers 25.

Kansas City vs Oakland - KC is good but I don't think they are more than a touchdown better than the Raiders. Madden 07 simulation KC 31 - Oakland 24.

Baltimore vs Atlanta - Atlanta has played two horrible games in a row, they won't play 3. Madden 07 simulation Ravens 31 - Falcons 24.

Chicago at NY Jets - Chicago is fairly good but the Jets defense is better than we think, look for Chicago to win by 3. Madden 07 simulation Bears 24 - Jets 13.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Steelers on a mini roll, Browns absolutely suck this year, look for a blow out by the Steelers. Madden 07 simulation Steelers 37 - Browns 30.

Carolina vs St. Louis - Both teams in a must win situation, Panthers win 31 - 28. Madden 07 simulation Panthers 16 - Rams 10.

Philadelphia vs Tennessee - since the Titans switched to Vince Young at QB all of pretty much all of their games are competitive. Madden 07 simulation Eagles 24 - Titans 13.

Tampa Bay vs Washington - TB is beat up, Redskins benced Brunnel, just too much for Bucs to handle, Redskins by 10. Madden 07 simulation Buccaneers 26 - Redskins 19.

Miami vs Minnesota - ever since the Vikings lost to the Patriots they have went into a second half slide, Miami wins by 10. Madden 07 simulation Dolphins 31 - Vikings 24.

Seattle at San Francisco - Seattle gets everybody back which leads to rust showing, a defensive battle won by Seattle 13 - 10. Madden 07 simulation Seahawks 27 - 49ers 24.

Arizona vs Detroit - Arizona is who we thought they were, a team led by a rookie QB, no defense, bad coaching etc. Detroit pulls the upset 14 - 13. Madden 07 simulation Lions 31 - Cardinals 19.

Indianapolis at Dallas - Colts suck against the run, the Cowboys are giving up too many big passing plays, logically you would say its a shoot out. Look for Parcells to play the Giants vs Bills super bowl plan, pound, pound, pound the run up the middle and win the possesion game. Cowboys win outright 21 - 17. Madden 07 simulation Cowboys 27 - Colts 24.

Denver vs San Diego - Shottenheimer is 3 and 13 and Denver, need I say more? Broncos win on a late field goal 24 to 21. Madden 07 simulation Broncos 27 - Chargers 24.

Jacksonville vs NY Giants - Jaguars are desperate, Giants are beaten up, both teams play close to the vest with the Jags winning 17 to 14. Madden 07 simulation Giants 20 - Jags 16.

See you later my friends.

College football week 12 recap

Was able to watch the entire Ohio State - Michigan game, some quick thoughts:

1. After Ohio State scored their first 3 touchdowns I thought they were never in trouble.
2. Michigan's defense failed to show up and play
3. Bo and Woody would have cringed each possession, I can not recall a match up between these two teams that featured the passing game
4. I agree with Flutie - Michigan had their chance and if USC wins out or Florida wins out then it should be one of those two teams to meet OSU in the championship.
   

The best teams in the nation (thank you Cincinnati Bearcats) are as follows:

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. Arkansas
6. Texas
7. Louisville
8. Tennessee
9. LSU
10. California
    

Of course that is just my opinion, but you know what they say!

Michigan at Ohio State

UPDATE:
Game over OSU wins by 4, not the defensive struggle that I thought it would be. We will next see OSU in the BCS championship game. Troy Smith becomes only the second QB from Ohio State to beat Michigan 3 times in his career.

Michigan started the game by scoring a quick touchdown which was quickly followed by OSU taking it to the wolverines for 3 unanswered scores. I thought these were supposed to be two pretty good defensive teams. Not looking that way right now as it's 28 - 14 OSU at the half. Woody must be spinning in his grave watching the buckeyes throwing the ball around like its a hot potato.

Still a pretty good game going on you just have wonder if the Wolverines will be able to make any adjustments at the Half.

College Football picks week 12

Its saturday and that means college football, yea boy!!!! Big game today, you may have heard of it, seems there are two teams that are undefeated and ranked 1 and 2. The winner secures a place in the BCS championship and the loser, well the Rose bowl at worst but maybe a rematch. Could be an interesting couple of weeks.

Week 12 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Michigan State	8	Penn State	Penn State	W
Indiana	7	Purdue	Purdue	W
Illinois	3	Northwestern	Illinois	L
Virginia Tech	4	Wake Forest	Wake Forest	L
Maryland	5	Boston College	Boston College	W
Auburn	9	Alabama	Auburn	W
Washington	6	Washington St.	Washington St.	L
Utah	2	Air Force	Utah	W
California	10	USC	USC	W
Michigan	1	Ohio State	Michigan	L

I really look for the Michigan - Ohio State game to be a nail biter, I think both teams are evenly matched. My prediction is Michigan 21 - OSU 20.

Look for Auburn to seal Shula's firing at the end of the Year. I just don't see the tigers losing 2 in a row. The rest are pretty much in line with the favorites.

Of course there is one other big game today, Arkansas has a chance to clinch their division in the SEC. Go hogs.

Simmons dumps Doc

Read this yesterday and forgot to post about it. Typical Simmons column but the timing as usual meant that of course the Celtics would go out and trash the Pacers. Can you write more of these type of columns with those results please?

Renteria vs Cabrera

WEEI (actually its Glenn "fat b******" Ordway most of the time), has been beating up on Theo the last couple of days. One of the common gripes they have is that Theo totally blew the Renteria signing, he didn't do his homework yada yada yada. Well, I went to the Day by Day database at Baseball Musings and pulled up their career numbers.

There are a couple of things that I remember before the Renteria signing:

1. Cabrera kept on saying that he wanted Renteria money
2. Renteria was the top rated shortstop on the open market
3. The fans wanted Orlando to stay
4. Renteria was the gold glove shortstop of the NL.

So, lets take a look at their numbers when you compare them side by side:

Renteria vs Cabrera 1st 3 years of their careers

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	1996 - 98	.288	381	1565	237	450	57	8	12	114	126	254
Cabrera	1999-2001	.259	378	1430	159	370	89	12	35	190	86	120

Renteria had a BA 20 points higher, scored 1/3 more runs, had 80 more hits and 40 more walks. Cabrera was only better in the power numbers and his strike out rate was lower.

Now lets look at the 5 years immediately before the signing.

Renteria vs Cabrera 2000 - 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	00 - 04	.293	727	2772	405	812	171	7	60	388	255	339
Cabrera	00 - 04	.270	746	2855	344	770	194	13	61	349	207	253

Again we see higher batting average, runs hits, RBI and walks. Cabrera did better on the power numbers (except HR's). The only area that Orlando really beat Edgar was in the strike outs. If I am Theo and I have a player who is demanding Renteria number but isn't putting up Renteria numbers, don't I go for Renteria? Why, settle for second when you can have 1st?

So, so far I haven't seen anything that makes me want Orlando over Renteria. So, let's look at their 2004 numbers, maybe we'll find something there?

Renteria vs Cabrera 2004

Player	Year(s)	B. Avg.	G. Started	AB	Runs	Hits	2b	3b	hr	RBI	BB	K's
Renteria	2004	.287	148	586	84	168	37	0	10	72	39	78
Cabrera	2004	.264	158	618	74	163	38	3	10	62	39	54

Well, no luck there as Edgar has the higher average, more runs, more hits, almost even in doubles, same number of home runs and walks, but has more RBI's. Now if you look at these numbers really hard, it even appears that this is a normal type of year for Renteria.

To sum up my feelings, Theo would have been foolish to have not gone after Edgar. 20 / 20 hindsight showed that Edgar couldn't handle the Boston pressure but you couldn't have been sure of that before hand. So, drop this Renteria crap, Theo made a decision based on good solid reasoning and I am tired of hearing how he screwed up by not going after Orlando.

Nfl week 10 and NCAA week 11 recaps.

So, went 8 and 8 this week in the nfl and 6 and 4 on the college games, not great but did improve my ego. The 8 and 8 also moved me up into the 82 percentile. Obviously, not a lot of people are making money off of their ESPN picks.

NCAA is really starting to get interesting. If the Razorbacks win on saturday they will face Florida in the SEC championship game. Would like to see them settle this saturday so that I don't have to sweat out the LSU game.

Matsuzaka watch is now 2 hours and 45 minutes. tick, tick, tick.

Matsuzaka watch continues

Wish I knew the code for a countdown clock. Any hints out there people? Well, it's just past 23:00 here on the east coast, which means less than 21 hours for the suspense to be over with as far as our favorite Japanese pitcher.

You can always pass the time by looking at the different sides of Mt. Fuji.

Even Madden 07 is confused

Well, after the first 14 games I am 7 and 7, which is a vast improvement over last weeks three wins. Those of you who have been following my meager efforts this year probably noticed that I added the Madden 07 results which I got from ESPN.com. Well, this week he went 7 and 7 also so this game simulation was no better than I was this week.

Of course I will take 7 and 7 since I lost the first 4 games this week. So, bringing out the rose colored glasses I prefer to think that I went 7 and 3 when the going got rough.

Razorbacks move into the top 5

I felt confident that with 4 of the top 10 losing this week that Arkansas would move into the top 8 and I was right. Todays poll have the razorbacks at their highest since 1988 as they jump six spots to number 5, right behind USC. Yeah boy!!!!

NFL week 10

Well through week 9 after winning only 3 games last week my record is 62 and 66. Its funny how I have a losing record but in the Pigskin Pick'em contest at ESPN.com I am in the 76 percentile with 21,839 ahead of me. 8 weeks where I go 10 and 6 or better would probably move me into the 90 percentile.

To the picks:

Week 10 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result	W / L
Minnesota	- 5 1/2	Green Bay	Minnesota	Min 17 - GB 23	L
Baltimore	- 7 1/2	Tennessee	Baltimore	Bal 27 - Tenn 26	L
Jacksonville	- 10 1/2	Houston	Jacksonville	Jax 10 - Hou 13	L
Kansas City	- 1 1/2	Miami	Kansas City	KC 10 - Mia 13	L
New England	- 10 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	NE 14 - NYJ 17	W
San Diego	- 1 1/2	Cincinnati	San Diego	SD 49 - Cin 41	W
Detroit	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Detroit	Det 13 - SF 19	L
Philadelphia	- 6 1/2	Washington	Philadelphia	Phi 27 - Was 3	W
Indianapolis	- 12 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo	Ind 17 - Buf 16	W
Atlanta	- 7 1/2	Cleveland	Atlanta	Atl 13 - Cle 17	L
Denver	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Den 17 - Oak 13	W
Pittsburgh	- 4 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	Pit 38 - NO 31	L
Seattle	- 4 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis	Sea 24 - STL 22	W
NY Giants	- 2 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	NYG 20 - Chi 20	W
Carolina	- 9 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Monday	Night
Dallas	- 6 1/2	Arizona	Dallas	Dal 27 - Arz 10	W

Minn vs Green Bay - Minnesota at home and Green Bay is struggling. Madden 07 has GB winning outright.

Baltimore at Tennessee - In games Baltimore is favored by 7 or greater the Ravens have covered every time. Madden 07 picks Tenn.

Jacksonville vs Houston - Jacksonville is one of those teams that drives me nuts. Madden 07 - Jacksonville.

Kansas City at Miami - KC is on a roll and playing within itself. Madden 07 - Miami wins outright.

NY Jets at New England - Patriots have not covered a game at home yet. Madden 07 - New England.

San Diego at Cincinnati - Cincinnati is struggling and San Diego plays ball control. Madden 07 - Cincinnati wins.

Detroit vs San Francisco - Detroit is also playing better than expected. 3/4 times they cover at home and San Francisco is horrible. Madden 07 - San Fran covers.

Philadelphia vs Washington - Division rivals and I just don't see the Eagles losing again, in fact I expect a 10 point win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Indianapolis vs Buffalo - Double point spreads Indy struggles, plus their defense is terrible. Another shoot out won by the Colts. Madden 07 - Colts cover easily.

Atlanta vs Cleveland - Atlanta at home favored greater than 7 points has covered every time. Another blow out win. Madden 07 - agrees.

Denver at Oakland - Division rival (hated division rivals), Plummer still struggling. Oakland covers the spread.

Pittsburgh vs New Orleans - how can a 2 and 6 team be favored over the 6 and 2 team. New Orleans wins outright. Madden 07 - 1 point loss by the Saints.

Seattle vs St. Louis - first game was a 3 pointer won by Seahawks. These two teams usually split, look for that to continue. St. Louis outright. Madden 07 - Seahawks cover.

NY Giants vs Chicago - to much yapping this week out of New York. I expect the Bears to come roaring out the gate and win going away. Madden 07 - 3 point win by the Giants.

Carolina vs Tampa Bay - Carolina hasn't covered at home all year and haven't covered when favored over 7. Tampa Bay stays within a touchdown. Madden 07 - Carolina covers easily.

Dallas at Arizona - former rivals, Dallas covers on the road 40 % of the time but Arizona is still in a free fall. Madden 07 - Dallas in a rout.

1 more win needed

Well, Arkansas held on to win 31 to 14. Only 1 more win needed to make the championship game. Game Stats below:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	17	20
Total Yards	268	426
Passing	172	168
Rushing	96	258
Possession	28:05	31:55

Since Louisville, California and Auburn lost earlier, I definetly think this game will put the hogs in the top 8 in the next polls.

Veterans Day

Being a veteran, I would like to say thanks to all those who are serving overseas now and have served in the past. To those on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, keep your wits about you and continue to do what you do with pride and honor. God bless you all.

Arkansas - Tennessee at the Half

Tennessee 7
Arkansas 28

Razorbacks looking sharp but I remember the Tennessee - Georgia game earlier this year where Tennessee looked like a sure loser only to come roaring back after the half to win the game 51 to 33. The Volunteers have an explosive offense that can roll up the points. So, I am not breathing easy yet.

Half Time Stats:

Stat	Tennessee	Arkansas
1st Downs	9	11
Total Yards	121	266
Passing	64	86
Rushing	57	180
Penlties	4 - 20	1 - 15
Possession	14:59	15:01

Pretty much domination up and down the stats. Lets go Hogs.

Beta Blogger

Got tired of seeing the blogger message begging me to switch to Beta. Switched earlier today and as you may have noticed I also changed the lay out of the blog. Am not sure that beta is better, but it seems to be working fairly well. What is nice is the publishing is so much quicker than before.

I also like the labels for different categories. Makes it a lot easier for me to find previous posts for reference reasons. I will have to think about the programming part of the beta, since I had made changes to the template on the old system. It appears that I have to look at the Java programming to also try and get cute with this template.

Initial thoughts? hmmm, will wait and see.

Tennessee at Arkansas

Make no doubt about it, today's game just got a little bit more important for the Hogs. As we speak, Florida is losing to South Carolina and Auburn got destroyed by Georgia.

The Razorbacks need to win 2 of their next 3 games to advance to the SEC championship game against Florida. A win tonight though would probably mean that they would jump up in the polls with losses already this week by #3 Louisville and #5 Auburn (already defeated by Arkansas). If South Carolina was to hold on and beat #4 Florida, then the #11 Razorbacks could leap all the way to 7 in the country.

Update: Florida just moved in front 17 - 16

Update II: Florida holds on for a 17 - 16 win.

Feeling blue?

While waiting for the game to start (t-119 mintes), decided to cruise by Scot Adams Dilbert Blog. It is always good to have a little bit of humor each day, and this is one of those blogs that always brngs a smile to my face. I especially liked his final words on his to tip or not to tip post.

Why can’t I be afraid of something normal, like North Korea?

College Football picks week 11

Well week 11 of the college games is here. Last week was able to go 7 and 3, bringing my yearly total for this contest to 77 and 23.

Time for my picks:

Week 11 Picks

VISITORS	CONF.	HOME	PROJ. WINNER	Result
Wisconsin	5	Iowa	Wisconsin	Win
North Carolia State	6	Clemson	Clemson	Win
Minnesota	3	Michigan St.	Minnesota	Win
Georgia	4	Auburn	Auburn	Loss
South Carolina	2	Florida	Florida	Win
Pittsburgh	7	Connecticut	Pittsburgh	Loss (ot)
Nebraska	8	Texas A & M	Texas A & M	Loss
Alabama	9	LSU	LSU	Win
Oregon	10	USC	USC	Win
Tennesse	1	Arkansas	Tennesse	Loss

Should be some good games today, with a heavy impact on BCS matchups, ones to closely watch are the Wisconsin - Iowa, the Tennessee - Arkansas game is usually pretty good and the hogs need to win to continue to have control of their own destiny.

Simmons sums up the Celtics

The closing quote from Simmons latest NBA column:

(That's right: The same guy who once joked that NBA Entertainment should release a "Rick Adelman's Greatest Playoff Collapses" DVD is now pushing for Adelman to coach his favorite team. And you thought Gilbert Arenas and Kobe were the only ones who were crazy.)

sounds about right to me also.

Win Budgeting?

An interesting post about having a team budget their salary around expected wins (h/t baseball musings). Personally, I disagree about his start point for the figures (54 wins, 54 losses and the rest depends on the players), but I like the 2 million per win figure.

Now, if we were to follow the reasoning laid out by U.S.S. Mariner, then a logical process for Theo would be to figure up the teams present win shares, then subtract them from the goal of 95 wins. Using the 2 million per win he could then base his free agent acquisitions etc to build a team. Will have to think about this but I think that Dave is right in his reasoning and this could be an interesting way to follow the trades this year.

Just a real quick look at the present starters, remembering that 95 wins equals a total of 285 win shares:

Pos.	Player	06 WS
1b	Youkilis	22
2b	Loretta	16
3b	Lowell	18
C	Varitek	8
DH	Ortiz	29
LF	Ramirez	29
CF	Crisp	10
RF	Pena	8
SP	Schilling	16
SP	Beckett	12
SP	Wakefield	7

These 12 players total 175 win shares, which would leave them 110 shares short. The question is how good do we expect Papelbon to be as a starter. I would put him in the Beckett category and for rounding sakes will say 10. Wakefield has had 8 shares, 16 shares and 7 shares the last three years. So let us put him at 10 also, this now leaves us 97 short.

Tavarez has averaged 6 the last 3 years, Timlin has averaged 8 in the same time period but 2005 he spent the last 2 months as the closer so lets go with 6 for him in our computations. DeLcarmen had 1 in 05 and 3 in 06. Will he improve? I say yes so let's go for 5. These 3 will leave us 80 short with a total of 16 of our 25 man squad supplying points.

As you can see we can easily reach that win share total of 285 needed for 95 wins without really killing the payroll. From now on, I think that I will use the Win Shares for my basis on approving or hissing future moves made by Theo this year.

All win share information found at The Hardball Times.

college wrap up week 10

Pretty good week on the College front as I went 7 and 3. Best of all though was the game.

NFL 9 - UGLY

Will update throughout the day

Week 9 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Result
St. Louis	- 2 1/2	Kansas City	St. Louis	KC 31 - STL 17 (L)
Chicago	- 13 1/2	Miami	Chicago	MIA 31 - Chi 13 (L)
New Orleans	- 1 1/2	Tampa Bay	New Orleans	NO 31 - TB 14 (W)
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	Jax 37 - Tenn. 7 (L)
Atlanta	- 5 1/2	Detroit	Atlanta	Det 30 - Atl. 14 (L)
Baltimore	- 3 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Bal 26 - Cin 20 (L)
Dallas	- 3 1/2	Washington	Dallas	Was 22 - Dal 19 (L)
Buffalo	- 3 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	Buf 24 - GB 10 (L)
NY Giants	- 13 1/2	Houston	NY Giants	NY 14 - Hou 10 (L)
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Minnesota	SF 9 - Min 3 (L)
San Diego	- 12 1/2	Cleveland	San Diego	SD 32 - Cle 25 (L)
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Denver	Denver	Den 31 - Pit 20 (W)
New England	- 2 1/2	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	Ind 27 - NE 20 (W)
Seattle	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland	Sea 16 - Oak 0 (L)

The best that I can do this week is (at 8:00 EST) 4 and 10. FUGLY