Thursday, April 05, 2007

MLB 07 - Game 3

Today is the day, the Dice Man makes his debut against the KC Royals. Will have to listen to this one on the radio as will be out and about trying to make a living (hey, baby needs a new pair of shoes).

Boston 1/2 game back behind the Yankees tied with Toronto. Series is tied at 1.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

ESPN.Coms preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com - Scouting Report:

Red Sox: After months of anticipation, Matsuzaka finally makes his official
debut in a Red Sox uniform. At least during Spring Training, he appeared ready
to live up to his lofty billing. Matsuzaka was a legend in Japan during his
eight-year career with the Seibu Lions. He went 108-60 with a 2.95 ERA while
producing 1,355 strikeouts. Matsuzaka also led Japan to victory in the Inaugural
World Baseball Classic. En route to the MVP award, Matsuzaka went 3-0 with a
1.38 ERA.

Royals: Greinke, a 2002 first-round pick, spent most of last season with
Double-A Wichita, where he went 8-3 with a 4.34 ERA in 18 games. He was a
September callup after the Texas League playoffs and made three relief
appearances. Greinke had a spectacular Spring Training to earn a rotation slot.

So lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus Greinke.
Starting 9 vs Greinke

J Lugo52010110
K Youkilis00000000
D Ortiz41100100
M Ramirez30000010
J.D. Drew32000000
M Lowell00000000
J Varitek31001101
C. Crisp215110102
D Pedroia00000000

Not a lot of history here but Lugo and Drew own this guy. Look for the top of the order to come out and set the tone for the rest of the lineup.

Greinke vs the Sox
1010795123 6.43

Only the one start and it was a loss.

So, what do I expect to see? Look for Matsuzaka to struggle with walks. I know he is supposed to be a control pitcher, but the strike zone is smaller than he is used to seeing in the Nippon leagues. I think he is another nibbler, similar to Clement but with better stuff. If he goes 6 and only throws 110 pitches or less I will be very surprised. As for Greinke, I expect the Sox to hit him hard and often.

Update: guess ther won't be any press pass so removed link.


MikeT9485 said...

"Lugo and Drew own this guy."

A little bit of wishful thinking there? Drew's only seen him three times, which isn't really enough to claim he owns him. Lugo is a bit better with 5 ABs, but I would only claim he "owns" Greinke if he were 4 or 5 for 5.

Crisp's numbers aren't that great, and there's a lot there. 238 with no walks and only 2 extra base hits... Coco might have to wait for Texas for his first hit of the season.

s1c said...

Hmm, what did Lugo and Drew do against this guy today? Drew 1 - 3 (a double), Lugo 2 - 4. So after today Lugo is 4 for 9 and drew is 3 for Six. I still say they own him. As for Crisp, any one hitting less than 260 is owned by the pitcher, which is why I didn't include him.