Sunday, April 01, 2007

MLB 07 - Game 1

Monday at @ 4:10 the first pitch of the Red Sox season will be thrown by a Mr. Gil Meche to Mr. Julio Lugo in Kansas City, Mo. of the USA. With that pitch the hot stove season / off season will be done and another year of hopes and dreams will have commenced. As I have said before, I think this will be a very good year for the Red Sox. Off season acquistions of the aforementioned Lugo, J.D. Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka (yo Johnny - I see your number is now in use you idiot) and others has pushed the payroll to unseen level of 160 million.

Can the Sox win the division? Yes! Will they? Probably not, but it should be one heck of a ride this year.

Of course since this is a post about game 1 and since I am the stat geek of all stat geeks I have crunched the numbers and came up with the usual inane statistical crap that I always dig up and provide for you to peruse in preparation of game 1 of 162 games to be played this year.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference. Other links will be added as they are found, so lets look at the numbers of our projected starting 9 versus that master of pitchery (sarcasm is rampant), Gil Meche.

UPDATE:'s preview is here.
Yahoo Sports is here.
ESPN's recap will be here.
(from - This is the fifth straight time and the 11th time in the last 12 years that the Red Sox have opened on the road. The Red Sox are 51-54-1 on Opening Day and 30-37-1 in season openers away from Fenway Park.)

J. Lugo70000002
K. Youkilis3
D. Ortiz156004804
M Ramirez185101526
J.D. Drew00000000
M Lowell93100000
J Varitek81000012
C Crisp125101110
D Pedroia00000000

Things that jump out at me - Lugo 0-7, and Varitek is 1 - 8 against Meche. All the others (except for Drew and Pedroia) have more than respectable numbers against the KC ace (god, how it must suck to be a Royals fan right now). Over all, these 7 players have a .321 OBP and .292 BA. So, the players have a good history against him as far as the lumber goes, but what about Meche's numbers vs the Sox? Lets take a look.

631139 1/33719612244.35

This could be worrisome - 3 and 1 vs the Sox in 6 games (last 5 here, here, here, here and here) with 3 of those games being quality starts. Is Meche another freaking Lilly / Lopez?

Lets look at the # 38's numbers:

422031 1/3321645274.6

Of course this includes 3 appearances as a reliever in 2005. Unfortunately if you look at his starts his numbers aren't any better and in some case are even worse.

422028 1/3311534234.76

What is worrisome is that in 2004 he pitched two terrific games (W's) going 9 and 7 innings and allowing only 4 earned runs. In 2005 though - 5 IP, 6 runs and last year 7 1/3 IP with 5 runs.

So, what does this tell us? Things could be very ugly tomorrow.

UPDATE: MLB - Press Pass located here.


Eagle said...

No way in hell that Lugo is better than Renteria. What are the Sox doing? I still can't believe they let him go after one so-so season.

s1c said...

If Orlando hadn't popped off about Renteria money they would have kept him. Still, the Renteria couldn't handle the Boston scene, so its hard to believe he would have ever felt comfortable here. As for Lugo, he's no Renteria but he is better than Alex Gongalez (with the bat any way).

Eagle said...

I don't like Lugo's attitude. I really got turned off him last year when he was begging the Mets to take an interest in him when his team was still in contention.

I don't know the details about Renteria and what he had trouble with in Boston, but he's always struck me as a very good player. Good in the field and good with the bat. I thought he'd be excellent in Boston and was very surprised when he was gone after one year.