Recap MLB 07 - Game 7

Final score Boston 14 - Mariners - 3

Beckett comes out scorching retiring the first six Mariners he faced while the Home team put a 4 on the scoreboard in the first, followed by a 3 in the second. Josh throws 84 pitches - 61 for strikes in 7 innings allowing 2 hits (back to back in the 3rd), while striking out 8 and walking none. An excellent outing by the Texan.

Wondering about that dust up in the 8th? From the Globe's blog we find this story from 2005.

A good introduction to the fans by J.D. Drew - who went 1 - 2 with 3 rbi's including a Home run to center field in the second (NESN's play of the game) with Kevin Youkilis on second. All in all a good game by the home team. I just hope they saved a few runs for the next two games.

No press pass posted yet but I am sure one will be posted here.

MLB 07 - Game 7

Tuesday, April 10 Fenway Park 2:05 PM ET

Jeff Weaver, RHP (0-0, -.--) Mariners (2-1) @ Josh Beckett, RHP (1-0, 1.80) Red Sox (3-3)

Boston 1 game behind Toronto Tied with NYY and 1/2 game ahead of Orioles. Opener of the series.

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Coming off a victory against the Royals, Beckett takes the mound in Boston's home opener for the second straight season. Against Kansas City on Wednesday, the right-hander tossed five strong innings, allowing a run on two hits while striking out five. In last year's Fenway opener, Beckett pitched seven stellar innings to beat the Jays. He's 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA vs. Seattle in two career starts.

Mariners: Weaver last pitched in a game on March 30 in Las Vegas against the Cubs. He had a mixed bag during Spring Training, looking like the pitcher who helped the Cardinals win a World Series. But he also had less impressive outings, and starts the season as the No. 5 starter. Weaver has a 54-73 career record and 4.59 ERA in the AL.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
J. Lugo	11	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	.273
K. Youkilis	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000
D. Ortiz	21	6	1	0	2	4	4	1	.286
M Ramirez	21	6	0	0	3	6	4	3	.286
J.D. Drew	11	2	0	0	1	2	1	6	.182
M Lowell	8	3	0	0	1	2	2	0	.375
J Varitek	19	8	1	0	2	5	4	2	.421
C Crisp	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	98	29	2	0	9	20	16	14	.296

This would be a good game to start Hinske who is batting 400 against Weaver with 6 RBI's.

Historical Pitching lines

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Weaver	13	3	4	0	72 2/3	82	49	20	30	45	6.07
Beckett	2	1	1	0	13 2/3	16	8	1	2	11	5.27

Weaver is 3 - 0 in his last 8 appearances against the Sox with 5.20 ERA. The walks have always helped the Sox against this pitcher. Beckett's games against the Mariners include a start as a Marlin. In his start against the Mariners last year in Fenway he went 7 innings giving up only 1 earned run for his win. Look for a similar start today.

MLB.Com press pass should be here.

Recap MLB 07 - Game 6

Final score Boston 3 - Texas 2. Boston wins the final game of the 3 game series in Texas ending their opening road trip at a 3 and 3 mark.

Where do we begin? How about we start with our players of the game? Big Papi, Schilling and Papelbon all share the honors.

Big Papi gets 3 RBI's with a 1st inning solo shot and a 3rd inning home run with Cora on 2nd base. These were the first home runs he has hit this year and only his 4th RBI. Good to see him hitting the ball hard, let us hope that the off day tomorrow does not cool him off.

Schilling shares the honor by going 7 strong innings allowing only 1 run on a Catalanotto home run on a 2 - 1 pitch in the 1st. Schilling set down the last ten batters he faced in a row. Most notable of these 10 was the lead off at bat in the 6th by Catalanotto. After being behind 3 - 0 to Mr. Nemesis, the next 6 pitches were for strikes with the end result of a fly out to J.D. Drew. The next two batters were retired on 5 pitches. In my opinion the ability to come back from 3 - 0 in a tight ball game was just huge. On my notepad I gave Schilling 5 stars. He followed that inning with an 8 pitch inning in the 7th.

Papelbon also gets equal billing due to his ability to come in with runners on 1st and 3rd with only 1 out and the score at 3 to 2. He then strikes out Young on 4 pitches and gets Teixeira to pop out to Lowell preserving the 1 run lead on only 5 pitches. With the off day tomorrow this allowed Tito to trot him out in the 9th were he got Sosa to pop up to Youkilis on the 2nd pitch, struck out Blalock on 5 pitches and blew Wilkerson away on 3 pitches.

Freaking outstanding and a good way to end the road trip.

Other idle thoughts. should have been 16 in a row by Schilling. From the last out in the 3rd the only man to reach was Blalock in the 4th. After Schilling had him at 1 - 2 in the count his 4th pitch looked like a strike only for the umpire to say ball 2, the next pitch Blalock hit a foul ball down the left field line that just fell in between Ramirez, Lowell and Lugo. If any one of those three had been able to reach that foul ball then he wouldn't have had a chance to hit the next pitch into left field for a single.

Almost Goat of the game was Pineiro for walking the first 2 batters he faced and allowing a bunt single on 14 pitches. He can thank Lopez and Papelbon for saving him from the horns.

Nice running catch by Coco in the 3rd leading to an inning ending double play. At the plate it looked like Coco was feeling more comfortable also, which can only lead to better things in the future. I still say he should be batting 2nd in this line up though.

I also charted during the game the first 3 pitches for each batter that Schilling faced. By my count he had 1 K on three pitches, struck out 3 batters when the count was 1 and 2 ( 7 instances with all outs except for a single in the 4th) and with the count 2 and 1 he gave up the home run, a single, a walk but recorded 1 k and had three other outs. The only time he went 3 and 0 he got Catalanotto to fly out to Drew. All in all a good game by # 38.

Is Lester the answer?

Over at Talk Sox they are generating a petition to get rid of Tavares. Looking through the thread I see that a lot of people are putting a lot of faith in Lester to be the 5th starter. My question is why?

Don't get me wrong, I think his return to baseball while battling cancer is a great story but in my humble opinion there is no way that he is ready to return to the big leagues. He needs at least another season in the minors. Lets take a look at his 15 starts last year to see why I feel that way.

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	A IP	H /9	BB/9	K/9	Whip	5IP	5 -6	6+	QS
15	7	2	0	81.1	91	43	7	43	60	4.76	5.42	10.07	4.76	6.64	1.65	7	0	6	5

Think about this, Lester made 15 starts and went 5 innings in 7 of them, 6 innings in 3, and 6+ in 3. Out of these 15 starts 1/3 of them were quality starts (mainly because he can't get to 6 innings) when you want at least 2/3 's to be quality starts. Look at his WHIP, it is way over 1 (446th in MLB, 217 in AL last year). I am sorry but this is not someone that deserves the #5 slot in the rotation. You have to be in the top 100 to deserve that and he is not even close in any categories. Send him down to the minors and keep him there until he starts dominating AAA.

Recap MLB 07 - Game 5

Not much to say, Tavares was cruising then wham 4 runs scored putting the Sox behind 4 - 2. A Varitek double closes the gap to 4 - 3 and then wham Romero gives up 5 straight hits, including a 2 run homer to Sosa and the game is essentially over thanks to the anemic offense known as the Boston Red Sox.

All 5 starters have pitched with mixed results. Schilling blew up, Beckett was solid, Matsuzaka was brillant, Wakefield was a tough luck pitcher and tonight's fiasco. The first 5 games the starting pitchers have only produced 2 quality starts and our record is 1 - 1 in those 2 games. Not the type of start that this staff should have produced.

Schilling takes the mound for the last game of the road trip and the series. He needs to step up and provide a good performance to stop the bleeding or this becomes a disastrous road trip. A loss on Sunday will really hurt.

UPDATE: Press pass for this game located here.

MLB 07 - Game 6

Sunday, April 8 Rangers Ballpark in Arlington 8:05 PM ET

C. Schilling, RHP (0-1, 11.25) Red Sox (2-3) @ V. Padilla, RHP (0-1, 11.57) Rangers (2-3)

Third and last game of series and of the six game opening road trip. Rangers have won the first 2.

Boston 1/2 game behind Tampa Bay, Yankees and Toronto.

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com Scouting Report:

Red Sox: The big right-hander had an uncharacteristic lack of command on Opening Day, giving up eight hits and five runs over four innings of a 7-1 loss. It was Schilling?s shortest start in a Boston uniform. The Rangers represent a good opportunity for Schilling to bounce back. He is 4-0 with a 3.82 ERA in eight lifetime appearances against Texas. Last year, Schilling was 2-0 against the Rangers with a 3.86 ERA.

Rangers: Padilla makes his first start of the season at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington where he was 8-5 with a 4.80 ERA in 17 starts last year. He was 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox last year and is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA against them in his career. Manny Ramirez is 1-for-8 with four strikeouts in his career against Padilla while J.D. Drew is 6-for-14 with a home run.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter (V. Padilla).

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
J. Lugo	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.667
K. Youkilis	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	.500
D. Ortiz	7	2	2	0	0	2	2	0	.286
M Ramirez	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.125
J.D. Drew	14	6	2	0	1	4	3	1	.429
M Lowell	32	7	3	0	0	6	2	3	.219
J Varitek	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	.500
C Crisp	7	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	.714
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Totals	77	26	10	0	1	13	9	10	.338

This would be a good game to let Cora play, especially since Cora is 6 for 17 against Padilla in his career.

Historical Pitching lines

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Schilling *	3	4	0	0	24 1/3	21	9	3	2	23	3.33
Padilla	3	1	1	0	16	21	9	9	5	16	5.06

* Schilling's stats are as a Red Sox. In all 3 starts he has went at least 7 innings. His worst game was last July 20 with a line of 7 -10 - 4 - 4 - 0 - 1 - 6. Not a great game but not bad either. The last time he faced the Rangers in Texas was 4/3/2006. His line for that game was 7 - 5 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 5, lets hope we get that type of start from him in this start.

There are two things in play for this game:

1. Schilling is a blowhard who is on the downward slide of his career and the sooner we get rid of him the better (everybody but me and Callahan)
   
2. After a humilating loss to KC the real Schilling will appear and will post a game similar to 4/3/2006.

Personally I think Schilling will win 16-18 games this year. I also expect this to be his last year in Boston. Look for the real Schilling to appear in this game, however I expect the bats to let us down so 50 - 50 for a win.

.176 batting average? should we panic?

So, 4 games into the season and the team has a .227 BA, .309 OBP, .326 SLG and .634 OPS. If you take out Pedroia (.385), Drew (.357) and Ramirez (.286) the team average drops to .176.
The other 8 guys only Lowell(.250) and Lugo (.267) are over the mendoza line.

This team needs to start hitting and now would be the best time for that.

Meanwhile in the Bronx - the Orioles blow another one (3 run HR by Giambi in 8th) as A - Rod hits a grand salami in the 9th to win 10 - 7. I hate the Orioles!

MLB 07 - Game 5

Julian Tavarez, RHP (0-0, -.--) Red Sox (2-1) @ Kevin Millwood, RHP (0-1, 5.40) Rangers (0-3)

Rangers lead series 1 -0.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Red Sox (2-2) trail Tampa Bay (yes Tamapa Bay) 1/2 game. Lead Toronto and NYY by 1/2 game

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.com Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Tavarez excelled last September when he moved into the starting rotation, going 3-0 with a 4.01 ERA. Of Tavarez's 700 career appearances, 85 have been starts. Tavarez pitched a complete-game victory over the Blue Jays on Sept. 22, leading the Red Sox to a 7-1 win. Tavarez is 2-3 with a 5.86 ERA against the Rangers in 19 career appearances.

Rangers: The Rangers are skipping their fifth starter because of off-days so Millwood and the others can pitch on their normal five days' rest. Millwood is 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox. He was 7-7 with a 5.38 ERA at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington last year but was 4-3 with a 3.91 ERA in his final seven starts. Five of those seven were quality starts.

Expected Batters vs Starting pitcher.

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
J. Lugo	12	3	0	0	0	0	3	1	.250
K. Youkilis	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	.250
D. Ortiz	9	5	0	0	3	7	2	0	.556
M Ramirez	14	4	0	0	1	1	0	5	.286
J.D. Drew	18	5	1	0	1	5	4	5	.278
M Lowell	49	14	4	1	1	10	6	8	.286
J Varitek	18	7	2	0	0	3	2	3	.389
C Crisp	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Totals	130	39	8	1	6	26	18	25	.300

Pretty good Avg by Varitek and Ortiz who both hit Millwood well. Maybe he is the pitcher to get them going this season. At least we can always hope.

Historical Pitching lines

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Tavarez	1	3	2	0	35 1/3	40	23	6	14	19	5.86
Millwood	9	3	3	0	54 2/3	49	25	7	16	39	4.12

Tavarez hasn't pitched well against the Rangers in the past. Lets hope that being a starter will change his history.

Recap MLB 07 - Game 4

Wakefield goes six strong. A good strong outing by Wakefield today, I'll take 6 innings with only 1 earned run every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Too, bad the bats couldn't match his pitching, oh that's right, I predicted they would suck against Tejeda.

Okajima and Snyder did well also as they put up 2 innings of no runs. A fairly quick game also as it went 2:14 hours. In today's game that is lightning fast.

In some ways this season has been snake bit as far as pitching match ups. As I stated in the Game 1 preview, it could be ugly in KC since Schilling's last two outings in KC had produced an 8.02 ERA. If this hadn't been opening day, its possible that Schilling doesn't even pitch. Then of course you have the Wakefield history in Texas. That is two games based on stats where you wish that it had been different starting pitchers.

Why I want Coco batting 2nd (.312 BA and .357 OBA) and Youkilis batting 6th (.389 BA and .421 OBA). Top of the eight and Youkilis hits a dribbler down the line with Lugo on 1b, Blalock throws Youk out by a 1/2 step. Same situation, Coco hits the same type of ground ball and its 1st and 2nd with 1 out and Papi coming up to bat.

Sox fall into tie for first with the Yankees and Toronto playing later tonight.

Good Friday's

The nice thing about Good Friday is it allows me to watch the Sox by giving me a day off. Yippee for holidays, now it would be nice if the bats actually helped me out by scoring some runs for Wakefield. 2 - 0 Rangers as we speak going into the sixth.

MLB 07 - Game 4

Update: Wakefield's day is over, he goes 6 innings and gives up only 2 runs (1 earned) on an excuse me single by Sosa and a Laird single (if Manny had thrown the ball on the fly to Mirabelli would have been an out). This was a good start by Wakefield and is the 2nd quality start in a row by the Sox. This also lowers Wakefields ERA to 5.31 in starts in Texas.

Wakefield Vs Tejeda - Rangers home opener

Boston 1/2 game ahead of the Yankees and Toronto. Opener of the series.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com - Scouting Report:

Red Sox: The veteran knuckleballer looks forward to bouncing back after an injury-riddled 2006. This is Wakefield's 13th season with the Red Sox. Wakefield's 1,570 strikeouts with the Red Sox rank him third on the team's all-time list, trailing only Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Wakefield will try to improve his history in Texas, where he is 4-10 lifetime with a 5.95 ERA. Last year against the Rangers, Wakefield was 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA..

Royals: Tejeda had the lowest ERA of any Rangers starter with at least 14 starts. He was 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA in his last nine starts. He made three starts against the Angels last year and was 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. He was 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA in nine road starts. He was the Rangers Player of the Month for September, the only time that a pitcher won the award in 2006.


So lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus Tejada.

NOBODY HAS FACED HIM - this is bad, very bad, the Sox as a rule suck against someone they have never faced. As we go along you will see why I think this could be a disaster.

Wakefield vs the Rangers Overall

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
21	7	13	0	134 2/3	154	91	24	53	109	6.08

Those are his overall numbers, lets look at his numbers as a starter:
Wakefield vs the Rangers Starts

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
21	7	11	0	125 1/3	146	85	24	49	101	6.10

Horrible, just horrible, is there any hope? Lets just look at his numbers as a starter in Texas:
Wakefield at the Rangers

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
12	4	8	0	73 2/3	77	46	9	30	54	5.62

Strangely in some cases these are better than his numbers at Fenway:
Wakefield Fenway vs Rangers

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
9	3	3	0	51 2/3	69	39	15	19	47	6.79

His ERA in Texas is over a run less and his WHIP is .25 better. Unfortunately, that is the only two things better and they are just horrible.

So what do I expect to see? The boys had better get the bats moving or it will be a long, long, long day for the Sox and their faithful. Oh, thats right, the boys usually suck against someone they have never seen before (banging head against desk).
If the Sox win I will be pleasantly surprised.

UPDATE: No new pass for this game. Link is fixed to take you to latest press pass. If there is a press pass it will be found here.

Recap MLB 07 - Game 3

Well, colored me surprised. Only was able to hear parts of the first 7+ innings on the radio, but what I heard was very encouraging. I got home just in time to see the bottom of the 8 and the 9th inning, so I didn't get to see the national obsession pitch. So, don't ask me how he looked because I don't know, but the boys on the radio made it sound like not only was he in control but he had the Royals guessing on each at bat.

I said 110 pitches and he went 108, however I thought that would be in 6 innings not 7. At Seth's I had a line of 5 2/3, 3 hits, 4 walks, 6 k's , and 3 runs with 2 being earned. So, really the only thing surprising to me is the 7 innings and he did seem to have a good idea of the strike zone.

Glad to see Pedroia is doing well at the plate, if he can get 3 or 4 more hits in Texas his first time up at Fenway should be a good reception. Varitek looks lost at the plate, I mean like he is on the island lost. Coco has hit the ball well, but usually right at someone, so was good to hear him get the hit that provided an insurance run and was the final run scored in the game. Now he needs to crank it up in Texas.

All in all, what you want when you visit KC right now, take 2 out of 3 all year long and you will be in very good shape.

Game 4 preview later.

MLB 07 - Game 3

Today is the day, the Dice Man makes his debut against the KC Royals. Will have to listen to this one on the radio as will be out and about trying to make a living (hey, baby needs a new pair of shoes).

Boston 1/2 game back behind the Yankees tied with Toronto. Series is tied at 1.


As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

ESPN.Coms preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com - Scouting Report:

Red Sox: After months of anticipation, Matsuzaka finally makes his official
debut in a Red Sox uniform. At least during Spring Training, he appeared ready
to live up to his lofty billing. Matsuzaka was a legend in Japan during his
eight-year career with the Seibu Lions. He went 108-60 with a 2.95 ERA while
producing 1,355 strikeouts. Matsuzaka also led Japan to victory in the Inaugural
World Baseball Classic. En route to the MVP award, Matsuzaka went 3-0 with a
1.38 ERA.

Royals: Greinke, a 2002 first-round pick, spent most of last season with
Double-A Wichita, where he went 8-3 with a 4.34 ERA in 18 games. He was a
September callup after the Texas League playoffs and made three relief
appearances. Greinke had a spectacular Spring Training to earn a rotation slot.


So lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus Greinke.
Starting 9 vs Greinke

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's
J Lugo	5	2	0	1	0	1	1	0
K Youkilis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D Ortiz	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
M Ramirez	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J.D. Drew	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M Lowell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J Varitek	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1
C. Crisp	21	5	1	1	0	1	0	2
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	39	11	2	2	1	4	2	3

Not a lot of history here but Lugo and Drew own this guy. Look for the top of the order to come out and set the tone for the rest of the lineup.

Greinke vs the Sox

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
1	0	1	0	7	9	5	1	2	3	6.43

Only the one start and it was a loss.

So, what do I expect to see? Look for Matsuzaka to struggle with walks. I know he is supposed to be a control pitcher, but the strike zone is smaller than he is used to seeing in the Nippon leagues. I think he is another nibbler, similar to Clement but with better stuff. If he goes 6 and only throws 110 pitches or less I will be very surprised. As for Greinke, I expect the Sox to hit him hard and often.

Update: guess ther won't be any press pass so removed link.

Recap MLB 07 - Game 2

The Sox garner their first win of the season behind 5 solid innings of pitching by Beckett. If I had a complaint about his performance it would be to many walks (4 in 5 innings) doesn't cut it with me. However, since he only gave up the two hits that is ok. I also agree with the Joy of Sox commenter who thought he was getting squeezed.

Biggest AB of the night - Lowell with men on 2 and 3 with two outs doubling down the line.

3 Errors for Lowell! Not sure who quoted him (I think it was the herald insider), but Lowell stated that the cold effects the fielders more than anything else in a game. The glove feels like ice, well, you called that one buddy.

Will have the game 3 preview up later.

MLB 07 - Game 2

Beckett vs Perez - Game time is at 8:10 p.m.
Boston is 1 game back behind Toronto and NY Yankees.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Espn.com's preview is here.
Yahoo Sports is here.
ESPN's recap will be here.

from MLB.com -

Red Sox: Beckett is hoping to be more consistent in his second year in Boston. Still, he did achieve career-highs last year in wins and innings. Beckett pitched his best game of last season against the Royals, firing eight shutout innings. On the road, he was 9-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Beckett's 31 wins over the last two seasons rank eighth in the Major Leagues. Beckett has limited opponents to a .239 average over his first five seasons.

Royals: In his lone start against the Red Sox last season, Perez gave up three runs, two earned, on five hits in six innings, while striking out a season-high 10 batters in a no-decision. He left with a 5-3 lead, but the bullpen couldn't hold on to the lead.

So lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus Perez.

Starting 9 vs Perez

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's
J. Lugo	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Youkilis	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
D. Ortiz	6	4	1	1	1	3	0	0
M Ramirez	8	2	1	0	0	2	1	2
J.D. Drew	7	2	1	0	0	2	1	3
M Lowell	14	2	0	0	1	2	5	1
J Varitek	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	2
C Crisp	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	52	15	4	1	2	9	11	12

The starting 9 have a .288 BA against Perez, .413 OBP, .519 slugging, strike out once every 5 plate appearances and walk once every 6. Of course what kills them is Lowell's numbers. If you throw out his .145 BA etc., then the team is batting .342 with a .545 OBP, .658 slugging and would K and BB once every 4 plate appearances.

Do you think Lugo wishes the Sox had opened against somebody besides Meche And Perez? Career wise he is combined 0 - 12 (including his 3 k's last night).

Perez vs Sox

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
3	0	1	0	19	16	7	1	6	23	3.32

So besides the game last year he has faced the Sox two other times, with a 5 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 3 - 6 and 8 - 5 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 7 line. So, he has pitched really well 2 out of 3 times with his worse game being 6 years ago. After the Schillacking (stole that from Ian Browne) of yesterday I was really hoping for a pitcher that the Sox have dominated. Is that the light at the end of the tunnel or another train coming.

Lets look at Beckett's numbers:

Beckett Vs KC

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
3	1	0	0	22	18	6	0	2	15	2.45

He started 3 games against them last year and with 2 quality starts and went 8 innings in the 1st and 3 rd start against them. Jumping out at me is the 0 HR's and only 2 walks.

What is that old saying? You are only as good as the next starting pitcher? I feel good about this game tomorrow.

Update: if there is a press pass it will be found here.

March Madness 2007 edition VII

Its for all of the marbles tonight. Will OSU get its revenge and beat Florida and ride off into the night with its first national championship in decades? My money is on Florida, well if I had any money to spare on a bet.

As for the women, it looks like all things are go for another Rocky Top win against Rutgers. See you after the game!

Recap MLB 07 - Game 1

Only one thing to say about today's game. UGLY! I hate to say it but I was right (look at the last line). Of course the Schilling haters will be gloating and saying that is why we don't renew contracts for 40 year old pitchers. I have two words for those people, frag off! One game does not make a season.

The recap at espn.com is here.
yahoo sports has theirs here.

I waited months for this shellacking. Varitek and Lugo of course did their usual suckery against Meche. Jeez, there is nothing here that is rosy. The offense sucked, the starting pitching sucked, the bull pen did alright, and Pedroia showed that he can swing the bat. That is all that can be said, jeez this game sucked.

Kansas City has won 6 of the last 7 against the Sox. Beckett better be on his A game Wednesday or it will be 7 of the last 8.

Update - Schillings last 3 starts against the Royals:
2005 - 5 IP, 6 runs and last year 7 1/3 IP with 5 runs, throw in the 4 IP and 5 and that makes a 9.19 ERA in his last 3 starts.

You never know

Filed under the you never know who you will run into files, check out who is an assistant coach at South Florida. Didn't catch the whole conversation but during the NESN Friday night sports desk, he did burst out laughing at the spot on Pedroia. My feeling was that Tino isn't to impressed with the Sox 2nd baseman.

MLB 07 - Game 1

Monday at @ 4:10 the first pitch of the Red Sox season will be thrown by a Mr. Gil Meche to Mr. Julio Lugo in Kansas City, Mo. of the USA. With that pitch the hot stove season / off season will be done and another year of hopes and dreams will have commenced. As I have said before, I think this will be a very good year for the Red Sox. Off season acquistions of the aforementioned Lugo, J.D. Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka (yo Johnny - I see your number is now in use you idiot) and others has pushed the payroll to unseen level of 160 million.

Can the Sox win the division? Yes! Will they? Probably not, but it should be one heck of a ride this year.

Of course since this is a post about game 1 and since I am the stat geek of all stat geeks I have crunched the numbers and came up with the usual inane statistical crap that I always dig up and provide for you to peruse in preparation of game 1 of 162 games to be played this year.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference. Other links will be added as they are found, so lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus that master of pitchery (sarcasm is rampant), Gil Meche.

UPDATE: ESPN.com's preview is here.
Yahoo Sports is here.
ESPN's recap will be here.
(from MLB.com - This is the fifth straight time and the 11th time in the last 12 years that the Red Sox have opened on the road. The Red Sox are 51-54-1 on Opening Day and 30-37-1 in season openers away from Fenway Park.)

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's
J. Lugo	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Youkilis	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Ortiz	15	6	0	0	4	8	0	4
M Ramirez	18	5	1	0	1	5	2	6
J.D. Drew	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M Lowell	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J Varitek	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	2
C Crisp	12	5	1	0	1	1	1	0
D Pedroia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	72	21	3	0	6	14	5	15

Things that jump out at me - Lugo 0-7, and Varitek is 1 - 8 against Meche. All the others (except for Drew and Pedroia) have more than respectable numbers against the KC ace (god, how it must suck to be a Royals fan right now). Over all, these 7 players have a .321 OBP and .292 BA. So, the players have a good history against him as far as the lumber goes, but what about Meche's numbers vs the Sox? Lets take a look.

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
6	3	1	1	39 1/3	37	19	6	12	24	4.35

This could be worrisome - 3 and 1 vs the Sox in 6 games (last 5 here, here, here, here and here) with 3 of those games being quality starts. Is Meche another freaking Lilly / Lopez?

Lets look at the # 38's numbers:

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
4	2	2	0	31 1/3	32	16	4	5	27	4.6

Of course this includes 3 appearances as a reliever in 2005. Unfortunately if you look at his starts his numbers aren't any better and in some case are even worse.

GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR's	BB	K's	ERA
4	2	2	0	28 1/3	31	15	3	4	23	4.76

What is worrisome is that in 2004 he pitched two terrific games (W's) going 9 and 7 innings and allowing only 4 earned runs. In 2005 though - 5 IP, 6 runs and last year 7 1/3 IP with 5 runs.

So, what does this tell us? Things could be very ugly tomorrow.

UPDATE: MLB - Press Pass located here.

Tick, Tick, Tick - MLB 2007 almost here

Can't you hear it? Can't you feel it? Yes boys and girls, ladies and gentlemen, yankee lovers and spankee haters, 2007 baseball season is about to begin and I can't wait to see the green grass, the green monster, the smell of hot dogs and roasted peanuts (sorry, no sushi for me). Can the Sox win their second World Series in 4 years? Will A-Rod be booed out of New York? Will Big Papi finally win the MVP he so richly deserves? You freaking got me but sit back and open a cold one of your choice as the train starts rumbling out of the station called "America's past time".

Oh yeah, I added another link to the freaking side panel, stop by and tell Peter hello!

March Madness 2007 edition VI

Well, two games left in both the mens and womens games. Here we go, Florida beats UCLA by 1 thanks to a missed shot by UCLA at the Buzzer. Georgeotown, out works OSU and goes to the finals setting up a big east / SEC for all of the marbles. Oh, yes, Donovan takes the Kentucky job on tuesday.

For the women - Tennessee beats Rutgers for the entire thing. Working on a couple of things, see you later.

Women BB march madness III

Well the women will have two teams in their final 4 decided tonight. Personally, I think that the UCONN-LSU game will be quite good especially since it is a rematch from earlier this year. Here's my picks for this round

2007 Womens NCAA Elite 8 Round

Dallas	Dayton	Fresno	Greensboro
UNC	Tennessee	UCONN	Rutgers *

* - Originally I had Vanderbilt going to the finals.

The Ole Miss - Tennessee game should be interesting, but HOF Summit will rocky top her way to another Final 4.

March Madness 2007 edition V

Well, missed the A & M and Pittsburgh games (only because Law missed that layup). Still, looking good over all since 3 of the 4 I originally picked to make the final 4 are still playing (barely). Should be 2 very good games today and tomorrow.

2007 NCAA 4th Round

Midwest	West	East	South
Florida	Kansas	Georgetown *	Ohio St.

* - Originally I had Texas going to the finals.

Only one conference has a chance to get 2 teams in the final 4, that being what I considered a weak overall conference in the Pac 10. Would be an unusual tournament if they missed out since it seems like lately there is always one conference that gets 2 into the last weekend.

Women BB march madness II

So, started off 25 and 7 in round one only to go 10 & 6 in round 2. Now, here it is sweet sixteen time for the women and even though I have 7 of the great 8 teams alive, I've already lost a final four team in Vanderbilt. Still, a c+ for the picks so far.

Just because I am in a blogging mood today I will go ahead and post my great 8 picks for the women:

2007 Womens NCAA 3rd Round

Dallas	Dayton	Fresno	Greensboro
UNC	Tennessee	Connecticut	Duke
Purdue	Oklahoma	LSU	Bowling Green*

* - Originally had Vanderbilt
This is chalk so far except for Bowling Green.

March Madness 2007 edition IV

Well, lets see, I got 10 of the sweet sixteen. Not good, a c+ average. Unfortunately, I lost one of my final four teams (Texas). Still, I have a chance to do well since 5 of my great 8 teams are still in the mix (grrr, Louisville).

For this next round I have the following picks:

2007 NCAA 3rd Round

Midwest	West	East	South
Florida	Kansas	N. Carolina **	Ohio St.
Oregon *	Pittsburgh	Georgetown	Tx A & M ***

* - not my original (notre dame was supposed to be here).
** - Freaking Texas
*** - Louisville had this game, but you know I am impressed by Law IV.

Should be some good games tonight.

Women BB march madness I

Well, here are the womens picks for the first round. Not going to go into a lot of background right now. Will post later hopefully. On to the picks:

2007 NCAA Womens First Round

Dallas	Dayton	Fresno	Greensboro
UNC	Tennesse	UCONN	Duke
GW	Pittsburgh	New Mex.	Temple.
Tx. A & M	Mid Tenn	Baylor	Mich. Stat
Washington	Ohio St	N.C. State	Rutgers
Georgia	Marquette	Xavier	Louisville
Depaul	Oklahoma	LSU	Arizona St.
Purdue	TCU	Florida St..	Bowling Green
Notre Dame	Maryland	Stanford	Vanderbilt

more later sometime today, right now I have to get some sleep.

March Madness 2007 edition III

Well, so much for my Razorbacks. Geez it sucks being a razorback backer right now. 4 straight losses in the NCAA's. Time to fire Stan Heath. Still, I did go 23 - 9 first day, which obviously won't get me any big time prizes but hey what are you going to do right. So, on to the 2nd round which leads to the sweet sixteen.

The good news about my misses only one did I have going further (thanks ND). Heres the 2nd round picks:

2007 NCAA 2nd Round

Midwest	West	East	South
Florida	Kansas	N. Carolina	Ohio St.
Maryland	So. Illinois	Texas	Tennessee
Oregon *	Pittsburgh	Vanderbilt	Louisville
Wisconsin	Indiana	Georgetown	Memphis

Again not a lot of upsets, will post more today about why I picked who I picked.

* - Had ND in bracket, So Oregon is the blog pick. Would love to see Winthrop move on though. Not sure how much will blog today, you might not have heard but we got around 10 of snow and sleet etc last 24 hours. Even with a blower my back is killing just from manhandling that piece of crap. Oh, well! See you later with the Womens picks.

#38 Strikes Again

Well, Curt has given the low down on his contract and why he became a blowhard (sarcasm is again rampant). Go check it out at 38 pitches. You might be surprised!

As for my feelings on this matter you can find them here, here, and here. I still think we are looking at him moving on after this year. I think the Sox believe that they can get him for 11 million but the market will have him in the 16 - 18 million range. Be honest, would you give your home team a 33% or greater discount?

As for some of the comments on his post people get real!

• Mpalma - have you ever heard of IRONY?
• kazztawdal - Maybe you missed it but in an age where Vasquez and Meche are getting over 11 mil a year the 13 million he offered is a steal. Pay cut, Pay cut. Get a clue.
• sigmapijiggy - Have you ever heard of leverage, he already said he was willing to do a contract this year for 13 million next year (what did RJ get coming off Back Surgery?) and now you want him to beg?
• goldsteingonewild - Atta boy, at last somebody shows some sense.
• jkey - you started off well but your last point misses the mark. ITS CALLED RESPECT and yes ego plays a part, because EGO helps them to be as good as they are, I feel like Robin Williams in one of his movies "ding, thanks for playing".
• strike00 - have you even looked at the better pitchers on the market for 2008? DING
• Tim Daloisio - another atta boy!
• soxsweepagain - you may have missed it but he said if you want the hometown discount then sign me by the end of spring training 07. DING
• ego221 - you came close but I have to give you a 1/2 DING

Still all in all a good post by the Shill.

March Madness 2007 - Day 1 mid day recap

Ok so we have had a few games played (7 of the 8 day games) and I have some thoughts:

1) Texas Tech vs BC game was closer than it looked, but BC was able to pull away due to Tech being totally inept on defense and on the offensive ends.

2) ORU played tough 1st half but then let Washington St. start the second half red hot. No miracles for Bob.

3) I think Bill Simmons was right, a young Maryland team would have played a better over all game if they had been facing a uniform that they respected. Hard to believe that Davidson had an 8 point lead at one time in the 1st half.

4) Best game was the ODU vs Butler game, don't let that double digit fool you, it was close until Butler exerted itself late in the second half. ODU led with 12:22 remaining when Butler went on a 17 - 0 run. ODU kept on getting it back into single digits but couldn't sustain their energy.

5) So far have winners with Butler, Maryland, Louisville, Texas A & M, Georgetown and Vanderbilt is currently winning by 25.

6) Only losses are Texas Tech and ORU. So, so far, so good.

Chow, time to go Chow.

March Madness 2007 edition IIa

Well, we are settled in on the couch and watching day 1 of the greatest 2 days in sports. Am so glad I took the afternoon and tomorrow off from the day job. So far it looks like the games are off to a rousing start with BC leading Texas Tech at the half and Maryland up by one over Davidson at the half (Davidson had a 8 point lead once). Two nail biters and one blow out with Louisville absoutely hammering Stanford (who I thought should have been excluded from the dance).

Promised some thoughts about my picks so here we go:

1) Toughest bracket from an RPI standpoint is the West - if you look at the RPI picking the lowest ones to win their game in the first round all eight total 110 points with the highest being a 29 rating. (Midwest - 130, South - 168, and the East - 195). Tell me again how Florida is the number one seed in the tournament?

2) Personally I thought Syracuse got jobbed - Stanford should not be in with an RPI of 63 (remember there are only 34 at large seeds with 25 going to non power conferences). In my opinion (humble), you have to have an RPI below 50 to be even considered for an at large berth.

3) Xavier got an at large are you kidding me???

4) I think there are at least 10 teams with final four chops and it could easily be one of the best tournaments ever.

5) Arkansas is my number one pick to be the 12 over 5. Lunardi had Arkansas as a solid 11 seed and USC as an 8 seed.

6) I picked Texas Tech over BC becuase I really think BC is a one man team and because I like Bob Knight over Skinner.

7) Georgia Tech may be a sexy pick, but their coach is like 6 and 5 in the tournament with 5 of those wins being in one tournament (the 2004 when UCONN won the title by beating Tech). Sorry, just don't think they have the chops to be a furious UNLV team who has a 10 RPI. Lunardi had UNLV as a solid 4 seed with Tech being a 9 seed.

8) ORU is a good pick in the first round due to having two very good players and personally (here comes the east coast bias) I think the PAC 10 is way overrated.

9) I hope you didn't pick all of the #1's to make the final four because it has never happened.

10) My final 4 is Kansas (by far the shakiest), Florida, Texas and Ohio St. with Kansas cutting down the nets by beating Texas.

Good luck with the brackets and we will see you later.

March Madness 2007 edition II

Well, today is the first day of the 2007 NCAA tournament and I can hardly wait. The number crunching is over, the hours spent looking at common opponents and who beat who are over and done with. It is now time for 64 teams to hit the courts over the next 2 days and decide who moves on and who goes back to school to finish out the semester.

For the last 2 days we here at PLLS have been comparing RPI's, common opponents, who's hurt, who's not and have finally made our picks (ed- who you kidding? I saw the darts). I hope you have made yours and are ready for some good games, some heartbreakers and of course the blow outs. Enough of the blathering though here are my picks for the first round:

2007 NCAA First Round

Midwest	West	East	South
Florida	Kansas	N. Carolina	Ohio St.
Arizona	Kentucky	Marquette	BYU
Butler	Illinois	Arkansas	Tennessee
Maryland	So. Illinois	Texas	Virginia
Notre Dame	Duke	Vanderbilt	Louisville
Oregon	Pittsburgh	Oral Roberts	Texas A & M
UNLV	Indiana	Texas Tech.	Nevada
Wisconsin	UCLA	Georgetown	Memphis

Not a lot of upsets, will post more today about why I picked who I picked.

March Madness 2007 edition I

Well, the brackets are out and we have only tournament winners as the #1 seed. Most surprising omission seems to be Syracuse, I really thought that one win in the Big East tournament would cinch their spot in the tournament, Drexel also seems to have a good beef about being excluded.

Dicky V. is working on his Packer impressions this year. Arkansas may not be the best team in the SEC but they have a good resume this year. Right now they are 35th in the RPI, went 5 and 4 against the top 50 teams, 11 and 10 against teams in the top 100. SOS was 15th and they went 6 and 4 down the stretch. My razorbacks may not be a final four contender, but they can beat USC which would be a change from the last 3 years. Go Hogssssss.

SEC Tourney

Arkansas vs Florida - Its simple, the Razorbacks need to win or its bubble time. Personally, I think they should be in already since they have an RPI in the 30's with the Strength of Schedule being in the 10's. I can remember when 20+ wins would almost guarantee a berth in the tourney for the backs, but in the 30+ schedule of all teams now, that is just not necessarily true anymore. 3.40 left in the 1st half and the gators lead by 3.


Meanwhile in the now I am broke again category we picked up the new car.



<<---Front Side

Passenger Side --->>>

#38 strikes again

Lots of traffic being generated at various sites about #38. He started a blog (omg) the outrage, doesn't he get it that we just want him to shut up (sarcasm is rampant). I think its a good thing. Whether he posts once a week or every day doesn't matter to me, what matters is that he is putting it on the line between the lines and now in a place that allows people like me to see the true Curt. So, far I like it and have added it to the blog roll. Good luck Curt and don't worry about the trolls. Make sure you check out comment #70 on his spring training post. As a former catcher I am always interested in how the two who are involved on every pitch interact (I hated when my pitcher shook me off). Keep up the good work Curt and make sure you stop by and say hello to #38.

As for what is happening here at PLLS HQ, well, the wife and I have been looking at some new cars. So far it looks like this will be the new wheels. Have a good night while I go beat my credit union up for some more money.

Previews for 2007

Via Baseball Musings a pretty good look at the 2007 season at ArmChairGM. Stop by and take a look at the projections.

Update: Also found at arm chair is this preview.

Is 13 million too much?

Well, there has been a lot of talk about Schilling on WEEI lately. Most of the talk seems to be how Curt faded down the stretch / second half of the year as to why the Sox have decided to not offer him an extension at this time. The question then becomes did Curt fade down the stretch? If he did fade, is there a reason for this fade? Does this mean that Curt is finished, or not worth 13 million for the 2008 year? More importanlty, how would or should we determine the value of Curt for last year and in the future?

First lets take a look at the numbers for #38. Last year overall Curt was 15 and 7 with a 3.97 ERA in 31 starts. His whip was a pretty decent 1.22 6th in the AL and 13th overall. His Win total was tied for 14th in the AL and 20th overall. The 3.97 ERA was the 13th best in the AL for starters and 28th overall. His 204 innings pitched was tied for 15th in the AL and 37th overall. The 31 starts placed him tied for 25th in the AL and tied for 56th overall. His 183 k's was the 5th best in the AL and 12th best overall. The 19 Quality starts were tied for 10th and 24th overall. His ratio of K's to BB's was the best overall (6.54). The k/9 ratio of 8.07 was the 5th best and 14th best.

All and all decent numbers for the Schill for the year but what about his fade at the end of the year. There are two ways to approach this, 1) before and after the All star break or first 81 games and last 81 games.

Schilling Stats before All Star game

League	Wins	GS	ERA	IP	WHIP	K's	K / BB	K /9	W pct
AL	T 4	T 1	71 *	4	35 *	3 *	5 *	59 *	T 41 *
Overall	T 6	T 2	153 *	7	56 *	81 *	7 *	134 *	79 *
Value	10	19	3.60	127.1	1.09	115	7.67	8.13	.77

* includes relievers

Schilling Stats after All Star game

League	Wins	GS	ERA	IP	WHIP	K's	K / BB	K /9	W pct
AL	T 27	T 48	126 *	T 38	121 *	T 17 *	15 *	63 *	T 87 *
Overall	T 65	T 100	273 *	T 86	261 *	T 39 *	31 *	152 *	T 165 *
Value	5	12	4.58	76.2	1.42	68	5.23	7.98	.556

* includes relievers

Yep, looking at these numbers it is obvious that he had a significant decline in the second half.
Now the question appears to be is there a reason for this decline.

Lets look at who he faced in the first half of the season: Texas, Baltimore (3), Seattle, Tampa Bay (4), Cleveland, Yankees (3), Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Mets, and the White Sox. 19 starts against 12 teams. 8 of these 19 starts were against teams that were 500 or greater last year. His record against these teams were 3 and 1. That is pretty good record against winning teams and a better record against the losers.

The second half he faced Oakland (3), Texas, Anaheim, Tampa Bay (2), KC, Detroit, Yankees, Seattle and Minnesota in his 12 starts. That's 9 teams total and only 4 of the teams had losing records. Of the 12 starts 7 were against winning teams. His record against the winning teams was 2 and 2.

Realistically, shouldn't we expect him to do worse the second half? It should be noted that almost 1/3 of his starts in the first half were ND's. The bullpen also blew 2 games in the first half and 2 games in the second half. If the pen had not failed him the second half his record would have been 7 and 4 and no one would be talking about a fade in the second half.

Lets compare his winning percentage to the team percentage:

1st half team went 53 - 33 for a .612, his percentage was .769
2nd half team went 33 - 43 for a .434, his percentage was .556

Both halves he exceeded the team percentage by a significant margin.

I think 13 million extension would have been perfect for Schilling. If you were worried about age, injury etc. you could have built that into his contract. In my opinion not tendering him an offer was horses***. Here's hoping he goes 22 and 4 and tells Larry to kiss his a** goodbye at the end of the year.

Schilling Links

Update: Cursed To First has the SOSH post by Schilling posted. Worth a good read (original thread is here.)

Thought that I would add some of the Schilling links in one spot from the usual sources. First off we have Bradford's take here and here, then the Herald's take and last but not least the globe's takes here, here, and here.

As for me I am now settling into the good-bye tour of Schilling. Everybody is accusing him of being a jackass for deciding to go ahead and play one more year as if none of them ever changed their minds about something, but the plain fact is that next year he will be no worse than the #3 starter for this club and when people like Meche are getting 11 million plus then 13 million is a steal. What I am hoping for is that Curt wins his first 8 or so wins and when Theo and them come around saying hey, about that contract do you want to talk, he laughs and walks away. As for the pin stripes, ain't ever going to happen, the Mets maybe, but the Yankees? Not a chance.

I have also added a new site to the Freaking Links, Red Sox 24/7. It appears to be a solid site and I look forward to reading them this year, so stop by and tell them the peace brigade sent you.

Am working on doing a review of his work last year, but as usual, I have pulled out so much information that I am trying to get my thoughts wrapped around his work last year, one quick thing I noticed though was that almost half of his no decisions had blown saves, would Theo and them have been hesitating if Schilling had won 19 games last year?

Blog Roll Updates

Well, I just finished updating and arranging the blog links in the side bar. Basically, I moved all of the sports related up behind the Dilbert Blog. The man with the funny tie will always be number one and of course I moved the Joy of Sox up since that is a blog that has always supported me. Just call it my version of Spring Cleaning here at Peace, Love and Sox.

Bradford on baseball is looking like a good place to start this year on the Sox front, I like the way he is trying to answer questions placed in his comments. The rest of the crew of blogs that I link are as always on top of their game, let us hope that the Sox will follow suit this year.

Spring 2007

Well, its good to see that the team has reported to sunny Florida and is ready to take on the world of photographers as it gets ready for the 2007 season. Of course this being the Red Sox the circus has already started.

1) we have the local media in arms about the Matsuzaka treatment (see Shaughnessy, Callahan etal).
2) WEEI has already dedicated time to the Manny situation (see the Big Show).
3) Tito has already had to tell the media to shut up (see publicist / Tavarez).
4) The blogs and media has decided that Schilling is an overweight jerk who should just shut up and pitch (see boston dirt dogs).
5) Papelbon will be the closer for 2007 season (see boston.com blog)

Yep its spring and all things are eternal.

First off I agree with Glenn Ordway, if Matsuzuka goes 16 and 11 with a 5.01 ERA that is not a disappointment. The Japanese league is at best on a par with the National League, but is more likely below the National and at worst on a par with the AAA leagues. To expect Matsuzaka to be better than Beckett in his first year in the AL east is not rational. Oh, lets not forget one other thing, he is not a 100 million dollar pitcher, do not include the posting fee with his salary when you talk about this young pitcher.

The Manny not showing up til 1 of March falls into the "are we surprised category". I'll just grind my teeth about the Manny fawning and will wish that Jim Rice could impart some DNA to this future Hall of Famer.

Tito will always protect his players in the press, end of story.

Schilling may be overweight and opinionated, but when he takes the ball in 2007 he will give this team everything he has and always will be one of the top pitchers in this league. Sign him to a one year extension with an option for 2009 and be done with this guy until the season starts.

Papelbon may end up being the closer, but that is up to the Doctors. Personally, I say trot him out there every five days and mark a W in the record.

Stealing from Ian at Brownie points I make the following predictions:

How many games will the Red Sox win this year? 95
How many postseason games will the Red Sox win this year? 6
How many games will Matsuzaka win this year? 16
Who will lead the Red Sox in wins this year? Schilling
Who will lead the Red Sox in saves this year? Pinero
How many games will J.D. Drew play this year? 134
How many homers will David Ortiz hit this year? 44
Who will win the American League MVP? A-Rod
Who will win the National League MVP? Howard
Who will win the American League Cy Young Award? Kazmir
Who will win the National League Cy Young Award? Lowe
Who will win the AL East? Yankees
Who will win the AL Central? Tigers
Who will win the AL West? Angels
Who will win the AL wild card? Red Sox
Who will win the NL East? Mets
Who will win the NL Central? Cardinals
Who will win the NL West? Dodgers
Who will win the NL Wild Card? Phillies
Who will win the AL pennant? Yankees
Who will win the NL pennant? Mets
Who will win the World Series? Mets

Super Bowl XLI

Well, the game is almost here. I just want a good game or a Colt blow out so that there is no agnst. After all of the Manning stories this week, if you didn't hate him before you probably do now. Still, as I have stated before, I hope he gets the monkey off his back today. One Marino career in my lifetime is quite enough thank you.

3 weeks

Q: Where you been you sluggard?

A: Well, being the complete nerd that I am, I decided to break out the old playstation and update the teams to see how 2007 might look from a gaming stand point. So, far the results have been mixed but after countless games I show the Sox winning as few as 82 games (Varitek and Lowell out for over 1/2 of the season) to as many as 103 games (no significant injuries).

Q: So what do you think of the Schilling situation?

A: This is a no brainer and as I stated on Seths blog, at the forum and other venues just give him the money. I don't think that Curt will have any problem with injury clauses and if you can give a mutual option to Timmy then you can certainly give one to Curt and yes I still remember the bloody sock.

Q: Are you happy to see the Colts in the Super Bowl?

A: Not sure if you noticed but I didn't make picks (on the blog anyway) on the conference championship games (though I thought the snow would do in the Saints, see Tampa Bay - history) and figured the Patriots - Colts game would be a toss up. If the Cowboys aren't in it I usually root for players and I like Peyton and I really don't want to see another Marino like career for any QB. What I don't understand is those Pats fans who are rooting against the Colts. It seems to me like you would want the Colts to win so that you could say, see if we had just beaten them we would be celebrating our 4th championship.

Thats all for now. Will continue to run sims and will let you know when we are done.

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made

With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

2007 NFL playoffs RD 2

Well, I went 2 and 1 last week so again am probably not your best prognosticator to be using as a bettor. Still, I am better than nothing, so here goes:

Colts at Ravens - hmm, excellent defense goes up against prolific offense. Normally you would go with the defense but this time I look for Peyton to go ballistic against this team after his meltdown against the Chiefs last week. Colts 35 - Ravens 17.

Seahawks at Bears - Which Grossman will show up, the 150+ QB rating or the 1.0 passer? Can the Bears defense handle the Seahawks offense? Look for the middle of the road Grossman to show up and watch the Seahawks (who shouldn't be here) melt in the snow. Bears 24 (1 defensive TD) - Seahawks 7.

Eagles at Saints - The city of brotherly love (just ask Santa) vs the big easy. Hmmm, its freaking Garcia at quarterback for the Eagles. Saints 28 - Eagles 17.

Patriots at Chargers - You've heard all the reasons for picking the Pats, but I'll repeat a few here:

Brady vs the Kid
12 - 2 vs 5 - 12 for the coaches
Chargers defense sucks
Pats defense is good
Its the chokemeister Schottenheimer vs the genius
The best defensive player of the Chargers is drug made

With all of these things going against them why would anyone pick the Chargers how about this man, who just happens to be very good. Chargers in a wild one 38 - 35

HOF III - Rice

Well, was working on this before the hall of fame ballots came out. Had saved it to my draft files because I was getting blurry eyed from looking at the numbers. My problem was that I kept on noticing when I was looking at Jim's career that another Red Sox player kept popping up in the equation, a person who is not considered a HOFer. As I sat on this news I found a post about this individual and Mr. Rice. Since he says it better than I could possibly do I suggest you go there and see why he will probably not be in the hall of fame. This would be the classic slippery slope in my opinion.

This time we are going to look at the reasons why Jim Rice should be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Previous posts HOF I (David Wells) and HOF II (Curt Schilling).

As usual we start our post by looking at Rice's comparable players list:

1. Orlando Cepeda (HOFer)
2. Andres Galarraga
3. Ellis Burks
4. Duke Snider (HOFer)
5. Joe Carter - possible
6. Dave Parker
7. Billy Williams (HOFer)
8. Luis Gonzalez
9. Willie Stargell (HOFer)
10. Chili Davis

4 HOFers and one possible, not a bad beginning to promote his inclusion into the hall. So on to the second part of this advocacy.

Mr. Rice's career started with 24 games in 1974 and ended with 56 games in 1989. 16 years he played for the Sox playing in 1 World Series (he missed the 75 series due to injury). His first full year with the Sox was in 1975 where he played in 144 games batting .309 with 22 HR's and 102 RBI's and scored 92 runs. I've always wondered what might have been in that 75 series if Rice hadn't been hurt.

If we look at the 14 full seasons that he played we see that he started 1991 games playing in 2009. His batting average was an even .300, OBA of .354, Slugging of .507, OPS of .862 hitting 378 Home runs, scoring 1,221 runs and knocking in 1,410 runs.

2007 NFL playoffs RD 1

Hmmm, went 15 - 17 in the last two weeks of the season (125 - 131 overall), so my picks are definitely not something to take to the bank. The question is will the success of the underdogs in the regular season continue in the playoffs?

Heres my picks anyway:

• Colts beat the Chiefs 35 - 31.
• Cowboys vs Seahawks - not gonna do it, I can't even pull a castanza here. I have picked for the Cowboys and lost, picked against and lost this year. I just can't figure out my favorite team. Go Cowboys but I refuse to get off the fence on this game.
• Patriots beat the Jets 21 - 18.
• Giants beat the Eagles - 24 - 17 (give me a break Garcia?)

Have a good weekend.

HOF II - Schilling

The second look at how present or former Red Sox players stand as far as HOF possibilities. This time we are going to look at #38. HOF I is found here.

First lets look at comparable players:
Kevin Brown - Not a HOFer
Bob Welch - Not a HOFer
Orel Hershiser - Not a HOFer
Dazzy Vance - HOF
Mike Mussina - Possible HOF
David Cone - Not a HOFer
Milt Pappas - Not a HOFer
Lew Burdette - Not a HOFer
Don Drysdale - HOF
John Smoltz - Definite HOF

Out of ten you have 2 in the hall, 1 will be in the Hall and a possible Hall of Famer. Top of the line and he is off to a good start. So lets look at other criteria.

As I have said before, 10 year and 5 year comparisons can show some good stats to kick around in the bar. Lets look at his best ten year period:

1997 - 2006

Won 155 - lost 86 for a .643 % in 2121+ innings with a 3.41 ERA. The Top 10 in wins during that time period were:

1. Randy Johnson - 176 and 83 in 2277+ innings with a 3.01 ERA.
2. Greg Maddux - 168 and 99 in 2250+ innings with a 3.28 ERA
3. Pedro - 158 and 61 in 1974+ innings with a 2.61 ERA
4. Clemens - 156 and 67 in 2041+ innings with a 3.17 ERA
5. Schilling
6. Pettitte - 153 and 87 in 1916+ innings with a 3.78 ERA
7. Glavine - 151 and 99 in 2193+ innings with a 3.47 ERA
8. Mussina - 149 and 93 in 2072+ innings with a 3.67 ERA
9. Moyer - 144 and 87 in 2073+ innings with a 4.00 ERA
10. Bartolo Colon - 140 and 97 in 1876 innings with a 3.98 ERA

Curt is 5th in wins during that period, 7th in win % (minimum 100 wins), 7th in shut outs (minimum 100 wins), 5th in innings pitched (minimum 100 wins), 3rd in K's (minimum 100 wins), 6th in ERA and 3rd in K/9 (minimum 100 wins).

Look at the 4 people ahead of him in wins during those ten years. Each one is a certain HOF, Schilling is probably the demarcation line during that time period. Lets now look at his best 5 year period:

1998-2002

Schillings numbers are 89 wins 44 losses in 1175+ innings with a 3.33 ERA and a .656 Winning percentage. The top 10 in wins during that time were:

1. Randy Johnson - 100 and 38 in 1274+innings with a 2.63 ERA.
2. Greg Maddux - 89 and 44 in 1152 innings with a 2.88 ERA.
3. Tom Glavine - 89 and 44 in 1148+ innings with a 3.31 ERA.
4. Pedro - 87 and 24 in 980 innings with a 2.27 ERA.
5. Curt
6. Bartolo Colon - 81 and 42 in 1052+ innings with a 3.69 ERA.
7. Roger Clemens - 80 and 33 in 1027 innings with a 3.70 ERA.
8. David Wells - 79 and 36 in 982+ innings with a 4.10 ERA.
9. Aaron Sele - 77 and 44 in 1004+ innings with a 4.37 ERA.
10. Mussina - 77 and 53 in 1091+ innings with a 3.59 ERA.

Looking at this you see in order HOFer, HOFer, possible HOFer (most likely will win 300 games), Curt, not a HOFer, HOFer, not a HOFer, not a HOFer and a possible HOFer. 4 future inductees and 2 possible inductees. This is again a good thing for Curt's chances. Further more he is tied for sixth in Shut outs, 3rd in K's, 6th in ERA and 3rd in K's per 9. All of this makes it a good possibility that he will be inducted into the Hall.

Career wise lets look at the leader boards from 1997 to 2004 made the All Star game. In 2001 and 2002 #10 in MVP voting. In 1997 #4 in Cy Young voting and in 2001, 2002 and 2004 2nd in Cy Young. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 of era 8 of the 9 years (2000 only year not). League wins lead in 2001 and 2004, was second in 2002 and 5th in 1997. From 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 in WHIP, and led in 1992 and was 6th in 2006. Presently is 3rd among active players and 40th all time. In 1993, 1997 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top 10 in BB's / 9 IP leading in 2002 and 2006. K's / 9IP in 1993, 1996 - 1999, 2001 - 2004 and 2006 was in the top ten and career is 12th all time. He has 3015 K's all time which is 4th among active pitchers and 14th all time. K's to walks was 5th in 1993 and from 1996 - 2004 was in the top 10 leading in the years 2001 - 2004 and led in 2006 and is 2 all time. Adjusted ERA is 12th active and 48th all time.

Baseball reference has a black-ink test which has Curt's rating at 42 (average HOF is 40), the gray-ink test where he has a rating of 204 (average HOF is 185), HOF Standards has a rating of 46 (average HOF is 50) and HOF monitor rating of 167 (Likely HOFer is >100). His overall rank in these categories is 33rd, 34th, 48th and 36th.

So, what does this all mean? A very close call on the HOF but should make it. What will push him over the top? How about these facts - the 2001 World series where he started 3 games with a 1 - 0 record, pitching 21+ innings with 26 K's, 2 BB's and a sparkling 1.69 ERA to share MVP with Randy Johnson. 2004 ALCS bloody sock game (6) where he went 7 innings giving up 1 ER on a HR with 4 k's and no BB's. These are the type of games that stick in voters minds, coming up big on the big stage can take a player from possible to Hall of fame stature.

Overall in the playoffs Curt is 8 and 2 in 15 games with a sparkling 2.06 ERA. He struck out 104 batters and only walked 22 in those games in 109+ innings. That is the quintessential definition of big game player.

2007 Jan 1 Bowl Games

While we wait patiently for the game of the day (hint it stars a RB by the name of McFadden) , figured that I would give you my picks of today's bowls.

First in the Outback I have Tennessee whipping Penn State. SEC vs Big 10, I'll go with the stronger conference.

Cotton bowl we have Auburn vs Nebraska, and while Nebraska has improved over the last 2 years I think that Auburn is the much better team. The only worry is that Auburn tends to lose these types of games. Still, Auburn beats Nebraska.

Gator bowl has West Virginia vs Georgia Tech. Tech has improved but get real, the ACC has become an embarrassment when it comes to football. West Virginia continues to make the Big East look good by running over the rambling wreck.

Arkansas vs Wisconsin in the Capitol one bowl (didn't this use to be the tangerine bowl?) - toss up but my heart says go hogs and whips the badgers proving that the Big Ten is really a two team conference.

Rose bowl - USC goes out and whips Michigan.

Boise State crashed the BSC series this year by getting an invite to the Fiesta bowl and that is good for them, but OU wants to prove that if not for a ridiculous call at the end of the Oregon game they would be playing Ohio State. I hope it is close but I expect OU to win.