NFL 2008 Championship Games

Philadelphia at Arizona (-1) - Philly has been playing like a beast, but so has Arizona. Taking the Cardinals and the home field.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (1.5) - Pittsburgh wins a tight one at home.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Divison Play Off Games

Well, last week we went a familar .500, 2-2. So like always hoping to do better!!!

Baltimore at Tennessee (-1) - This will be a good matchup and though I love Baltimore's defense you have a rookie coach, a rookie QB and you are on the road. Close game with Tennessee winning 21-17. Madden 09 has Ravens by 6.

Arizona at Carolina (6) - The magical mystery tour ends for the Cardinals, but it takes a late FG by the Panthers to win 21-18.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (2) - Giants will be ready and the snow makes it a low scoring game. NY 12-7.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (2.5) - Rivers will play good but it won't be enough as the Steelers win this game 21-14.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Wild Card Games - Jan 3 & 4 of 2009

Real quick, my thoughts on the games this weekend.

Atlanta at Arizona - Atlanta is favored by 2, but is only 4-4 on the Road this year and Arizona was 6-2 at home. Arizona wins by a field goal.

Baltimore at Miami - Baltimore is a 2 point favorite. Take the Ravens, come play off time always take the defense.

Indianapolis at San Diego - Indianapolis is favored by 3, and I say that is to low of a number, Colts win going away.

Philadelphia at Minnesota - Philly favored by 3, but look for the Vikings to break their play off losing streak against the eagles. Minnesota edges the Eagles 10-9.

NFL 2008 Week 17 Preview

Well week sixteen has came and went and PLLS went 8-8 for the week and now 133-107 for the year. So once again we are looking to do better this week!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week seventeen of the 2008 season.

Week 17 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Atlanta	-14.5	St. Louis	Atlanta	STL 20-10
NE Patriots	-6.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	NE 30-15
Cincinnati	-2.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	Cin 17-12
Green Bay	-10.5	Detroit	Detroit	GB 26-20
Tennessee	-3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	Ind 26-16
Minnesota	-6.5	NY Giants	Minnesota	NY 32-29
Carolina	-3.5	New Orleans	New Orleans	Car 23-20
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Pit 24-12
Tampa Bay	-13.5	Oakland	Oakland	TB 27-14
Houston	-3.5	Chicago	Chicago	Hou 26-13
Baltimore	-12.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 24-21
San Fran	-3.5	Washington	Washington	SF 23-19
NY Jets	-2.5	Miami	NY Jets	Mia 24-20
Philadelphia	-1.5	Dallas	Philly	Dal 20-13
Arizona	-5.5	Seattle	Arizona	AZ 16-10
San Diego	-8.5	Denver	SD	SD 27-22

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - St. Louis at Atlanta (14-5) - Atlanta is 6-1 ATS at home, St. Louis 2-5. ATL is averaging 29.43 APG at home, St. Louis 11.43 on the road. Atlanta is playing for a possible first round bye STL is making golf plans.

❄ - NE Patriots at Buffalo (-6.5) - NE is 5-2 ATS on the road but is only 2-1 ATS as Road Favorites, the two covers against Oakland and San Fran. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS at home but this is the first time all year they are Home Dogs. NE wins but Buffalo covers.

❄ - Kansas City at Cincinnati (2.5) - Cincy is 4-3 ATS at home but has a 12.29 APG while KC has been road warriors all year going 5-2 ATS.

❄ - Detroit at Green Bay (10.5) - Green Bay has yet to cover any game over 5.5 points at home this year. Detroit is 5-2 ATS on the road.

❄ - Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3.5) - Two teams with nothing to play for but pride, taking the home team.

❄ - NY Giants at Minnesota (6.5) - NY is set, Minnesota is fighting for the play offs. More desperate team wins.

❄ - Carolina at New Orleans (-3.5) - New Orleans is 6-1 at home and 6-1 ATS at home. Carolina is 3-4 ATS and 3-4 on the road. Enough said.

❄ - Cleveland at Pittsburgh (10.5) - Cleveland is 4-3 ATS on the road and Pit is 3-4 ATS at home. Neither team has anything to play for but Cleveland is playing for pride.

❄ - Oakland at Tampa Bay (13.5) - Tampa Bay has yet to cover any game at home over 8.5 points. That trend continues.

❄ - Chicago at Houston (3.5) - Houston is 5-2 at home while Chicago is only 3-4 on the road, the Bears do better versus the spread but Houston is playing for its first non-losing season ever and is playing at home (did I mention that?).

❄ - Miami at NY Jets (2.5) - Miami does better on the road ATS (5-2) than the Jets do at home ATS (3-4) but NY is 5-2 at home this year only losing to the Pats and Denver. Look for that to continue this Sunday.

❄ - Dallas at Philadelphia (1.5) - All the marbles on the line for the Cowboys, so of course Philadelphia will win the game. I HAVE NO FAITH IN ROMO OR T.O. OR BARBER AND MOST OF ALL IN WADE PHILLIPS.

❄ - Jacksonville at Baltimore (12.5) - Baltimore is 6-1 ATS at home, Jacksonville 3-4 ATS on the road Baltimore will be playing to protect players, Jacksonville sucks. Taking the Jaguars because the Ravens are only scoring 21.86 APG at home while Jacksonville scores 20.14 APG on the road.

❄ - Washington at San Francisco (3.5) - SF is 3-4 ATS at home, Washington is 3-4 ATS on the road. While I think Singletary has the 49ers playing with passion and pride, the Redskins are playing to end up over .500. Upset special as the Redskins beat the 49ers.

❄ - Seattle at Arizona (5.5) - See the argument for the Skins above and add the fact that Arizona is 4-3 ATS at home.

❄ - Denver at San Diego (8.5) - Revenge time for the Chargers as they blow out the Broncos and avenge their earlier, controversial loss at Denver. Chargers make the play offs at 8-8.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

Merry Christmas in 2008

Merry Christmas and because nothing really ever changes at the s1c household (this years tree is like every tree every year).





oh, yeah, Scott Boras is well the bird of prey.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Preview

Well week fifteen was another loser. 7-9 for the week and now 125-99 for the year. So once again we are looking to do better this week!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week sixteen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Indianapolis	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 24-21
Dallas	-4.5	Baltimore	Dallas	Dal 21-14
Cleveland	-3.5	Cincinnati	Cleveland	Cle 30-13
New Orleans	-6.5	Detroit	New Orleans	Det 20-17
Pittsburgh	-1.5	Tennessee	Tennessee	Pit 21-7
Miami	-3.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	KC 23-18
San Francisco	-5.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	STL 23-16
NE Patriots	-7.5	Arizona	NE Patriots	NE 21-17
Tampa Bay	-3.5	San Diego	Tampa Bay	TB 32-20
NY Jets	-4.5	Seattle	Seattle	NY 30-20
Houston	-7.5	Oakland	Houston	Hou 27-17
Denver	-6.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	Den 24-10
Philadelphia	-4.5	Washington	Philadelphia	Was 28-26
Minnesota	-3.5	Atlanta	Minnesota	Atl 27-17
NY Giants	-3.5	Carolina	NY Giants	NY 24-16
Chicago	-4.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 24-17

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

 ❄ - Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-6.5) - Well I lost that game as I thought that Jacksonville would stay close, of course that sack at the Colt 7 yard line pretty much sums up the Jaguars season, inexcusable.

 ❄ - Baltimore at Dallas (4.5) - Cowboys more desperate.

 ❄ - Cincinnati at Cleveland (3.5) - ugllly visits ugly. Take the home team

 ❄ - New Orleans at Detroit (-6.5) - Detroit is 1-6 at home ATS while New Orleans is 3-4. Only the second time all year that New Orleans is favored on the road. Look for New Orleans to run up the score here.

 ❄ - Pittsburgh at Tennessee (-1.5) - Both teams are good but I think the Steelers are due for a loss just from the week after week of tough competition. Take the home field advantage.

 ❄ - Miami at Kansas City (-3.5) - KC is 3-3 as a home underdog ATS. Miami is 0-1 as a road favorite. Take the points.

 ❄ - San Francisco at St. Louis (-5.5) - San Francisco is 4-3 ATS on the road which is slightly better than St. Louis's 3-4 ATS at home. Going against the trends here since this is the first time all year that San Fran is a road favorite.

 ❄ - Arizona at NE Patriots (7.5) - hmm, west coast team on the east coast playing a 1:00 p.m. game and oh yeah it will probably be snowing / sleeting / ugly weather at Gillette Stadium. Take the Patriots and give the points.

 ❄ - San Diego at Tampa Bay (3.5) - See above comment minus the weather. Actually Tampa Bay is still playing for the play offs, San Diego is just playing.

 ❄ - NY Jets at Seattle (-4.5) - Last home game for the Holmgren regime in Seattle. Look for the Seahawks to make this a close game.

 ❄ - Houston at Oakland (-7.5) - Houston is playing for their first non-losing season, is 4-3 on the road ATS (as underdogs everyone) but then they are playing the dysfunctional Raiders as in the 1-6 ATS at home Raiders.

 ❄ - Buffalo at Denver (6.5) - Denver is 0-6 ATS as Home Favorites this year. Enough said.

 ❄ - Philadelphia at Washington (-4.5) - Philly is 4-3 ATS on the road and 2-2 as Road Favorites. While not overwhelming numbers they are better than the Redskins 2-5 ATS at home and 0-2 as home underdogs. Oh, yeah, Eagles are still playing for a shot at the play offs, the skins, well, they are setting up their golf plans.

 ❄ - Atlanta at Minnesota (3.5) - Neither team is exceptional in this situation but the Vikings are 3-2 as Home Favorites while the Falcons are 2-4 as Road Underdogs.

 ❄ - Carolina at NY Giants (3.5) - Tough pick here but the Giants are just better in all aspects but most importantly they are 5-0 when favored by 8 points or less at home while the Panthers are 1-3 as road underdogs where the spread is less than 4 points.

 ❄ - Green Bay at Chicago (4.5) - even steven all the way, look for Green Bay to keep it close 21-18 Chicago.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Saturday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week seventeen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Saturday Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Dallas	-4.5	Baltimore	Dallas	Dal 21-14

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Baltimore at Dallas (4.5) - Baltimore has been a covering team most of the year and Dallas barely breaks even, but Dallas is fighting for a playoff spot while Baltimore is less desperate. Going with desperation tonight.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 16 Thursday Night Game

NFL 2008 Week 16 Thursday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week sixteen of the 2008 season.

Week 16 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Indianapolis	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-6.5) - Indianapolis is 4-3 ATS on the road but has yet to cover when they are greater than 4 point favorites. Also, big time injuries on the Colts. So, even though Jacksonville has only covered once at home all year, I'm going with the Jags.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 15 Preview

Well, last week was abysmal, actually beyond abysmal, 5-11 for the week and now 118-90 through week 14. Looking to do better this week, of course it would pretty hard to do worse!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week fifteen of the 2008 season.

Week 15 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Chicago	-2.5	New Orleans	Chicago	NO 27-21
Atlanta	-2.5	Tampa Bay	Atlanta	TB 23-17
Washington	-6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Was 24-23
Indianapolis	-16.5	Detroit	Detroit	Ind 34-16
San Diego	-5.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	SD 29-14
Green Bay	-1.5	Jacksonville	Green Bay	Jax 38-31
Tennessee	-3.5	Houston	Tennessee	Hou 17-13
Seattle	-3.5	St. Louis	Seattle	STL 28-23
Miami	-6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Mia 17-16
NY Jets	-7.5	Buffalo	NY Jets	NY 24-10
Arizona	-3.5	Minnesota	Arizona	AZ 35-21
Carolina	-7.5	Denver	Denver	Den 21-17
Baltimore	-1.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore	Bal 20-17
NE Patriots	-7.5	Oakland	NE Patriots	NE 35-10
Dallas	-2.5	NY Giants	NY Giants	Dal 23-20
Philadelphia	-14.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Phi 17-13

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - New Orleans at Chicago (2.5) - see what I thought here.
❄ - Tampa Bay at Atlanta (2.5) - Atlanta is 5-1 at home and 5-1 ATS at home. TB 3-4 ATS on the road.
❄ - Washington at Cincinnati (-6.5) - Tough one here, Washington is 3-3 ATS on the road but is only 1-1 ATS as a road Favorite. Cincinnati is just as bad at home 2-4 but is 2-2 as the home dog. Taking Cincy.
❄ - Detroit at Indianapols (16.5) - Detroit is 4-2 on the road ATS, but is 4-0 when the spread is over 8 points. Indy is only 2-4 ATS at home. Take the points, go Lions.
❄ - San Diego at Kansas City (-5.5) - San Diego is 1-5 on the road this year, 2-4 ATS but is on 1-3 ATS as the road Favorite. While KC is usually better ATS on the road, the Chiefs only lost by one in SD. Taking the points.
❄ - Green Bay at Jacksonville (-1.5) - Green Bay is only 2-4 on the road this year but is 4-2 ATS. Jacksonville has yet to cover at home and is 1-5 at home. Going with the team with something on the line here, give the points.
❄ - Tennessee at Houston (-3.5) - Tennessee is 5-1 ATS spread on the road. Houston is 2-4. Give the points
❄ - Seattle at St. Louis (-3.5) - Seattle 3-3 ATS, St. Louis 2-4. This is the first time that Seattle has been favored on the road all year. Seattle killed St. Louis in week 3. Give the points.
❄ - San Francisco at Miami (6.5) - Miami has yet to cover as a favorite. San Francisco is 3-3 ATS on the Road. Going with the 49ers.
❄ - Buffalo at NY Jets (7.5) - Two teams that have been inconsistent all year. Still the Jets pummeled the Bills on the road and I think are set for a huge rebound against a familiar opponent. Both teams are 3-3 ATS in this situation but J-E-T-S.
❄ - Minnesota at Arizona (3.5) - Arizona 4-2 ATS at home, Minnesota 2-5 ATS on the road. Give the points.
❄ - Denver at Carolina (7.5) - Denver is 4-2 ATS on the road, 3-1 as road dogs. Carolina 4-3 ATS at home, looking for Carolina to win, but Denver to cover.
❄ - Pittsburgh at Baltimore (1.5) - This is an even steven game, but looking for pay back for the Ravens. Give the points.
❄ - NE Patriots at Oakland (-7.5) - Oakland has only covered once at home, last week against the Jets. Patriots are better ATS on the road than at home. Take the Pats!!!
❄ - NY Giants at Dallas (2.5) - Dallas 6-5 as Favorites, 3-3 as Home Favorites. Giants are 2-0 as road dogs. Cowboys are more desperate, Giants killed them in week 9. Take the points.
❄ - Cleveland at Philadelphia (14.5) - Both teams are 4-2 ATS in this situation, but Cleveland is 7-3 ATS as Dogs while Philly is only 6-5 as favorites. Taking the points.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 15 Thursday Night Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on this pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for the Thursday night game in this week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 15 Thursday Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Chicago	-2.5	New Orleans	Chicago	NO 27-21

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - New Orleans at Chicago (2.5) - There are some good reasons to pick New Orleans in this game, but I think the following are even more important:

• Chicago is 4-2 at Home while New Orleans is 1-5
• Both teams are 3-3 ATS in this situation but Chicago is 4-3 as a Favorite while New Orleans is only 2-3 as the Underdog
• Chicago is averaging 26.67 points at home while New Orleans is only averaging 22.17 points on the road, that is a 6.5 points fewer than they are averaing overall.
• It is in Chicago where it will be below freezing with snow flurries.

Yep, looks like it is Chicago for me!!!

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 14 Preview

Last week was abysmal, 7-9 and makes us 113-79 through week thirteen. Not the way I want to finish out the year and not the way I need this week to go.

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 14 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
San Diego	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	SD 34-15
Chicago	-6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 26-14
Minnesota	-9.5	Detroit	Minnesota	Det 20-14
Green Bay	-6.5	Houston	Green Bay	GB 31-10
Tennessee	-13.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Ten 38-10
Indianapolis	-13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Ind 34-24
New Orleans	-3.5	Atlanta	New Orleans	Atl 27-24
NY Giants	-8.5	Philadelphia	New York	NY 33-27
NY Jets	-3.5	San Francisco	New York	Jets 23-17
Denver	-9.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	Den 23-9
Buffalo	-1.5	Miami	Miami	Mia 24-21
NE Patriots	-5.5	Seattle	NE Patriots	NE 19-16
Arizona	-13.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	Az 24-21
Pittsburgh	-2.5	Dallas	Dallas	Dal 35-19
Baltimore	-5.5	Washington	Baltimore	Bal 27-24
Carolina	-3.5	Tampa Bay	Carolina	TB 21-24

Well, here goes in bullet form:

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - Oakland at San Diego (10.5) - Oakland 4-2 ATS and the underachieving Chargers 2-4 ATS. Furthermore Oakland is 5-6 as the Underdog while San Diego is only 3-8 as the favorite. Plus a 10.5 spread, in six games at home they only have two wins over 11 points. Not Buying it, taking Oakland and the points.

❄ - Jacksonville at Chicago (6.5 ) - Jacksonville is on 3-3 ATS while Chicago is 2-4. Futhermore Chicago has only won three of their games by a margin greater than 7. Go with the Jags to cover.

❄ - Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5) - Detroit is 0-6 ATS, enough said.

❄ - Houston at Green Bay (6.5) - Houston is 1-5 on the road and 3-3 ATS on the road, Green Bay is 3-3 at home and 3-3 ATS. Additionaly Green Bay is 3-2 as the favorite while Houston is only 3-4 as the underdog. Going with Green Bay.

❄ - Cleveland at Tennessee (13.5) - Cleveland is 4-1 ATS on the road and is 3-2 on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home and 4-2 ATS. Further more, Tennessee only has 1 win that is greater than 13.5 points at home. Tough one here, but am going to go with Cleveland.

❄ - Cincinnati at Indianapolis (13.5) - Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS when they are 10+ underdogs, 0-3 otherwise. Indianapolis is 0-4 with a spread greater than 4.5, 1-0 otherwise. This game is all about the spread.

❄ - Atlanta at New Orleans (3.5) - Atlanta is 3-3 ATS and on the Road, New Orleans is 5-1 ATS and at Home, When the Saints, come marching in!!!

❄ - Philadelphia at NY Giants (8.5) - Giants 6-0 at home, 5-1 ATS while Philadelphia is 2-3 on the road and 3-3 ATS, as much as I hate to say it, Giants.

❄ - NY Jets at San Francisco (-3.5) - Jets are 4-2 ATS and on the road. San Fran is 2-4 ATS at home and are 2-1 as home favorites. Looks like a J-E-T-S game to me.

❄ - Kansas City at Denver (9.5) - As a double digit underdog KC is 3-0, as Underdog on the road they are 4-2. For Denver, the only team they covered at home was San Diego when they were a 2.5 underdog. They are 0-5 as home favorites ATS.

❄ - Miami at Buffalo (1.5) - Buffalo is 2-0 ATS when less than a point favorite at home, otherwise they are 0-4. Miami is 3-2 ATS to match their 3-2 record on the road (Miami won first meeting 25-15).

❄ - NE Patriots at Seattle (-5.5) - Patriots are 4-1 ATS on the road and have a 3-2 record, Seattle, well they stink at home as they have went 1-5 and 2-4 ATS.

❄ - St. Louis at Arizona (13.5) - Arizona is 4-1 at home and 3-2 ATS but have yet to cover when home favorites greater than 7. St. Louis is 2-4 ATS and 1-5 on the road. The spread is the key and I am saying St. Louis covers.

❄ - Dallas at Pittsburgh (2.5) - Dallas is 3-3 on the road and ATS, but has yet to cover as an underdog or if the spread is greater than 3.5 favorites. Pittsburgh is only 2-4 ATS at home but 2-1 as home favorites over 6.0. Look for the Cowboys to not only cover but win out right.

❄ - Washington at Baltimore (5.5) - Baltimore is 4-1 at home but 5-0 ATS the spread at home. Washington is 3-2 ATS while going 4-1 on the road. The Skins are coming off of a tough loss at home to the Giants. Ravens, baby, Ravens.

❄ - Tampa Bay at Carolina (3.5) - Carolina is 6-0 at home and 3-3 as home favorites. Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS on the road and the Bucs are 1-1 as road favorites, 2-2 as dogs. Going with Carolina!

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 14 Thursday Game

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for the Thursday night game in this week fourteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
San Diego	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	SD 34-15

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Oakland at San Diego (10.5) - Oakland 4-2 ATS and the underachieving Chargers 2-4 ATS. Furthermore Oakland is 5-6 as the Underdog while San Diego is only 3-8 as the favorite. Plus a 10.5 spread, in six games at home they only have two wins over 11 points. Not Buying it, taking Oakland and the points.

♊ - Then don't strain your brain trying. Might break something.

NFL 2008 Week 13 Previews

Well we did much better last week as we went 13-3 making us 96-70 for the year. Of course the Turkey Day picks were only 2-1 as once again I missed the Cowboys game. Someday I might actually figure out my boys!!!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week thirteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Tennessee	-11.5	Detroit	Tennessee	Detroit
Dallas	-12.5	Seattle	Seattle	Seattle
Philadelphia	-2.5	Arizona	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Buffalo	-6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Buf 17-12
Baltimore	-7.5	Cincinnati	Baltimore	Cin 20-13
Indianapolis	-4.5	Cleveland	Indianapolis	Ind 28-21
Green Bay	-3.5	Carolina	Green Bay	GB 24-16
Miami	-7.5	St. Louis	Miami	Mia 20-15
Tampa Bay	-4.5	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	TB 24-13
NY Giants	-3.5	Washington	NY Giants	NY 20-9
San Diego	-5.5	Atlanta	Atlanta	SD 27-20
NY Jets	-7.5	Denver	NY Jets	NY 21-16
Oakland	-2.5	Kansas City	Oakland	KC 24-16
NE Patriots	-1.5	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	NE 31-19
Minnesota	-3.5	Chicago	Chicago	Min 21-19
Houston	-3.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jax 20-15

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

❄ - Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5) - Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and is giving up only 11 points per game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Ride the hot horse, so lets pick Tennessee.
❄ - Seattle at Dallas (12.5) - Dallas is only 2-3 ATS at home, and Seattle is 3-2 on the road. That 12.5 spread just bothers me as I saw this as an 8 point win. Of course I haven't done well on the Cowboys games all year so I'm probably wrong again (and if I am, I'll take it). Going with Seattle
❄ - Arizona at Philadelphia (2.5) - Philadelphia is a mess, a QB controversy, a team that is up one week and down the next. It is just hard to figure out the Eagles. It comes down to this, the Cards are a better team but the West Coast Teams are 0-15 this year in the eastern time zone. So, even though Arizona is 4-2 on the road ATS I'm picking the Eagles.
❄ - San Francisco at Buffalo (6.5 ) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS in this situation. Overall These teams are not much better ATS. Just like last week though, I am going against the Bills since they don't cover at home unless the spread is .5. Hey, it worked last week so why change now!
❄ - Baltimore at Cincinnati (-7.5) - Baltimore is 4-2 and Cincy is 2-3 ATS. This is the first time that Baltimore has been a favorite on the road. That is just amazing, you would think that they would have been favored before this. Earlier this week I said that it should be a 5.5 spread for Baltimore, so this has became a coin flip in my mind. I think I will go with Baltimore just because they are the better team.
❄ - Indianapolis at Cleveland (-4.5 ) - I just don't see how Indianapolis is this high of a favorite. Furthermore, even though the Colts are 4-2 ATS on the road they have yet to exceed that 4.5 on the road. This spread is too high and I'm going with the Browns to cover and the Colts to win.
❄ - Carolina at Green Bay (3.5) - Carolina is 2-3 and Green Bay is 3-2 ATS. I had this as a 7.5 spread, so lets go with the Packers.
❄ - Miami at St. Louis (-8.5) - Miami has been good on the road ATS (3-1) this year. Since this is 1.0 less than the spread I picked and since St. Louis sucks at home ATS (1-4), I see no reason not to pick the Dolphins.
❄ - New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4.5) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 at home ATS, enough said, Tampa Bay gets my pick.
❄ - NY Giants at Washington (-3.5) - Giants are 4-1 on the road ATS and Washington is 2-4 ATS at home. Giants it is!
❄ - Atlanta at San Diego (5.5) - Both teams are 2-3 ATS but the Falcons are actually playing better and I think the Chargers are almost at the playing out the string period of the season. Take Atlanta and take the points.
❄ - Pittsburgh at New England (1.5) - Bulletin board material not withstanding, how does a team with a better record, a better defense and better special teams end up as the Underdog? Steelers all the way!
❄ - Denver at NY Jets (7.5) - Jets are 3-2 and the Broncos are 3-2 ATS. Jets are a better team and this spread should be higher. J-E-T-S, as Favre goes crazy and throws 4 tds.
❄ - Kansas City at Oakland (2.5) - I thought that this was a pick em game, but after thinking about this game I think that Oakland is just the better team (KC might be even worse than Detroit).
❄ - Chicago at Minnesota (3.5) - Chicago is the underdog? No, in my book they should have been the favorite, going with the Bears.
❄ - Jacksonville at Houston (3.5) - Both teams do better on the road. How is Houston the Favorite? Take the points and take the Jags.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 13 Thursday Games - Turkey Day

Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Go Cowboys!!! Say a prayer for those in uniform and give thanks for living in the shining city on the hill nation of nations. Now here are My Thanksgiving Football picks!

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for Thanksgiving in this week thirteen of the 2008 season.

Week 13 Thursday Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Tennessee	-11.5	Detroit	Tennessee	Ten - 20-16
Dallas	-12.5	Seattle	Seattle	Dal - 24-17
Philadelphia	-2.5	Arizona	Philadelphia	Phi - 27-17

(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5) - Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and is giving up only 11 points per game. Detroit is 0-5 ATS at home this year. Ride the hot horse, so lets pick Tennessee.

♊ - Seattle at Dallas (12.5) - Dallas is only 2-3 ATS at home, and Seattle is 3-2 on the road. That 12.5 spread just bothers me as I saw this as an 8 point win. Of course I haven't done well on the Cowboys games all year so I'm probably wrong again (and if I am, I'll take it). Going with Seattle

♊ - Arizona at Philadelphia (2.5) - Philadelphia is a mess, a QB controversy, a team that is up one week and down the next. It is just hard to figure out the Eagles. It comes down to this, the Cards are a better team but the West Coast Teams are 0-15 this year in the eastern time zone. So, even though Arizona is 4-2 on the road ATS I'm picking the Eagles.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Misc. Post 1

Ok, so I decided to start something new this week, especially with an outstanding week going on the picks (12-3 as we type). Tonight we debut the IF I WAS SETTING SPREADS posts. The following is what I think should be the Favorite and the Spreads for week thirteen of the 2008 NFL season. Enjoy!!!

Projected Spread for Week 13 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Fav Rec*	Und Rec*
Tennesse	-15.5	Detroit	4-1	0-5
Dallas	-8.5	Seattle	2-3	3-2
Philadelphia	-4.5	Arizona	3-2	4-2
Buffalo	-6.5	San Francisco	2-3	2-3
Baltimore	-5.5	Cincinnati	5-1	2-3
Indianapolis	-0.5	Cleveland	4-2	2-4
Green Bay	-7.5	Carolina	3-2	2-3
Miami	-8.5	St. Louis	3-1	1-4
Tampa Bay	-9.5	New Orleans	4-1	2-3
NY Giants	-2.5	Washington	4-1	2-4
San Diego	-4.5	Atlanta	2-3	2-3
Pittsburgh	-1.5	NE Patriots	4-1	2-4
NY Jets	-8.5	Denver	3-2	3-2
Oakland	Pick em	Kansas City	1-4	3-2
Chicago	-0.5	Minnesota	4-2	2-5
Jacksonville	-1.5	Houston	3-2	1-4

*These are the records for the teams against the spread in their future situation, either at home or on the road.
Will take a look tomorrow when the actual spreads comeout!!!

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 12 Preview

Well we did much better last week as we went 10-6 making us 93-67 for the year. Off to a bad start with Pittsburgh scoring late to cover and then intercepting the Bengals at the goal line to ensure the spread. Looking to do even better this week. (go Cowboys!!!)

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week twelve of the 2008 season.

Week 12 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Pitt - 28-9
Atlanta	-1.5	Carolina	Atlanta	Car - 27-24
Cleveland	-3.5	Houston	Houston	Hou 19-14
Dallas	-10.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	Dal 16-10
Tampa Bay	-8.5	Detroit	Tampa Bay	TB - 24-23
Tennessee	-5.5	NY Jets	NY Jets	TN - 21-20
Buffalo	-3.5	Kansas City	Buffalo	KC - 27-21
Chicago	-7.5	St. Louis	Chicago	Chi - 24-17
Miami	-1.5	NE Patriots	NE Patriots	NE - 21-17
Jacksonville	-2.5	Minnesota	Minnesota	Jax - 27-21
Baltimore	-1.5	Philadelphia	Baltimore	Phi - 20-13
Denver	-9.5	Oakland	Oakland	Den - 27-15
NY Giants	-3.5	Arizona	Arizona	NY - 26-14
Washington	-3.5	Seattle	Washington	Was - 17-13
San Diego	-2.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	SD - 20-15
New Orleans	-2.5	Green Bay	New Orleans	GB -27-14

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread, APG - Average Points per Game

♊ - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (10.5) - Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS on the road (4-5 overall). The two games that Cincinnati coverd on the road, both had double digit spreads. My second reason for picking Cincinnati, the waxing that Pittsburgh laid on the Bengals earlier this year. (ok, so i was wrong, but remember Cincy was intercepted at the goal line with 27 seconds left).
♊ - Carolina at Atlanta (1.5) - Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home, yes I know that loss was last week, but I think I will stick with the Falcons at home.
♊ - Houston at Cleveland (3.5) - Cleveland has yet to cover at home as the favorite, Houston though is 2-3 on the road. Go with Houston.
♊ - San Francisco at Dallas (10.5) - San Francisco sucks but its a 10.5 spread, Dallas wins by 7
♊ - Tampa Bay at Detroit (-8.5) - Detroit sucks, Tampa Bay is no great shakes on the road but did I mention that the Lions suck?
♊ - NY Jets at Tennessee (5.5) - Game of the week by far but this type of Game is why Favre was brought to NY. Look for a scoring machine by both teams but I just don't think that Tennessee will win by more than a field goal.
♊ - Buffalo at Kansas City (-3.5) - Buffalo doesn't do well with spreads over .5 but this is KC they are playing. Look for Buffalo to win by 10.
♊ - Chicago at St. Louis (-7.5) - St. Louis has played better lately but they suck at home ATS (1-3).
♊ - NE Patriots at Miami (1.5) - Miami killed the Patriots earlier this year, but this is a different Patriot team now and I expect payback in a big way.
♊ - Minnesota at Jacksonville (2.5) - Jacksonville may be the most over rated team this year and they have not played well at home. Neither team excites me but at least Minnesota has covered on the road this year.
♊ - Philadelphia at Baltimore (1.5) - The Eagles may be the most up and down team this year. Baltimore is 4-0 at home ATS.
♊ - Oakland at Denver (9.5) - Old time rivals and 9.5 spread. Going with the 3-2 ATS Raiders over the 1-4 Broncos.
♊ - NY Giants at Arizona (-3.5) - Identical images as both teams are 3-1 ATS in this situation but I just think the Giants are the better team.
♊ - Washington at Seattle (-3.5) - Going with the Washington Redskins and their 3-1 ATS on the road.
♊ - Indianapolis at San Diego (2.5) - San Diego is at home after traveling to Pittsburgh and losing a 1 point heartbreaker. Norv Turner strikes again and the Colts pull the upset.
♊ - Green Bay at New Orleans (2.5) - Another game with similar ATS but New Orleans is winning by 10 at home, Drew Brees leads a team to a late score covering the spread.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 12 Thursday Game

Remember - this pick is only for entertainment purposes and you bet on my pick at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the pick for week twelves Thursday night game of the 2008 season.

Week 12 Thursday Nights Game

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Pittsburgh	-10.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Pitt - 28-9

Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS on the road (4-5 overall). The two games that Cincinnati coverd on the road, both had double digit spreads. My second reason for picking Cincinnati, the waxing that Pittsburgh laid on the Bengals earlier this year.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 11 Preview

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you bet on these picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now let us look at the picks for week eleven of the 2008 season.

Week 11 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
NE Patriots	-3.5	NY Jets	NY Jets	NE Patriots
Atlanta	-5.5	Denver	Atlanta	Denver
Philadelphia	-9.5	Cincinatti	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Green Bay	-5.5	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago
Indianapolis	-8.5	Houston	Houston	Indianapolis
New Orleans	-4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	New Orleans
Miami	-10.5	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland
NY Giants	-6.5	Baltimore	Baltimore	Baltimore
Tampa Bay	-3.5	Minnesota	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Carolina	-14.5	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit
Tennessee	-2.5	Jacksonville	Tennessee	Jacksonville
San Francisco	-3.5	St. Louis	San Francisco	San Francisco
Arizona	-3.5	Seattle	Arizona	Seattle
Pittsburgh	-4.5	San Diego	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	-1.5	Washington	Washington	Dallas
Buffalo	-4.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland

Ok, so we had another mediocre record last week. Needless to say when the last four weeks are only 2 games over .500, which is not good prognostication. Something must change.

Well, must is probably not a good word to be using, ok, it is a lousy word. How about we try something different this time?

Well, here goes in bullet form:
(definitions ATS - against the spread APG - Average Points per Game)

♊ - NY Jets at NE Patriots - This is a tough one for me as the Jets are 5-4 versus the spread and so are the Patriots. If you looked solely on the ATS this would be a draw. I'm going with the Jets to cover based on their 22 points a game on the road versus the Patriots 23 points a game at home this year.
♊ - Denver at Atlanta - not even a close call here, Atlanta is 6-4 ATS, 4-0 at home while Denver is 3-6, 2-2 on the road. Also the 32 apg versus the 25 apg doesn't hurt in my speculation.
♊ - Philadelphia at Cincinnati - Philadelphia wins all battles but I worry about that 9.5 spread. Philly wins by an average of 6.25 points on the road and Cincinnati loses by over 12 points a game at home.
♊ - Chicago at Green Bay - Chicago 3-1 ATS on the road and Green Bay is only 2-2. Average score for Chicago on the road 25 points and Green Bay only averages 25 points at home. Something has to give, going to go with their records against the spread - Chicago.
♊ - Houston at Indianapolis - How weird is Indianapolis's season. Four games at home this year and 1-3 ATS. Houston is just as bad on the road ATS so it is a toss up. Which means I am going to go with Houston to cover this game based on Indy's 3.25 APG margin at home.
♊ - New Orleans at Kansas City - Two teams with similar records ATS. However, both teams do better if you flip the home / away scenario. In this case though both teams have losing APG in this match up. Gut says New Orleans wins but Kansas City covers.
♊ - Oakland at Miami - Miami is 0-2 ATS as home favorites. Oakland is 2-2 as road underdogs ATS. The only thing that concerns me about picking Oakland, when they lose on the road, they lose big.
♊ - Baltimore at NY Giants - Both teams are great ATS but Baltimore is 5-0 as road underdogs ATS. Slight edge and also, they have been hot for me, taking the Ravens here.
♊ - Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has been unstoppable at home this year. Ride that baby hard, and going with the Bucs.
♊ - Detroit at Carolina - 14.5 points? I know that Detroit is bad but 14.5 points? Both of these teams have done well in this scenario but that 14.5 points scares the beejebus out of me, so we'll pick the horrible Lions to stay with in two touchdowns.
♊ - Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS at home while Tennessee is 3-1 ATS on the road. Enough said.
♊ - St. Louis at San Francisco - Logically one would say that St. Louis would have the edge here since it has performed better ATS. I am not going to be logical. San Francisco and St. Louis have played three common opponents, San Francisco has done better and is playing at home. San Francisco is my pick this week.
♊ - Arizona at Seattle - Another tough one for me, I have yet to pick correctly on any of Seattle's home games this year. 5th time the charm? I am going with Arizona's record ATS on the Road.
♊ - San Diego at Pittsburgh - San Diego is 1-4 ATS on the road; Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS at home. No common opponents in similar situations so, flip a coin? Nope, we are going with San Diego since the Steelers seem to be all beat up.
♊ - Dallas at Washington - Just shoot me now. Put me out of my misery, Dallas is 3-6 versus the spread Washington is 5-4. Common opponents, Dallas loses that argument, my heart says Dallas, and my head says Washington.
♊ - Cleveland at Buffalo - While I think Buffalo is the better team, Cleveland is 3-1 ATS on the road. Buffalo 2-2 ATS at home, but both of those covers were with .5 spreads. Buffalo wins a close one but Cleveland covers.

♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.

NFL 2008 Week 11 Thursday Game

Ok, here is the deal. We went 8-6 last week so made up some ground but the Thursday night pick well it sucked. Looking to do better this time around as we cast our eyes north to the wet, drizzly, utterly yucky weather in the Boston area. In other words, this is Favre Weather!!!

Remember - this picks is only for entertainment purposes and you follow / bet on my picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now off to the picks for the Thursday night game of week eleven of the 2008 season.

Week 11 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
NE Patriots	-3.5	NY Jets	NY Jets

♊ - NY Jets at NE Patriots - This is a tough one for me as the Jets are 5-4 versus the spread and so are the Patriots. If you looked solely on the ATS this would be a draw. I'm going with the Jets to cover based on their 22 points a game on the road versus the Patriots 23 points a game at home this year.

NFL 2008 Week 10 Preview

Ok, so Thursday night I blew it. Ugh, what can I say I am just barely hanging on with a seasonal record of 75-56. Still in the black but we need to do better, well better than last weeks 6-8 record anyway.

Remember - these picks are only for entertainment purposes and you follow / bet on these from my picks at your own peril. I am not responsible for you following my stupidity. Now off to the picks for week ten of the 2008 season.

Week 10 Games

Favorite	Spread.	Underdog	Pick	Madden 09
Cleveland	-3.5	Denver	Cleveland	Den 28-26
Atlanta	-.5	New Orleans	Atlanta	NO 20-17
Tennessee	-3.0	Chicago	Tennessee	Tenn. 21-13
Jacksonville	-6.5	Detroit	Jacksonville	Jax 30-17
Miami	-9.5	Seattle	Miami	Mia 24-14
Minnesota	-2.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	GB 20-17
NE Patriots	-3.5	Buffalo	Buffalo	NE 38-27
NY Jets	-8.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	NY 38-28
Houston	-1.5	Baltimore	Baltimore	Hou 22-14
Carolina	-9.5	Oakland	Carolina	Car 24-16
Pittsburgh	-3.5	Indianapolis	Pittsburgh	Pit 21-17
San Diego	-15.5	Kansas City	Kansas City	SD 27-10
Philadelphia	-2.5	NY Giants	Philadelphia	NY 31-24
Arizona	-9.5	San Francisco	San Francisco	SF 30-20

Games to watch Buffalo at NE, Carolina at Oakland, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, Kansas City at San Diego, and NY Giants at Philadelphia. (1-5)

1. Buffalo has a better record against the spread (ATS) but NE is coached by a master, they are at home, and its a division game. I have probably changed my pick on this game half a dozen times.
2. It should be obvious that Carolina is the better team but that -9.5 really, really worries me.
3. Indy in this situation is actually better ATS but Pittsburgh has looked really good lately.
4. San Diego has been under performing all year but that -15.5 worries me.
5. Philly at home is averaging double digit above their oppo's. Giants ar good though so will be keeping sharp objects in the drawer while watching this game.
   
   ♊ - Well, let's hope we get some funny hats too.