Friday, April 27, 2007

Red Sox 07 Game 22

Friday, April 27 Yankee Stadium 7:05 PM ET

Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP (2-2, 4.00) Red Sox (14-7) @ Andy Pettitte, LHP (1-0, 1.78) Yankees (8-11)

Boston is 3 ahead of Jays, 3 1/2 games ahead of Baltimore, 5 1/2 ahead of D Rays and 5 1/2 games up on NYY . 1st game of 3 game series.

ESPN.Com preview should be here.
Yahoo's preview should be here.
The recap after the game will be here.

From MLB.Com Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Matsuzaka felt fortunate to come out with a win in his last start, in which he allowed eight hits and six runs over seven innings. He gets another crack at the Yankees five days later, this time in the Bronx. This will be Matsuzaka's third start on the road, where he is 1-1 with a 2.09 ERA. Matsuzaka has 31 strikeouts and six walks over 27 innings.

Yankees: Pettitte will be pitching on a little extra rest after his scheduled start vs. Toronto on Wednesday was washed out. He got the job done on Friday night in his first start against the Red Sox since 2003, twirling 6 1/3 innings of eight-hit ball. The left-hander lamented just one pitch -- a two-run homer to Jason Varitek -- and felt as though he still had some steam even when he yielded to the bullpen after 100 pitches. Pettitte has left three straight starts with a lead but the bullpen has held just one.

As usual all statistics were found at the day by day database at Baseball Musings and this year at Baseball Reference.

Expected Batters vs opposing starter

J. Lugo114000012.364
K. Youkilis21000010.500
D. Ortiz259301336.360
M. Ramirez62257031855.403
J.D. Drew116102214.545
M. Lowell41000000.250
J. Varitek39151116312.385
Wily Mo83100203.375
D. Pedroia20000000.000
Totals 164641317311432.390

Ortiz, Drew, Varitek, Lugo and Ramirez are a combined 59 / 148 with 7 Hr's, 29 RBI's, 13 BB and 29 K's. Their cumulative BA is .399 with a .635 slugging percentage. Can Pettitte throw another gem in a week?
Historical Pitching lines


In Pettitte's 22 starts he has 16 quality starts and went at least six innings. His last start was on 4/20 and his last appearance was on 4/22 for one inning.

Why we should be worried:
  1. The Yankees have lost six straight games. Monday the Sox faced the Blue Jays on a five game winning streak while the Jays had lost five straight. The sox quickly lost.
  2. The Yankees are closer to being at full strength as Matsui has returned to play off of the DL.
  3. It is hard to beat the Yankees four straight times.
  4. If you read the New York papers this past Monday, it was generally felt that Daisuke can be hit, and hit hard.
  5. The Sox have faced two teams who had losing records (Texas and the Blue Jays) and are one and four in those games.
  6. This will be the eleventh game in eleven days for the Sox, while the Yankees had a rain out yesterday.

Why the Sox will win:

  1. Papi, Manny and Lugo are due to start hitting and the wish to shut up 55,000 people will be an added incentive.
  2. The Yankee bull pen is still being over worked as the Phenom only lasted 4 1/3 innings.
  3. Shame will play a factor. I fully expect that Daisuke will rebound from a horrible outing last time out.
  4. Drew and Big Papi will put one in the upper deck along the right field line.

Other thoughts - against teams who were .500 or better at game time the sox this year are 13 and 3.

The bull pen is once again well rested with Papelbon, Okajima and Donnelly having pitched once in the last two days. They should be sharp and yet well rested for this series.

The bloody Sox issue will be the topic of the New York press but in stead of disrupting the Sox club house it will help make an us vs the world feeling.

Manny is close to busting loose and he likes hitting in the Bronx. Expect a couple of back to backs with Manny being the common factor.

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