Red Sox 07 Game 29

Saturday, May 5 Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome 7:10 PM ET

BOS Julian Tavarez, RHP (1-2, 7.58) Red Sox (19-9) @ MIN Johan Santana, LHP (3-2, 3.60) Twins (15-14)

Update: MLB.com press pass is here.

AL East Standings

Team	W	L	GB	L 10	Exp W	Exp L
Boston	19	9	-	7 - 3	19	9
Baltimore	13	16	6.5	2 - 8	14	15
Tampa Bay	13	16	6.5	5 - 5	11	18
Toronto	13	16	6.5	4 - 6	15	14
New York	12	15	6.5	4 - 6	15	12

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.

The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Red Sox: Tavarez was unable to pitch as long as six innings in any of his first four starts. He did record his first win in his last outing, giving up three hits and three runs over five-plus innings against the Yankees. His only blemish in that outing was a three-run homer to Doug Mientkiewicz. Tavarez has 11 strikeouts and eight walks in his 19 innings of work. Lifetime against the Twins, Tavarez is 2-2 with a 5.26 ERA in 16 games.

Twins: Santana continued to be so-so early in 2007 in his last start on Sunday against the Tigers. He gave up three runs over six innings, and didn't once retire the side in order. His ERA (3.60) is solid by most pitchers' standards, but the bar has been raised for Santana after winning two Cy Young Awards. Pitching at home usually is a good thing, but surprisingly, Santana has struggled at the Metrodome this season. He is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts in Minnesota.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
J. Lugo	19	4	0	1	0	1	1	4	.211
K. Youkilis	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000
D. Ortiz	8	2	0	0	1	1	3	5	.625
M. Ramirez	16	3	0	0	1	1	3	5	.188
J.D. Drew	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
M. Lowell	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	.125
J. Varitek	16	7	0	0	1	2	1	6	.438
C. Crisp	33	8	2	1	1	2	2	7	.242
D. Pedroia	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Totals	60	16	2	1	2	4	4	16	.267

From a hitting standpoint Santana owns these guys, well except for Varitek who has a great record versus this ace of a pitcher. Don't look for any help from the bench players as long as Johan is in the game. Only Hinske and Mirabelli have faced him previously and they are a combined 0 - 9. Still it would not surprise me if Wily Mo Pena is in the line up tonight since Manny has played in every game. Tito will probably give him a day off soon.

Historical Pitching line

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Tavarez	4	2	2	0	37 2/3	50	22	2	11	26	5.26
Santana	8	3	4	0	50 2/3	46	20	4	14	53	3.55

As Starters

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Tavarez	4	2	0	0	21 2/3	30	13	0	8	13	5.48
Santana	8	2	4	0	46	42	19	4	13	48	3.72

Here is what I found fascinating. Santana has made 3 relief appearances against the Sox with very good numbers. Of course his overall numbers are pretty good with an ERA at 3.55 but what is surprising is that he is 3 and 4 overall. Think about that! Here is a man who for his career is 81 and 33, or wins .711 percent of his starts with a 3.21 ERA. Against the Sox though he has a losing record and his ERA is .34 above his career. His ERA as a starter is up 1/2 a run. Truly amazing.

Julians last 2 starts against the Twins were both quality starts as he gave up only 2 runs in both starts. He has never started against the Twins as a Red Sox though.

I expect Julian to come out firing and locating his pitches well. This is the fifth time that he will be facing the opposing teams Ace (Millwood, Halladay twice and Wang). Every start he has made this year has been against the pitcher pitcher for the other team.

After last nights game Sox are 16 and 3 against teams who are .500 or better. I don't know about you but that seems to be a bad sign, especially since the rest of the AL East is below five hundred.