NFL - Week 8

Well, its Sunday and we know what that means, yes thats right its my weekly boring post on my weekly picks. Thru 7 weeks I am 51 and 49 against the spread. My only dogs that I have winning out right this week are Indianapolis, Jets, and Atlanta.

The interesting games should be the Indy vs Denver game which I think will be decided by a last second FG. The Dallas game because we will all be waiting for Romo to fail and Parcells head explode when he is forced to go back to Bledsoe.

New England at Minnesota on Monday night could be interesting depending on whether the Patriots passing game has improved or if Brady becomes frustrated because his receivers keep on getting knocked off of their routes.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
Kansas City	- 5 1/2	Seattle	Kansas City
Chicago	- 16 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco
New Orleans	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	New Orleans
Tennessee	- 3 1/2	Houston	Tennessee
New York G	- 9 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Green Bay	- 3 1/2	Arizona	Green Bay
Cincinnati	- 4 1/2	Atlanta	Atlanta
Philadelphia	- 6 1/2	Jacksonville	Philadelphia
San Diego	- 8 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis
Pittsburgh	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland
Denver	- 2 1/2	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Cleveland	- 1 1/2	New York J	New York J
Carolina	- 4 1/2	Dallas	Dallas
New England	- 2 1/2	Minnesota	New England

Not a bad week last week ( 7 and 6) but since I basically choked in the college picks yesterday am hoping for a big, big, result today.

College Football Picks Week 9

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football picks. Just as a recap, last week I went 9 and 1 which brought my season picks to 66 and 14. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Oklahoma	3	Missouri	Oklahoma
Penn St.	1	Purdue	Purdue
Notre Dame	10	Navy	Notre Dame
Nebraska	8	Oklahoma St.	Nebraska
Arizona St.	5	Washington	Washington
Texas	9	Texas Tech	Texas
Tennessee	4	South Carolina	South Carolina
Florida St.	6	Maryland	Florida St.
Miami (Fl.)	7	Georgia Tech	Miami
Georgia	2	Florida	Florida

Some tough games this week. The Penn State - Purdue game, Georgia - Florida game, Oklahoma - Missouri game and the Tennessee - South Carolina game are all flip a coin type of games. Then again I am not too sure about the 5 - 7 games either.

The only locks, I think, are Notre Dame (almost always beats Navy), Texas and Nebraska. Nebraska appears to be back in business as a good team week after week.

The Tennessee game is tough, because I think Tennessee is the better team but that guy walking the sideline with the visor always gives the Volunteers fits. Purely a gut call.

Nfl Week 7 wrap up and other idle thoughts

Freaking cowboys, I can't believe they choked as bad as they did last night. Parcells hit the nail on the head with his comment about being embarassing. Of course what really sucked was that I ended up going 7 and 6 for the week with my picks.

Am tired of everybody griping and complaining about LaRussa not challenging Rogers etc. in game 2 of the Series. Whether he had pine tar or not, the game is over and done and is in the books. Personally, I think he did use tar, I think LaRussa should have challenged and got him suspended for the rest of the series, but I was not the one sitting on the bench worrying about my pitchers (maybe) being challenged etc. Still, would like to see St. Louis win this game (hey, grew up in that KMOX Broadcast area) and the series.

Idle thoughts

So yesterday I am sitting (ok, lounging) in the big chair watching the Tennessee and Bama game while keeping one eye on the Notre Dame UCLA game. In both games my picks were losing and I was watching 15 confidence points go down the drain, when lo and behold Notre Dame got the ball back with a little over a minute to go and you just knew they were going to pull out a win, sure enough I get that win and flip back to the Tennessee game to see Bama cough up a loss. Sometimes its better to be lucky instead of good.

1st set of NFL games have now finished, with wins in 5 of the 8 games. Mental note to self, never ever change your mind when inputting your picks, especially if the trend is with your initial pick. Still, looking better than I have in the last two weeks.

St. Louis takes the first game of the World Series and now Detroit must count on the Gambler to even the series. Don't count on it, bubs.

NFL - Week 7

Well, its Sunday and we know what that means, yes thats right its my weekly boring post on my weekly picks. After week 6 I am 44 and 43 against the spread. My only unders winning outright this week are Carolina and Green Bay. My initial thoughts on the Pittsburgh and Atlanta game was to have Atlanta cover, but after thinking about it I changed my mind to a close Pittsburgh win.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
San Diego	- 5 1/2	Kansas City	Kansas City
Jacksonville	- 9 1/2	Houston	Jacksonville
Cincinnati	- 3 1/2	Carolina	Carolina
NY Jets	- 3 1/2	Detroit	NY Jets
Miami	- 4 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay
New England	- 5 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo
Philadelphia	- 5 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh	- 1 1/2	Atlanta	Pittsburgh
Denver	- 5 1/2	Cleveland	Denver
Arizona	- 3 1/2	Oakland	Arizona
Seattle	- 6 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota
Indianapolis	- 9 1/2	Washington	Washington
Dallas	- 3 1/2	NY Giants	Dallas

Hopefully I can do better than last week when I only won 5 games (2 weeks in a row I was below 500).

Below is a chart showing the teams playing this week and how they have done against the spreaed. Headings are G - Games, HG-Home Games, and AG-Away Games.

Team	G	G Cov	HG Cov	AG Cov
San Diego	5	80%	100%	66%
Kansas City	5	20%	33%	0%
Jacksonville	5	80%	100%	50%
Houston	5	20%	33%	0%
Cincinnati	5	60%	50%	66%
Carolina	6	16%	0%	33%
NY Jets	6	60%	50%	66%
Detroit	6	33%	66%	0%
Miami	6	0%	0%	0%
Grean Bay	5	20%	0%	50%
New England	5	60%	33%	100%
Buffalo	6	50%	50%	50%
Philadelphia	6	66%	66%	66%
Tampa Bay	5	60%	66%	50%
Pittsburgh	5	40%	66%	0%
Atlanta	5	60%	66%	50%
Denver	5	40%	33%	50%
Cleveland	5	60%	50%	66%
Arizona	6	33%	50%	0%
Oakland	5	20%	0%	33%
Seattle	5	40%	100%	0%
Minnesota	5	60%	66%	50%
Indianapolis	5	40%	33%	50%
Washington	6	33%	33%	33%
Dallas	5	60%	100%	33%
NY Giants	5	66%	66%	66%

Games where I am bucking the trend are:

Kansas City - A Division game between two rivals that I expect to be won by a 4 point spread (21-17).

Carolina - I expect Carolina to win this one going away.

Buffalo - Another Division game and Buffalo always gives the Patriots fits at their place.

Tampa Bay - This is really a push as far as the percentages (Eagles 66% on the road, Tampa 66% at home).

Pittsburgh - I think Atlanta will be reeling from the Vick comments and wouldn't be surprised if they got blown out.

Denver - Another push as each team is 50% in this situation, but I believe Denver is at least a touchdown better.

Seattle - Seattle isn't as good as their record suggest and Minnesota is better than their record. Look for Seattle to win by a FG.

Indianapolis - Both teams cover 33% of the time in this matchup, another push. Still I think the Colts are the better team but won't win by 10 points.

Well, those are the picks and some of the reasons that I went the way that I did.

College Football picks week 8

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football. Just as a recap, last week I went 9 and 1 which brought my season picks to 57 and 13. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Iowa	9	Michigan	Michigan
Texas	3	Nebraska	Texas
Alabama	8	Tennessee	Tennessee
UCLA	7	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
Georgia Tech	1	Clemson	Georgia Tech
Mississippi	4	Arkansas	Arkansas
Colorado	5	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
Wisconsin	2	Purdue	Wisconsin
Fresno St	6	LSU	LSU
Indiana	10	Ohio St	Ohio ST

Pretty much a straight forward week this time. The only Upset would be the Clemson game and that is not much of an upset since Clemson is 12th ranked and Georgia Tech is 13th ranking. In fact the only game that I think will be intriguing will be the Texas at Nebraska. Is Nebraska for real or was that blow out loss to USC the blip on the schedule.
GO HOGS!!!!!!!!!!

NFL Week 6 wrap up

Well, thanks to Arizona I was able to finish on a high note. Yeah, right, I went 5 and fricking 8. On the upside I did pick Detroit to win their first game, of course it would have been nice for Seattle to have missed that field goal at the end of the game so that my upset specials could have been 2 and 0.

For the season this makes me 44 and 43. Freaking 500 for the year. Unbelievable The only good thing is that I am still alive in the eliminator challenge.

Not much going on the Red Sox front except the coaching changes. Just sitting back I think Francona is the man pulling the strings on the Papa Jack, Wallace and other firings and he is real active in hiring process. See ya later.

NFL - Week 6

Well, its Sunday and we know what that means, yes thats right its my weekly boring post on my weekly picks. After week 5 I am 39 and 35 against the spread (a whopping winning percantage of 53). I only have two underdogs winning outright this week, I think the St. Louis Rams will beat Seattle at home and Detroit to beat Buffalo at home.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
Dallas	- 12 1/2	Houston	Dallas
Philadelphia	- 3 1/2	New Orleans	Philadelphia
Seattle	- 3 1/2	St. Louis	St. Louis
Atlanta	- 2 1/2	New York Giants	Atlanta
Washington	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Buffalo	- 1 1/2	Detroit	Detroit
Baltimore	- 2 1/2	Carolina	Baltimore
Cincinnati	- 6 1/2	Tampa Bay	Cincinnati
San Diego	- 10 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco
Pittsburgh	- 6 1/2	Kansas City	Kansas City
New York Jets	- 2 1/2	Miami	Miami
Denver	- 16 1/2	Oakland	Denver
Chicago	- 10 1/2	Arizona	Arizona

Will be interesting to see how Dallas bounces back after their complete meltdown against the Eagles last week. Has shaped up to be an interesting season so far this year with the biggest surprises being the 4 - 1 Saints, Rams, Ravens, Eagles and the 5 - 0 Bears.

Later

College Football week 7 recap

I ended my pick post with the following:

The Missouri vs Texas A & M game is also interesting. I can remember (hey I grew up in Big 8 country) when Missouri was a very good football team. They were always competitive and used to give Oklahoma and Nebraska fits every year. Its good too see them having a good year, but I still aren't sold on them being a top 25 team, thus the 2 confidence level.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, my backs take on that fierce team from SE Missouri. They better win this game by 20 or they can kiss that 17 ranking good bye.

Well, sure enough the Aggies outlasted the Tigers and another dropped from the list of unbeatens. Of course I would have been happy to have been wrong about this team since that was the only game I lost today. Still 9 and 1 is good enough for me.

Oh, yeah, the Razorbacks actually listened to me for once and wiped the SE Missouri off the field. Also, with Auburn beating Florida, (another unbeaten bites the dust) I look for Arkansas to move up a spot in the polls.

Later will have my NFL picks.

College Football picks week 7

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football. Just as a recap, last week I went 8 and 2 which brought my season picks to 48 and 12. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Syracuse	7	West Virginia	West Virginia
Rutgers	3	Navy	Rutgers
Missouri	2	Texas A & M	Missouri
Ohio St.	10	Michigan State	Ohio State
Cincinnati	6	Louisville	Louisville
UCLA	4	Oregon	Oregon
Maryland	5	Virginia	Maryland
Arizona St.	9	USC	USC
Michigan	8	Penn State	Michigan
Florida	1	Auburn	Auburn

Unlike last week where I thought any of the 1 - 8 matchups could win, this week I think that any team that I rated over 4 are pretty safe.

The most intriguing matchup this week (for me at least) is the Florida vs Auburn game. #3 Florida is 6 and 0 and last week the 5 and 1 Tigers of Auburn were embarrassed at home by Arkansas (yea boy). I look for a big rebound from the defense and expect Auburn to squeak out a win at home. Still, if Florida wins this game and then runs the table the rest of the year, they will be one of the two teams in the BCS championship game.

The Missouri vs Texas A & M game is also interesting. I can remember (hey I grew up in Big 8 country) when Missouri was a very good football team. They were always competitive and used to give Oklahoma and Nebraska fits every year. Its good too see them having a good year, but I still aren't sold on them being a top 25 team, thus the 2 confidence level.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, my backs take on that fierce team from SE Missouri. They better win this game by 20 or they can kiss that 17 ranking good bye.

If Good Saturdays Lead To Bad Sundays?

Well, if days like saturday lead to days where I go 4 and 10 in my football picks, I will take them. Stunning upsets by the backs and eliminations of the spankees are high on the list and will always outdo disappointments of those picks. By far my worst day of picks this year. UGGGGGLLLLLLY.

Yo, Bledsoe, how about throwing the ball to your team instead of the opposing team. The rest, well, that is what happens sometimes against the spread.

Want some good thoughts on the Tigers and A's series, well you can go to Fire Brand's for his take or Hardball Times has a good one also.

Hope you enjoyed Columbus day, I know I sure did.

NFL football week 5

Well, its Sunday and we know what that means, yes thats right its my weekly boring post on my weekly picks. Remember (he brags), so far am 35 and 25 this year against the spread. Before we get to the picks though make sure you check out the latest Dilbert newsletter in all its glory.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
St. Louis	- 2 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay
New Orleans	- 6 1/2	Tampa Bay	New Orleans
Indianapolis	- 18 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Minnesota	- 6 1/2	Detroit	Minnesota
Chicago	- 10 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo
New York NYG	- 4 1/2	Washington	NY G
Carolina	- 8 1/2	Cleveland	Carolina
New England	- 9 1/2	Miami	Miami
San Francisco	- 3 1/2	Oakland	Oakland
Kansas City	- 3 1/2	Arizona	Arizona
Jacksonville	- 7 1/2	New York NYJ	NY J
Philadelphia	- 2 1/2	Dallas	Dallas
San Diego	- 3 1/2	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Denver	- 4 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore

Underdogs that I expect to win this week: Green Bay, Oakland (yes Oakland is bad but so is San Fran and even blind squirrels find an acorn), Arizona (Lienart's first start), Dallas and Pittsburgh.

Dog upsets am 8 - 4 this season

Today was a good day

Update: **** that was quick but it looks like the Boss is already making changes. ***

Lots to be thankful for this week, starting off with a 22 year anniversary, but today was a good day.

Got 3 hours of sleep and then got up to watch my Arkansas Razorbacks stun the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare stadium 27 - 10. After getting up out of the easy chair and doing my victory dance (embarrassing the daughter and making the wife throw me out of the living room), I checked out my football picks and noticed that I was 7 and 0 in the afternoon games. Always good to start out well.

While waiting for the Yankee game to start I watched the last 30 minutes of last night's Battlestar Galactica (freaking show is driving me crazy), since I had to leave for work just as it was getting good last night. Love this series and am really glad I don't have to wait months for the next one.

Kept flipping back and forth between the Florida LSU game and that NY game, Bonderman was freaking unhittable for the first 5 innings. Will be interesting watching how the papers will blame this all on A-Rod but I notice that Giambi wasn't even playing in this game, Sheffield was just as bad as A-Rod, Damon batted 250 in the series, Mussina sucked, Johnson sucked, Wright was horrible. Looks like a total melt down to me and I fully expect explosions from the Boss in the next few days.

Like I said, today was a good day.

Arkansas at Auburn

UPDATE: Arkansas 27 Auburn 10 !!!!!!!



SOOOOIEEEEEE! PIG! SOOOOIEEEEEE! PIG!

HOGS UP BY 7 AT THE HALF. Yeah boy!!!!!!

ALDS playoffs

Am shocked by this result. The team that hasn't been able to win a series in years not only wins one but sweeps the freaking Twins. Wow.

Of course this result is just as surprising (Hey Ordway Still Think the Spankees are going to win the World Series?). Am glad that I don't bet on baseball. My picks for all four series looks like crap, with a good chance that I may go 0 - 4. ugghhh.

College Football picks week 6

Update: fixed and added links

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football. Just as a recap, last week I went 8 and 2 which brought my season picks to 40 and 10. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Clemson	3	Wake Forest	Clemson
Pittsburgh	7	Syracuse	Pitt
Purdue	6	Iowa	Iowa
Navy	5	Air Force	Navy
LSU	4	Florida	Florida
Michigan St	10	Michigan	Michigan
Tennessee	2	Georgia	Georgia
Oregon	8	California	Oregon
Nebraska	9	Iowa St.	Nebraska
Texas	1	Oklahoma	Texas

Really no surprises this week, but it was tough deciding my 1 - 10. I really think that the 1 - 8 picks are toss ups this week and would not be surprised if my 9 and 10 picks lost. Working on a Schilling review which I hope to post later after I get some sleep.

Oh yes, only game I really care about today is the Arkansas at Auburn game. Go HOGGGGGGSSSS!!!!!!!

Tavarez as a starter?

The Hardball Times takes a good look at the case for Tavarez as a starter next year in Boston. Well, worth the read here.

weei's big show asks plls delivers

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

Not for sure who (sean mcadam?) asked on the big show yesterday but I deliver the goods thanks to Baseball Musings database. The question was the breakdown on Beckett's games, specifically his ERA in his wins, losses and no decisions. As I think most people know when Beckett was good, he was very good and when he was bad, he was very bad. Anyway, here are the breakdowns.

Wins
In 16 wins he pitched 109 2/3 innings with a 2.22 ERA. In all but one of the 16 wins these were quality starts (6 innings 3 earned runs or less). The one bad start was on 7/8 vs the White Sox. Other things to note, he gave up 12 HR's in those starts, 26 BB's, 83 K's.

He had 3 wins where he pitched shutout ball, 5 wins giving up only 1 earned run, 4 wins giving up 2 earned runs, 3 wins giving up 3 earned runs and 1 game where he gave up
5 earned runs (3 hr's). 1/2 of all his wins no home runs were hit against him.

He won 8 games on the road ( 2 at Yankee stadium) and 8 at home. His 16 wins came against 14 different teams with only the Yankees and Phillies being the only with 2 wins.
These 11 of the 14 teams had overall winning records and combined all 14 had a .513 winning percentage.

Losses
In 11 losses he pitched 57 1/3 innings with a 10.36 ERA. Only 2 of these games did he pitch a quality start (7/3 at Tampa Bay and 8/29 at Oakland). The worst start was his 6/5 game at the Yankees where he pitched 1 1/3 inning giving up 7 earned runs on 7 hits (2 hr's, 2 BB's and 1 K).

20 of his 36 home runs allowed came in these losses, he also issued 34 BB's and only had 49 k's.

His 11 losses came against 6 teams with 2 losses to the Yankees, Cleveland, Toronto, Oakland, and Tampa Bay. Each of these teams beat him at Fenway and in their home stadium. 4 of the six teams had winning records and combined their winning percentage was .526.

No Decisions
In 6 no decisions he pitched 37 2/3 innings with a 5.02 ERA. Half of those were quality starts. He gave up 4 home runs, issued 14 BB's and struck out 26. He had 2 no decisions against Toronto and KC (1 at home and 1 away in both cases). 2 of the 4 teams he faced had winning records.

Road Starts
In 16 road starts he went 9 and 5 with a 5.21 ERA. He faced 12 different teams on the road and 10 of the 16 starts were against teams with winning records. 11 of the 16 were quality starts his pitching line went like this:

Innings	Earned Runs	Homers	BB's	K's
95	55	24	35	75

Home Starts
In 17 home starts he went 7 and 6 with a 4.84 ERA. He faced 13 different teams at home and 10 of the 17 games were against teams with winning records. 9 of the 17 were quality starts his pitching line went like this:

Innings	Earned Runs	Homers	BB's	K's
109 2/3	59	12	39	84

Vs winning teams
Beckett started 20 games against 8 teams with winning records. He went 10 and 7 with a 5.50 ERA. 11 of the 20 games were quality starts. Other parts of his performance were:

Innings	Earned Runs	Homers	BB's	K's
121	74	23	53	85

Vs losing teams
Beckett started 13 games against 7 teams with losing records. He went 6 and 4 with a 4.30 ERA. 9 of the 13 games were quality starts. Other parts of his performance were:

Innings	Earned Runs	Homers	BB's	K's
83 2/3	40	13	21	73

Other things noticed
Vs Toronto he went 1 and 2 in 5 starts with a 6.21 era, giving up 28 hits, 20 earned runs, 8 hr's, 12 BB's, 17 k's in 29 innings. The only quality start was his first start which he won.

Vs Yankees he went 2 and 2 in 4 starts with a 9.45 era, giving up 24 hits, 21 earned runs, 5 hr's, 16 BB's, 14 k's in 20 innings. He had his quality starts in both wins, his first and last start against the Yankees.

Vs Tampa Bay he went 1 and 2 in 3 starts with a 5.03 era, giving up 19 hits, 11 earned run, 5 hr's, 5 BB's, 21 k's in 19 2/3 innings. He had 2 quality starts (his first 2), 1 win - 1 loss.

Vs Baltimore he had 1 start on 5/15, which he won giving up 2 hits in 7 innings with 1 hr, 0 bb's and 6 k's.

See you later.

Playoffs and NFL Week 4 wrap up

Ugh, Green Bay started out alright then Philly brought out the stick and beat them senseless. Ugly! Still, 8 and 6 for the week and 35 and 25 for the year against the spread.

Baseball playoffs start today and my initial thoughts are Yankees in 4, Twins in 3, Dodgers in 4, and Padres in 5.

Update: added link to cardinals series.

The Hardball Times has a comprehensive breakdown of the Yankee series here. The Twins series is here. The cardinal series is here.

Firebrand has a playoff power ranking here.

Like I said I think Yankees, Twins, Dodgers and Padres move on in the first round. Second round I think will be the Dodgers and Yankees. With (gulp), the spankees winning it all.

Idle thoughts on 10/2/2006

After 40 games record of 25 - 15
After 50 games record of 30 - 20
After 54 games record 0f 33 - 21
After 81 games record of 50 - 31
After 100 games record of 61 - 39
After 108 games record of 65 - 43
After 120 games record of 69 - 51
After 150 games record of 81 - 69
After 162 games record of 86 - 76

Hard to think that at the 100 game split was the highlight of the season. The last 62 games of the year the Sox went 25 and 37.

NFL Football week 4 - Going into tonight have went 8 and 5 with my upset specials of Houston, Baltimore and Washington winning. For awhile there I also thought that the Raiders would pull it out also. Still at worse I will be 8 and 6 but I fully expect Favre and the Packers to cover the spread. See you tomorrow.

NFL - Week 4

Well its week 4 of the NFL and time for my picks of today's games. Last week I went 9 and 5 to bring the total to 27 and 19 for the first 3 weeks.

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
Kansas City	- 7 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco
Miami	- 4 1/2	Houston	Houston
Dallas	- 9 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Indianapolis	- 9 1/2	New York J	Indianapolis
Buffalo	- 1 1/2	Minnesota	Buffalo
San Diego	- 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore
Carolina	- 6 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans
Atlanta	- 7 1/2	Arizona	Arizona
St. Louis	- 5 1/2	Detroit	St. Louis
Cleveland	- 2 1/2	Oakland	Oakland
Jacksonville	- 2 1/2	Washington	Washington
Cincinnati	- 6 1/2	New England	New England
Chicago	- 3 1/2	Seattle	Chicago
Philadelphia	- 10 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay

As far as upsets, I think Houston, Baltiomore, Oakland and Washington will win their games.

Game 161 and other thoughts

Well, as far as I am concerned last nights game sums up the last third of the season. A 1 run game gets derailed by the inablility of Timlin to close the deal. At least the streak is over because when we wake up on Monday morning the Sox will be looking up at both the spankees and the jays.

Once again, the phrase through out New England will be "wait till next year".

College football was pretty good today. Watched most of the Florida Alabama game. No matter what the scoreboard shows this game was close. A late interception return for a TD finally put the game away. I really thought that Florida would win this one by a bigger margin. They had the revenge factor going for them, the hangover effect due to Alabama's choke last week against my beloved Razorbacks and the coach factor was in their favor also. They surprised me though as their defense came to play and the running game was solid. I now wouldn't be surprised if Bama went 5 and 2 the rest of the way to close with an 8 and 4 record.

I can't believe that I picked Utah to beat Boise State. I watched most of the first half of this game also ( I love PIP). Boise State is a lot better than I thought. Will be interesting to see how their season goes.

Still, all in all, I can't complain as I went 8 and 2 for the week. After 5 weeks (remember I'm not picking against the spread) the record stands at 40 and 10.

College Football picks week 5

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football. Just as a recap, last week I went 10 and 0 which brought my season picks to 32 and 8. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Navy	1	Connecticut	UCONN
Bowling Green	2	Ohio	BG
Purdue	6	Notre Dame	ND
Boise St.	5	Utah	Utah
Alabama	8	Florida	Florida
Oregon	4	Arizona St.	Oregon
Northwestern	7	Penn State	Penn St.
Georgia	9	Mississippi	Georgia
Washington	3	Arizona	Washington
Ohio St.	10	Iowa	Ohio St.

Really no surprises here unless you want to say that #22 Boise State being beat by Utah is a surprise. This was really a tough choice for me, but I feel like Utah has the advantage by being at home.

Another tough game to pick was the Navy - Uconn game. As you can see from my email address being an ex swabbie I almost always root for the goats, but I live in Connecticut. In this case the home town team wins.

Possible blow out of the week, Florida over Alabama. I watched the entire Bama Arkansas game last week (and yes I had my hog hat on) and I really think that the loss in double overtime of a game that everybody who follows College Football knows they should have won will just devastate the Bama team. Plus I have no faith in the coaching abilities of Shula.

game 160 - Vs Orioles 16th of 18

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

The final 3 games of the season (thank god) start tonight. There is only one reason to watch these last three games. BIG PAPI. Can he drive over 55? We'll, see, but I hope he knocks out 8 in these three games (before the massacre had him picked for 62). Tavarez tonight against Bedard who is 2 and 1 this year against the sox with his las 2 games being Gems.

Go Sox, Go razorbacks, Go cowboys. See you tommorrow.

ESPN.com preview is here.
Yahoo sports preview here.
MLB.com press pass here.

game 159 - Vs TB 19th of 19

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

A couple of thoughts on Becketts year:

1) 32 games started this year, for his career 135 starts.
2) Career highs in starts, wins, losses and innings.
3) A 4.82 ERA this year which is not great, but is not horrible either.
4) Last 10 games he is 3 and 5 with a 4.95 ERA.
5) Last 5 games he is 2 and 2 with a 2.91 ERA.

What does all of this mean? Beats me, but it looks like as the team went so did Beckett, but since that Angels game where he got the split finger, Beckett has been a different pitcher.

Only reason to watch this team right now is to see how many Ortiz smacks out of the park this year. Was good to see Gammons being loquacious last night on NESN, one of the few Red Sox Nation prayers that were answered this year.

Playoffs, is it the Padres? or the Dodgers? Decisions decisions. Right now I lean toward LA LA land.

ESPN.com preview is here.
Yahoo sports preview here.
MLB.com press pass here.

game 158 - Vs TB 18th of 19

No stats, not much to talk about as the season continues to wind down. I really wish the Sox had been able to do a Tejada for Manny trade this spring. At least then we wouldn't be filled day in and day out on Manny watches.

As a side note, the Rays have to take both games to have a winning record vs the Sox this year. Look at that sentence again! The Sox have to win one of these two games to avoid a losing record vs the Rays. A team that only has 1 winning record vs any teams (any guesses?). What a disater this year became.

Oh yeah, thanks to that dismantling of the Falcons last night I ended up going 9 and 5 vs the spread last week. YEAH BOY!!!!

ESPN.com preview is here.
Yahoo sports preview here.
MLB.com press pass here.

Game 157 - Vs Jays (19th of 19) and other crap.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

Today's matchup has Wakefield vs Marcum. Wakefield's history against the Blue Jays looks fairly good, while Marcum's is good but is small with no start's.

Wakefield will end up with a losing record this year. Which is too bad because he has pitched better than his record indicates. Against the Blue Jays in Toronto, Timmy looks fairly good. Let us hope he pitches one of his better games today because a loss would drop the Sox into 3rd place in the division.

Moving on to other things:

1) Went 10 and 0 on the College Picks

2) Am 8 and 5 so far on the Pro's

3) Just heard Gammons interview on WEEI from Friday?, not sure when it was originally but it appears that Coco never fully recovered from his finger injury. After watching Manny pull his Manny being Manny crap over the last 20 + games while at the same time Coco, Schilling, Loretta, Lowell, Youkilis and others were out there playing while hurt because they know that not only is it a game but it is also their JOB, just makes me want to puke about this season.

4) Only six more games this season and part of me wants the Jays to finish in second just to break the streak.

ESPN.com preview is here.
Yahoo sports preview here.
MLB.com press pass here (Sunday's pass). If there is one for today it should be here.

NFL - Week Three

Well its week 3 of the NFL and time for my picks of today's games. Last week I went 11 and 5 to bring the total to 18 and 14 for the first 2 weeks. Of course what I would really like is to be as good as I was yesterday in the college games (yeah, baby, 10 and 0).

Here are my picks for this week:

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
Inianapolis	- 8 1/2	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Chicago	- 3 1/2	Minnesota	Chicago
Washington	- 3 1/2	Houston	Washington
Buffalo	- 5 1/2	New York J	NY Jets
Miami	- 10 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Carolina	- 3 1/2	Tampa Bay	Carolina
Pittsburgh	- 2 1/2	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh
Detroit	- 6 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay
Baltimore	- 6 1/2	Cleveland	Cleveland
Seattle	- 3 1/2	New York G	NY Giants
Philadelphia	- 6 1/2	San Francisco	Philadelphia
Arizona	- 4 1/2	St. Louis	Arizona
New England	- 6 1/2	Denver	Denver
Atlanta	- 3 1/2	New Orleans	N'awlins

As far as upsets, I think Green Bay, Jacksonville, Ny Jets, and the Giants to win outright.

Saturday games - football and sox

Ok, sorry, but I have nothing to say about the loss at Toronto because it was on at the same time as my Razorbacks. Was too busy sweating bullets and yelling at the freshman QB for the hogs to even go back and forth. How about them Hogs.

Game 155 vs Toronto 17 of 19

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

MLB.Com's pitching matchup:

Scouting Report:

The 28-year-old from Nicaragua will make his first Major League start. Hansack is fresh off of pitching Double-A Portland to the Eastern League Championship. He went 8-7 with a 3.26 ERA in 31 games for Portland this season, 18 of which were starts. Hansack was signed by the Red Sox last December as a Minor League free agent. He previously spent four years in the Astros' farm system.

Burnett threw a solid seven innings against the Yankees last time out but was hurt by two-run homers by Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. The loss was just Burnett's third in his last nine starts. The Blue Jays right-hander has recorded 29 strikeouts compared to just eight walks in his last 31 innings.

Burnett has been a pain this year against the sox throwing a complete game in a 5-1 win on the 2nd of this month. Even though he is 8 and 8 he has a very respectable ERA of 3.97.

This is really a thank you start (in my opinion) for Hansack since he just helped the minor league team to a championship. Not sure what to expect but it would be nice to see Manny in the lineup to help protect Ortiz.
ESPN's preview here.
Yahoo's preview here.
MLP.com's press pass is here.

College Picks week 4

Well another Saturday and we know what that means. Yep, that's right, its time for College Football. Just as a recap, last week I went 6 and 4 which brought my season picks to 22 and 8. My picks this week in the College Pickem at ESPN are as follows:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Wisconsin	5	Michigan	Michigan
Minnesota	4	Purdue	Purdue
Iowa St.	8	Texas	Texas
W. Virginia	3	E. Carolina	W. Virginia
Kentucky	6	Florida	Florida
Boston College	1	N. C. St.	N. C. St.
Notre Dame	7	Michigan St.	Notre Dame
USC	9	Arizona	USC
Arizona St.	2	California	Cal
Penn ST.	10	Ohio St.	Ohio St.

surprising Picks This Week: NC ST. over BC. I just don't think that BC is that good, but am not that confident about it since I only have this as a 1 pick. The rest are pretty much by the board (#20 Cal would be a slight upset over #18 Arizona ST.). The game I think is most likely to become a blow out is the Notre Dame game. Look for ND to come out steaming in this one.

Game 150 vs the Twins

From MLB.com:

Talk about big shoes to fill. Garza will step in for Francisco Liriano, who will miss the rest of the season with a sore elbow. The Twins don't expect Garza to give them the same results, of course, but they will need him to keep the team in games. The Twins are 2-4 in his six starts and only two of his outings have been considered quality starts.

The dependable knuckleballer took a 4-0 loss to the Orioles in his return from the disabled list last week. The big thing was that Wakefield suffered no ill effects from the stress fracture in his right ribcage that kept him off the mound for seven weeks. Wakefield is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 10 starts at Fenway this season. He lost his only previous start to the Twins this season, giving up eight hits and three earned runs over six innings.

As usual all stats are from the Day by Day database at Baseball Musings.

Wakefield goes tonight and I expect big things from the knuckler. Timmy is 5 and 0 in 11 games (8 starts) against the Twinkies at Fenway Park. His Era is a sparkling 3.36 and half of his starts against the Twins have been quality starts. He averages 7.8 k's per 9 in those games and only 2.2 average BB's. Look for Tim to dominate tonight.

Yahoo's preview here.
ESPN's preview here.
Mlb.com's press pass is currently showing Sunday's game here. If there is a new one it will be here.

NFL football week 2

***** Tuesday's Update *****

Finished the week 11 and 5 Atta boy

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*** Updated - So after Sunday's games I went 10 and 5, not great, but not horrible. It was good to see three of the four dogs that I had picked to win out right to do so. Only surpises of the day for me were the results of the Tampa and Skins games. Is Tampa Bay's offense really that bad? Will the Redskins beat anybody in the East with that offense? Both teams looked simply horrible. ***

Along with playing the college pickem at ESPN, I am also playing the Pigskin Pick'em. Last week I won a whopping 7 games (all picks are against the spread). Can't do much worse than that, but this week is a different story. Home team underdogs are in bold.

Favorite	Spread	Underdog	Pick
Carolina	-2 1/2	Minnesota	Minnesota
Chicago	- 8 1/2	Detroit	Chicago
Indianapolis	- 13 1/2	Houston	Indianapolis
New Orleans	- 1 1/2	Green Bay	Nawlins
Philadelphia	- 3 1/2	N Y Giants	Giants
Baltimore	- 8 1/2	Oakland	Oakland
Atlanta	- 5 1/2	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay
Cincinnati	- 10 1/2	Cleveland	Cincinnati
Miami	- 6 1/2	Buffalo	Buffalo
Seattle	- 7 1/2	Arizona	Arizona
St. Louis	- 3 1/2	San Francisco	San Fran
San Diego	- 10 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee
Denver	- 10 1/2	Kansas City	Kansas City
New England	- 6 1/2	N Y Jets	New England
Dallas	- 5 1/2	Washington	Washington
Pittsburgh	- 1 1/2	Jacksonville	Jacksonville

I expect Minnesota, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco to win out right. All other underdogs I just expect them to cover the spread.

Last 2 games vs the Yankees

***** UPDATE: Thanks to Youkilis, the spankees have to keep the champagne on ice one more day. ********

The last two games vs the Yankees this year. Right now Yankees lead 11 games to 6 in this season series. My only hope is that the Sox get at least a split, yes I know the division race is over, but hey, let them celebrate later in the week.

First game has Snyder versus Wright. Two up and down pitchers facing each other. For Kyle's career stats you can see them here. Jaret Wright's stats are here.

This is just the type of game that the bats should be out in force. Wright's stats vs the Sox are horrofic. A 6.45 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) with a 2 and 5 record. The good news with Snyder is he has had ok, bad, ok, bad games. His last game he got lit up, so he should be due for a good game. Let us hope so.

Yahoo's preview of the games is here.
Espn.com's preview of game one is here.

As for the Second Game, I know Tek played last night, but I am begging you Tito, play him in the first game, not the second game today. The man is like 0 forever against Mussina. Please, please, don't have him playing the second game.

Espn.com's preview of game two is here.

1st game done

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings.

First game done and the Sox won. This was the Beckett we expected to see this year, 6 innings pitched, in and out of jams but only gave up the two runs on a (what else), Cano home run. In the last 5 games (including todays), Josh has pitched 32 innings with a 3.38 ERA. 4 of the 5 starts were quality starts and he went 2 and 2 in those games.

ESPN.com's 1st game recap is here.
Yahoo sports recap here.

2nd game ESPN.com preview is here.
2nd game Yahoo sports preview here.

College Picks

UPDATED: ********************************
My worst week yet, but I actually moved up in to the upper 3rd of the game. Went 6 and 4 yesterday with the Clemson and Florida wins being my big shockers. Of course Florida had to come from 10 down to win by one, and Clemson scored a TD with 8 seconds left in the game. Oh, well, that is the way it goes.

****************************************

Have been playing College pickem at ESPN.Com fantasy. So far I have gone 16 and 4 in my picks. So I feel like I have done a pretty decent job, until I realized that 39 percent of the people playing have done a better job. Oh, well, what can I say, just have to put the nose to the grindstone and do hours of research (right!!!), and pick better. So, here are my picks for this week:

Away Team	Confidence	Home team	Pick
Brigham Young	4	Boston College	Boston College
Iowa State	2	Iowa	Iowa
Michigan	3	Notre Dame	Michigan
LSU	1	Auburn	LSU
Miami (fl)	5	Louisville	Miami
Oklahoma	6	Oregon	Oregon
Texas Tech	7	Texas Christian	TCU
Clemson	10	Florida State	FSU
Nebraska	9	USC	USC
Florida	8	Tennessee	Tennessee

Really the surprise picks would be #13 Michigan over ND, #7 LSU over #4 Auburn, #15 Miami over #12 Louisville, #18 Oregon over #11 Oklahoma, and #17 Tennessee over # 6 Florida.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed yet this year and this rivalry tends to go in streaks. Right now Notre Dame has the winning streak (3 of last 4) but I look for that to end today. However, would not be surprised if touchdown jesus helped the home team, thus my low confidence of 3 out of 10.

LSU's quarterback is 16 and 2 as a starter. He also appears to be one of those kids who lives his life right. After reading the story about him in USA Today this week LSU has became my feel good root team (except for the day after Thanksgiving) for the rest of the year.

I expect Corker beat his players senseless this week preparing for this game. Middle of the road game since my confidence is 5 out of 10. Louisville has a good offense but I really think that Miami has the better players and the better team.

Oregon over Oklahoma in my view is not an upset. I really think that Oklahoma is rated way to high and Oregon could easily be a top 10 team by the end of the year.

Tennessee is playing at home, barely won last week against Air Force and Fulmer probably brought out the ice picks, the cattle prods and every other torture device available in the Volunteer state. Florida has not impressed me yet and I think we will soon see another fire coach website sprouting soon.

Back with a vengeance

Been a busy and also a horrible last couple of weeks. Unfortunately I get this way leading up to that DAY. The last few years, there was escape because of the Sox, but not this year.

So, here we are, coming down the home stretch, and there is no hope for the Sox this year to pull it out and make the playoffs. Personally, I think the loss of Wakefield was the beginning of the end this year. So, what do we look forward to in these last 3 weeks. I personally, think the Yankees, will not win the Series this year, I still have doubts about thier pitching in the playoffs. Will be interesting to watch that. Tonight we start the last 4 games against the Yankees this year. I fully expect to see them celebrate thier east division championship with the Sox in the other dugout.

Next year I want the following, A-Gon back at shortstop, Lowell at third, Youkilis at 1st, Wily Mo in right, Coco in center, Pedroia will be Ok as the second baseman. Keep Hinske as the Left handed bat off the bench who can play Right, 1st and 3rd. Would love to have Loretta stay around, but I expect he will be gone. Cora will be still available to come off the bench also. Lots of talk about Soriano at second base, but I just don't see it.

As far as pitching goes, I expect Foulke to be gone, Timlin gone. For starters I expect it to be Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield, Snyder and maybe Zito. Look for a big push by the Sox to get him. Papelbon, Hansen, and Delcarmen will be the anchors in the Pen.

********Breaking News - Game postponed tonight. 1 o'clock game tomorrow.****