MLB 07 - Game 14

Thursday, April 19 Rogers Centre 12:37 PM ET

Julian Tavarez, RHP (0-1, 9.00) Red Sox (8-5) @ Roy Halladay, RHP (2-0, 2.35) Blue Jays (8-6)

Boston 1/2 game ahead of Toronto, 1 game ahead of Baltimore and NYY. Rubber game of 3 game series.

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Tavarez will be making his first start in 12 days when he finally gets the ball in the series finale against the Blue Jays. Tavarez lost his only start this season on April 7, when he allowed six hits and four runs in four innings. Command was an issue as he walked five while striking out three in his 2007 debut as Boston?s fifth starter. Tavarez has twice had his second start pushed back, with Red Sox rainouts on April 12 and again on Sunday the reason.

Blue Jays: Halladay has been his usual dominant self to start the 2007 season. On Friday, he out dueled Tigers ace Jeremy Bonderman to earn his second win of the season. The former Cy Young Award winner allowed only one run on six hits over 10 innings of work against the Tigers. Halladay is 8-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 27 appearances versus the Red Sox.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

Player	AB	Hits	2b	3b	HR's	RBI	BB's	K's	BA
J. Lugo	31	6	0	0	1	2	2	5	.194
K. Youkilis	16	4	0	0	0	0	4	3	.250
D. Ortiz	58	16	4	0	5	15	2	9	.276
M. Ramirez	61	17	3	0	3	9	5	15	.279
J.D. Drew	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
M. Lowell	8	3	0	0	1	4	1	0	.375
J. Varitek	47	13	4	0	1	9	6	11	.277
C. Crisp	14	4	0	0	1	1	0	1	.286
D. Pedroia	3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
Totals	238	63	11	0	12	40	20	44	.265

The typical subs and I don't think they will be playing in this game have 26 at bats against Halladay and only have 6 more hits and 7 more RBI's. They do add in the slugging department. Are you going to add Pena? He is 2 for 4 or Hinske who is 1 for 3? The average is good enough that they should be scoring. For what its worth, Ortiz, Varitek and Manny combined are 46 /146 with 9 HR's, 11 doubles, 33 Rbi's and have .277 BA with a .355 Oba and have a slugging of .506 against Halladay. This might be a good time to put Varitek in the 6 slot behind Drew. Don't be surprised if you see Wily Mo in there for Manny also.

Historical Pitching lines

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Halladay	24	8	6	0	163	171	75	17	39	124	4.14
Tavarez	3	1	1	0	14 1/3	19	11	2	7	5	6.91

Both of Tavarez and Halladay figures are as starters against these teams.

Overall they have the following numbers:

Pitcher	GS	W	L	Sho	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA
Halladay	24	8	7	0	168 1/3	185	86	17	44	127	4.60
Tavarez	3	2	2	0	33 1/3	37	13	3	13	13	3.51

As a starter Tavarez had a terrible outing against the Jays in 1993. If you take that game out of the mix Tavarez has a sparkling 3.00 ERA in 12 innings. If he can duplicate his start from 9/22/2006 in the Rogers center (complete game with 1 ER), the team will be in good shape.

Halladay is one of the best pitchers out there. Has a good record against the Sox and is definitely an ace of the Jays staff. Question is whether Tavarez can do like he did last year against the Jays and keep the ball in the infield. I really think the team has a chance in this game if Tavares goes out and gives us 6 solid innings.

Interesting that while Halladay is 97 and 48 overall with a 3.60 ERA that the Sox would have the success that they have had against him.

Other bits of useless trivia - Sox have had 8 straight games where they have allowed 3 or fewer runs. This is the most since they had an 11 game stretch from 4/12 - 4/25, 1988. They have had one seven game stretch with 3 or fewer from 5/11 - 5/19, 1994.

The starters have earned every decision this year. The last time that the starters had decisions in the first 13 games or more was in 1918. That year the first 39 games of the season the starters had the decisions.

The last non-quality start by a starter was Tavarez's start on 4/17/2007 in Texas.