Thursday, May 17, 2007

Red Sox 07 Game 40

Thursday, May 17    Fenway Park  7:05 PM ET
Update: Repaired broken links. God I hate double headers.
UPDATE II: Press Pass is here.
Chad Durbin, RHP (3-1, 5.08) Tigers (24-14) @ Curt Schilling, RHP (4-1, 3.63) Red Sox (26-12)
Note: Team records are at 6:00 am on 5/17/2007. Game 39 preview is located here.

AL East Standings

Boston26 12 -7-3 27 11
New York 18 20 8.0 5-5 22 16
Toronto 18 22 9 5-5 18 22
Baltimore 18 23 9.5 4-6 19 22
Tampa 17 22 9.5 4-6 14 25

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.
From MLB.Com Scouting Report

Tigers: Durbin is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last four starts, the latest being a win last Saturday at the Metrodome in which he held the Twins scoreless until a two-run sixth. By working ahead in counts with regularity, he has forced opposing batters to hit his two-strike pitch, often a sharp sinker for ground ball outs.

Red Sox: Schilling was on his way to another quiet gem in his last outing, backed by a fifth-inning rally and a 4-1 cushion on Saturday against the Orioles when he ran into trouble. After allowing four singles and a walk, he left the game with a no-decision and four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. He gave up nine hits during that time. It was the first time Schilling was unable to register a quality start since April 20 against the Yankees, and his third this season.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

J. Lugo110001001.000
K. Youkilis---------------------------
D. Ortiz30000021.000
M. Ramirez21001420.500
J.D. Drew42000100.500
M. Lowell---------------------------
J. Varitek31000011.333
C. Crisp---------------------------
D. Pedroia---------------------------

Small sample size here, but they have had good results against Durbin with the bats. I would not be surprised to see Mirabelli in this game or the first game. Also look for who didn't play in the first game today to play tonight. Tito might even give Manny a game off.

Historical Pitching line

Durbin21007 2/37821079.39

Durbin's only win came while he was a member of the Indians in May of 2004. That was in a relief role. His two starts saw him go 1 inning and 4 innings, giving up 3 and 4 runs. Has he became a better pitcher in the last 3 years? I really don't think so, look for the bats to come out swinging.

As a Red Sox Curt has made two starts vs Tigers. He had a no decision in both of those starts. In 13 innings he struck out 12, walked none and has a 2.77 ERA. Both of those games came last year. One you might remember was the game that was won by Youkilis hitting a 9th inning 2 run homer to make a winner of Seanez. The other game was on Ben Affleck's birthday and was the game in which Polanco was injured.

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